The longevity of the dvd may just depend on whether it allows its owner to copy its file from one device to another. While the concern that others will freely share titles, most consumers are more likely to see it as a benefit of ownership and prefer the simplicity of copying than searching for peer to peer transfer.
"Yet while each studio is pursuing its own second-copy strategy, as a group they haven't given up on an industry-standard approach. Yesterday, the studios in the DVD Copy Control Assn., which administers the CSS license, circulated a new proposed "managed-copy" amendment to the CSS licensing agreement, several DVD-CCA sources told Media Wonk."
The other question to ask is what the next device will be to hold audio and digital files; what will replace the cd and dvd. Will movies and music be sold on their own unique thumb drive? Will we take our iPod to the store and have the file digitally uploaded to our portable device. Will these devices limit how many copies we will be able to make? Digital rights management will remain a big issue for quite some time. And there will always be those trying to rip their own free copies.