Will Fox and Time Warner Cable Make A Deal

New Year's Eve is here and tomorrow a new years starts. But for customers of Time Warner Cable, tomorrow may mean no Fox broadcast or its sister cable channels like FX and others. That is because their carriage agreement expires today and has yet to be renewed. And so customers of Time Warner Cable have a few choices: 1. Wait and eventually they will settle, but till then miss Fox programming, most likely this weekend's fare of Bowl and NFL Games. 2. Switch providers to Telco or Dish, still unlikely to get switched by tomorrow so still out of luck short term. 3. Buy a digital antennae and at least get access to Fox Broadcast. 4. Go to a friend's house or local bar with a different provider to at least watch the games. 5. Complain to the FCC and your Senators and Representatives.

Who is right in this squabble between two mega companies? Neither. Both live in a world with obscene profits and ultimately the customer is in the middle. Could Time Warner swallow the extra buck to carry Fox? Of course. Does Fox need the whole dollar as an increase; probably not. Is there a middle ground; yes, the question in this and every negotiation is who blinks first. And because neither side especially likes the other, that negative relationship plays an unfortunate part too.

And so it will play out all day and night, taking people away from their families and friends most likely till 12:01 AM. Happy New Year!

Will Canoe Ever Work?

Will interactive advertising through the cable box become reality; at some point, yes. But will Canoe be the one to pull it off; well, let's just say that they are yet to meet a deadline. "Canoe earlier this summer abandoned plans for a targeted-ad service, which was to let advertisers run different spots in a national campaign by overlaying them on existing local cable ad zones." That essentially was meant to enable more ads to traffic inside a :30 second spot. Targeted to the household, each unique spot could be run inside one ad break, essentially quadrupling the number of ad positions to sell. Advertisers would pay the premium to get ads targeting their best customers, by household. Canoe failed to bring that opportunity to market.

"Instead, CEO David Verklin said in June, Canoe would turn its focus to launching the interactive RFI product in the fourth quarter." That means the opportunity for a consumer watching the ad to push a button on the remote and get more info on the ad; that could be a free sample, promotional information, a specific video, and perhaps even the chance to order a product. But now even that is delayed till Spring 2010. And while Canoe failed to hit the deadline, Cablevision has proven that an interactive model can be deployed. "Cablevision, independent of Canoe, this fall launched Optimum Select, an interactive advertising service that runs on the MSO's proprietary ITV platform." Can Canoe catch up or will they in fact latch on to Cablevision. For Canoe, the future remains cloudy.

TVs In Cars Forecast To Double By 2015

For us with kids, a TV screen in the car, especially for long trips, has been an easy way to entertain while driving. Thanks to a large selection of DVDs, some of which we never get tired of watching over and over, the TV has great value. But what if there is something live on TV or simply a show that is always enjoyed, even with commercials, how can linear TV be enjoyed in the car? Not Direct TV or Dish, but perhaps cellular phones can help.

"For broadcasters, the major mobile TV play is being led by the Open Mobile Video Coalition (OMVC), which represents more than 800 local TV stations that plan to use the ATSC's mobile digital TV broadcasting standard. The OMVC has lined up device manufacturers that plan to sell products that work with the DTV specification, and the group plans to launch a customer trial in Washington, D.C., in 2010." But how about connecting a FLO TV enabled device to a jack and connect to the TV screen. "FLO TV is currently available through AT&T Wireless and Verizon Wireless and via a Qualcomm-developed handheld device with a lineup of more than a dozen live channels, including CNBC, ABC Mobile, Disney Channel, Fox Mobile, MTV, NBC2go and Nickelodeon." Or even better, why not work with a satellite delivered device that is already in the car.

It is the time for Sirius to enter the video world for mobile entertainment. And to ease that transition, it is time for Direct TV to buy Sirius. The combination of the two entities could be the best synergy to enable mobile TV to work. Sirius will not survive on radio alone and Direct TV needs additional advantages to overtake cable. This could prove a win win to both companies and to the public as well.

Fox and Time Warner Cable Battle - Customers Will Ultimately Lose

Ahhhh, remember the simple life when all there was to watch was free, over the air, broadcast TV. Just adjust your antenna and watch. Then cable came along and offered a clearer transmission and ultimately more channels. Then technology brought video recording and ultimately on demand. And with each change, the price for watching TV rose and rose and rose.

Welcome to today where broadcasters own cable channels and leverage is used to assure that dollars get spent on carriage of both broadcast, general cable nets as well as niche ones. The allure of subscription fees to augment the revenue from advertising is too compelling to ignore. So broadcasters switched from "must carry" to "Retrans" to force contract negotiation. Fees go up and cable customers pay more.

So today you have Time Warner Cable fighting Fox and Mediacom fighting Sinclair. Timing for contracts always seem to expire New Years Eve causing great despair as the clock is used to force settlement before time runs out and a holiday is upon us. Just in time for folks to be huddled around the TV, set to watch a movie or a college bowl game. Ultimately, more money will be spent and those costs will be passed on in cable bills.

And as broadcast signals have become digital, antenna reception more problematic, customers have been forced to carry cable to watch their shows. Will customers switch to avoid losing their Fox or will they wait and watch the drama unfold. A deal will be reached, maybe by December 31, maybe not. But shortly thereafter and it will then be another cable network and another cable operator's turn to go through this same dance. It's happened before and it will happen again. And once the customer gets tired of this ongoing fight, they will switch to internet viewing and simply find an alternative choice to satisfy their TV addiction.

Entertainment Trends From Nielsenwire

According to Nielsen, here are the top trends in entertainment in 2010:

1. Digital media shows solid growth.
2. New functionality and price drops increase gaming usage.
3. Rehashed, replayed games risk saturating the gaming market.
4. Sports globalization offers a new range of opportunities.
5. Piracy is a major concern for artists, authors and publishers.


While I agree that digital media will grow, that trend has been present for years. Web surfing, e-mail, e-books, iPhones, and more have dominated the landscape. There use will continue to dominate other media.

And gaming is becoming more universal, not just on in home devices like Xbox and Wii, but on smart phones and other mobile devices too. Gaming though is an addiction, a drug, that takes time away from more useful ventures. It may be fun, it may be challenging, and it certainly is engrossing; but, gaming does not lead to productivity. It is a time suck that needs to be better managed or our youth, and perhaps us, too, will find her minds numbed from staring at gems popping, tiles moving, virtual soldiers shooting, and farmers plowing non-existent farms. It is one trend that is growing and becoming potentially more problematic, too. Unfortunately, I also encourage it in my home. The only solution, not to do away with it entirely, but to limit time spent so that it does not become a downward spiralling addiction.

And with competition for gaming, Game Stop has emerged as a key player for finding and purchasing games. Both new and used games are available for purchase. Replayed games are good for the pocketbook, tougher on new sales. Would you rather pay $19 for Madden '08 or $50 for Madden '10? Seems obvious which one is most appealing.

Sports globalization. In 2010 we get both the Winter Olympics and World Cup, 2 global competitions. Certainly of more world interest than the USA annual events known as the Bowl Games, Super Bowl, NCAA Basketball, World Series, etc. Two global competitions in one year, but a trend past 2010, I'm not so sure.

And lastly, Piracy. A trend that has been around since music went digital years ago. As long as content costs money, folks will look for ways to get that same content for less money or nothing at all. Before digital, people went into movie theaters and illegally filmed new releases just to resell them for less. Digital copies simply makes the process less cumbersome. A trend, no; a reality, yes.

Can Leno Be Saved? Let Me Program NBC!

The Jay Leno Show at 10 pm is a failure and NBC affiliates seems to agree. "'The handwriting is on the wall,' Alan Frank, who runs two NBC stations including the affiliate in Detroit, told the trade publication Broadcasting & Cable over the weekend." Affiliates have had enough and are dropping the show for local content. Heck David Letterman failed as a daytime talk show. It shows that success in one time period does not necessarily guarantee success in another time spot.

But there is a solution for NBC that brings affiliates back and saves Jay Leno. Move The Jay Leno Show to 10 PM on Saturday night, a night most recently used to showcase repeats from the week prior. As a one night a week variety show, Jay can focus on variety acts, comedy, and monologue. In fact, make it live to show that anything is possible. A greater lead in to news and perhaps to Saturday Night Live as well. Frankly, one show a week is enough for Jay. Think Ed Sullivan and Carol Burnett and design accordingly.

And what to do with 10 pm Monday through Friday? Well there is always Law and Order until new shows are ready to premiere. Other suggestions, bring back a good western and a good family drama, and a good guest filled episodic. Get back to the roots of good television. Otherwise, we can watch NBC continue to suffer.

Kindle Doing Great; Should E-Reader and Nook Worry?

Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah, Kindle sales seem to be the stocking stuffer as other devices lose market share. "Kindle device and book sales will total $1.6 billion for 2010. That's 5% of Amazon's total sales." Sell the device and build a store to deliver content. Amazon is emulating the Apple App Store and taking advantage of changing trends. Can Barnes and Noble and Borders survive as they have been slower to adapt.

I currently don't own a Kindle and keep waiting for a device that provides color as well as black and white content, in an easy to hold, light, and nimble device. Perhaps my hesitancy reflects others that have not become early adopters. I do believe the company that delivers this device first will ultimately win the war. I expect the Kindle folks are working furiously to build such a device so the others better hurry.

Magazines Get Ready for Tablets

Take control of your distribution and perhaps the magazine business isn't too bad. Thanks to Benjamin Franklin and the printing press, newspapers and magazines have enjoyed a couple centuries of success. But new technology has threatened to derail it and the solution is painfully clear, adapt or die. Obviously, the switch over to a pure digital play is not realistic; rather, a measured approach, reaching new adopters and maintaining print subscription with current ones. Thus any subscription must give you both a digital and print copy of your content.

As we trend toward devices that best display printed content, current opportunities exist with iPhones, Blackberries, Kindles, and of course the computer. Newer devices are on the horizon. "Although publishers have not exactly been on the cutting edge of technology, two magazines — Esquire and GQ — have developed iPhone versions, while Wired and Sports Illustrated have made mockups of tablet versions of their print editions, months before any such tablets come to market. Publishers are using the opportunity to fix their business model, too."

And Apple is lurking in the background not ready yet to release their tablet design. I look forward to seeing what they have in store for us!

367 magazines shuttered in 2009

At first blush, this decline may seem disturbing, but not unexpected. Shifting a print model to a digital one is not an easy task. At the same time though, new magazines also emerged. "... 247 magazines launched during the same period. Regional titles composed the largest category on both sides of the ledger." Also it should be noted that the pace of closure appears to be slowing down; the strong survive, the weak unfortunately die. It demonstrates though that opportunity exist even among a downturn. Print magazines need to embrace new distribution models; content remains king and eager to be consumed. New ways to get to the consumer through e-readers and iPhones may just be their salvation.

Sirius Gets a Holiday Present; Thank You iPhone

Radio is meant to be enjoyed everywhere; not just in the car, but wherever, whenever. And Apple's iPhone just may be making it possible. "From now on, every Apple iPhone will feature Sirius XM’s full internet content offerings. It will also include Howard Stern as a part of the Pocket Tunes Radio application on Apple iTunes Store." Sounds too good to be true and certainly it would be a game changer for Sirius. Next to learn, what the subscription cost will be and how it will be sold.

Not much news yet on it, so hear is hoping that it true. And if it comes to iPhone, maybe other devices will be next. Content is meant to be mobile, both video and audio, what you want, when you want, where you want.

Consumers Want Their TV Where They Want, Too!

Need a study to prove the obvious. Well here it is. Viewers want their TV content - when they want and where they want. It is the three W's - what, when, where! "The study found that younger consumers and early adopters would be particularly interested in watching local TV on their gadgets, particularly local news and weather information." They don't want to pay for it either. Local means broadcast and means access to news, weather and sports.

More screens means more time to watch and that should be good news to advertisers. Measuring usage across multiple screens is still a hot topic, but knowing that the content is valued and watched should be good news to the local broadcaster. "Broadcasters have been making noises for years about offering mobile TV, which would allow consumers to watch local TV broadcasts on their phones and handheld devices, but the technology has been slow to get off the ground... Station owners say they want to use their airwaves to offer more digital channels, including new channels for mobile gadgets." Maybe this study will push them to more quickly change and adapt.

No More Cable Bills

Check out the article in today's New York Times by Nick Bilton. He and his wife weaned himself off a monthly cable bill by installing a mac mini, Xbox, and a wireless remote. With access to Boxee, Hulu, Netflix, and others, and the ability to watch free broadcast channels, as well as gaming, his entertainment is complete. Click below to access.

"Welcome to our living room. Take a seat, make yourself comfortable. Would you like to watch a movie, or the new “Family Guy” episode?"

U-verse TV Hits 2 Million Mark

Competition is fierce and the telco vs. cable battle lines will only get fiercer. As AT&T reaches 2 M cable customers and Verizon Fios heading toward 3 million, telco is taking a bigger and bigger chunk of the map. "As of the end of September, U-verse TV was available to about 15 million homes in 22 states. The U-verse fiber-to-the-node network currently passes more than 20 million homes." And because a telco gain tends to be a cable or satellite loss, every basic subscriber matters in the fight for dominance in the industry.

Telcos need cable subs to replace loss of phone and DSL customers. For cable, phone remains a win-win upgrade, as does hi speed connections. But if the base for cable declines, as recent quarter have indicated, eventually cable will have less customers to upsell phone and hi speed to. And so the marketing of these provider services, for telco, cable, and even satellite, should only get fiercer in 2010.

In addition, Comcast particularly has to be careful as it attempts to get its NBC Universal purchase approved by the FCC and FTC. Programming differentiation has played a big part. Sports is raising its ugly head today. Telco and satellite want access to the Comcast Sports Net and cable and telco want access to the NFL Sunday Ticket. At some point, programming differentiation will become a non-factor in marketing; rather, it will be about service and price. And hopefully, better pricing and service leads to a better customer experience.

How Much Is A Video Rental Worth

When DVDs hit the market, purchase price was nearly $20. The rental market seemed an ideal opportunity to watch the movies you like at a reasonable cost. Blockbuster zoomed in at one price point and Netflix came later with a more convenient distribution strategy, straight to the mailbox and no late fees. Yet the price point stayed strong despite competition. Until now. Redbox has turned the model upside down and in turn has caused problems, both for its competitors and for the Hollywood studios themselves. Rentals for a buck.

And it has financially hurt the movie industry. "A regional economic group estimates that dollar DVD rentals from Redbox and others has cost the entertainment industry $1 billion and that the "ripple effect" will cost hundreds of millions more." Hollywood is fighting back and studios are suing to prevent Redbox from renting at this low price. In return, Redbox is suing the studios for antitrust. A long battle will ensue.

Of course low prices mean that the consumer wins. Business competition ultimately leads to better pricing and service for the customer. Can movies still be made when revenues are cut. Perhaps the cost of movie-making is what is really at stake. Does it need to cost that much money to make them. Independent filmmaking has shown the low cost, high quality movies can still be made. And so the solution for studios, cut your production costs.

As the DVD rental business faces pricing issues, what will it mean for VOD. At prices nearly 5 times higher, will consumers switch from VOD consumption to Redbox as well? Should cable be worried and do they need to re-evaluate their pricing model and their marketing message?

Redbox is a game changer in the industry and the result of the upcoming legal battle could have broader implications. $1 to rent verse $5 to watch VOD; in today's economy, the answer is pretty obvious.

Americans Still Watch 99% Of Video On TVs: Nielsen

How would you prefer to watch your video. Currently it is the big screen; in fact, that is how 99% of us prefer to watch. "Nevertheless, video consumption among Web and DVR users is growing fast: On a monthly basis, minutes spent watching Internet video watching increased 35% in the third quarter and time-shifted TV viewing jumped 21%."

Why is online important. There are a number of reasons: 1. More offerings - in fact beyond the ability to catch up on current TV shows, there are shows that are no longer on TV or VOD that people seek out to watch. And for those looking beyond mainstream, alternative and short form programming exists only in this spectrum. 2. Search - ever try finding a program by hunting and pecking on VOD or searching a cable TV guide. It is horrific compared to the ease and flexibility of online. 3. Mobility - sometimes you can't get to a TV; how great that the TV can get to you. 4. Flexibility - think DVR and VOD to the nth level. Online lets you both find a show and go to a time spot in the show. Try fast forwarding VOD and ask yourselves why do I need to waste 5 minutes to move ahead to the 1 hour 10 minute mark. 5. Simple - try navigating the on demand platform and you wish it was simpler, faster, and better than what exists online. It's hard to sell cable as "advanced" when its functionality is so 10 years old.

So don't be too fooled by the percentages. Clearly TV is the dominant viewing experience, but online is not going away. Rather, it is only getting more convenient and user-friendly. It is time, however, for the cable box and its functionality, to emulate the online experience.

Eventually Nothing Free On The Web

The web has been a valuable tool. Need information for a school project, search the web for free. The result - the end of Encyclopedia sales. Want to listen to music or purchase an album - result - the closing of music stores like Tower Records and HMV. And seeking articles on news and current events or perhaps just a little gossip - result - the collapse of magazines and newspapers.

Well the last group is fighting back. "Consumers will soon have to start paying for news and entertainment they have become used to getting for free on the Web as media firms face the reality that advertising can no longer foot the bill." And Google, with a need to keep their suppliers happy, may help. "Web search leader Google has promised publishers ways of earning advertising revenue alongside news stories, but most big news organizations scoff at the idea that such ads are enough to fund the production of quality journalism." Is it enough?

Search is a funny game and Google, while the current leader, isn't the only game in town. Will Bing, Yahoo, and others follow or will they revolt and find alternative ways to give consumers the search results they need. Or will we eventually move down that slippery slope and find ourselves getting only a couple of lines from an article before being force to "subscribe" in order to see the rest of the story. It seems to be working for The Wall Street Journal" and Murdoch may force this move on its other media properties. Or be proven a genius and others will follow.

Can Sony Bounce Back?

Can Sony become the innovative leader again. Consumers once turned to Sony for its Walkman, Handycam, and other products and the Sony brand was synonymous with technological superiority and top of the line product. Sony indeed produces a very expensive HD TV set, but it is losing share quickly to other rivals that are bringing lower price and innovation into the home. So what is Sony to do?

"Sony’s chief executive, Howard Stringer, has a grand idea: an all-in-one online network that pipes Sony’s films, music, games and other content to its TVs, Walkmans and PlayStation game machines." But isn't Apple already doing this? What's so great and different about this. Stringer has been there for a while but each of its product line is losing quickly to others. Playstation to Wii and X Box, Walkman have already lost the battle to ipods, and LCD TV to Vizio and LG, and Handycam to Cisco's acquisition of the flip.

Sony has much more to worry about! Connectivity is great, but consumers are not using Sony products. It's time for some innovation and state of the art products to regain market share.

NBC To Have A New Owner

Vivendi is out, Comcast is in. "Comcast Corp. agreed to take majority ownership of NBC Universal from General Electric Corp. in a complex deal valued at more than $30 billion, ending the conglomerate's more than two-decade rule over the peacock network and satisfying the cable giant's push to own more content."

I remember when RCA owned NBC and when it was sold to GE, Dave Letterman tried unsuccessfully to deliver a gift basket welcoming his new owners. Not well received by GE but certainly great television. That awkward relationship between the NBC and GE has remained ever since, with creativity often hitting a wall with Six Sigma. So an era is finally ending and another one is poised to begin. Should all the legal issues be resolved, Comcast will be the next owner of NBC.

So what does it mean for the broadcast entity and its library of cable networks? Will Bravo, USA, et al become the favorite kids while NBC, the broadcast channel and its affiliated stations around the country, are treated more as Cinderella was to her step mother? Will they simply be cast aside or embraced? Certainly the NBC Sports entity has value as a competitive product to ESPN, but what of the news division? And how can Comcast the distributor of cable, telco, and hi speed partner with ESPN on one side of its business and compete with them on another? I'm sure Disney-ESPN, Verizon, AT&T, and other companies as well as the FCC will have lots to say about this sale as well.

Change is coming but how it shakes out is far, far from over!

Rent or Buy, You Tube Goes After iTunes

Would you rather pay $2 to download and own content or pay $2 to simply stream and rent it. That seems to be the choice that You Tube is bringing to the public. Free content works for only so long and on-line advertising revenue alone isn't enough to support the venture. So next step for You Tube, on-line rental. "Google is talking to networks about a pay-per-episode plan that would put it in direct competition with similar offerings from Apple's iTunes and Amazon, according to MediaMemo, an industry blog that first reported the talks." For Google, it's another opportunity to build a revenue model. For Apple and Amazon, it should only remind them that other competitors are out there ready to strike. Hulu and Fancast might just be next.

Certainly, Google has the deep pockets to test the water and doesn't think logic should get in the way of a potential revenue stream. Will it pay off; probably not but then the next step will be to convert from stream to download or monthly subscription. And this could lead to some nice competition and perhaps lower pricing in the long run for the consumer.

"I'm Outa Here"; Vivendi Agrees to Sell NBC

Money talks and Vivendi walks! GE found the number that Vivendi took to sell its 20% back to GE and opening up round two, a majority stake to Comcast. "Under terms of the deal, G.E. will buy Vivendi’s 20 percent stake in NBC Universal for about $5.8 billion. It removes one of the few remaining hurdles in its plan to sell control of the television and movie company to Comcast in a $30 billion agreement that reflects the changing landscape of broadcast television." But what does it mean for NBC. Is it a good thing having a cable distributor as your owner or is it simply "out of the frying pan and into the fire." Business can take many funny turns.

A potential sale of NBC to Comcast will not be an easy one and will come with many hurdles. Expect FCC scrutiny and perhaps a number of lawsuits from other distributors and programmers weighing in on unfair competition. I suspect that a sale will also result in a dismantling of NBC properties. While the cable nets and movie studio are highly valued by Comcast, it is hard to believe that they want to involve themselves in its other businesses, namely broadcast and theme parks. In order to get this deal approved, promises might have to be made to spin off these businesses into a separately traded company. Comcast gets what they want and NBC Network becomes a standalone company.

DVR turning Leno slot into a black hole

Headline in this morning's NY Post. But not a surprise; in fact the very reason NBC stated for turning 10pm over to Leno. DVR use is rising at 10 pm and Leno may be the cause. "DVR usage, which like live programming is measured by Nielsen Co., is up by 1.4 household ratings points in the 10 p.m. slot, while NBC has lost an average of 1.8 points compared to fall 2008." Consumers are turning regularly to their DVR and NBC saw Leno as a way to put a Live-like experience on in the spot to divert DVR activity and reach the live viewer. NBC says they expected lower ratings but felt that the lower revenue potential was offset by a much lower cost of production. While no one has seen their books on Leno, it clearly has backlashed on shows before it as well as the news and late night programming after it. And viewers are using their DVR more to watch Law and Order at 10p, by recording it at 9 pm.

Ratings for Leno slide and NBC is consistently in fourth place, except when they present Sunday Night Football. One more month and they lose that night, too. Perhaps that is the indication when Leno will end. Should we count January as the countdown to Jay Leno being axed. Just watch how reruns do better against Leno in December and that may further indicate that its demise is near.

New Media Can Save The Magazine Industry

News Flash - people still read! People seek content and view it in ways that adapt to their lifestyle. In that regard, we've become a nation on the go, needing the latest information in the shortest amount of time. Why is traditional mail decreasing; because, email brings us communication faster. And now instant messaging becomes faster than email. The same holds true for print magazines. Consumers want their content at their fingertips and they want it now. Digital media can save the print media industry.

And perhaps the magazine industry is finally taking notice. "Some of the magazine industry’s biggest names are on the verge of forming a new company that would allow them to take the digital future into their own hands. The company would make up one of the biggest alliances among rival publishers ever formed in print media, with Time Inc., Condé Nast and Hearst all expected to join, houses that together publish more than 50 magazines, including The New Yorker, Vanity Fair, Vogue, Time, People, Sports Illustrated, Esquire and O, The Oprah Magazine."

There is leverage in aggregating resources, building out common platforms and striking deals. The rise of the smartphone, iPhone, Kindle, and Nook, should pave the way for new revenue streams. Initially, the industry should follow the Wall Street Journal route and offer a digital subscription with the print one. Heck even DVDs offer a digital copy with their disc.

After NBC-Comcast, Who Is The Next M&A Target

Whether Vivendi agrees to sell its stake to GE or not, the media industry is poised for even more merger and acquisition activity. So what will be the next announcement. Is News Corp and Time Warner interested in buying MGM? Is Direct TV about to merge with AT&T or Verizon? Or will they buy a Sirius instead? And what happens to Cablevision after it spins off its MSG unit? Will it sell off its cable nets or finally sell its NY cable systems to Time Warner?

There are also a number of other independent cable networks in need of some leverage. Which one of those could be next to be bought by a bigger fish - HGTV, Hallmark, or others?

Always fun to speculate, and the announcement always seems to surprise some. But in a maturing industry facing consolidation because of technological and other changes, growth through acquisition is no surprise at all. The question remains, who is next.

Will Vivendi Approve the Sale of NBC

When M&A activity takes place in the open, it certainly lets everyone show their hands. As Comcast and GE try to set the value for a deal, the third party, Vivendi gets to pull some leverage. And so this sale will not be easy as Vivendi plays a bit of hardball. "General Electric and Vivendi are at least $1bn apart in their valuation of the French group’s stake in NBC Universal, damping hopes of a quick resolution to a stand-off that is holding up Comcast’s planned bid for a majority stake in the US broadcast, cable and film group."

Does Vivendi need the money? Does it pay to wait and see. They certainly have the option each year to sell their piece of NBC; do they really need to sell when NBC's value is depressed for many reasons. "The annual window for exercising that option opened on Sunday and will close on December 10. " This fourth place network has purposely put Jay Leno on at 10 pm. Was it done in anticipation of depressing the value of Vivendi's stake. GE would maintain ownership. Perhaps they felt that once Vivendi was out, they could raise its value with better programming again and then sell its remaining share to Comcast at an even higher amount. Sneaky, if true.

if Vivendi is simply using this leverage to force a higher price, does it make more sense to go out as an IPO. "Under an agreement struck when Vivendi sold Universal Studios to the GE-controlled NBC in 2004, Vivendi can force an initial public offering of its stake unless GE offers a more attractive price." Would Comcast still buy up shares in an open market or does the price become unattractive to them? This soap opera drama could become the stuff that might soon air where Leno now sits. Let's call this the new "Dallas" and wait for the Ewings to make a play. Now that was good TV.

Cable Has Spent $935 Million On CableCards

Set top boxes are supposed to require cablecards so that they can make sure that they do indeed work. "s intended to improve the way CableCards work in third-party devices, by forcing cable operators to use the technology themselves." Yet I doubt that if you ask a consumer what a cablecard looks like, they could tell you or show you where it is in their cable box. And ask a consumer if they have seen an ad talking about cablecards, and the answer will be no. Cablecards have yet to make an impact in the market. In fact, try to get a cablecard, say for a Tivo HD device, from your cable company and you face more resistance than support. They will remind you, that the card won't enable VOD and other interactive features that the set top box offers.

And truthfully, aren't we beyond the need for cards to verify third party boxes. Can't the consumer electronic industry with cable come up with algorithms that can insure that there is both security and functionality. In my estimation, cablecards are a joke, a delay tactic that has yet to make an impact in third party devices.

TVs are being equipped to get broadband connectivity directly to provide interactivity. Once connected, TV sets and game consoles are getting content without cable. Just yesterday, Sony announced their new agreement with Netflix. "Users can now access the DVD rental company's Watch Instantly catalogue on Sony BRAVIA TV W5100, Z5100, XBR9, and XBR10 series in 40-inch, 46-inch and 52-inch screen sizes; the Sony N460 Network Blu-ray Disc Player; and via Sony's BRAVIA Internet video link module." If you can't work with the cable industry, work around them. Who needs a cablecard? Truthfully, the cable industry cause they are risking their subscribers defection from premium channels, VOD, and perhaps even basic cable!

Karmazin Sticking with Sirius; Not Considering NBC-Comcast

Why would Mel Karmazin ever think of leaving his number one spot for working under another back inside cable. Already having that experience with Viacom, why expect that it will be any different at a proposed NBC-Comcast company. Well, to squash those rumors, Mel addressed them recently. "Speaking Monday to Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Network, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin said he's got no intention of leaving the satellite radio company." Frankly, I was a little surprised to hear that it would be a possibility. Sirius has an opportunity to be so much more. Rather, Mel should stay close with John Malone and consider heading a merger of Direct TV and Sirius. That could provide greater synergy and give Mel a bigger company to run.

Time Warner To Spin Off AOL Dec. 9

According to Time Warner, content and distribution don't mix. There is no synergy and no gain to try to build out a vertical business that both creates content and distributes on a cable or web platform. First came the separation of the cable business from networks and studios and in a few weeks the web. On December 9, AOL will no longer be a Time Warner company. "AOL common stock will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange Dec. 10 under the symbol 'AOL.' On Dec. 9, Time Warner shareholders of record as of Nov. 27 will receive one share of AOL stock for every 11 shares of Time Warner stock they own."

It was AOL that many years ago actually purchased Time Warner. But the parent soon became the child and now the orphan to the business. As broadband overtake dial up, AOL lost subscribers. It switched from pay to free and built up unique branded content to keep users engaged with their site. But it could never reach its former profitable glory and Time Warner saw AOL as its albatross.

To be fair, Time Warner didn't do much to engage AOL either. At the time it was purchased, it had its own broadband service, Roadrunner. Rather than combine the entities, it allowed them to compete with each other with its own customer base. AOL lost then and AOL lost now.

For stockholders of AOL, the question will be whether to hold onto these new shares or trade them while they still have value. Can AOL survive as a standalone entity? For Time Warner, the answer may simply be, "who cares."

Twitter usage falls for second month

Is Twitter in trouble? Are users less enthralled with the service? Does this decline in usage indicate a trend? Certainly the numbers may not paint a true picture. "The number of Americans using Twitter dropped 8 percent in October from September, marking the second monthly decline for the social-networking site this year, according to research firm ComScore Inc." Twitter is being incorporated into a number of other sites, Facebook, Linked In, etc.; are they being counted, too? I am not a fan of Twitter but I didn't expect the Twitter train to fall off the tracks that fast. Still, I find myself less glued to a screen with Twitter updates. In the meantime, let's just keep watching the activity to see if this decline continues into month 3.

Cable Basic Subscribers Continue to Decline

Quarter after quarter, basic cable subscription continues to drop. While cable continues to sell more services to is customers, their core base is declining. And where are they headed? Well, with basic subs are leaving cable every quarter, telco and satellite basic subs are increasing.

Eventually, that declining base will limit who can be upsold; cable is losing its base and those are the folks that buy high speed and wireline services. Its time to start differentiating cable from its competitors; better converter boxes and top service. Otherwise, cable will keep bleeding subs and find itself losing revenue in as prices drop to match competitive pressures.

Blockbuster's loss widens in Q3

Blockbuster is certainly having its issues. With competition from cable's on demand platform, Netflix, Redbox, and other online sources, consumers feel less compelled to go to a big box store to rent movies. And so the financial news released from them should come at no surprise. "Blockbuster said today that its third-quarter loss widened from a year earlier, as the largest U.S. movie-rental chain closed stores, saw a 14% drop in same-store sales and conserved cash by cutting advertising costs in preparation to refinance debt." And while cost cutting can slow down the bleeding, the bigger issue will be how to get more consumers back into their stores to rent from them.

Among the ideas, kiosks similar to Redbox, that bring the movies to other retail outlets in an easier to touch strategy. Another is to emulate Netflix and its online approach to extend the value of the relationship with the consumer. All me too, follower strategies, that show little of Blockbusters leadership potential. Lastly, they will expand their inventory by renting and selling video games as well. Per the report, video games represents their next big opportunity.

So if I were Game Stop, it is time for a preemptive stop. Currently they offer used games in addition to new ones. How about expanding that model with rentals. Consumers already see Game Stop as the destination for video games; this new venture would add revenue to their coffers while taking more wind out of Blockbuster's sails (sales, too).

Greed Will Change the national Broadcaster and Affiliate Relationship

In these economically challenging times, our true intentions become clear. And in the TV world, parents eat their young! "ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox each are angling to get a cut of the compensation -- known as retransmission consent -- that cable and satellite companies pay the affiliates to carry their signals." Doesn't that national carriage enable you to charge more for your advertising. Do the local affiliates get a piece of the national buy, too? Perhaps the whole model needs to be reexamined given these changing times.

It seems we have gotten to a point where local affiliation is of lesser importance than being hyper local. Affiliates need to focus more on their own communities and less on the national programming. Heck with NBC pushing The Jay Leno Show, affiliates should be asking for compensation from NBC. Talk about hurting local news ratings at 11am.

So why shake up the model now? As ad dollars have moved from broadcast to cable, new revenue streams must be found. "Retransmission revenue isn't a huge piece of the broadcast pie, but it's a lucrative and growing one. SNL Kagan estimates total retransmission dollars at $739 million this year, but expects that to grow to $1.3 billion by 2012." Thus the desire to share in that pie. Could a revolt spell the beginning of the end of this national-local model, let's wait and see.

LinkedIn and Twitter link up - and Linkedin may have jumped the shark

According to reports, Twitter and Linked in have linked up enabling users to broadcast each others services on their respective sites. "Allen Blue, a co-founder of Twitter who is its vice president of product strategy, said LinkedIn members would be able to automatically post recent Tweets if they wanted." Perhaps good for Twitter as it adds more objective information, but does it jump the shark for Linked in? I have grown to like Linked in more and Twitter less; I find myself with less to post, but appreciate reading linked in posts of new connections made, groups joined, and updated news on their resume. I care much less what they ate for lunch or where they ate it. I'll let Twitter do that and not "check the box" to share the data on linked in. And I appreciate the same option NOT to read others' Tweets on my Linked in home page. Otherwise, Linked In will get too congested and stop working effectively for me. And it will have "Jumped The Shark".

Dish Files To Trademark 'TV Everywhere'

It's one thing to enable convergence of video across platforms, another thing to name it. Building a brand around the concept may simply be the first step. And with that in mind, Dish is quick to try and trademark the "TV Everywhere" banner. Will cable let go easily? "As outlined by Time Warner Inc. CEO Jeff Bewkes, for example, 'TV Everywhere' encompasses Web-based video services available only to pay-TV subscribers provided through cable, satellite or telco TV operators in cooperation with programmers. Dish representatives would not say whether the company is developing a service along those lines." That definition certainly goes beyond Dish's plan with Slingbox. Does Dish have a legal leg to stand on or is the definition already considered generic and not accessible to branding.

Obviously, there are plenty of other ways to brand the ability to watch TV programming across multiple non TV devices. Quick, get the marketer creative juices going. My suggestions: 1. TV Anywhere (too obvious); 2. TV2GO; 3. V2G; 4. GoTv; 5. TVWWW or TVWyW (TV What you Want, Where you want, When you Want). 6. TV On Demand; 7. TV Yourway

Love to hear your suggestions for cable to replace the TV Everywhere name with a brand they can own.

Comcast - NBCU; What Will Vivendi Do?

The acquisition of NBCU by Comcast continues to move closer as the two parties seemed to have agreed on valuing the deal at 30 billion dollars. Sounds like a lot of money, but for Vivendi, it would represent less than they hoped. "A $30 billion valuation would put Vivendi’s part at $6 billion, which would still be shy of the $6.3 billion it is said to think its share should be worth." Hasn't anyone told Vivendi that when their is a seller motivated deal, the seller tends to get less than they desire, just to get rid of their asset. Heck, it's real estate 101.

Will Vivendi take the deal? Does a Comcast-NBCU deal make sense? Would the FCC even let Comcast own the asset or would they have to quickly spin off the broadcast piece to a separate entity? For those that simply like putting together M&A deals, they must be in seventh heaven. For those on the sideline watching the outcome, sometimes deals are just bad and should be avoided. If Comcast just wants the cable networks, this deal certainly is a complicated way to get what you desire. Scripps just picked up Travel with little fanfare and other cable networks are out there to be plucked. Seems a lot of work for Bravo, USA, Sci Fi, Oxygen, and others.

How Ya Doin Sirius

The economy is slowing improving, some car dealers are finally showing a little profit, and Sirius is still around. In fact, thanks to John Malone's financial support, Sirius remains an independent company. Despite posting a net loss in the third quarter, revenue grew 3 percent for them. Not bad for a company who's stock trades for just over 2 bits.

So what does the future hold? Hopefully a company that has reined in its costs and grown revenue. One big expense still around is Howard Stern's hefty contract. But that contract ends next month and both Howard and Sirius have a decision to make. Re-sign Howard or let him go back to terrestrial radio. Does Sirius depend on Howard anymore; I dunno. I suspect that those that ordered Sirius because of Howard have found more value that would keep them customers. Howard doesn't seem to be the game changer he once was. My expectation is that Mel Karmazin will try to sign him for pennies and when Howard refuses will say that at least he made him an offer. At the end of the day, Howard will come back to terrestrial radio and the wrath of the FCC.

And for Sirius, lower costs, perhaps more non car subscribers via iPhone and other mobile devices, and a buyout by Liberty Media and Direct TV.

Cable Revenue Up, Basic Sub Growth Down

Cablevision recently announced third quarter results and the headline was that profits had tripled. In fact, revenue jumped 5.3%. Comcast is telling a similar story as their revenue rose 3 percent. The growth sectors are digital penetration, high speed connects, and triple play growth with wireline phone business.

But inside the numbers there may be a different story to tell. Digital cable growth, in my estimation, is due to the recapture of bandwidth as cable customers "force" consumers to upgrade to digital and take a digital box in order to watch networks that were once on the basic tier. Revenue growth is coming from these upsells as well as the profit margin attached to phone and broadband connects.

BUT, the troubling point for cable is in this one piece of information. For Cablevision, basic video subscribers fell 1.5% from a year earlier. For Comcast, a similar story; in the third quarter, they lost 132,000 basic cable subscribers. At some point, you can't keep selling more services to less customers!! As consumers begin to treat cable, high speed, and phone as a commodity and see little differentiation between competitors, the lower priced service will win. Fios and AT&T continue to gain basic subs as cable drops them. As cable basic sub loss grows, these triple play customers will also leave and revenue and profit will both decline.

And when will it get problematic; just wait till the next rate increase comes into customers' hands. That notice will be the impetus to compare rates and think about changing providers. Revenue growth may be growing now but don't lose sight of your basic cable base. You got to have them as customers first before you can upsell them!

VOD or Live TV On Your Cell Phone

While it is nice to read that Apple is taking its iTune application one step further, enabling an all you can watch mentality for a subscription price. And for those consuming lots of on demand content on their iPhones and iPods, it may be a more economical model. "iTunes users can already buy individual movies and episodes of shows, but the monthly subscription-fee strategy takes square aim at cable companies, because subscribers wouldn't need them to deliver their favorite programs in bulk." Frankly, I don't see this as much of a competitive threat. I don't see these mobile devices as replacement to televisions.

What does appeal to me is the ability to augment your cable viewing experience with mobile. I recently found myself on a Sunday afternoon away from watching NFL football at home; instead, I was watching my son's little league game. Next to me at the field, a friend had his blackberry on, watching a live feed of the Giant-Eagles game. I immediately wished I had the same service. Direct TV offers this mobile connection; slingbox does as well. Does cable have anything to fear from iTunes - no; but they do need to bring their TV Everywhere concept into the 21st century and use a slingbox like approach to bring your cable subscription to your other platforms. The distributor that does the better job of enabling and marketing that application will see their market share rise.

Comcast to Buy Cable Nets and Sell Rest of NBC?

Everything that NBC Universal has built up, the acquisition of USA and Sci Fi, then Bravo, Oxygen, and most recently The Weather Channel, could soon come apart. With a sale to Comcast, the only thing of value to Comcast are the cable nets, less so the broadcast network and its owned and operated stations. "One Wall Street player confirmed market rumors that bankers have already descended on the MSO's Philadelphia headquarters to work with management on selling the NBC Network and stations to a third party. Comcast had no immediate comment on that still-hypothetical possibility."

Is this what GE wants, will this provide Vivendi with the value they want for their investment? It seems Comcast knows exactly what they want and are not afraid to dismantle the infrastructure to get to their prize. It is a far more strategic plan than acquiring the whole thing. Will Universal and the theme parks go as well? I would expect so.

So who might want a broadcast network without cable networks to balance it out. Today the profit is in cable not broadcast. And with the current programming on NBC in prime time (i.e. The Jay Leno Show), this fourth placed network has less value to offer. Who would want this dog without and an affiliate network that has become less viable when the web can be much more hyper local. Is this the future for NBC Universal and who could possible want to buy this shell of an asset?

Tonight on TV

Cable networks were created to bring niche interests to the masses and compete with the general programming of broadcasters. But the cable landscape has changed and cable networks are no longer acting like niches but behaving like broadcast networks. Case in point, tonight's line-up:

A&E - should be called CBS 2 with reruns of Criminal Mind and CSI: Miami
TV Land - once the home of classic TV shows is featuring a movie, "Private Benjamin"
Bravo - once culture TV presents Americas Next Top Model and a movie "Sleepless in Seattle" - that's culture?!
MTV - so long music videos, we get "Scream 3"
Travel - ahhh travel. So where to tonight - "Ghost Adventures Live!" Ticket for one, please.

And so it goes. Cable networks continue to broaden their programming so that they begin to lose their individual identity. Was that show on Food Network or TLC, AMC or TNT? So hard to say, they all start looking alike. So goodbye to networks, with VOD, simply watch the show you enjoy, regardless of where it may have first appeared.

Cablevision To Raise 2010 Video Rates 3.7%

How do you protect yourself from competition, sometimes its by keeping prices steady, perhaps even lowering them. That is somewhat the case for Cablevision. While voice and data rates remain steady, cable subscription is rising. Initially, I would have thought that this move was wrong, especially when cable basic subscription falls. But when your competition also raises rates then the one who raises it the least may be the winner. "The increase is slightly higher than 2009, when video rates rose an average of 3.5%. But it is substantially below the 21% increase Cablevision rival Verizon Communications implemented for its legacy FiOS TV Premier Package earlier this month."

Ultimately, the consumer, faced with either price increase will look at the other choices and ask, which is cheaper. To them, cable, voice, and data has begun to look more like a commodity than a differentiated product. What differentiates one from the other on the cable side is minimal, one has HD channels of local sports (obviously because Cablevision owns those channels and has not agreed to license them to Verizon). The other just picked up Epix. For the most part, for the majority of consumers, each has enough networks to satisfy. Each delivers data at broadband speed. Each offers wireline telephone service. How they service their current customer and how they woo their competitors customers may make the difference. In the meantime, price will continue to be the motivating factor. Regardless of how much they increase their price, it is the one that offers the lowest total cost for the package that will see the bigger rise of subscribers. In essence, cable TV has become a commodity product and the companies have done little to nothing to change that impression.

Quincy Smith Leaving CBS Interactive - What Does It Really Mean

Quincy Smith, CBS Interactive CEO, is leaving after 3 years at the helm to head back to Silicon Valley and his own startup. And while the claim is that he will continue to consult for CBS, the question is why now when the job he started has not been completed. TV.com, his alternative to Hulu, seems to be a non-product to its competitor and has little if any consumer awareness. The CNET acquisition has yet to thrive and their acquisition of a little website called Wallstrip merely resulted in its being shut down. So what grade does Quincy Smith get for his leadership? And why will he still be on retainer?

As Comcast and others discuss TV Everywhere, where does CBS stand. CBS seems to have created product and tactics without strategy and don't seem to know the direction they are headed. When asked in a recent interview, Smith replied, "Yeah, and I think there is a lot more I can do outside of CBS on that particular issue than inside. CBS has clearly got the Kool-aid of it inside. We have always been adamant about saying yes. Streaming stuff for fans online is the right thing to do, but the question is, What is the business model to make it work?" Ahhh, more questions than answers. Really, being outside CBS will help him focus on CBS. Got it. Right.

Is CBS also dissatisfied with Quincy Smith's performance and is this a nice way to get him out of the way. We will know when we see what kind of interaction this new company will have with CBS and how long it lasts. My vote, 3 to 6 months. It is a nice way to say goodbye.

Will Consumers Pay for Online Content

Hulu wants to charge for online content. Will consumers pay? They pay for Netflix, they pay for Blockbuster, but will they pay a site that has been previously offering its content for free? I expect that consumers will simply get more annoyed at thesecompanies and will utlimately find a way around them. The challenge for Hulu is not how to build a subscription model, but how to build an authentication model that feeds off of its cable license fees. Authentication is really all about convergence for the consumer, "what you want, where you want, when you want, how you want" - one price for access across all devices.

The added wrinkle is that the relationship between the cable company and its customer base is a poor one - built on poor service, bad communication, mistrust, and bad feelings. As technological advances hit the masses, from Apple to X Box, cable technology, and the box that enables TVs to function, look and act like old fashion, rotary dial, phones. There is nothing 21st century, with cool looks and interfaces, and ergonomic design to make the consumer feel that they are getting the best product from cable. Rather, they feel overcharged, and under appreciated. Hence as competition enters the fray, the customer makes a quick exit to the door.

So online content may try to find a subscription model. Just don't expect the consumer to roll over and take it. We have been mistreated for too long and will find other alternatives to satisfy our video cravings.

Fios To Exceed Cablevision Subscribers by 2010

In just a few short years, Verizon's rise in cable subscription has been fast and furious. While growth has slowed in the last quarter, Fios is the 6th largest cable operator, set to overtake Cablevision and the number 5 spot in 2010. And with partnerships with Direct TV in markets that don't have Fios, Verizon is still able to offer a triple play option to compete with cable. What makes Verizon most dangerous to cable in this competitive environment is that they can offer a fourth play, wireless communication, and build a compelling, competitive offer.

Sure Verizon has had to deal with the loss of customers from wireline, but that is mainly due to technological changes; consumers are switching off wires for cellular. To me that means that this third leg for cable is not the real hook that consumers need. Rather, cable must find a wireless product and build out a wireless broadband model. Consumers no longer want to be tethered to their home or to their devices. Devices must follow them.

As Fios' growth exceeds Cablevision, what does that mean for them? Does it push Cablevision to finally sell itself to Time Warner in order for it to better compete in the region? Verizon is reaching scale and no longer needs to sit at the kid's table; they are a major player in the cable distribution industry and will continue to demonstrate a strong voice in the months to come.

My hint to Fios. Buy some independent cable networks and create a stronger programming arm.

Hulu Needs To Grow Revenue

The idea of Hulu sounds impressive; bring TV content to the computer, build an advertising stream, gain new viewers by providing another avenue to watch shows, and hopefully move those viewers back to TV to strengthen the primary business. Why not. Most viewers would prefer the TV experience to computer and would rather watch long form in a sit back living room type experience.

Except Hulu seems to have some unintended consequences. Younger viewers see the computer as an alternative to TV, are getting content through the web, and eliminating their cable bill. Others are more technophiles and can connect the PC to their big screen and still enjoy long form content in a sit-back environment. In fact, TV makers are adding USB ports to support that connection. And advertisers aren't flocking to web video so that the CPM on the web is much less than the TV; hence, the owners of Hulu, NBC and Fox, are seeing "analog dollars being exchanged for digital pennies". It is not a fair trade. Some may contend that Hulu is additive to the TV experience, but my informal research tells me that it is talk without proof. The web is another distribution path for content and consumers are choosing the web to fill more and more of their entertainment interests.

So what is the next step for Hulu. Well according to the NY Post's article, Adieu free Hulu, it's time for Hulu to find incremental revenue models like subscription. "The online video site that offers full-length versions of current TV shows -- one of the fastest growing sites on the Web -- could start charging users as soon as next year, according to reports." Perhaps Hulu should tie itself back to cable and get a license fee in exchange for enabling authentication so that only cable customers can access cable content.

Will cable pay? Comcast is already building out its ondemand online model to compete with the Hulu model. Others may follow Comcast or embrace Hulu. Either way, it would have been naive to think that the free model from Hulu would last forever. The almighty dollar is far too powerful a force to keep it free forever. Will consumers adapt to this change to paid content? Not if it is accessible in other ways for free. The rise of free on demand viewing of these same programs, network websites, and even Apple's iTune store may become the more preferred means to access content. As Hulu becomes a pay model, it may simply become the first step to its destruction.

Can Twitter Generate Revenue?

If Twitter can find a business model, it may be due to the good fortunes and marketing savvy of Microsoft and Google. Both may be willing to pay Twitter to organize a search engine around its tweets. "The deals represent the latest evidence of the intense interest in what is known as the real-time Web — the constant stream of posts and updates on Twitter, Facebook and similar services. Unlike traditional Web pages and blogs, that real-time information has not been easily integrated by search engines."

As 99% of posts seem inane to me, what is there really to search for. Isn't the real news, already searched on web sites, simply linked to Twitter to spread the news. Is there anything fresh and unique only on Twitter that needs to be searched. I doubt it. It seems to me to be at first glance to be deals only in the best interest of Twitter and not of real long term value. We will have to wait and see to prove out my prediction.

TV Everywhere; Not Quite Yet

Comcast's alternative to Hulu is Fancast and with it, the chance to marry online content with cable subscription. I mean why buy the cow if the milk is free. Ideally, that subscription would lead to viewing outside the TV screen, on any other device authorized by your cable provider. Unfortunately, as long as Hulu is around, that authentication doesn't matter. Perhaps that is ultimately why Comcast will buy NBCU ( a founding partner of Hulu), to kill Hulu off. But back to Fancast, its authentication process today is limited to the wired home.

"On Demand Online will move from trial to reality later this year but not as the TV Everywhere wonderland all the hype might lead subscribers to expect: the streaming on demand will be limited to some cable shows and movies, access will be limited to in-home computers—and, at first, access will be possible only through Comcast’s own ISP, barring anyone who does not pay Comcast for video and broadband. But, as promised, the actual service will be free to cable subscribers; access will be through Comcast.net or the company’s video portal Fancast."

Ultimately, a deal will be needed with a wireless carrier to support the authentication process; with Verizon and AT&T doing their own thing, cable may have to do a deal with Sprint to add this piece to their puzzle. Will customers try Fancast or On Demand Online? It certainly depends on the content. If they offer full length shows not available on Hulu, TV.com, iTunes, or elsewhere, and can establish themselves as the only place for valuable online content then they may break through the current clutter.

Today though with so much video content available on these aggregators as well as other cable and broadcast websites, finding unique content to own may not be easy for Comcast and On Demand Online. They need to build their authentication process quick and demonstrate to content creators the importance of limiting their content sharing to authenticated sites in order to save the subscription revenue business.

To Survive, One Must Adapt

Barnes and Noble is acting like a survivor. Unlike the brick and mortar record stores, Virgin, Tower, etc, Barnes and Noble recognizes that in order o survive, one must change and adapt to the times. That is especially true with the rise of digital technology. Brick and mortar stores can survive even when the only thing being sold is data; hence the introduction of their E-book reader, the Nook. "The device features color touch-screen controls and a gray-and-white reading display. It will cost $259, matching Amazon.com’s most recent price cut for its latest edition of the Kindle."

The next step is to truly embrace it in the stores. With digital download stations, samples, and other means to keep customers coming into the store. make digital symbiotic with the store experience so both can survive, together and separately. It is how Barnes and Noble will ultimately differentiate itself from Amazon.

As usage will soar, Barnes & Noble can be positioned to adapt as digital takes hold and stores become less necessary. At the same time, consumers like getting out of the house to try new things, share and talk about content. That is Barnes and Noble's edge.

New Mobile DTV Standards

Here's an interesting tidbit in today's Cynopsis.com:

The Advanced Television Systems Committee (ATSC) approved a mobile DTV standard on Friday, clearing the way for broadcasters to transmit digital TV signals to a plethora of mobile devices. The formalization of the standard, in the works since May of 2007, gives chipmakers and gadget manufactures the template they need to develop handheld TVs, DTV-compatible netbooks and tuner-integrated mobile phones that can pick up ad-supported local news, weather and sports programming. In addition to live television, the new ATSC Mobile DTV standard also provides an application framework to enable receivers to bake in a number of interactive services. Look for iTV apps including live viewer voting, polling, advertising applications and audience measurement components to be built into the mobile DTV platform.


So a new DTV standard for mobile phones will enable more interactive applications. Why isn't it first happening in set top boxes? These bricks with wires can barely switch from one channel to another without a noticeable lag, freeze up when trick features are used, and cause more aggravation than enjoyment. And so as phones become more enabled, TVs become less so. It's time for some real convergence of technology. Put similar standards in the converter box and enable consumers to use the device that best appeals to them. For me, a Tivo without the need for a Cablecard or two, just a code that authorizes the cable company to talk to it. It's time to put some 21st thinking into the converter box ASAP.

Will Hulu Save Or Destroy Traditional TV

Hulu is a change agent. Full programs, not just clips, to the viewer provides an alternative to TV viewing. So is it complementary or a predator? The answer is that it depends. Will consumers stop purchasing cable TV subscription because their online subscription provides enough viewing or will consumers recognize that it is not an either or decision and will ultimately consume both.

TV Everywhere is a concept designed to take that choice out of the consumer's hands. It says that only cable subscribers get access to viewing content on other platforms; one must be authorized through cable to get access on the other devices. Hulu currently does not work under the TV Everywhere concept. It offers free viewing, most with less commercials than current cable inserts. So there is an added appeal to switch.

Will Hulu change to a subscription model? Will consumers buy one without the other? Or will Hulu adapt to a TV Everywhere mode and get authorized access via its cable partnerships. If Hulu can get an incremental fee from the MSOs, that seems like a likely route. At the same time, Comcast has created Fancast, a Hulu wannabee. Change is in the air.

Can Twitter Make Money For Itself

Many companies have figured out a way to use Twitter to augment their marketing tactics. It enables better communication to customers, reaches the brand fans, and enables quick feedback on how well the relationship between customer and company is doing. It is working for many companies save one, Twitter. Twitter cannot make money on itself.

I know of two ways to make money - subscription and advertising. As a free service, it would be very difficult for Twitter to start charging for subscription. And what else can they ad to try and build a premium level for a fee. And as for advertising, with only 140 characters and ideally suited for mobile devices, as well as the computer, there is not much room for an ad. Pop ups, no way; banners, how effective can they be. Twitter is an ideal mechanism to support marketing communications for others, but not itself.

There also seems to be two types of users: active twitterers and voyeurs. One constantly inputs info to the point of ad nauseum, the other likes to read what others are doing but has no interest in contributing to the banter. At some point, won't the first group get tired of writing tweets and move on to the next thing. Won't the latter group get bored of reading nothing more than nonsense and find something else to do.

At least for other social networking sites, like Facebook and My Space, there is more to do than post. And with more options come more potential opportunities to add advertising. Twitter seems so limited when compared to others.

Time Warner To Comcast: Some Mergers Don't Make Sense

Time Warner's CEO Jeffrey Bewkes doesn't think NBCU makes sense as an acquisition target for Comcast. Their experience with AOL is prime example that synergy is not easy to come by. And content and distribution together may be a deadly combination. They recently separated the two into different companies, Time Warnr Cable for distribution, Time Warner for content. "Mr. Bewkes pointed to Time Warner Cable's recent spin-off from its corporate parent as a sign of media disaggregation done well." The two didn't play well together in the same sandbox.

Should Comcast heed this advice. Does an NBCU-Comcast entity make sense? Can Comcast compete with ESPN in one area of its company and work closely with them in another. "Speaking at a keynote Q&A at TV Week's Innovation 360 conference in New York, Mr. Bewkes described NBCU as a "very complicated" business that might not make total sense for a cable company such as suitor Comcast with a portfolio that includes a broadcast network and a movie studio." Perhaps it is worth listening to this wisdom. Perhaps content and distribution work better separately, than together.

Bloomberg Wins Business Week

Mike Bloomberg has done extremely well in his career. Building a business, running a major metropolitan city, noticing opportunities and making a mark in the world. His latest, the purchase of Business Week Magazine. "With the move, Bloomberg takes on BusinessWeek’s faltering financial situation, plummeting ad sales and all—and gains its resources, products, standing and valuable brand. Bloomberg’s execs expect to strengthen Bloomberg Television, using that brand and the magazine’s “world-class” journalists, and the company’s web presence." It is a shot in the arm for magazine publishing.

What it says to me is that there is a profitable business opportunity to be exploited. Bloomberg's multimedia approach recognizes that content can live and breathe in multiple forms. His financial backing demonstrates that with better management, a keener approach to using its content and credibility across platforms, and vision of what may be possible with the web and e-books, Business Week can live on quite well. I'm excited for what Bloomberg can accomplish with this well regarded magazine.

Lather, Rinse, Repeat as Needed (Same With Your Cable Box)

Now that the digital conversion has taken affect, every TV requires a cable box to receive channels once accessible directly to the TV set through the cable wire. And now with more boxes, more problems. So why call the cable company for assistance when the answer is always the same: unplug the box, wait 30 seconds, plug back in. What it didn't work; repeat, try again. That is the number one solution for every cable problem! Is it that the cable box is overworked or just a brick in sheep's clothing. These problems don't occur nearly as often with computers, Tivos, Playstations, Wiis, or other devices; the cable box needs continual rebooting. Stuck channel - reboot; no cable guide - reboot; no service - reboot.

Frustrating to say the least. And does it seem that every cable box that gets put in the field has been refurbished. Who is getting the new boxes? And when will Comcast finally get me a Tivo guide in their cable box at my home? I remain frustrated, ready to switch providers and missing the days when I had a Tivo directly connected to the TV WITHOUT a cable box to slow me down. Why do customers switch providers; cost may be one reason, but service and connectivity is definitely another.

Is Leno at 10pm Working?

It is still too early to judge whether the NBC experiment, replacing 5 hours of scripted series with a talk show, is genius or stupidity. But rumblings and aftereffects are being felt. One is a scripted series, Southland, that was meant for 10pm but forced to fill a 9 pm slot. It has been quickly cancelled. Another is the ratings at 11pm of the local newscast that follows Jay. "Late newscasts on local stations affiliated with NBC are reporting significant ratings declines, at least partly because of a ratings drop-off in the 10:30 half-hour that precedes them." And third is a drop in ratings of its perennial late-night staple, The Tonight Show. NBC still says it is bullish on The Jay Leno Show and says it needs to be judged over a year in order to measure its success. For NBC, the bottom line measure is the net profit it delivers; despite lower revenues, Jay' much lower costs will give it greater value to NBC. In isolation, that may be true; but, if other shows are also affected and the TOTAL bottom line of NBC is lower because of Jay's ancillary effect on newscasts, syndication, and late night revenue, then it may not be as successful as first thought. Yes NBC, time will tell.

Is NBCU The Best Fit For Comcast?

Comcast wants content and NBC Universal is for sale, but does that make it the best strategic fit? As the article suggests, Comcast seeks to expand its cable networks, but NBCU is more than just that; it includes broadcast and affiliates, a movie studio, theme park, and more. Would Comcast then have to spin off these non core assets to pare down to what they want. Sure NBCU may be motivated to sell cheap, but cheap doesn't necessarily get you a great deal.

Comcast needs to really determine what business they want to be in and whether this deal strategically, and not just financially, makes sense. And do they really want to own a broadcast channel with local affiliates. Could that add a whole new wrinkle to their distribution business? I'm sure it will raise an eyebrow or two with the FCC. There are plenty of other cable networks that could be ripe for acquisition. The article mentions some, including Discovery and Scripps, but others exist. Those acquisitions come with far less headaches and far more synergy.

"Still, Roberts is an opportunistic dealmaker, and sources said he thinks he can steal NBCU because parent company General Electric is essentially a distressed seller." Sometimes if a deal is too good to be true, it is too good to be true. Comcast must concern itself with its core business, cable distribution, and there they have much bigger issues. If this is a fundamental switch toward content AND away from distribution, that is one thing; but, if it is about both, and NBCU acquisition will cause many more problems and thin out resources, just as Comcast faces growing competitive problems from Verizon and AT&T. Strategically speaking, Comcast needs to decide which battle they want to fight, telco or FCC!

Cable's Loss Is Telco's Gain

I came across this website through an associate and when I scrolled down saw this chart of basic sub growth from Q3 2008 through Q2 2009. It indicates a serious problem for the cable operator:



Over the four quarters cable basic subscription has dropped, while the telcos, AT&T and Verizon, and Direct TV has shown growth. In fact, telco and dish basic growth is greater than cable's loss, indicating that there are still homes that are new to cable television.

Of the cable operators, only Insight has for the most part gained subscribers for three of the four quarters. Comcast has consistently had the most loss for the same period. While cable may be selling more services to their current customers, data and telephone - the triple play, it is finding itself selling to a smaller and smaller universe.

In summary, the incumbent has a serious challenger in the telcos and better do more to reverse this trend or will find itself selling less of its other products and losing serious revenue. Today, AT&T and Verizon's share of the cable universe remains small, but the indication is that they are growing fast. Per the JD Power report, telcos and satellite are beating cable for customer satisfaction. The trend should be disturbing to cable and they need to act FAST or risk losing their lead in the next few years. Customers are dissatisfied with the service, choice, quality, and price. Cable is zero for four and has built for itself a bad reputation in the marketplace. It is time to re-evaluate and change internally, then market that new approach to win back customers. Otherwise, the leak in the dam will only continue to grow!

Google Android Versus Apple iPhone

Will the iPhone ever be offered on the Verizon Wireless network? Certainly a partnership with Google seems to indicate that Apple won't join Verizon any time soon. "Verizon Wireless and Google said Tuesday that they will partner to co-develop a bevy of Android-based devices. Verizon Wireless also said that it will tightly integrate its network with Google apps—including Google Voice." Sounds like a direct frontal assault to the Apple App store to me. It certainly is directly aimed at Apple and iPhone. Given the headstart that Apple has, it may not be such a fair fight. It may depend on how open the device is and how many third party developers come on board to help load it with interesting and useful application.

Will it preclude a future deal with Apple for Verizon. Let's just say, I believe a Line has been drawn in the sand. It may depend who blinks first. And this staring contest could go on for a while.

Condé Nast Doesn't See A Future With Magazines

In a true blow to the magazine industry, Condé Nast threw up their hands and says "No Mas" to a number of long time, popular magazines. The axe hit some notable titles including Gourmet, Modern Bride, Elegant Bride and parenting magazine Cookie. Rather than sell these title to another entity, Condé Nast will just shut them down and lay off its employees. This move isn't new to them. "Condé Nast in the past year closed its Portfolio, Domino and Golf for Women magazines. It folded Men’s Vogue into Vogue magazine."

Certainly the ad market for magazine has slowed although some are seeing it turn the corner. And subscription has taken a toll as well, especially when it competes against free content on the web. Still, Kindle and other portable devices are growing rapidly and need content to grow more. A subscription service does make sense on these devices and could work well.

Condé Nast may have suffered as none of their magazine brands have broadened outside their media. Scripps seems to have done a better job tying in their cable network brands with magazines including cooking, home repair, etc. Could Condé Nast have done more to be part of the trend and not left behind it. It seems more could have been done.

It seems too that this business decision was made because of a consultant's recommendation. "Condé Nast hired consulting firm McKinsey & Co. in July to evaluate its magazine properties and other aspects of its business, said Maurie Perl, a spokeswoman for the publisher." Was this the best decision they could come up with. I sometimes wonder if all consultants do is create change to justify their fee; did they ever evaluate the choice of status quo. And was a sale of the brands even a possibility. Was the ending of Gourmet, Modern Bride, and others truly the best course of action.

Should Magazines Follow The Hulu Model?

It seems print media wants a recharge and they think aggregating their digital content onto one site, a la Hulu, is the solution. "The new service, as yet unnamed, would serve as a digital storefront for magazines, possibly newspapers and other publications and is expected to be announced in about a month. The launch is planned for 2010, people familiar with the plan said." And I ask why.

Hulu is fraught with problems for the video industry. it offers free content, and enables consumers to drop their cable subscription for free programming. Hulu takes viewers away from the networks own brand into a new one. Thus you can watch The Office without caring whether it came from NBC or Fox or somewhere else. It disrupts the current subscription model, not extends it. The TV everywhere concept at least attempts to force consumers to first be subscribers before they get to view content.

So why buy the magazine if the content is free elsewhere? And how can individual print brands be maintained as this new entity develops an overlaying umbrella brand? And finally, why will the consumer subscribe, if the content is free? Rather, these same content creators should instead pursue a store approach that competes with Amazon and Apple and sells digital copies of their pages over different media devices. Support Kindle, E-reader, Iphone, and others with both a digital and print copy for one low price. Offer single copies and subscriptions at different price points and benefits. Use these readers to your advantage; they are the future for printed content. A Hulu-like web site is not the best solution.

Comcast, GE Said to Discuss NBC Universal Stake Sale

Don't let the facts get in the way of a good lie. Where once there was denial, quickly comes proof. It seems that Comcast is indeed looking to buy NBC and GE is willing to part with 51% as it would spin off NBC into a separate company where GE would see its ownership drop from 80% to 49%. Still it keeps GE in the entertainment game and allows them to reap some of the rewards, including trips to future Olympics.

"Negotiations for Comcast to buy about 50 percent of NBC Universal have been under way for at least two months and a deal would depend in part on Vivendi SA making a decision to sell its 20 percent holding, said one of the people, who declined to be identified because the talks are private." As Vivendi has been talking about selling, I doubt that they will be the problem; valuation of the NBC Universal asset will surely affect the negotiations as they move forward.

Andy while the negotiations are at a very early stage, speculation remains on how Comcast would run this kind of business. Would current senior management remain? Would the philosophy of cheaper entertainment, i.e. The Jay Leno Show, be applauded or switched off? And will it be run out of New York or would operations switch to Philadelphia? Maybe, GE will recognize the power of the NBCU business to its bottom line, offsetting the losses of its other operations. They could just as easily walk away from this deal. Too, too early, but always fun to ask the questions.

Rumor Alert - Comcast Buying NBC

Quickly denied, but certainly a possibility, Comcast may be bidding to take NBC away from General Electric. About five years ago, Comcast was unsuccessful in its bid for Disney/ABC, so a NBC acquisition is certainly not out of the question. Still, because it is still so early in the process, denials are aplenty. "'While we do not normally comment on M&A rumors, the report that Comcast has a deal to purchase NBC Universal is inaccurate,' the spokesman said." What else are they supposed to say.

The issue of NBC being sold is not going away because of Vivendi's plan to sell its 20% ownership of the company. If GE doesn't choose to buy out its partner or spin it off into a separate company, a sale remains a distinct possibility and Comcast looks like it could be a good buyer. With its distribution platform coupled with its ownership of other cable networks, NBC, its broadcast and cable operations, would fit nicely into the mix. Will it happen? Stay tuned...

Will Parents Pay for Disney Books On The Web?

We do almost everything for our kids. And as new parents,, reading to them is one of the fundamental joys. But in an age of two working parents, free time sometimes becomes hard to find. Even non-working parents would agree. So we sit our kids in front of the TV and find other activities to keep "our lil darlins busy". Disney has another alternative. For $80 bucks a year, they will provide access to books on the web. Will parents bite; I'm not so sure.

"DisneyDigitalBooks.com, which is aimed at children ages 3 to 12, is organized by reading level. In the “look and listen” section for beginning readers, the books will be read aloud by voice actors to accompanying music (with each word highlighted on the screen as it is spoken). Another area is dedicated to children who read on their own. Find an unfamiliar word? Click on it and a voice says it aloud. Chapter books for teenagers and trivia features round out the service." Does this subscription offer access to other devices. It doesn't appear to. As E-book readers are becoming the hot product, Disney prefers to tether their product to the PC. And that may be what hurts it. Parents have many more alternatives in the home. It is when we are on the go, away from home, that we seek "help" to distract and entertain our children. We hand them our iPhone, gameboys, blackberries, and other devices. That is when we are most vulnerable and that is when it is easy to buy the app on the iPhone to offer something new.

Disney offers wonderful content and finding new revenue streams for content is what keeps companies growing. Still, I doubt there will be many that bite at this particular offering. Expand its reach to external devices and price competitively and I believe this could potentially be a huge winner for Disney.

Is Time Warner Changing Back to Warner Bros

It seems that Time Warner is ready to spin off another business. First it was AOL and now the talk is that Time Inc will be next. It seems that its core competency is video production and the print business has no synergy for them to utilize. Once done, they will be left with the Warner Bros studio, HBO, and the Turner Networks, TNT, TBS, TCM, et al. And what to do then? The talk is that the cash from these sales will be used to purchase more video product. "One of those mentioned often is debt-hobbled MGM, the fabled but faded movie studio that has recently sent its chairman Harry Sloan packing and brought in restructuring expert Stephen Cooper to seek additional capital. Warner’s name also pops up often when talk turns to NBC, although its owner General Electric has so far said it has no intentions of selling." Of course there is speculation on other smaller cable networks like Hallmark, AMC, and others.

It seems the talk in the industry remains consolidation. It is big fish eating little fish and perhaps some big fish being eaten as well. At the end, content, like the distribution side of the business, will be controlled by a limited few, with some independents nibbling at the fringes and trying to make a living.

How The Digital World Has Changed The Real World

The world has gotten faster. No it still takes 365 days to make a year and 24 hours in a day, but new technologies have enabled data to reach us faster than ever before. It is that pace that is quickening. From letters that needed days to be sent to electronic mail that is received in seconds to instant messages that are received in moments, information is transmitted and shared instantaneously. We are no longer a wired world, but untethered and allowed to roam free with wireless all around. Where once we had to wait till 9 PM for our movie to start, today it is not only accessible at the moment but is of our choosing and not scheduled by someone else. And we have come to expect this. In fact our children only understand this type of world; it is unfathomable when they go to Grandma's house and they can't pause the TV.

And it is a good thing, speed, accessibility, choice, instant communication, and constant connection: E-mail, IM, Facebook, Skype, Twitter, VOD, DVR, etc. In a way we are all like children demanding instant gratification, an "I want it now" philosophy. But has it hurt us as a society? Have we also gotten short-tempered and without patience, unable to wait our turn? And has that led to a lack of manners because we are always in a hurry and need our answers sooner rather than later. And thus we have Congressmen shouting out "You Lie" to our President during a televised speech. We have become ruder and less patient with drivers slower than us. On the other hand, this instant communication has also enabled Amber Alert, to quickly get news of a child's abduction into the public and help rescue children. It has brought many other good things, too.

Like any change in an environment, it comes with both good and bad results. In this changing entertainment landscape, let's appreciate the good that comes from the digital age, from convergence, speed, and instant flow of information, but let's also be conscious of our actions with others. Sometimes a more personal direct connection is better than an e-mail or IM. Despite the urgency and shortcuts, let's still find our patience when dealing with others and don't just let the speed of life pass us by; instead, remember to stop and smell the roses.

Cable Networks Will Be Last Old Media to Face Digital Destruction

According to Peter Chernin, former head of News Corp, cable networks should also worried at how the digital age will destroy their business. "Whether niche cable programming can survive and thrive in a streaming on-demand video world 'is the single biggest question facing the media industry,' Chernin said Wednesday during a roundtable discussion USC Annenberg School for Communications." And he is 100% right! Cable networks have been leading a charmed life, blessed with at least two revenue streams, advertising AND subscription. Broadcast, on the other hand has had to rely on advertising only, although that has changed too as these same companies own both broadcast and cable and have used their leverage to get higher subscription fees for their sister networks. Digital distribution has the potential of hurting the cable subscription model by reaching directly to the consumer. Without this huge chunk of revenue, cable networks would be in serious trouble, unable to afford their programming.

And Chernin should also be held responsible. His role partnering News Corp with NBC has led to the creation of Hulu, a web-based streaming media aggregator of broadcast and cable shows and films. Cable's response has been TV Everywhere, an authentication model designed to only allow streaming media programming to consumers who also purchase cable TV. But as long as Hulu and TV.com offer free programming, it will be a losing battle. And should they try to convert themselves into a fee-based service, they will be competing with themselves and their cable partners who will most likely re-negotiate their deals under this changing environment.

Cable can win this game, but they need to build a better mousetrap, enabling programming to be seen absolutely everywhere and across any device - TV, pc, cellphone, etc. Convergence and portability of an authorized signature. And this content should include both live, DVR, and VOD. Makes you think that maybe a network based DVR could be the first step to making this accessibility work most efficiently and effectively. Otherwise, the consumer will gravitate to the cheapest source and all parties will be hurt.