Monday, August 11, 2008

Kindle Has A Bright Future

Mobile, On-demand, Futuristic, and potentially, Economical, the Kindle looms as how print content is moving to be consumed. And when the financial community updates its forecast to see the upward potential, it optimistically represents the direction the consumer is headed. Citi's Mark Mahaney "thinks instead of being a $750 million business that accounts for 3% of the company's sales next year, the Kindle will be a $1.1 billion business that accounts for 4%." It could be the Christmas gift to get this year!

I'm interested to see what the next generation Kindle looks like and what Sony, Apple and others do to compete in this space. Kindle is to Amazon's print download as the iPod is to Apple's music download. When you recognize that bits are bits, Amazon should find a way to make its Kindle also be an audio and video device, while Apple creates a reader that embraces print downloads.

"Mahaney's projections are not predicated on Amazon releasing a new version of the device this year. But they are predicated on the Kindle moving 150,000 units in Q4 -- something that's only going to happen if the Kindle becomes a must-have holiday gift. But he figures that's a relatively modest bet, given the success of other gadgets in years past." Should Amazon release a new version prior to the holiday season, I wouldn't be surprised to see these estimates go even higher.