Facebook tops Google as most visited site in U.S.

Congratulations to Facebook, the most visited site in 2010. "The social network site edged out Google.com (GOOG.O) with 8.9 percent of all U.S. visits between January and November 2010, while Google.com ranked second with about 7.2 percent of all visits, according to online measurement service Experian Hitwise." Usage across all websites continue to grow as we have become a nation of online users. And no worries for Google. When you consider all its related sites, like You Tube, and add them together,
the Google company leads all.

Happy New Year to all!

New Business Alert - Set Up Home Networking

The Consumer Electronic Show is next week and new announcements are expected. This one by Verizon FIOS seems to echo what Time Warner Cable demonstrated earlier this year at the NCTA Cable Show. "Verizon will debut a home-management service for FiOS next year that will let customers remotely lock or unlock their doors, check video cameras, adjust thermostats and power settings, and control lights -- via a smartphone, PC or FiOS TV widget." So much potential for cable to be the eyes and ears to the home. And a great opportunity for someone to come and offer both sales and installation to the home. While some may be able to connect remote cameras, new thermostats and other equipment, most consumers will prefer to hire someone to install it for them.

Theatrical Film Revenue Down

As the year is near its end, it may be worth noting that movie ticket sales and revenue are down for the year. Was it high ticket prices, a bad economy, or the technological impact of on demand, no word yet, but it would be hard to discount all three from having an impact. Per the numbers, ticket sales are down 12 billion tickets, the lowest number since 1996. Thanks to higher ticket prices, last year was a banner year for sales. This year revenue is below 2009 with 2 days remaining, but still above $10 billion, a healthy amount.

So less people are going to the movies but still paying more. Still they are watching movies, through on demand, DVD, and other means. So likely, the revenue coming to movie studios should be higher given the additional distribution streams selling movie views.

So what were the most financially successful films in 2010? According to The Numbers, Toy Story 3 is number 1, with Avatar close behind. Alice in Wonderland, Iron Man 2, and Twilight Eclipse round out the top 5. Clearly 2010 was the year of sequels, with 3 of the top 5 and 4 of the top 10. Sequels should once again top the list in 2011. And of course 3D also helped with more than half of the top 10 films.

So watch your wallets and choose where you want to watch. 3D is clearly helping to push consumers to the theater. Budgets also cause others to wait till On Demand or DVD to catch up. In either case, the revenue continues to remain strong.

Another Year End, Another Contract Negotiation

The year is almost over and once again a cable company faces another programming contract negotiation. This time it involves Time Warner Cable and Sinclair Broadcasting. "A blackout would affect 33 stations reaching more than 5 million Time Warner Cable customers and block channels such as Fox and ABC in Columbus, Ohio, and CBS in Portland, Maine, Sinclair said." Have we become hardened to such news. Typical stuff. And when it doesn't affect your own particular home, do we even care. Eventually every increase in fees eventually translates to higher cable rates to the home. And with no wall in sight, it looks like these rates will only continue to rise.

The solution, obviously is disruptive change. New technology, new service providers, new sources for content that cause us as consumers to bypass our current platform for a new one. Today, it is called cord cutting. Rates are only rising and consumers must either pay the piper or stop feeding it.

Apple 2011 Plans

Can Google of Microsoft beat Apple? It seems rather than innovate, they copy more to catch up than to lead. For Apple, the future is iPhone for Verizon, the next generation iPad, and new iPhone features. And let us not forget what Apple TV might finally emerge as a real must have product too. "Analysts are of the stern belief that 2011 will further have Apple’s domination in media headlines. Apple iPad 2, a revamped tablet with Apple FaceTime video chat and Verizon iPhone, a CDMA iPhone on the country’s largest cellular service provider Verizon Wireless will be the stars of 2011 for Apple." I know I keep waiting for the Verizon iPhone to be released although I have been told that I should wait till the 4G version is released, possible late in 2011. Till then, perhaps the iPad 2 is on my list.

While Google tries to be original, all Microsoft seems to do is keep releasing updates to its operating system. Their only recent success has been the XBox. But is that enough to continue or do they need some new blood to retake the technology lead. It seems they may have been resting too long on their laurels.

Star Trek Predicts The Future Again

It seems that Gene Roddenberry's Star Trek, made 40 some years ago, continue to predict the future. From disks to store data to mobile phones, the future was in the creator's mind and brought to life on TV. And now another reality emerges with the Universal Translator. On the show, languages spoken were translated into English. Today, what is written can be successfully translated thanks to new apps. "... the brand new TGPhoto app lets you take a picture of foreign words with your smartphone and translates the text for you. Developed by LinguaSys, a translation software company, TGPhoto works with 50 languages, including many that use non-English characters, including Russian, Arabic and several Asian languages." I can only suspect that developers are already working on apps that will record the language spoken and play back translations. Amazing how science fiction is now fact.

HBO, SHO, Starz Verses Netflix

As the year ends, some thoughts go to finances and budgeting for the new year. Certainly, the entertainment budget has been forced to grow, what with rising cable prices, movie tickets, online and more. And being home for the week, it is easy to pay closer attention to how we watch TV. And I must say, it is hard to justify the high cost of cable. As we scroll through the list of on demand movies, some free, some transactional, and some included with our premium subscription, I wonder if it makes sense to continue to buy my premium subscriptions. It seems that most choice exists through Netflix and I could not only drop my premium services and buy a Netflix subscription AND save money at the same time. Perhaps the biggest reason to make the switch is the streaming that Netflix offers. It is just as convenient as on demand. Instant access of movies and TV shows at a lower cost.

Will I go all the way and drop cable completely? Probably not, but it sure looks like a slippery slope. Certainly, it has been the original series on premium that keeps us buying, but if you can wait a year, they will end up on DVD and on Netflix. I haven't made the move yet, but I sure feel the pull.

Sirius Growing

Howard Stern is re-signed and sales are looking up. And so is Sirius' stock price! "Yesterday the satellite radio company announced it has teamed up with BMW to offer an introductory one-year subscription of the "Sirius Everything" package with every new model year 2011 BMW Mini and several of its new motorcycle models." Adding another car line will only help to improve its subscription base, making it easier for folks to sign up for the service. All good news as Sirius enters a new year.

Comcast-NBCU Tell Staffs Deal Won’t Close This Year

The train has been delayed, not cancelled, but delayed as the likely merger between NBCU and Comcast will not be closed by end of the year. Certainly for fiscal year reporting, not clean, but so goes the slow engine of the government. For fired staff members of NBCU, more days of employment, and for others, who knows.

"Despite considerable objection, including from the very vocal Sen. Al Franken, the merger still appears to be on track for approval but it also likely will come with strings attached designed to protect consumers from the consolidation." What will those rules entail and how will they impact the future business of this merged organization remains to be seen. But like we say in business, there is always a work around solution. And whatever the rules may be, solutions will be found to allow the business to move forward. Ahhh, the old loophole trick.

When will the deal close? Some speculation the delay may only be two weeks or less, others through January. Hard to imagine it going on too much longer.

Gaming Revenue - No Movie Required

It doesn't take a movie tie-in to make a game successful. And Activision's Call of Duty seems to hit the spot for gaming enthusiasts. Despite its Adult Rating of M for mature, Call of Duty Black Ops sales has exceeded 1 billion dollars in just 42 days on the market. "That's quicker than the company's previous blockbuster video game, "Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2," which passed the 10-figure plateau in 64 days." It seems that the Call of Duty franchise is doing quite well, even without a movie connection. So will the game inspire a movie? I wouldn't doubt it.

More impressive for CoD - BO is that it is more successful then any movie, except for one. "'Avatar' -- the 3-D blockbuster ... wears the crown as the fastest entertainment property to ring up $1 billion in sales, having done so last year after just 20 days in wide release." Certainly in this depressed economy, entertainment still has its winners.

FCC poised to adopt network neutrality rules

It seems that the support has been found to pass the FCC rules on net neutrality, providing equal streaming access to all. "More than a year after FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski pledged to put in place so-called "network neutrality" regulations, the agency is poised to adopt those rules at a meeting on Tuesday." And while it seems black and white, these new rules may indeed still contain areas of gray. Will internet providers find the loopholes to work around the rules? And will the courts come in and be forced to rule on its constitutionality? Ultimately, the rules are meant to provide a level playing field for all content and lower the barriers for other companies to stream competitive content online. Good news for Netflix and Google? A new competitive landscape is certainly forming.

Hulu IPO On Hold

Is Hulu having troubles? Concerned about going public perhaps and opening up the books? Afraid that the model isn't working? Certainly lots of questions, but no answers. Only that the IPO may be off the table. "Online video site Hulu LLC has taken off the table the idea of going public, at least for now, and may consider other financing options, people familiar with the matter said." But will these owners agree to invest more of their money into this venture?

One wonders how well the premium subscription model is working. "Some consumers have complained that the Hulu Plus selection remains limited, and the company already cut its monthly price to $7.99 from $9.99 during the preview period. Many of Hulu's investors have been pushing it to consider other paid models that could help them earn more money from their content." Can more money be made licensing their product to companies like Netflix? Perhaps online is the new syndication model.

Google TV Delayed

Attention cord cutters, you may have to wait a little longer for your Google TV. More tweaks may be needed to build a consumer friendly platform and so Google is delaying its release. "Google has asked Toshiba, LG Electronics and Sharp to postpone launches of Google TV-based products, which had been planned for next month's Consumer Electronics Show, as the Internet giant needs more time to improve the software." First impressions are everything and if the Google software is problematic, smart to delay before the unveiling then try to fix later. By then, the damage would have been done.

Interestingly, internet connected TV sales are not doing well. "Last week Best Buy -- another key launch partner for Google TV -- reported weaker-than-expected sales for the quarter ended Nov. 27, blaming in part disappointing sales of Internet-connected TVs." Of course, why buy one if you already have a connection to the internet through your gaming devices like Wii, Playstation, and XBox 360, and DVD and blu-ray players. How many connections do I really need.

Can Google break into the game. Maybe not by CES, but 2011 should be an interesting year.

Facebook Troubles

We expect when we turn a light switch that the light comes on. We expect when we pick up the telephone receiver, the dial tone is there, we expect when we turn on our TV, our cable is working. And we expect when we type in our URL, that the website comes up. And when it doesn't, who do we blame. Our broadband provider, our computer, or the website itself. And so it seems with Facebook's website down for another period of time, something is up. And so while we cannot access our Facebook accounts, let us realize that we shouldn't trust any one site to hold us hostage. So climb down off the ledge. It should be back online soon.

Cablevision May Finally Spin Off Rainbow

The discussion to spin the assets of Rainbow, AMC, IFC and others, has been swirling around Cablevision for quite some time. In fact, they issued a tracking stock in the 90's before pulling Rainbow back into Cablevision. Well the results of the spin off of MSG certainly must have tasted good because the board of directors are moving forward with a Rainbow spin off. "The spin would be constructed as a tax-free pro rata distribution to stockholders and is expected to be completed by mid-year 2011." Good news to investors seeking to unlock more value for Cablevision stock and certainly healthy profits for the family and key employee stockholders.

From the article: "The new Rainbow's assets will include:
• National programming networks: AMC, WE tv, IFC, Sundance Channel and Wedding Central
• IFC Entertainment, an independent film business that consists of multiple brands - including IFC Films, IFC Productions and the IFC Center
• Rainbow Network Communications, a full service network programming origination and distribution company, delivering programming to the cable, satellite and broadcast industries
Cablevision would retain its cable and telecommunications businesses, Newsday, News 12 Networks, MSG Varsity and Clearview Cinemas.
Completion of the spin is subject to several external conditions, including receipt of a private letter ruling from the Internal Revenue Service, and final approval from its board of directors.
Cablevision reiterated that it is not considering the sale of Rainbow or its cable and telecommunications business."

Are iPad Apps Killing Newspapers?

Seems like a redundant question. The fact is that the digital age is hurting the print media. For newspapers and magazines, consumers have gone to the clouds to aggregate and access their information. And with an economy in trouble, the web has proved far less costly a means to view content. Readers have gotten more and more comfortable reading articles on their computers and smart phones. The iPad is simply another product choice for viewing.

It certainly doesn't take a survey to see what is right in front of our eyes. Still it does verify the trend. "The survey showed that 58 percent of respondents who use the Apple tablet at least an hour a day for news are very likely to cancel their subscription in the next six months. One in 10 said they had already done so and have switched to reading digital newspapers on their iPad." Still content remains king and newer delivery methods that are faster and cheaper always beat out their more cumbersome rivals. It is a natural evolution of our changing entertainment landscape.

Mark Zuckerberg Time Man Of The Year

Okay, so The Social Network movie did well with Golden Globe nominations. But Facebook has been around a few years now and nothing revolutionary seemed to occur this year. "For connecting more than half a billion people and mapping the social relations among them; for creating a new system of exchanging information; and for changing how we all live our lives, Mark Elliot Zuckerberg is TIME's 2010 Person of the Year." Runnerups were Julian Assange and the Tea Party, both interesting choices. I ask, what about Steve Jobs and the iPad. Revolutionary, I think so. Quickly a must have device for some businesses as well as individuals. I'd say yes. But I don't get to vote. So congratulations mark.

Comcast Testing New Set Top Box

As cable worries about cord cutters, those that prefer access to video over the web, cable operators have become nervous. So if you can't beat them join them. Comcast is testing a new set top box, internally called Xcalibur, that allows the TV to connect to both cable and web videos. "What little is known about Xcalibur. The device is said to bring a “smattering” of Web video and “basic connections” to social networks, but not access to the full internet. It also allows the user to search for content across live, recorded and on-demand options." Certainly anything is better than the current set top boxes used by cable.

A step in the right direction but the path has many pitfalls, including the merger plans with NBC. "A product like XCalibur would be just the kind of device where Comcast could conceivably promote its own online offerings (Hulu, Fancast, etc.) at the expense of competitors (Netflix)." Unfair competition is the crux of the concern facing the FCC and DOJ in approving this merger. But in developing a new set top box, is Comcast getting down to why it is needed.

Viewers aren't choosing the web because it is loaded with more content, or that it is in Hi Def, or that it is on demand. Cable leads in all these categories. Customers are choosing the web for two main reasons that I can see. Web access is far cheaper than a cable subscription and the web offers more flexibility across more platforms.

Today, cable is striving to provide authentication to mobile devices and computers. But to the issue of cost, cable must figure out how to lower its costs to stop the flow of customers from basic subscription. Does a new set top box do that? Not on its own. Lower prices is the real solution.

Time Warner Views Netflix as a Fading Star

Check out this article in today's New York Times. Per Time Warner's CEO, Netflix has "jumped the shark" and will become a fading business. he refers particularly to the deals that Netflix has signed. "The relationship between Netflix and the media companies will most likely change drastically, beginning next year when a deal between the company and Starz, the pay-TV channel, to stream movies from Sony and Disney expires." And while Netflix may have signed some sweetheart deals, it can't be so quickly assumed that they will not find common ground in their renewals. As their growth soars, they remain a powerful force that seems to continue to add a strong and loyal customer base. Should programmers see that their deals are additive to the revenue stream, I doubt they will want to rock the boat too much.

Are Time Warner and the other cable operators worried? Can Netflix continue to sign content agreements that work for their business model? Welcome to a new era of competition in the cable industry.

Another Broadcaster - Operator Negotiation

The end of year brings Santa, cold weather, and yes, another broadcaster and Operator negotiation. In this case, it is Direct TV and Hearst, who owns a number of local affiliate broadcast networks. "The Hearst announcement is the latest salvo in the ongoing battle between programmers and TV providers over carriage fees. Subscribers to DIRECTV, Dish Network, Cablevision and others have lost access to their favorite channels for a period of time this year because their providers could not reach a new agreement before the old one expired.' Markets potentially affected include Boston, Tampa, and 28 others. And for those markets, get used to ads touting alternate platforms to watch their channels. And like every other public negotiation, it will need get resolved until near or perhaps after the deadline. The result, a short term drop in carriage. But don't worry, this negotiation like the others before it will be resolved and order restored. And like every other agreement, the loser will be the customer.

Rainbow Changes Up IFC

When Cablevision and its programming arm bought Sundance Channel a couple years ago, the big question was why. Why add a second indie film network to the roster. One reason may have been favorable financial results. Another seems to be that change was in the air. It appears that IFC is becoming less film and sponsorship. "Instead of art-house films backed by sponsorship messages, IFC is increasingly running accessible indie movies, original series, reruns of cult comedies -- and traditional commercials." No longer saying this hour sponsored by, but offering 2 minutes of 30 second commercial breaks every 15 minutes in a traditional advertising wheel for TV. That means programming to a broader base, which translates to more viewers, more advertising minutes and thus more revenue. Obviously that change will be gradual in an attempt to keep the current viewers engaged while striving to attract new one.

This strategy is not a new one for Rainbow. It has been perfected before. When Rainbow owned Bravo Network (before selling it to NBC), they successfully moved it from a cultural channel with broader interest programming to a more general interest network. They also successfully converted it from sponsorship messages to the traditional ad model. It proved a successful transition that resulted in unlocking greater value from the channel. So most likely Rainbow has dusted off and reopened this playbook for IFC. And if they follow its action plans, they will have similar results. With Sundance Channel in their stable, they still have a network for more indie films and they can push those viewers over who still seek this programming. But don't get too comfortable. I suspect in another 10 years, Sundance Channel will also convert to traditional advertising, and indie films will only be available on demand.

Howard Stern signs new 5-year deal with Sirius

Well despite all the rumors, of Apple and iTunes, Howard Stern renews his deal with Sirius. "The deal, which runs through the end of 2015, provides that Sirius XM can now transmit Stern's show to mobile devices. No other terms will be disclosed, the company said." Good news to listeners and good news for Sirius.

The Color Nook Is Here

E-book lovers get another generation product to satisfy their reading needs, the color Nook by Barnes and Noble. To me it seems a cross between the Kindle and the iPad and blurs the line between tablet and e-reader. Which device to purchase. One that is devoted to reading or one that also serves up video and more. I guess the answer today comes down to consumer needs and price.

It reminds me of the days many years ago when buying my first stereo system. Did you buy the all in one that combined the turntable, receiver, and cassette player or did you buy components. Want to read a book, take out your reader, want to watch a video, take out your iPad. The challenge is that because these devices tend to be more mobile, carrying more than one can be cumbersome and heavy. An all-in-one device seems more appropriate although the fear is that once the power is discharged, you are done. The more you ask of the device, the more power it needs to consume and the shorter the usage between charging.

As the article says, the readers keep improving. and in 5 years, we will marvel at how much more complex they have become. Let's hope that in that time, the power issue is solved, too.

Will Broadband Become Another Utility?

As discussions on net neutrality rage on, one idea that has been pushed has been pay for play. The heavier the usage, like videos and movie streaming, the higher the fees. No more unlimited time. Well, the good folks at Comcast, in an attempt to move their merger with NBC forward, have declared, no usage fees. "Comcast Cable Communications president Neil Smit said the nation's largest cable operator won't push for hefty charges for heavy users of its broadband service, despite recent Federal Communications Commission moves that would appear to open the door for price increases." Great, but for how long? Until the merger is approved, for one year, forever? Sometimes you wonder if these types of pronouncements are more political than true. Just like a politician, much is promised, but less is delivered. Let's just not be naive to the rhetoric.

TV Advertising Not Dead

Despite multiple screens that access video programming, the big screen in the house (in the living room, bedroom, kitchen, or perhaps in all three rooms) remains the best experience to watch video programming. HDTV sets, DVRs, sound systems, and such all make the home viewing experience ideal. And the consumer agrees. "Mr. Wieser (Brian Wieser, global director for forecasting at Magna Global) said he foresaw no dire effects on traditional television from the growth of what is known as over-the-top TV, which is delivery of programming through the Internet".

And because TV remains popular, TV advertising is also doing well. "TV is, by his estimates, still gaining share of the overall advertising market, he added, to 40.7 percent in 2010, from 37 percent in 2005." Certainly, slow improvements in the economy are also helping other mediums as well, including print. But the fear that TV's share would erode from computers, smart phones, or tablets, may not be true. While these devices provide flexibility of viewership, they more likely increase viewership usage, not replace the TV set.

With tax cuts being extended by Congress, and more disposable income in the hands of consumers, more ad spending should occur to help push dollars from the wallet into business hands. And with more consumer spending should come more tax revenue. Television programming remains healthy; perhaps another reason Comcast wants to buy NBC.

Free HDTV

What is old is new again, especially with a tight economy. Consumers are rediscovering the rabbit ears, although this time it is to receive digital broadcast signals. "Some viewers who have decided that they are no longer willing or able to pay for cable or satellite service, including younger ones, are buying antennas and tuning in to a surprising number of free broadcast channels. These often become part of a video diet that includes the fast-growing menu of options available online."

Yes broadband is more important to the consumer than cable programming. And because of Hulu, Netflix, and other web video providers, there is satisfaction with the choice. To compensate, Time Warner has built a new tier at a lower price, offering connection to broadcast and some inexpensive basic cable channels. A downgraded customer is better than one that leaves entirely.

In a separate article in today's NY Times, ESPN conducted a study that proved that cord cutting was not a problem. "The research comes from the same sample that Nielsen uses to project TV ratings. Nielsen verified ESPN’s findings. Similarly, data from the research firm SNL Kagan found that 119,000 customers dropped their cable or satellite subscriptions in the third quarter of this year. There are about 100 million subscriptions nationwide."

Except, look deeper into the analysis, and perhaps there may be a concern. Today's consumers are leaving cable, for telco and satellite. Why? I imagine that their competitive pricing is lower. For networks like ESPN, a sub lost to cable is gained at telco and satellite growth. Subscribers will gravitate to better value. And as TV manufacturers and gaming platforms continue to build easy access to web programming, consumers will eventually gravitate to these choices in greater volume.

So today, the numbers looks low. But like the boy that stuck his finger in the dam to stop the flow of water, other cracks soon develop and the hole gets bigger. The flow moves from trickle to small stream. Programmers will be hurt less than cable companies in the current cord cutting analysis. But it is a trend that will only keep flowing.

Sirus Rumor

Not that I believe it or even think that it is a good fit, but the rumor is that Howard Stern will leave Sirius for Apple. "According to the rumor, Howard Stern is about to sign a contract with Apple for $600 million over three years to host a new internet show over iTunes." Perhaps too, this rumor is meant to encourage Sirius to renegotiate a competitive offer. We will jsut have to wait and see.

Netflix vs Hulu

The battle for online content continues to intrigue us, both for cable companies offering access and those outside the cable cord. The two most mentioned are Hulu and Netflix. Hulu is a partnership of content companies while Netflix works alone. And Netflix is seeing an opportunity through streaming to be more than a DVD provider. In fact, the real play is access to current TV shows not yet on DVD. "The company is in talks with studios about gaining access to current episodes of primetime shows and is willing to pay between $70,000 and $100,000 per episode, according to a person familiar with the matter. Netflix had no comment."

For content creators and distributors, more platforms likely equates to more revenue. Fox and NBC can sell their networks to cable, sell their shows to Hulu through their partnership, and sell again to Netflix. And while some consumers may cut the cord to cable for broadband only, others may actually keep their cable cord and own a Netflix subscription. Dollars are spent and content companies get richer.

Except sometimes new distribution platform upsets an old one. As an example, look at the shortening of the windows from theatrical to DVD to on demand. Fear arises that monies from one platform will simply move over and that additional dollars will not be generated. Or worse, that profits will fall. For the TV market, a similar problem exists. "The studios that supply the networks with shows argue they own the streaming rights to in-season shows. But the broadcast networks that make a profit from repeats -- and stand to lose audiences, ad dollars and syndication revenue if viewers can see those same episodes on Netflix -- argue they control the rights." The rise of streaming can hurt syndication. Still as we have learned from change, the transition is never easy. But if you don't you risk the loss of the entire business model.

Streaming is here and there is nothing to stop it. Syndication has already been hurt by the rise of cable networks, but it still exists. Streaming will coincide with syndication, it will just alter the playing field a bit more.

FCC Again Pushing Net Neutrality Proposal

A topic that will not go away, net neutrality remains a key issue to the broadband highway. "At the heart of his (FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski) proposal are two broad ideas: 1) ISPs can’t block content or favor one service over another, but 2) variable pricing based on consumer use is OK. So equal to all but fees can benefit some over others. Is it open or not. Or can ISP providers choose how to manage traffic flow. And ultimately, why can't the consumer decide which broadband provider best serves their need. Encourage more competition at the ISP level, whether wireless or wired, so that ultimately, competition not regulation, is the ultimate decider. By lowering these barriers to entry, through tax breaks and other means, a fair market run by many will favor the current monopolistic tendencies that exist today.

Sirius Shares Good News

Tons of good news coming out of SiriusXM recently. On the content front, the NFL deal was renewed for 5 years and a new personality joins the team, Dr. Laura Schlessinger. Hopefully a Howard Stern announcement will come shortly. On a subscription front, SiriusXM has surpassed the 20 million subscriber mark in the US. As the economy slowly improves and the Holiday Season is now around us, perhaps the gift of a Sirius subscription will push this number even higher.

Change Can Be Costly

That Barnes & Noble is trying to change its business model to meet a changing world is admirable. But change is difficult and sometimes costly. The consequences of doing nothing can be costlier, even resulting in bankruptcy. The landscape is littered with retailers that didn't change - Tower Records, HMV, Blockbuster, and many others. And don't forget those still mired in muck and likely to be added to the list - companies like Borders. So that B&N hqave invested in digital technology and specifically the Nook, is at least an attempt to stay relevent and around.

"The New York-based book chain -- headed by controversial founder and Chairman Len Riggio -- said yesterday the handheld device has quickly captured a 20 percent market since its launch last year, despite stiff competition from Amazon's Kindle and Apple's iPad. Nevertheless, the Nook's quick growth has come at a price. Yesterday, B&N reported a wider-than-expected quarterly loss, and said losses for the current fiscal year could surpass $50 million -- twice as steep as the previous forecast -- as B&N invests heavily in the Nook." Yes, success does come at a price. And a combination online and brick and mortar store can work. Apple is proving that.

B&N has invested in a new business model and must continue to follow strategies that merge the success of the Nook with its store. Game Stop uses free downloads when you visit their store with your game device. B&N can develop other motivations to assure that customers enjoy the advantages of both an on-line and in-store relationship. Other ideas might require a shift in inventory to include new lines, online couponing redeemable in store, gaming, etc.

Staying the leader is never easy, especially as external market forces change. The transition for B&N may be costly, but in the long run, it may be what ultimately keeps them alive and successful.

Net Neutrality Questioned

Without net neutrality laws, content availability may govern platform success. Level 3 is arguing that the barriers to entry in the broadband marketplace is raised to a point where unfair competition occurs. "Level 3, which helps to deliver Netflix’s streaming movies, said Comcast had effectively erected a tollbooth that 'threatens the open Internet,' and indicated that it would seek government intervention. Comcast quickly denied that the clash had anything to do with network neutrality, instead calling it 'a simple commercial dispute.'” Should this concern the government, not to mention the public, seeking cord cutting alternatives to cable subscription fees? And should it be a concern, especially with the merger talks concluding with Comcast and NBCU?

This news certainly is coming out at an inopportune time. Preferential treatment for some content creators over others, could be argued. "In theory, without government action, Comcast could speed up streams of NBC programs and slow down streams of its rivals’ programs."

More is at stake than this one issue. As file sizes get larger, demand grows, and the bandwidth gets maxed out, then something has got to give. Should a free capital market put the onus on who can afford to pay for better treatment? Is it really possible to be completely equitable? With more mobile and web based activity, traffic needs to be managed properly; otherwise, you have delays and traffic jams for all. As long as broadband content gets through and is not stopped completely, then maybe a free market system is the way to go.

Microsoft eyes leap back into TV

Will cable lose to Microsoft? Once a partner to the cable industry with investments with cable operators and networks, Microsoft has lost its lead and its focus. Where they continue to excel is gaming and their product, XBox, may just be the driver back into the household. "The software powerhouse has held talks with TV networks to create a new subscription-based TV service on its Xbox gaming console that would rival efforts by Google Inc, Apple Inc and Netflix Inc, sources told Reuters." As Xbox 360 continues to gain momentum, online access opens much potential. In an era of cord cutting, users of XBox could easily connect with web based content and cut the cord to cable.

A lower level of service could be built at a much lower price point, and more suitable for today's household. "One scenario under consideration by Microsoft is to create a new TV service on its Xbox gaming console that would establish a "virtual cable operator." The service would charge a monthly fee for access through the Xbox to networks such as ABC, NBC, Fox, CBS, ESPN or CNN, according to two sources familiar with the plans." More ala carte, cheaper bundles, more consumer friendly. A boon for the consumer, a bust for cable companies.

Netflix’s Move Onto the Web Stirs Rivalries

The New York Times is noticing, consumers are too. Netflix has embraced the web and has found a better profit margin in serving it's content to consumers. Without the cost of postage, Netflix can get its content into the home instantaneously. Good news for consumers, bad news for the US Postal Service as well as cable companies. "For the first time, the company will spend more over the holidays to stream movies than to ship DVDs in its familiar red envelopes (although it is still spending more than half a billion dollars on postage this year). And that shift coincides with an ominous development for cable companies, which long controlled home entertainment: for the first time in their history, cable television subscriptions fell in the United States in the last two quarters — a trend some attribute to the rise of Netflix, which allows consumers to bypass their cable box to stream movies and shows."

Netflix's remaining dilemma is how to increase its inventory of content. Cable can boast more on demand content currently, but it is at a higher cost to the consumer. With a much lower price point than cable, Netflix may not have the most, but they may have enough of the right content. Cable and satellite also have promoted the fact that some top transactional movie titles are available a month before Netflix customers can view. As Netflix demand grows, studios may have to rethink this tactic.

As consumers watch their spending, Netflix represents a real game changer that can hasten the cord cutting threatening cable. With just a broadband connection, video content is instantly available. Technological innovation continues to change the entertainment landscape, turning leaders into followers.

Time Warner Cable Launches New Plans

Last week, Time Warner announced a new low end tier of cable service, less cable channels, for a lower price. Some expensive licensed channels, ESPN and Disney, were named as not included in this low end tier. It is a valiant attempt at keeping a customer from defecting altogether. A downgrade is better than a disconnect.

At the same time, Time Warner has enhanced its upper end tier pricing as well. "Time Warner Cable will charge high-end customers $199.99 per month for a new "white glove" service option that it has dubbed Signature Home. According to a report in Bloomberg News Tuesday, Time Warner Cable is testing the service in Charlotte, N.C. and will roll it out nationally in the next few weeks." Will this new high end service package upsell some, perhaps it will simply offset the same number that downgrade and hence a break even for the company.

Kudos to Time Warner for at least being innovative in their pricing, given the needs of their customers. Whether, the response matches or exceeds the effort remains to be seen. How much marketing is done to push these new pricing tiers will show us how committed they really are to these programs. And to that we will just have to wait and see.

More iPad Uses, More iPads

A product is only as good as what it does. Develop more uses, create more usage, and more products should sell off the shelf. So was the case with Arm & Hammer baking soda, and so is the case with the iPad. For baking soda, Arm & Hammer pushed more usage, not just in cooking, but as an air freshener in the refrigerator, as an additive to toothpaste, and so on. The result was that usage rose dramatically. For the Apple iPad, the more uses, the more desire to use, and the more users. Thus the upcoming announcement.

"Apple may hold a press event as soon as Dec. 9 with a number of print executives -- including News Corp's Rupert Murdoch -- to unveil a new subscription billing option for newspapers and magazines on the iPad." Building out new subscription models with unique content can only drive the value of the iPad brand. Apple understands the basic marketing business model and is successfully capitalizing off it. By creating more need for the iPad, sales will rise this Holiday season and beyond.

Senator says Comcast/NBC may have broken law

On Friday, I asked a simple question, was the naming of executives prior to an approved merger common or unusual. I never asked, was it legal. Well, today that question is being asked. "Senator Al Franken, a critic of Comcast Corp's (CMCSA.O) proposed deal for control of NBC Universal, asked the Justice Department on Monday to investigate whether the giant cable company had engaged in 'illegal collaboration' concerning its intended target." And as it has been noted, Al Franken was a long term writer/performer on SNL, an NBC TV show. So perhaps, Senator Franken has some more thoughts than others on this merger.

To my question if this pre-merger announcement was unusual, came this comment. "An antitrust expert agreed it was not unusual for executives to be named for posts before the companies get government approval to close." I simply want to understand if there is a difference in planning pre-merger privately and announcing publicly. It seems that by announcing, the current lame duck managers are left doing nothing till the merger occurs. And that work stoppage hurts NBC.

Netflix Pushes Streaming and Price Increase

Netflix based its business on DVD mailers. They saw an opportunity to better their competitor, Blockbuster, with no penalty fees, low costs, and quick response and built a leader position. As a result, they toppled their competition and gained a loyal customer base. But like any business story, the lead can quickly be lost if you don't adapt to a changing environment. In Netflix's case, they did.

The biggest change for them was embracing a different distribution platform. While the DVD was their business model, their willingness to move from it to streaming could also be viewed as hurting the core of what they built their business on. But change, while difficult can also lead to greater successes. And Netflix is succeeding.

"The company based in Los Gatos, Calif. previously announced that more of its members are watching more content streamed over the Internet than on DVDs. To deal with this shift, Netflix says it will spend more this quarter to license streaming content than to buy DVDs" And with this shift in expenditures comes a need to increase customer pricing, too. "Existing members will incur the price increases in January, while people who are new sign-ups will face the higher prices immediately. Netflix has more than 16 million members in the U.S. and Canada and predicted in October that it would gain another 2.1 million to 2.9 million customers by year's end. That means Netflix could enter 2011 with more than 19 million subscribers, doubling the service's size in two years."

As consumers become more streaming savvy, Netflix has maintained and expanded their leadership base. And they are raising prices at the same time. Certainly any price increase hurts the consumer, but when the choice for content is cable or Netflix, Netflix continues to look like good value. Netflix is positioning themselves as a real alternative in the entertainment industry. While Blockbuster was once their adversary, it seems now that Netflix is after bigger game, the cable industry. And cable, concerned about cord cutting, is watching just where their audience is heading.

Comcast NBC Deal Done?

Maybe it is because I am close to the cable industry, maybe it is typical for other mergers, but I have to say, I don't recall previous mergers announcing their management structure changes BEFORE the ink has dried. So, I find it quite unusual to read about management changes for NBC and Comcast prior to its approval by the FCC and DOJ. Is this typical?

What is the current management team supposed to do today? Is it like a lame duck Congress, filing papers and cleaning their desk? And what happens IF the merger is not approved. Is this deal rubber stamped for approval so no use waiting for the formalities. It just seems odd to me.

And what IF the merger is actually disallowed. Does everybody simply go back to square one and have a do-over? Is that possible or will bad blood exist as a result of the memo. As I said, it just seems odd that these announcements have been made prior to approval by the government. Unusual or not, let me know.

Cord Cutting? Cable Subscriptions Drop Again

Let's see the scorecard. For Q3, Comcast lost 275,000 cable TV subscribers, Time Warner Cable lost 155,000 subs, Charter lost 63,800, and Cablevision 24,500 subscribers. For both Time Warner and Comcast, each has seen basic sub losses for the last 6 quarters. back in Q1 2009, Time Warner added 36,000 customers while Comcast lost 78,000 subs. In fact,as far back as I have tracked, Q4 2008, Comcast has been losing basic customers, a total since then of almost one and a half million basic subscribers.

To be fair, not all these cable cord cutters are dropping cable TV service altogether; rather, most are switching to Satellite or Telco. Since Q4 2009, the "cable" companies have lost more than 2.7 mm subs, while Dish and Direct TV together have added more than 2mm and AT&T and Verizon have added over 3.75 mm TV customers. So while TV subscription is growing, the trend is moving from cable to alternative providers.

The other factor to consider is the level of service being purchased. As cable TV rates rise, customers are moving to satellite and telco for better deals. Customers are also dropping additional services like premium TV. HBO for instance has seen a significant drop in subscription. With VOD as well as over the top service like Netflix and Redbox, customers are choosing to buy individual films over a premium subscription. It is partly why these providers are pushing more original series to their audience. Exclusivity of content to maintain their audience share.

Lastly is over the top content providers. With Hulu pricing lower their premium level of service, price elasticity is at play to generate more customer buys. As Hulu becomes more robust at a manageable price point, pressure to drop cable service for broadband content will also impact cord cutting. Series through Hulu and other content sites and movies through Netflix and others, all at a at a reasonable price point, may cause consumers to reallocate their entertainment budget from cable subscription to elsewhere. And TV manufacturers and gaming console providers are making it far easier for consumers to connect broadband content to their TV set.

So the challenge of a bad economy, poor price-value proposition by the cable companies, cheaper alternatives, and over the top choices for content are negatively affecting the subscriber numbers for cable companies. The trends over the last 2 years should be enough for cable companies to realize that their dominance is at risk. Maybe not today, maybe not next year, but market forces continue to take bigger bites to eat away their market share.

iTunes To Add Beatle Songs

No Apple surprises like a Verizon iPhone with 4G. No next generation iPod,No new operating system announcement. No today's Apple news will be that iTunes will add The Beatle songbook to its library enabling digital music downloads. Those who are Beatle fans already have the albums and cds. Those that want have most likely found a means to download. So while it is nice to hear that this deal will occur, it doesn't do much to shake the music world. Still, it is nice to see the deal finalized before I get older and start losing my hair, many years from now..."

TIVO Slashes DVR Price

Black Friday is arriving early for consumers interested in owning a Tivo. "TiVo will hack $200 off the retail prices of its DVRs through the end of the year, hoping the hardware discounts of up to 66% will help it stanch the flow of subscriber losses." Good news for fans looking for a deal, but I don't believe it will move the needle much.

To me, the missing ingredient is the integration with the set top box. Currently, few MSOs offer this feature. "The Alviso, Calif.-based company has struck agreements with Comcast, Cox Communications, DirecTV, RCN, Suddenlink Communications, Virgin Media in the U.K. and other service providers to variously provide TiVo-based services, resell its DVRs or provide better integration with TiVos." And while Comcast is mentioned, I have yet to receive a promotion offering me to trade my DVR box for a Tivo. Comcast would rather sell their own DVR service. I wonder if other cable customers from the above list are even aware that they can get Tivo service from their cable company. Is Cox marketing the service actively? Is Suddenlink?

There may be a deal in place, but are there customers. Adding a Tivo box under the TV with a cable box, a gaming box, a DVD player, only creates a mess of too many boxes, too many remotes, too many wires, and no simplicity. Less is more and the cable companies should consider putting their technology into the next generation of Wii boxes, Playstations, and yes, Tivos. A stand alone set top box has lost its way in the war of boxes that control the TV. It is time for more partnerships.

My Space Not A Social Network

According to its CEO, Mike Jones, My Space is changing its strategy to focus itself as an entertainment portal and not as a social networking site. "Talking The Telegraph at the Monaco Media Forum, Jones said the bold statement: 'MySpace is a not a social network anymore. It is now a social entertainment destination.'” And so Facebook has killed another competitor. So long Bebo and now so long My Space.

And while the focus of this discussion is on England, the same holds true for the US. "Jones said new users would be of a younger demographic who want to 'meet new and old friends around great content'. The focus of the ‘new MySpace’ in the UK during the launch period of the redesign will be solely on music discovery, with other content focus areas, such as TV and film, to come later. However, the US MySpace revamp launched with movie, TV and celebrity content ‘hubs’ already in place. Jones is hoping higher quality content, will yield good advertising returns." Can My Space change in time or are they so locked into a perception that the perception of the brand is locked?

The one thing My Space has going for it is a powerful owner. With Fox behind them, My Space has the financial muscle to change directions. Competition in this entertainment arena is equally tough, but Fox has the content to help their brother in this on line race.

Tivo Patent Update

When will the Tivo lawsuit ever end. Will Tivo prove once and for all that Dish owes Tivo for its technology. And should it prove true, will other companies finally get on board and strike deals with Tivo to put their capabilities into their boxes. "TiVo is trying to convince a panel of judges that Dish remains in contempt of a lower court ruling that the satellite TV provider’s DVRs are infringing TiVo’s patents."

To me, Tivo remains the leader in DVR and the cable box dvrs pale in comparison. I only wish my cable company would offer me the Tivo service through their set top box.

iPad Users More Likely To Cut Cable Cord

Here are the learnings:

"According to the study, a third of iPad owners are 'likely' to cancel their pay TV service sometime in the next six months, and 12.9% are 'highly likely' to cancel their service. In comparison, 13.5% of iPad intenders and 9.6% of average adult broadband users are likely to cancel their service. It gets even worse when the possibility of downgrading comes into play: A whopping 35.5% of iPad owners and 29.5% of intenders are to varying degrees likely to downgrade their pay TV service, compared to 20.7% of regular broadband users. For some perspective, Apple sold 4.19 million iPads last quarter."

Certainly the question can be asked what percentage will actually cut the cord. Hard to believe that folks would replace their beautiful 40" HD Flat Screen Color TV for a 10" tablet. Still, the younger generation is more mobile, buys less big screen toys, and likes that content can follow them and not the other way around.

I see my cable bill every month and it drives me crazy. I constantly wrestle with downgrading my service based on our viewing behavior. To me, the cost to buy premium services may outweigh its benefits. I love watching films on demand, but rarely am home to watch. I would say we watch about 6-8 premium movies a month. I could buy transaction titles only and perhaps save some money. Add a low cost Netflix subscription and stream these same premium movies and perhaps I would overall find myself saving even more money.

The iPad represents another platform for viewing streamed content. Cable must pursue a strategy of extending its cable subscription across multiple devices to compete effectively against Netflix and others. It will be this added value that may stop folks from being likely to actually cutting their cable cord.

Sirius Earnings Up

The car industry is improving, Sirius is included in most models, and more subs are keeping them turned on. It seems that Sirius is making all the right moves. "With Sirius XM being projected to end the year with over 20.1M subscribers, and the current direction of Comcast’s subscriber growth, it won’t be long before the Satellite Radio provider will be claiming the number one spot for subscriber based business models." That is quite an accomplishment for a company that was struggling to stay afloat.

Does Howard Stern make a difference? Probably some, but the sub losses would be offset by other niches and the overall margins could possibly improve. Still Howard and Sirius seem like the perfect pairing and Howard is benefiting more by subscriber additions. He has shares in the company and with the stock price rising, he should be pleased.

Apple iPad Has A Rival

Apple has never feared competition. It continues to do its own thing and seems to have a habit of leading the field. As a result it has shown phenomenal growth in a relatively short period of time. The latest field of play is tablets and the iPad has once again been the front runner. Well it seems the competition is starting to show its hand and coming up with notable alternatives. The latest comes from Samsung. "Samsung's strategy is to point out things you can accomplish that are challenged or impossible on an iPad. A promotional video shows Galaxy Tab in the palm of a user's hand as the person moves around, navigating maps, browsing the Web and engaging in a video conference." Obviously we now wait for Apple's latest version to come out to show that for evey step that the competition makes, Apple takes two bigger steps.

Hulu's Digital Pennies May Now Be Quarters

While not much is said on how the premium model is going for Hulu, Ad revenue does not seem to be suffering. "The company will generate $240 million in revenue this year, up from $108 million last year, and $25 million in 2008, (CEO Jason) Kilar said on stage at the NewTeeVee Live conference." Impressive growth from a startup. But does it indicate something more.

As they share their usage metrics, it makes me wonder the Hulu Effect on cord cutting. With so many users and so many streams, are these same users keeping their cable subscription and enhancing their usage experience. Or as some speculate, they have found that they can drop their cable service and watch their shows online only. So what is good for Hulu may not be good for Cable Operators.

Will a Comcast NBC Merger Cause Customer Fees to Rise?

We worry about a number of things when mergers occur. Monopolistic conditions, higher barriers for competitors to enter, less innovation, and of course rising prices for a limited resource. So goes the latest argument assessing the merger of Comcast and NBCU. "William Rogerson, a former chief economist of the Federal Communications Commission, said the deal would lead to $2.4 billion in higher fees to consumers over the next nine years unless the commission and the Justice Department, which are assessing the merger, impose conditions."

The question is, where are those fees being imposed. If at the cable programming level, the biggest concern is cord cutting because of current rising fees. Consumers are moving in two directions with their cable company, all or nothing. The customers getting only cable are dropping their service completely. The others are becoming a two or three platform user, adding phone and/or broadband. Hence the Q3 financials from the cable companies are showing basic cable subscriber losses, and a rise in phone and broadband users. It is the haves and the have nots, all or nothing. Rising fees only exacerbates the cable problem.

As to digital content, assuring that NBCU content is not restricted to the cable platform only is an understandable concern. "Hulu is considered the digital jewel of the transaction. Having a stake in Hulu would help Comcast sidestep a big concern for cable companies, namely that users could start cutting subscriptions if they could see their favorite shows free online." Assuring that content remains available on the web would be a positive move.

So as cable subscription drops, cable companies are looking to raise the fees on broadband. Here is where the FCC has to decide whether they want to call broadband a utility or not. Otherwise, they have no right to impose limitations. I believe current utility companies should be encouraged to enter into this business without government limits. The electric companies for instance have an infrastructure in place and with tax inducements to expand into the broadband business, they could become a notable competitor to the cable and phone company in the market. And more competition is healthy.

Consequently, the concern for price gouging could be dismissed with a more positive approach to the problem, and not more regulation.

AOL and Yahoo Merger?

Last month, we spoke of the talk of merger between AOL and Yahoo. This rumor continues to have life as more is being written. Today's WSJ is examining the opportunity further. "Why get all hot over the prospect of an AOL/Yahoo merger? As The Journal notes, analysts say it could create a strong competitor in the market for online display ads -- a market that is expected to total roughly $20 billion worldwide this year, and could reach $50 billion over the next few years." With Google maintaining a healthy lead in market share, a merger may be necessary to gain some yardage in this foot race.

Is there synergy in such a merger? Will additional cost efficiencies or revenue projections improve as a result of this partnership? Frankly, I wonder if it will only show the overlap of usage and incremental market share will not be uncovered. What is missing is innovation. Partnership is needed with the right parties. Build the better mousetrap and users will move over to you. Google can be beaten.

Scripps and AT&T Agree

Having lived through the Cablevision and Fox negotiations, it is nice to see another network find quicker resolution. Fox was off the air for weeks; Scripp's channels, HGTV, Food, and others were off the air for three days. "The two sides had just begun gearing up a public relations offensive, launching informational sites like att.com/fighting4you and www.keepmynetworks.com aimed at targeting customer frustration at each other. U-verse's facebook page was flooded with comments from mostly angry fans of Scripps channels threatening to change their service if their programming was not restored." And so another deal is done but not before the customer is both brought into the fight and also inconvenienced. At the end of the day the viewer has lost time with their channels and will ultimately pay more for them. Simply put, the customers keep losing.

US News Quits Print Subscription Business

Add another magazine to the list. US News and World Report has decided to end its print subscription business to concentrate on web and special print issues. "After December, regular editions of the magazine would only be published online, The New York Times reported Saturday. Editors said an occasional special report might be released on paper." Certainly the cost to print and mail continues to rise; in addition, consumers are dropping their print subscriptions to get their news online. When the economics no longer work, it is time to face the reality and make a change. For US News, this new era starts in January.

Surprisingly, their focus in on free web content and not on a digital subscription model. With the rise of tablets, I'm surprised that they are not considering this strategy. Print will still be offered as one off issues, but only through newsstands, thus saving mailing costs. An interesting move that their editors describe as a growth move, but appears as more like waving the white flag.

What Does Election Mean For Net Neutrality

News has been a little quiet on the FCC's net neutrality moves. It seems they were waiting till after the election before taking the next steps. The FCC is trying to find ways to force all broadband distribution to treat equally all online content, regardless of file size and usage demands. And their attempt to get a bill passed has now gotten more difficult. "The widespread Democratic losses made an already uphill battle even tougher. More than a dozen incumbent congressmen who had voted for a similar Net neutrality bill in 2006 were voted out of office on Tuesday, most notably Rep. Rick Boucher, D-Va., a 28-year House veteran." Without congressional support for net neutrality, a bill unlikely to go through.

Should all online content be treated equally? Shouldn't a free economy enable companies to pay for better positioning. Isn't that what the NY Jets and NY Giants did with PSLs for season ticket seats. If an online company is willing to pay to get it's content through the pipe faster, shouldn't they be allowed. And why can't the broadband platforms benefit from offering prime positioning. It seems that is the way the world is headed and net neutrality will become ancient memory.

No Remote Needed With Kinect

Microsoft has faced a number of challenges lately. Beyond its Windows Platform, it has yet to see success in mobile phones, tablets, or music devices. Its one exception, gaming. Their XBox 360 has been a hit and now they have enhanced its features with Kinect, a hands free, motion detector device, that recognizes players and puts them and their physical actions into the game. "By all accounts, Kinect is loads of fun. The black rectangular device, used in conjunction with Microsoft's Xbox 360 console, lets your on-screen character faithfully mimic your movements. It'll have you flailing your arms to steer on-screen cars using an invisible steering wheel." No fear of throwing your remote into your TV screen either!

Expectations for success are high with analysts expecting 5 million units being sold this Holiday season. But at its high price tag, X Box customers must determine whether the extra feature is worth it. "That said, it's not essential.. And at $150, it's a pricey proposition. Buy it with the console and a few $50 games, and the price tag for fun can quickly rise to $400." We currently have in our home the XBox, the Wii, and an old Playstation 2, not to mention a DSi, and ipods withe game apps. My son's big ask this Holiday is not the Kinect but to add the Live feature to his XBox. Which way to go?

Certainly, before we make the decision on purchasing the Kinect, we will see if the games themselves are of interest to him. if the games aren't compelling, why would the Kinect device be needed. I look forward to seeing how the Kinect games stack up to the Wii games. That may ultimately determine how successful the Kinect will be.

3D or not 3D

3D may be an opportunity for theater screens to charge a premium and make more money, but does it make sense for TV Networks. So now ESPN is questioning whether it is a business they want to pursue. "But the 24-hour sports network is already making noises about the future of its 3-D effort, with one exec admitting that there's 'very little indication' whether the channel will continue in its present form—or indeed, even survive—for a second year." How well 3D TVs do this Holiday season may indicate to ESPN and other networks how much money they want to invest into another version of their current networks. The addition of an HD channel proved to be an expensive investment and Networks weren't able to get the cable operators to pay more for an HD signal. I'm sure the concern is that they won't get an extra penny for a 3D version either.

Others question how much the consumer wants 3D in the home, especially if they need to wear glasses to view. And viewers don't tend to watch TV without also multi-tasking; reading the paper, talking to their spouse or friends, eating, drinking, answering the phone. Well you can see that unlike the theater experience when the viewer has little distraction; at home, there are too many little things that divert from the viewing experience. Putting glasses on, taking them off, and putting them on can get tiring. Until 3D is accessed without glasses, I expect the investment in 3D Networks will also slow.

Election Online

It's election day and so it it is time to go out and vote. So vote early and often. Seriously, just vote. It remains the one true way our voices are heard.

As it related to the changing entertainment landscape. Well just look around. Political messages are not just on TV, radio, and print. They are on Twitter, Facebook, web pages and other online tools. And so it is not surprising that election coverage will also be accessed both on traditional media and online. "ABC, CBS and PBS will each stream part of their election-night coverage on the Web on Tuesday, and NBC and ABC plan six hours of results lasting into early Wednesday morning. The networks will involve some of the biggest and most popular websites — Google, Facebook, YouTube and Yahoo! — in delivering their versions of the news."

Content, regardless of what it constitutes, is being consumed across all media platforms. Live coverage, whether sports or election results, demonstrate the need to make it accessible anywhere, anyhow, anytime. Consumers no longer want to wait to get home or for the morning paper to learn results. They want the news to follow them and not the other way around.

As the elections choose a winner, so too will media consumption demonstrate how far we are trending toward online and mobile consumption. Much has changed in the last decade. And nights like these demonstrate how much farther we can still go.

What Next

So it is the start of the new month, with thoughts of the holiday and new gadgets for the home, office, and play. Content remains king as Cablevision finally acquiesces to Fox's terms, as did Dish a few days earlier. Apple is suing Motorola for stealing patents and Tivo is still waiting to resolve its long term patent fight with Dish. New Apple iPads and iPhones are coming to market as are a multitude of other tablet-like products. And 3D remains the possible next great TV upgrade.

It is clear to me that the pace of change is quickening and competition is getting fiercer and fiercer. What is ahead for 2011. Soon the prognosticators will emerge with their insights on what to expect. For me, a few obvious and some not so obvious:

1. Verizon iPhone and iPad are instant successes
2. A major Cable Distributor merges with another
3. Tivo finally wins it's patent fight with Dish
4. Apple buys a content company
5. Comcast and NBC do indeed merge but with many caveats
6. And another network goes off the air in its contract dispute.

Put it in a jar. I'm picking early and I'm feeling confident in my predictions.

What are yours?

Cablevision and Fox End Fight

It took two weeks, but the stand off is over and Fox is back on the air in Cablevision homes. "Cablevision begrudgingly ended its dispute with News Corp. Saturday after several weeks of contentious negotiations over fees, getting Fox 5 back on the air just in time for the first pitch of the third game of the World Series." And in getting to agreement, I am confident in saying that some increase in fees occurred. How soon that increase to Cablevision customers remains to be seen, but I will make a first guess and say that it will happen between January 1 and February 1.

And it is leading us down the path to a la carte pricing, for both networks and individual shows. As bundled fees get more pricey, the customer is cord cutting. Moving toward content that is less expensive. And asking to pay less to get only the networks and shows they want to buy. Consumers will pay less at the end, but get less at the same time.

But back to the present. Cablevision customers were without their content for two weeks and will still end up paying more. The end didn't justify the means. The result for them is the same, an increase in fees. And as predicted, the customer continues to lose.

Cablevision-Fox Duel Continues

The NLCS, 2 World Series games, NFL Football, and of course all the Fox TV shows have been unavailable to Cablevision customers for too many weeks. And in that time, customers have been asking for rebates, others have switched to alternative distributors like FIOS and Direct TV, and others have purchased a digital antenna. And others have learned to simply do without. This battle simply demonstrates that both sides are wrong. Putting the consumer in the middle is not smart and forges bad feelings. Both Cablevision and Fox may hope the public has a short memory and will soon forget once this ugly business ends. But others will see this as a wake up call to what is going on in cable. I am not taking either company's side in this argument. Both are wrong; but at the end of the day, regardless of the outcome, the only party hurt will be the customer. And that is ultimately who needs to be protected.

Is Print Media Dead In 10 Years?

It's October 29, 2020 and you are drinking your coffee and eating your breakfast. Or you are starting your commute on the train or waiting for your flight to take-off. It is during these and other times, that you find folks reading their newspapers, magazines, and books. But according to this new study, we will all be doing these activities on our digital reader. Print will be dead. "The 24/7 Wall St./Harris Poll on American Media shows that 81% of people believe that the use of print news will decline. That, however, is cold comfort because 55% of those questioned said that traditional media will no longer exist in 10 years."

Now it is very clear where the trend is headed, so no doubt, print media in its traditional form will decline. But I very much doubt that it will cease to exist in 10 years. So I guess I am in the minority. These same type of statements have been said every time a new item was displacing an old one. And yet we still listen to radio, we still use trains, and we will still read print. The truth is that any change forces the older item to adapt or die. But the need for print will remain albeit in perhaps other opportunities. And the transition to an all digital world will not be accomplished within 10 years. I suspect it will take another decade or two. And yet there will always be a need for a printed copy. Whether that printing is done at printers or directly in the home, some form of paper will still be around. We may eventually share it, move it around, and consume media digitally, but we will also still like some of it to be printed.

Comcast Profits Grow, Subscribers Fall

Comcast reported its earnings and the news seems to make one wonder. Profits grew, less than the previous period, but higher than analysts expected. And in this economy, any profit is a good sign. Still, when you dig deeper into the numbers, how they got there indicates a growing problem. "That was the underlying question about Comcast’s third-quarter earnings, in which an overall strong performance was clouded by the loss of 275,000 basic cable television subscribers." So less customers are paying more for cable service.

More cable customers are buying additional services including phone and internet access. And profits reflect that growth as well as higher cable charges. At the same time, a quarter of a million customers chose to disconnect. It is now assumed that those customers are cord cutters, leaving cable but accessing content through other online means. But Comcast executives don't think this loss reflects either cord cutting or competition. "Instead, they blamed the weak economy for the losses and said that many who cut service did not flee to a competitor — like Verizon or DirecTV — but instead opted for free, over-the-air television." Wow! So cable service is now the great indicator of the loss of the middle class. It is the dividing line between the haves and the havenots. As the cost of service goes higher and higher, customers must revert back to over the air access and use their disposable dollars on the necessities of life. Has television gotten that expensive?

The sad fact is that price is driving customers away from traditional cable companies and to alternatives. Current FIOS and U-verse deals are cheaper and in a weak economy, customers are going to pay less to save money. Others, mainly the younger generation, are more comfortable getting content online. They are saving money by cord cutting. They embrace new technology and alternative content platforms. And they are being driven at a faster rate because the price of cable has gotten out of control.

Comcast will continue to draw more revenue from a diminishing base. And at some point, the growth of dollars per customer will not offset the total loss of customers. You can't squeeze blood from a rock and more and more customers have reached the limit on how much they are willing to pay to their cable provider. Pay attention to this quarterly trend of lost basic subscribers. It is a bigger problem and trying to minimize the issue will not make it go away.

Barnes and Noble Update The Nook

Just in time for the holidays the Nook e-book reader has been updated with new features. "The new touchscreen Nook Color, priced at $249, costs about half as much as an entry-level Apple Inc. iPad—but almost twice as much as an entry-level Kindle from Amazon.com Inc. and Barnes & Noble's existing monochrome Nook device."

The issue for Barnes and Noble is to identify who its competitors are and what positioning strategy they are impacting. Kindle is seen as the leader in the e-book category and the Apple iPad may compete but may not fit how readers wish to access their books. For them the iPad is too much and too expensive. For the Nook, the question becomes, do these new features and price point drive market share. Should more attention be made on price or should the push be on the exclusivity that B&N can add to the Nook that aren't available from Amazon. Clearly having brick and mortar stores must offer some advantages that they can capitalize on.

Currently the numbers don't look good for the Nook. "Barnes & Noble, which first unveiled the Nook last fall, has had difficulty catching up with market leader Amazon. Forrester Research estimates that by the end of this year there will be 6.1 million Amazon Kindles on the market in the U.S., but just 2.1 million Nooks and 2.2 million Sony Corp." The question to B&N remains, does this new version do enough to capture a bigger piece of the market. To me it is more than offering color. Take a page from the Apple playbook and figure out how to drive more usefulness into your product mix. A device does not run without software and content that is of value to the customer.

It is exciting to watch how far the e-book category is growing. Clearly it is the next physical media being transformed into our digital landscape. Watching the changes in TV, movies, and music, may give some hints to these players in acquiring and retaining customers.

How Should Apple Spend Its Money

Stockpickers and shareholders continue to speculate with how Apple should spend its earnings. Its top executives are cashing out their restrictive stock options and shareholders seek even more ROI. So what should Apple do? Release a dividend like Microsoft started a couple years ago. Split the shares 2:1 or more to encourage more investors to the stock and push higher the stock price. Or grow through acquisition.

Well the speculation has started. "Shares of Sony Corp rose nearly 3 percent at one point on Tuesday, but later retreated as analysts dismissed speculation that the electronics maker could be an acquisition target of Apple Inc." But if not Sony, who? Should they consider a web company like Yahoo, a CE firm like Panasonic, or perhaps Tivo. How about a content creator like NBC or CBS. Should Apple expand beyond its core strength of developing products that others can build software that Apple can resell. The App Store and iTunes are working quite well.

Apple has stated it has over 51 billion dollars in cash ready to use. But according to Steve Jobs, he is not under any urgency to spend it quickly. So far he has made all the right moves while its nearest competitor, Microsoft, has had a number of disappointments. For those that trust what Apple is doing, surely more good things will come.

Cablevision and Fox: Still No Deal

It is more than a week, the NLCS series is over and done and the World Series on Fox begins tomorrow night. And still no agreement. I have already heard from friends in the area; some were able to switch to FIOS and others only wish their area had FIOS. With no end in sight, a dish or antenna seems the next best solution.

In addition, the NFL Network has voiced an opinion. Not about Fox, but about their own need for binding arbitration to conclude a deal. Does any network get a break with Cablevision? The proof is in the pudding. And now the government is involve. "A senior Federal Communications Commission official wants to know whether Fox and Cablevision are negotiating in good faith or are spending all their time running attack ads against each other." To what extent the FCC can impact remains to be seen.

It may also reveal an even bigger issue between programmer and distributor. Part of the hang up is online content. Fox is a partner of Hulu and Cablevision may see Hulu as more a threat than complement. It also illustrates the challenges a Comcast-NBC deal may bring to the industry should the merger be allowed to continue.

Many want this Cablevision and Fox business to go away; unfortunately, its public airing of dirty laundry only goes to further exemplify the issues of content and distribution owned by one entity. On the surface it is about license fees; but dig a little more and it is clear the issues are far more complex.

Goodbye Walkman, CD Player Close Behind

Sony has finally decided to stop producing their once revolutionary cassette player. What, you thought it was already dead; me too. But the official word has just come down. "Sony has sold 220 million cassette Walkman players globally since the product's July 1979 debut that changed lifestyles by popularising music on the go." Except, I was expecting to hear that the portable CD player had also been retired. It seems cassettes have been dead for a good three years.

Sure, stores keep selling CDs but with the number of digital devices in the market place, is anyone using a portable CD player? CDs first appeared only a few years after cassette players; In the late 80's they appeared as options for cars. You would suspect that within the decade, CDs will stop being produced and all music will be sold as digital downloads. We are watching a migration from physical media to digital to eventually cloud. We will no longer physically hold onto something but access everything from the network. It is the direction we are headed or all media as we demand what we want, where we want, when we want, how we want.

It's Hard To Keep The Verizon iPhone Secret

Verizon Wireless had a very good financial quarter, beating the analyst estimates and enjoying high earnings. At the same time, the fourth quarter looks uncertain. The reason, the Apple iPhone. While AT&T grows customers at a high rate, Verizon growth is seen as below average.

Consumers are expecting the iPhone to launch on Verizon in first quarter 2011. And many are waiting to update their phone or switch providers. I am part of that former group. My contract with Verizon has been up for a while and I have no intention of changing my phone till the iPhone is released. I have seen what is out there and know what I want. I believe the same holds true for others. "Verizon Wireless, a joint venture of Verizon and Vodaphone Group, could sell 9 million iPhones a year, Charlie Wolf, an analyst at Needham & Co., has said." And both Apple and Verizon will enjoy a very healthy and profitable 2011.

Networks Say No To Google TV

Cablevision is fighting to not pay for Fox broadcast networks. The networks are excited to be getting license fees from other MSOs to improve their bottom line. So why would the networks want to hurt their new revenue model with a product meant to increase consumer cord cutting. "The move marks an escalation in ongoing disputes between Google and some media companies, which are skeptical that Google can provide a business model that would compensate them for potentially cannibalizing existing broadcast businesses." And by that, the networks mean this new second revenue stream.

Still isn't that what access on a website of full length programming entails. Those not willing to pay for HBO and Showtime simply wait a year for True Blood and Dexter to be released on DVD and out on Netflix. Some buy it later on iTunes. Like the movie industry with windows on release dates to different platforms, a similar model may need to be built for broadcast shows and the web. Watch Modern Family now on cable or 6 months later on Web TV.

Still it is hard for the networks to put the genie back in the bottle. Ad revenue through commercials is not enough and the networks are finally enjoying a second source of revenue through license fees. The challenge is that the consumer is tired of paying more and is ready for ala carte to pay less. They would rather just buy the show they want to watch and no longer the whole network. With free content on the web, the consumer is moving away from the cable box to a cheaper alternative. As the adage goes, "Why buy the cow when the milk is free".

Can Sirius Survive Without Howard Stern

The simple answer appears to be yes; in fact, the savings that Sirius gets by unloading Howard could offset debt and pay for alternative talent. "The company might return cash to shareholders through buybacks or dividends, Karmazin said. Such a move will become increasingly likely as Sirius XM continues to lower its debt and build cash flow, though there’s no target date for such action, he said."

Still, Howard remains a great fit for Sirius and while some audience might defect without him, investments in other alternative programming could bring in a new audience. And "Sirius XM stations, such as Raw Dog Comedy and Playboy Radio, would help retain many of Stern’s listeners if he left, he said."

Howard's contract doesn't expire till December, so there is still time for Howard Stern and Sirius to renew their vows.

No Sports For You

Cablevision and Fox are still fighting. And Cablevision customers have lost three NLCS games and Giants Football game. Unhappiness reigns.

Interesting to note that a Calevision offshoot, MSG is facing the same problem with Dish. MSG is off the air as contracts remain unsigned. And in both cases, Cablevision and MSG are requesting arbitration as the solution. PR ploy or sign of a real attempt to settle, who knows.

What I do know is that the distributor - content relationship has soured in the last few years. It has become increasingly acrimonious and what I would describe as a win - lose relationship. Each wants to win by getting the other party to lose. This strategy has a negative long term result and makes each subsequent negotiation that much worse. And frankly, it is becoming destructive to the health of the cable industry.

Fox - Cablevision Dispute Means No Baseball, No Glee

Cablevision customers missed out last night on game one of the NLCS Giants - Phillies series. Despite ongoing negotiations, neither side could agree on a new contract. And rather than think about the customer, the signal went dark. "News Corp./Fox has argued that Cablevision has focused more on getting the two parties into binding arbitration, which Fox rejects, than reaching a solution." Regardless, Cablevision customers missed Fox's Saturday Night programming.

Of the voices complaining, the one that seems silent is that of Major League Baseball. It is a key time for MLB and they should be furious that the number one market in the country lost a chance to watch their programming. Yet I have not heard or read a word from MLB voicing their dissatisfaction with this outcome.

Now there is one thing worth noting, Fox is a broadcast channel and consumers could have just as easily gone out to their local store, picked up a digital antenna, and tuned in. Yes, it is a backwards step, but it was the fastest solution. The fact that Fox ads argue to switch providers may be nice, but the time it takes to get an installer into the home to switch to another company may take at least a week. By then the negotiations will likely be resolved and Fox will be back on the air.

Should consumers still switch? Well this isn't the first time a network went dark with Cablevision. Those tired of these shenanigans may switch anyway knowing that this scenario will only play out again and again.

30 Rock Live

I loved 30 Rock Live last night. I loved it for many reasons but mostly because it took the chance. The early days of TV, the "Golden Days" as they are now fondly recalled, were all about live TV. Mistakes happened, but the adage "the show must go on" was always present. Not that anything unusual occurred, but the show had fun with it, including Tracy breaking character and a picture falling off the wall.

And the show was performed twice, once for the East Coast and again for the West Coast. Well conceived, well planned, and well executed. With inside jokes and tons of punch lines, [“Why do people do anything? Because they’re rich or they have Attention Deficit Dis — Hey! Look at Lutz’s shirt.”] 30 Rock continues to impress. And perhaps this type of stunt becomes an annual event. I hope new viewers came along for the ride; they are watching another classic on TV.

Verizon and Apple Selling The iPad

It's not the iPhone yet, but we know it is coming; the first official announcement is that an iPad through Verizon will be here shortly. "The two companies announced that Verizon Wireless will begin to sell iPads in retail stores at the end of the month. Verizon will offer three bundles, all featuring an iPad Wi-Fi model and a Verizon MiFi 2200 Intelligent Mobile Hotspot, which will allow it to operate on Verizon's 3G network." No AT&T exclusivity to worry about. No 4G yet either. But that only means next generations with better visuals and faster connections.

So Verizon gets the iPad by November and perhaps the iPhone by March. Important to have done this deal as the upcoming CES Show in January will most certainly be about the tablet and Apple will have lots of competition. Not that I think Apple is worried. As the leader in the space, their devices continue to out perform the field. Heck, Microsoft can't even compete.

I would not be surprised if the iPad is called the must have gift for the Holidays. With its ever-growing number of apps, its retail presence, and now its multiple communication platforms, the Apple iPad is poised for being more than an early adopter toy. It is becoming the must have device for the home.

Even cable operators are getting into the act, building iPad apps to turn the device into a remote for the TV. From access of all on demand content, a trove of data and art on every tv and movie show, and the ability to order and call up the program to the TV, the iPad is gaining even more traction as both an in home and out of home device.

So congrats to Verizon and Apple for finally coming together. The future for both keeps looking brighter!

Will AOL Buy Yahoo?

AOL has finally separated itself from Time Warner and been slowly, diligently, rebuilding itself into an online content powerhouse. In fact, I bet most of us visit a site that is owned by AOL. We simply don't think of AOL that way yet. We still know them as an internet service provider. Well sometimes big steps need to follow small steps and a Yahoo purchase fits that latter category. "Yahoo Inc.'s inability to snap out of a financial funk may be about to turn the embattled Internet company into a takeover target for the second time in less than three years." And the timing might be right for AOL to make that offer.

Both sides deny talks and some wonder if AOL can afford to make this purchase. Should it happen, on the surface it looks like a great fit. Would both brand names survive, I doubt it. To me, the Yahoo brand has more equity today than AOL. And AOL's content sites don't use AOL to push their positioning. Where synergies seem to exist, both companies would benefit from greater economies of scale. And the online reach could start to rival Google and others.

So is the speculation true or just an attempt to start the consideration process? Regardless, the evolution of any industry, including online, is consolidation. The big need to get bigger. The big fish swallow the small fish, and that is how the game works.

Cablevision Fox Negotiations Are Why Comcast and NBC Shouldn't Merge

In three days, Cablevision customers will either still be enjoying their Fox broadcast channel and cable nets or will find static. Just in time for MLB baseball on Fox. The ultimate loser in the negotiation is the consumer. No signal, no programming, higher license fees, higher pass through costs on the cable bill. Bad for all, but even worse, bad for Comcast and NBC.

Assuming the merger went through, how could Comcast prepare to drop a broadcast channel like Cablevision is threatening. Won't cries of unfair trade be screamed from door to door and across the legal system. Can real negotiation occur? How else can Comcast be assured they are getting the best deal? Too much pressure not to be seen as monopolistic.

The solution of having the government negotiate carriage deals for Comcast seems absurd. The government can't negotiate their own deals without overruns, misspending, and other bureaucratic bungling. Owning a major broadcast entity seems ripe for bigger problems then Comcast needs.

And what about the other side of the business, Universal Studios. As cable operators fight for shorter windows to get movies from theaters into homes ASAP, is Universal's best interest being considered. And doesn't this vertical ownership from creation to distribution remind anyone of the days when studios owned the theaters. Back then, the concern was that smaller theaters would get squeezed out of films because they weren't owned directly by the studio. For a while, laws were enacted to protect theaters from this monopolistic activity. Doesn't this merger have a similar smell?

So Cablevision and Fox will fight to the finish. Most likely, a deal WILL NOT get done till after the networks are off the air. It happened with ABC, It happened with Scripps. It seems likely it will happen again with Fox. Call it squeezing any last drop out of the negotiation, call it acrimonious. But it is now the SOP, standard operating procedure for negotiation between content and distribution. And it is the biggest issue facing the Comcast NBC Universal merger as well.

Magazines Not Dead

Don't worry friends, magazines aren't dead. In fact, the ad market is showing a bit of a rebound. "Paced by automotive and technology ads, consumer magazines posted ad-page gains of 3.6 percent in the third quarter compared to a year ago, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth for the embattled industry." A healthier economy with more jobs will increase consumer spending and increase advertising. People still read and printed media will not go away any time soon, although usage patterns are changing.

At the same time, there will continue to be a shift of reading from print to digital as an ever growing number of devices hit retail. The iPad will be sold in Walmart and Target, Kindles and other e-book readers continue to make a splash too. and online subscriptions are increasing. The Financial Times just announced some intriguing results of their subscription base, "In the five months since its launch, the (Apple iPad) app has attracted 400,000 downloads and accounts for 10% of new digital subscriptions". That is a huge percentage for such a short period of time.

These are exciting times for media with new opportunities emerging through technological changes. Embracing change and adapting to it will determine which publishers excel and which are destined to perish.

Hulu IPO Would Benefit Some

GE, Fox, and others built this online content distribution service from scratch and appear ready to hand it off to the market place with a stock offering. "Hulu is ready to raise $200 million to $300 million in a deal valuing the company at about $2 billion, and could file a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission before the end of the year, one source said." It also is an opportunity for its owners to reduce their ownership stake by selling stock to the public, too. So is the motivation to raise more capital and deliver an exit strategy.

Hulu's latest gambit has been to add a subscription package to its service, thus adding a second revenue stream to add to its ad model. As a private company, these figures don't need to be shared; as a public company, we would also be able to peek under the velvet curtain. An early IPO would come with the explanation that since the subscription service is new, a slow start could be easily explained. At the same time, investors would be able to quantify their ownership and perhaps even reduce their level of holdings. And if the Hulu model is shaky, a good time to take the money and run.

Will Hulu be a profitable company? Or is this IPO an opportunity to cash out their investment and play with just house money? Just wondering.

MGM To Enter Bankruptcy

When the Hollywood risks the loss of one of its once powerhouse studios, MGM, it is a clear sign in the sand that it is out with the old and in with the new. Old Hollywood rules are out, the new digital age of direct to home is gathering steam. If businesses don't change to meet the changing needs of their customer, then they will be replace by those willing to adapt in order to survive and excel.

And while bankruptcy won't put the MGM name into the grave, it will symbolize that the business model that once thrived is now outdated and studios must creatively find new doors to open.

Another Rumor on the Verizon iPhone

No confirmed news from either Apple or iPhone, in fact, just the opposite. Verizon announced no iPhone. It's just that no one believes them. Maybe to protect sales of current phones maybe to keep building the excitement for the eventual announcement. Regardless, the rumor of a Verizon iPhone won't go away. "The Wall Street Journal reports that the CDMA-based iPhone is real, the rumors of Verizon getting the device are substantiated, and an order has been placed with manufacturing plants for millions of the device."

So when does the AT&T exclusivity deal expire and when will Apple or Verizon finally make the "official" announcement. "One leading theory is that Apple and Verizon will officially make the announcement of a Verizon iPhone in early January at the world's biggest trade show, the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas." Don't expect the announcement any sooner. Or just ask AT&T when their deal ends; perhaps that is the ultimate reason why an announcement is on hold.

Howard Stern: Will He Leave Sirius?

Will Howard sign his contract? Others at Sirius have committed. "Today, reports emerged that the latest on-air talent to re-sign with the satellite radio company are Opie and Anthony, who are said to have signed on for two more years. The company also appears to be close to finalizing a deal with the National Football League." It may be a negotiation ploy, but I think Howard will eventually re-sign. He can set his terms, develop new shows and reap the rewards of producing and not just being the online talent.

Check out the article and vote your prediction.