Senate passes another DTV Transition extension bill

It's on, it's off, it's on, it's off...no not the clapper, the digital transition bill that could delay the transition date, now only 17 days away. Once again, the Senate has passed a bill to delay the transition; the House must again vote. President Obama wants a delay. What will the House do THIS time?

Per the article, "It’s Take Two on the bill the DTV Transition bill that would postpone the analog switch-off until June 12. The House of Representatives shot down the first one after a unanimous Senate vote, but this this revised bill might make it to Obama’s desk.

The Senate adjusted some wording within the bill that pertains to the budget and first responders. It still has the provision that allows broadcasters to decide when is the right time for them to switch off their analog signals. Just like the first bill, this one also passed unanimously and is headed down the hallway to the the House where they could vote on it as soon as Wednesday, February 4, 2009 if it passes the House Rules Committee in a timely manner.

It seems that with these changes, the bill might receive the 2/3 vote needed which would effectively extended the switch-off to June 12, 2009 and confusing millions of Americans. What a shame. (and a sham)"

Telcos Fight For Survival

Today's Wall Street Journal poses the question, which strategy will succeed, Verizon or AT&T, as they reshape their future. Both telcos would agree that the landline phone business is declining. Younger consumers especially are choosing their wireless device as their primary phone, and not even bothering to take a hardwire line. But the article sees each pushing a different strategy for success. For Verizon, the buzz is FiOS and competing in the cable space; For AT&T, it's pushing the partnership with Apple and the iPhone, and a less aggressive stake in its cable platform, U-verse. So who is more likely to succeed? "Industry observers say it is too early to tell which strategy will pay more dividends. While AT&T has taken a conservative tack, Verizon's FiOS gambit has always been more of a risk financially because it will take time to generate healthy margins on the video business."

For my 2 cents, I like the direction that Verizon has taken. For one, the iPhone success is short term; the iPhone exclusive deal will one day expire and for now Blackberry devices provides a good experience. For some, an iPod device can provide the bells and whistles without the calls. And for me, Verizon's signal and connectivity makes it the superior cellular service.

I like the Verizon strategy because their connectivity is both wireless and wired. They will have the advantage to build synergies off the two platforms and interconnect them in new ways. Ultimately, the connection to the home will provide multiple opportunities to monetize content. By connecting to the customer wherever they are, by any device, TV, PC, cell phone, Verizon is poised to be the glue that manages our communication, information, and entertainment needs. As FiOS reaches scale, it will be able to aggregate its customers and understand their consumption patterns.

In fact, I believe that the next stage for Verizon is to own content. Today Cablevision and Time Warner use their local news operations, News 12 and NY1, to keep consumers on their platform. As Verizon acquires a network or website, it would be able to build a compelling interactive experience that can be merchandised across its wireless and wired platforms. Cable has yet to add a working wireless platform to its triple play model. With content and cable, data, phone and wireless platforms, Verizon has the opportunity to leap ahead of AT&T and the cable operator.

Digital TV Delay Falls Through, Modestly Good News For Cable, Telcos

The digital transition date is on, it's off, it's on, it's... The House failed to approve the bill that was passed in the Senate that would have delayed the transition date till June. And so, for now, the switch will be turned on February 17. For the poor and elderly who have yet to get a digital converter, let alone the voucher to buy for pennies, may be left without their TV signal. For them, the solution is to either do without, purchase a converter (there is no time to get a voucher), or contact your cable, telco, or satellite provider and hook up.

"This is modestly good news for cable companies like Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC), telcos like Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), and satellite TV providers like DirecTV (DTV), which expect to sign up incremental customers because of the digital transition. It's also modestly good news for wireless carriers Verizon, AT&T, and Qualcomm (QCOM), which bought billions of dollars worth of analog TV airwaves in last year's FCC auction to use for wireless services."

Will another bill be legislated in time to postpone the switchover. For now, it seems less likely. 20 days left. The clock is ticking

Sirius to be Available on IPhone

If you can't get Howard Stern on your car, how about on your phone. In a move that just might find a new revenue stream, iPhone users will be able to get Sirius on their device. How much it costs and whether current Sirius subscribers get a discount have still not be revealed. Still, it sounds like a terrific way to expand the Sirius audience reach. "According to these sources, the uSirius StarPlayr app will be submitted to the Apple Store by Saturday, January 31st. After submitting, Apple simply needs to approve the iPhone app, and it will go public."

I am also reading that it will be available over a cellphone or WiFi connection. I look forward to reading more details on this new direction.

Amazon’s Kindle 2 Will Debut Feb. 9

The next generation of Kindle is coming out in a few weeks and hopefully Amazon has stocked up. "The device has been out of stock since November, after Oprah Winfrey touted the device on her show. The announcement seems to confirm our suspicions that the original Kindle has been obsolete since that time and that everyone who purchased the device over the holidays from Amazon.com — or put their name on a waiting list — will receive the newer version." There continues to be chatter about what the new features will be, most likely better graphics and faster refresh. According to reports, "the new device corrects some of the design flaws of the first model, adding round buttons instead of those strange angular ones, and smaller side buttons to avoid accidental page turns."

Sony will ultimately respond with their next version of its Reader. So where is Apple and why have they not responded with a product in this space? The Iphone can't do everything; it's screen size is not large enough to replace the book/newspaper/magazine experience. A larger device is required. Still Apple has the advantage over Sony of the infrastructure through itunes to download and save content. It could compete with Amazon's site on day one. Apple could be poised to take and lead this next niche. But until they do, Kindle will surely prosper.

Why Ad Rates Are Plummeting And What It Means For Publishers

In economics, we call it supply and demand. Add the price elasticity component and well, that is explaining the state of ad networks and new media today. This article clearly explains the path we are headed. As content publishers look at monetization tools, from ad revenue to subscription, how they earn their revenue is being affected by glut and cheaper alternatives. For advertising, their CPM is being hurt when ad networks are discounting their own ads in the remnant, or secondary market. Why buy an ad directly, if it can be bought for less by an ad network. "Agencies and advertisers can't resist the discount and begin to buy their way onto premium sites through ad networks only. This drives down the amount of inventory publishers can sell on their own and increases their reliance on ad networks. The vicious cycle continues."

And does specific content matter. For agencies using demographics to reach a particular audience segment, does it matter whether they are reading a premium site or "stocks r us". Same audience and reach at a lower cost with more frequency. "Why pay a $25 CPM to reach that wealthy, 50-year-old, Boston-area living, Mercedes Benz-owner on NYTimes.com when you can pay a $.60 CPM to reach the same guy five minutes later when he's reading a five-year-old article on stockjocksofwallstreettheblog.com's archives?" This economic model ultimately leads to more price wars and lower pricing.

And so, content publishers will need to offset this loss of revenue by restricting ad networks from re-selling their content, marketing the value of the content and the brand, and perhaps even charging a subscription fee for access. At the same time, the internet continues to increase the amount of accessible content; how it is controlled and managed within web sites will bring more control back into the advertising model.

Actor's Strike Unlikely

I guess SAG had to wait till after their awards show to make changes. No use stirring the pot before the big televised event. And so they waited till the day after to fire their national executive director and chief negotiator, Doug Allen. At the same time, SAG will be joining forces with the other actor's union, AFTRA, to renegotiate their advertising agreements.

"The negotiating committee for the union, which has been working without a contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers since last June, will now shrink to a 10-member task force, according to the Associated Press." I have a better idea, accept the AFTRA agreement with AMPTP and move forward. It's time to move forward, not waste more time or money, when a legitimate deal with actors has been already struck.

Senate Agrees To Move DTV Transition Date

The senate bill proposes to move the digital transition date from next month, February 17, out five months to June 12. This bill must now be worked out with a House bill. Tick tock the clock is ticking. The public isn't ready for digital; I say this bill gets worked out and the transition is delayed.

Syndication Is Not Dead

Despite the dire predictions, the word on the street is that syndication of TV programming is not dead...yet. "As another NATPE gets under way in Las Vegas, amid the perennial reports of low attendance and sparse sales, here’s something worth remembering: Syndication isn’t dead." That is the word being spread around. "More important, both 'Wheel' and 'Oprah' generate millions upon millions of dollars in profit for the companies involved in their production and distribution. Same goes for anyone fortunate enough to have a piece of 'Entertainment Tonight' or 'Who Wants to be a Millionaire?' or 'Tyler Perry’s House of Payne.'”

But as alternative distribution models grow, both online and mobile, will that hurt the current syndication model or can it actually be an opportunity for more revenue? As local broadcasting is faced with declining revenue, can they afford syndicated product? WIll they need to rely on originally produced local content to differentiate themselves not only from other local broadcasters but also from the web and sites like Hulu. The article may be worrying about the next generation of syndication personalities, but they should also worry about changing distribution platforms, too.

Deloitte Issues 2009 Media Predictions

A new year and a new President, technology and entertainment layoffs abound, so what are the headlines and future for 2009. Deloitte has issued their predictions for the technology, media, and telecommunications industries.

Digital storage cost for user generated video - can this content be adequately monetized or will the power swing back to mainstream media who can create and distribute professionally produced video. Per World Screen.com, "'Advertisers are generally reluctant to place ads next to any content that could damage a client's brand.' As such, sites may need to start charging people to upload or share content." Given the costs will a revenue stream ever be found.

Mobile content - will the consumer accept mobile advertising and in what form. Pre-rolls on video content, text messages, coupon offers, etc. "With global advertising experiencing double-digit decreases and the coming year promising an even tougher economy, mobile advertising's time may have come. More able than ever before to carry advertising, mobile phones are at their most ubiquitous -- and there is a more mature understanding of what mobile can and cannot deliver in advertising." A key challenge, but mobile can present more opportunities as well.

3D content - a clear rise of theatrical titles in 3D to keep audiences from staying in their home and watching films on their big HD screens. It's all about differentiating the theatrical experience from the home. And I'm sure in a few years, homes will soon possess 3D as well, but for now more content is being created and theaters are being modified to offer the experience. For an added fee! Many titles to look forward to including Monsters vs Aliens, Toy Story 3D, and even the next Harry potter film.

Late Night With Jimmy Fallon Webisode

Very proud because it features my wife!

Actor's Union To Give Up Strike Vote

SAG's leadership has finally realized that they did not have the support of its members to push for a strike and have taken the threat off the table. Instead, they intend to send to their constituents the contract offer from AMPTP and allow them the chance to vote. "The declaration represents an about-face and follows months of preparations for a strike vote that would have given the guild the power to shut down production of major studio movies and prime-time TV shows. The last contract expired in June."

So there are now two possible outcomes; a vote to accept the contract would allow all unions to focus their attention on creating good content. BUT...what happens if the membership reject the contract offer. What then. New leadership for SAG. Does strike talk re-emerge. Or do they merge their union with AFTRA and follow its contract. Will it means that SAG has lost its way and should fade off into the sunset. Ahhh, a classic Hollywood ending. Still, until this next vote is taken, SAG's future is unclear. In these bad economic times, unions are losing their advantage and belt tightening is needed on both sides of the table.

Inaugural ratings likely second best

According to preliminary Nielsen numbers, the inauguration of Ronald Reagan 28 years ago was seen by a larger percentage of US households than this week's Barack Obama inauguration. But are we really comparing apples to apples. "Preliminary Nielsen estimates show that 29.2% of U.S. households were watching the presidential inauguration -- easily the largest in decades but below the 37.4 household rating for Reagan. Obama's figures include viewership on roughly 15 broadcast and cable networks, while the Reagan ceremony was viewed only on ABC, CBS and NBC; also, they do not include the huge online viewing this time around, with CNN.com, FoxNews.com and MSNBC.com all reporting record streaming video traffic." And what about sites like Hulu that also carried the stream. While I am confident that number of online viewers is minimal relative to the other outlets, the aggregate of video coverage should be counted in order to make a fair comparison between 1981 and 2009's inauguration.

But I am surprised that the Obama inauguration figures were not higher. Still it ranked higher than most others. With so many places to watch this historical day, it will be interesting to see what the final numbers indicate.

Google Ends Sale of Ads in Papers After 2 Years

Print advertising must be dying if Google can't sell its ads. And while old media is clearly not Google's expertise, you would think that they would be able to build a connection between digital and print and use that synergy to augment the sales process. But unfortunately, the experiment was a bust. “'While we hoped that Print Ads would create a new revenue stream for newspapers and produce more relevant advertising for consumers, the product has not created the impact that we — or our partners — wanted,' wrote Spencer Spinnell, director of Google Print Ads, on an official corporate blog."

For Google, it means stick with what you do best; for print, it may simply spell disaster.

If Content Isn't King, Then Maybe Social Community Is

Terrific article in Business Week that makes a great point, that perhaps as content is no longer exclusive, where it is shared and the community it serves may matter more. Content creators no longer try to make their assets unique to a particular site; rather they seem best served when that content is featured and distributed across many sites. Building partnerships with these communities so that the content can not only be found anywhere but can also be discussed. It is no longer enough to watch or read, it is perhaps more important to interact with it and with others who also access it.

"On TV, content is king. But on the Web, community may reign supreme. Throughout television history, the way to lure most viewers was to air the best shows. It doesn't necessarily work that way on the Web, where many shows can seen on multiple sites." Most video is available non exclusively on multiple sites. NBC, Hulu, and You Tube may all share similar content. Facebook, My Space, and Bebo may all carry some of the same applications. What matters more is that within those sites, the communities that are created foster a bond and loyalty to that site. They become for the particular user their primary point of entry for the content they wish to consume. It's not just about the video they watch or the game they play, but how its members communicate their opinions about what they have watched or played. Perhaps in the game example, it is all about competing with your friends in the community as opposed to with strangers. And for videos, sharing your passions, laughs, and "water cooler" discussions with others you know who may also have watched.

Yes content is king, but where you watch or play and with who matters too.

Charter Cable May File For Bankruptcy

As cable distribution gets more competitive with both telcos and satellite competing with cable operators, and customers preferring broadband to cable for entertainment, Charter must decide what to do next. Do they use bankruptcy protection to revise their strategy and revisit their costs in order to renegotiate better contracts, or do they sell off their cable properties to pay off their creditors? Paul Allen has had a tough time turning Charter into a profitable venture. "Allen, the co-founder of Microsoft Corp., has held a controlling stake since 1998 in the company, which hasn’t turned a profit since going public a decade ago." Is this unexpected for Charter, NO; but it is sad to see another cable operator bite the dust. The landscape is filled with many cable companies no longer part of the landscape: Adelphia, TCI, Suburban, Lenfest, Helicon, Prime, Falcon, Tele-Cable, Wometco, and many, many, many others. Goodbye Charter.

Is the Web A Radio Killer Too?

It's been well noted that the web has caused great frustration to traditional media, print and TV especially. The web has also affected retail as well, with brick and mortar stores like Virgin Records unable to compete with digital downloads. So it should not come as such a surprise that it has affected radio as well. "Los Angeles station Indie 103.1 will cease broadcasting over the air on Thursday, according to on-air announcements, but will continue to broadcast via the Web. " While other radio stations have enhance their reach by also streaming their signal over the web, 103.1 is switching over completely from airwaves to web. Cost may be a factor, declining audience may be another. Certainly there is more to the story...

Hulu, Joost, and Others to Stream Inauguration

While I tend to talk about how streaming video content will change cable's subscription model for access to TV channels, I will make an exception today. While networks have been walking a fine line demanding fees for carriage and then offering the same content free for streaming on the web, it is sometimes in the public good to agree with that irony.

I am speaking about next weeks coverage of the inauguration of Barack Obama. Last night, I asked my son's teacher if they were planning to watch his swearing in and speech in their classroom. She replied that not every classroom has cable TV access, but that they all do have internet access. And so the power of technology will allow these students the ability to watch live what is sure to be remembered as an historic event. "Hulu, the Webcaster jointly owned by News Corp. and NBC Universal, will carry a two-hour stream of Fox Broadcasting's live coverage of the swearing-in ceremony from noon to 2 p.m. ET." And while today it is possible to tape the coverage and replay at a later date, technology has provided us the ability to watch it live through multiple devices. In the days of Kennedy, broadcast or radio were the only means to connect; today, the rise of cable and web access has enabled even more accessibility to this historic event. "'In 2009, the word (for all-news outlets) is ubiquity,' MSNBC's Griffin said. 'We're in places where you don't normally see us.'"

For my son, and other students around the country, I hope TV or web access is available at your school to take advantage of and be part of what is sure to be a long remembered experience for this Country.

SAG Still Squabbling - No Strike Authorization Ballot Yet

Infighting can be the death of any family or any business. The same holds true for the Screen Actors Guild Union. Keep their head negotiator, or fire him, the membership is clearly at odds within their organization but their course of action. "A meeting of the full board of directors of the Screen Actors Guild, which lasted more than 30 hours on Monday and Tuesday, concluded without setting a mailing date for a strike authorization ballot and without the removal of controversial head negotiator Doug Allen." Nor is SAG is negotiation yet with AMPTP with whom they have not had a contract since last June. The only meetings are internal and even those ones can't find agreement.

The course of action is painfully obvious. Analyzing the current economic environment, reviewing the terms of the current signed agreements with other unions, and agree to structure an agreement that emulates their term AND expires at the same time as their agreements. The greatest revenue is still in the hands of traditional distribution and their is no missed opportunity to follow a wait and see strategy. New media is still a nascent business and a few years won't hurt you economically. Structure your new terms to expire concurrently with AFTRA or the Writers Union or both and utilize the leverage of this partnership in the next negotiation. But for now, stop threatening strike and sign a short term contract.

Movies via the Internet, How Can VOD Compete

It is no surprise that Blockbuster is copying the Netflix business model and bringing streaming video to their consumers via the web. But it is also clear that Netflix is light years ahead as the leader of the field and Blockbuster ranks an also ran. As Netflix announces additional partners, Blockbuster is just starting but can they catch up?

It gets me to thinking, where is cable and VOD in this discussion. Netflix does not have the full library to stream and Apple is a transactional business. Cable, on the other hand, provides a huge library of TV and movie product, some free, some with monthly subscription to a premium channel, and the rest transactional. How can cable and VOD maintain its lead and market share in this ever changing distribution pipeline.

I have a number of suggestions:

1. I believe that Netflix and Blockbuster subscribers are also film lovers and most likely also cable customers. Research should be done to determine that overlap. Would a satisfactory experience with one service lead to the consumer to drop the other?

2. Improve the set top box - better search, faster response, cleaner look. Make the set top box smarter so that on demand viewing doesn't switch off if the DVR in the box is recording. And make it easier to move content from one TV set in the house to another. The box is there, adding access to the internet puts you in the game, too.

3. Trick features on VOD films. Sure, disable the fast forward when the ad is in the pre-roll, but in movies especially, enable chapters markers so that consumers can move forward to sections of the film they want to watch rather than fast forward through the entire stream.

4. Content is King. And exclusivity on libraries of content can be merchandised back to the consumer. If you own it, they will come.

5. Interactivity. And when content is universal, how you differentiate it, matters. Adding trivia under a movie, enabling e-commerce, contests, etc. can all be effective tools to make the viewing experience unique to cable.

So as the talk moves to video streaming on the web, remember that cable is already bringing HD quality VOD content to the big screen. It just needs to be better marketed and monetized.

Cable-Ready vs. Internet-Ready TVs

Just a few years ago, all the talk was about cable ready TV sets and cablecards to bypass set top boxes and get direct connections from TV to cable programming. But today, those conversations are barely heard; instead, the talk is around TV manufacturers building sets that connect directly to the web. And while they don't bypass cable programming in the process, they certainly minimize their value and exclusivity, enabling content off the web to be sen on the big screen. Today, most of that content (UGC mainly) is poor, but the rise of Hulu, and other sites with broadcast and professional content, bypasses the linear channel and VOD for what I guess can be called WOD (web on demand). And that will change the business model - "Once the average living-room TV can tune in those sites as easily as NBC or Comedy Central, viewers may be hard-pressed to justify paying $80 a month for the few shows or networks they can't stream for free from the Net. And cable and satellite operators may find themselves having to cut rates after having increased them steadily for years."

The other discussion that has been proposed for years by the FCC has been a la carte pricing, enabling the consumer to purchase individual networks, rather than bundles of programming. "The good thing is technology may soon make this debate obsolete. While channels may not be offered a la carte anytime soon, in many cases, the programming on these channels already is. Take TNT—episodes of its original shows The Closer, Saving Grace, Leverage, and the soon-to-premiere Trust Me can all be seen on TNT's website. Other broadcast and cable networks also offer much of their content for free either on their own sites or other sites." The rise of "WOD" programming and networks (Next New Networks, My Damn Channel, etc.) would indicate that any channel can escape the clutches of poor positioning or bundling on a higher priced tier of networks to connect directly to their viewer via a web network.

The biggest obstacle facing a full blown access of networks on the web, whether streaming or on demand, remains the current cable model of subscription. While the niche and newer networks see access as more important than subscriber fees, the mainstay networks would be hard pressed to lose that substantial revenue source. Viacom and Time Warner just renegotiated their agreement for fees at the beginning of the year. And cable operators, seeing more broadband usage from their customers, will most certainly raise their fees to offset a loss in cable revenue.

Web access is a trend that is not going away. What cable nets did to the broadcast model, web nets will certainly do to the cable model. Remember, early cable programming wasn't strong either, but it did get better. So too will web programming.

Let’s Invent an iTunes for News

Not for nothing, but haven't I been saying the same thing in older blogs. Perhaps I have been taking it from the device side, hoping that Apple would devise a Kindle like product with its own special touches; but at the same time, suggesting an ability to subscribe and receive daily or weekly newspapers or magazines downloaded to the device. But to the NYT credit, an iTunes app would enable ownership, not only to the device, but to the PC as well, so that one subscription could be shared and downloaded to other members of the family. Like iTunes does with the iPod, allowing multiple devices to share music and video content. Why shouldn't an iTunes print category do the same thing.

And speaking about Steve Jobs, David Carr writes "Remember that when iTunes began, the music industry was being decimated by file sharing. By coming up with an easy user interface and obtaining the cooperation of a broad swath of music companies, Mr. Jobs helped pull the business off the brink. ... Those of us who are in the newspaper business could not be blamed for hoping that someone like him comes along and ruins our business as well by pulling the same trick: convincing the millions of interested readers who get their news every day free on newspapers sites that it’s time to pay up." Jobs made it okay to purchase content and not simply take it from a P2P site. Now if only Steve Jobs and Apple could pull the same feat with printed content.

Everything to Connect to the Web, But What About Interconnectivity?

As the Consumer Electronics Show comes to an end in 2009, all the buzz seems to be connectivity to the internet, but what about interconnectivity. Does every device need to pull from the web, or will there be networking that remains inside my home. And while it is nice to pull movies off the web to a TV set, there is some content I already own on my PC that I want to move easily as well. For music, home movies, even photos, how can I best network my home to take advantage of this content. Do I need to push all this data first out to the web before getting back to my home. Linking to the web is nice, linking to my own home network is nicer.

And what about the content being generated by my own home. How about the refrigerator pinging me that I need to change the water filter, or keeping a grocery list of items inside that are running low. How about remote connection to my HVAC system so that I can adjust temperatures if I forgot to reset my temperature gauge when away from the house; or pinging me on my cell phone if the alarm goes off. How these devices converge and interact is perhaps an even bigger win for technology in the coming years.

Is Online Video Too Fragmented To Survive?

A recessionary economy, lower ad spending, and too many viewing options hurting the entire industry. In the good ole days, the choices for ad spending were limited - print, radio, TV. And inside each of these buckets were limited choices; for TV a handful of broadcast channels, for print, a handful of newspapers and magazines, and for radio, AM or FM stations. Today, technology has lowered the barriers to entry in each of these arenas as well as enable new sources of content distribution to emerge. In TV, there are many cable, VOD, and now internet streaming choices; In radio, the rise of satellite with SiriusXM and internet radio. And in print, the internet has hurt the printed product. But the ad dollars may not have grown as quickly as the players and getting your "fair share" of the media buy is harder and harder. In addition, by lowering the barrier to entry, technology has dealt a heavy blow to the subscription model. Where companies have enjoyed two streams of revenue, the adage why buy the cow if the milk is free comes to mind; why buy a subscription if it is free to view, read, or hear somewhere else.

This proliferation of content has created what many call the "long tail", scratching away at the mainstays and developing niches and even "sub" niches of categories. And while there is literally something for everyone to read, hear, or watch, these content specialty stores may be too limited in the long run to survive. "BitGravity CEO Perry Wu said time was already up for many of the smaller online video development and distribution studios: 'We work with hundreds of content companies and to be honest, many of them won’t survive.'" The classic product/industry life cycle theory says that eventually it will move from fragmented back to fewer, meaningful, larger segments over time. And if advertising isn't paying the bills, these smaller content creators will either merge or die.

Another popular maxim is that the big fish will eat the little fish and perhaps that is what the industry expects to happen. Already broadcast companies like CBS, NBC, ABC, and Fox have acquired cable networks and websites. Cablevision and Fox own newspapers; Magazine publishers are building web portals. It seems their is more consolidation to come. But is it aggregating fast enough and are these big box companies using their advertising arms to sell across platforms or are they not synergized and find themselves believing that each arm should sell advertising independently of its other pieces.

So is it already too fragmented? Yes. Cable Operators have watched the many become the few and independent cable networks are purchased by the bigger companies. Magazines are closing and newspapers are replacing print with online editions. How much more growth is in new entrants to the internet stream or will innovation start coming from inside the existing big fish. Hey, Hulu came from NBC and Fox to challenge You Tube. I can assure you this, it's going to be an interesting ride.

Vizio Connected HDTVs

"Everybody is launching networked TVs it seems, but Vizio's 'Connected HDTV' sounds killer: Built-in 802.11n Wi-Fi, with every service you'd want: Amazon, Blockbuster and Netflix VOD, Pandora, Flickr, Rhapsody, plus any other Yahoo widget. Not there, you notice is Hulu. BUT, Vizio says they're in 'deep talks' with them. So Hulu, directly integrated into your TV, looks likely." So another device that connects to the web. Is the Vizio Tru2way compatible also so that it can work without another "converter box" next to it? Or is Vizio trying to create a model to eliminate cable subscription? Not true, according to their release. "VIZIO’s “Connected HDTV” Platform is designed to compliment TV viewing. At a single touch of the VIZIO customized remote control, viewers can access their favorite Internet content from the easy to navigate on screen display, without interrupting the TV program they are viewing. " Unfortunately, the other thing missing is a discussion about a Cablecard. And so while their new remote with qwerty keyboard looks cool, it may have to still share the coffee table with the tradition universal remote.

We seem to be box happy with gaming consoles and dvd players attached to our TVs as well. Can my shelf hold a Wii, PS3, XBox, Blu-ray, Mototola or S-A converter box. Or will it crash under the sheer weight. And while it is nice to hear about a "connected platform", does that connection extend to my own home computer? The average consumer seeks a solution where it is plug and play ready, interactive and interoperable, talking easily to the various devices in the home, and managed wirelessly from a single remote or mobile device. Connecting to the web is nice, but the Xbox and Roku and other devices do that already.

Markey: Feb. 17 DTV Date May Have To Move

There is a digital coupon shortage. Many people, mainly those without cable, aren't thinking about or prepared for the digital conversion. Advertising messages in the beginning were confusing, so that cable customers without a set top box thought they needed to put converter boxes on every TV. And many fingers are being pointed.

Now a major consumer advocate, "Consumers Union (CU) late Wednesday asked the heads of the congressional committees with telecommunications oversight, as well as the current and future administrations, to consider delaying the Feb. 17, 2009 transition date." And Congress may be listening as Ed Markey, the Democratic Representative from Massachusetts and new chairman of the House Energy and Commerce Committee is looking hard at pushing back the February 17 date.

While digital converters cost less than an iPod, Congress does not want to force its citizens to purchase; the coupon could offset the entire price of a low end converter. But with problems moving out enough coupons and the transition date less than 6 weeks away, it is my guess that this delay will occur. But will it be 1 month, 6 months, or a year? "Consumers Union has suggested a move of four months or so, according to a CNBC interview with CU senior counsel Chris Murray, the other signature on the CU letter. Murray told CNBC that he thought there was a 'reasonably good chance' that Congress would push the date back four months or so. "

Will New Media Kill The New York Times Print Edition

Every new year brings new predictions and one making the rounds is that heavy debt structures on the N.Y. Times could be the final straw come mid year. Certainly they are trying to sell some assets, including their share of the Boston Red Sox, but is it and front page advertising enough to save this old grey lady. Atlantic Monthly doesn't think so. "It’s certainly plausible. Earnings reports released by the New York Times Company in October indicate that drastic measures will have to be taken over the next five months or the paper will default on some $400million in debt. With more than $1billion in debt already on the books, only $46million in cash reserves as of October, and no clear way to tap into the capital markets (the company’s debt was recently reduced to junk status), the paper’s future doesn’t look good."

But does bankruptcy mean stoppage. Not necessarily. Bankruptcy is a do-over and may enable the Times and other papers like it to reinvent themselves into a leaner, meaner, more profitable news organization again. Consumers do read the Times and other web sites aggregate its content. Its the subscription model that is changing as content is simply accessed and not purchased. Can the Times save its subscription model by utilizing new technology - would electronic distribution on Kindle, iPhone, Sony Reader and others in a readable form be convenient enough for consumers to purchase. Or does content need to be made exclusive, with more controls to limit its availability without subscription. Or will advertising rates need to increase to offset subscription losses.

And so the predictions..."Regardless of what happens over the next few months, The Times is destined for significant and traumatic change. At some point soon—sooner than most of us think—the print edition, and with it The Times as we know it, will no longer exist. And it will likely have plenty of company. In December, the Fitch Ratings service, which monitors the health of media companies, predicted a widespread newspaper die-off: 'Fitch believes more newspapers and news paper groups will default, be shut down and be liquidated in 2009 and several cities could go without a daily print newspaper by 2010.'” A sad day indeed when the print newspaper no longer exists; let's hope that electronic subscriptions, with ergonomically designed readers to provide a satisfying reading experience, enables these news organizations to survive and thrive.

N.Y. Times' Cover Ads Go For Big Bucks

Why is this a surprise, especially this article in the N.Y. Post. Last year, the Wall Street Journal was first to put ads on their front page. In fact, the WSJ is owned by Murdoch who also owns the Post. Unfortunately, it is a necessary means for survival as other papers including USA Today have already known. As subscriptions and revenue drop, new opportunities are needed to engage the audience. Will we perhaps one day have ads inside articles, I hope not. Can you just imagine reading the paper on President Obama and in the middle of the article see "...and President Obama, sipping a Diet Coke, that refreshing taste!, in his cabinet meeting announced new reforms...". Product placement inside print content, perhaps the last straw, but it follows the same type of in-program content that TV shows utilize today. Its why Simon drinks Coke on American Idol every week. As newspapers seek new avenues of advertising, the front page becomes the pre-roll of print. And at "$75,000 on weekdays and $100,000 on Sundays, according to several ad buyers who asked to remain unnamed" the return is profitable.

Blu-Ray Struggles With Uncertain Prospects

The Consumer Electronics Show is here for another year with glimpses of future technology promises. And in the world of DVD players, Blu-Ray came out the winner over HD DVD, but will it be a long lasting victory or a mere blip in an ever changing entertainment landscape. Is the pace of change so fast that streaming media will replace Blu-Ray even before it gets to enjoy its victory?

As a pack rat, I have a habit of collecting and holding on to things. But recently, I have come to realize that I can download music and "own" it without buying the CD. I very rarely buy one, with the last one being as a gift for my daughter. As I get into this habit of downloading, I can see myself moving in that direction with DVDs. As a family, we tend to check out first what is on VOD before going into our DVD selection. As the internet opens up to potentially a larger selection, how we search for movies and what content is "recommended" to us, has appeal. At the same time, should I decide to buy it, I want the ability to download the best quality movie to burn on my own DVD. And as flash drives become more commonplace to capture this content and share it on other devices - a portable dvd player, PC, cellphone, or my car's dvd system, I will prefer the advantage of the flash drive's smaller size to that of the DVD. That, in addition to being less likely to be scratched or damaged with repeated play, appeals to me.

"One reason is that discs of all kinds may become obsolete as a new wave of digital media services starts to flow into the living room. On Monday, for example, the Korean television maker LG Electronics plans to announce a new line of high-definition televisions that connect directly to the Internet with no set-top box required. The televisions will be able to play movies and television shows from online video-on-demand services, including Netflix." While it sounds great that LG is coming up with TVs that connect directly to the web, it is more important that this feature also allows for download as well. Until then, other devices like Blu-ray DVDs, XBox, PS3, Roku and others may have the leg up, especially if they allow me to save and share my purchases.

Viacom Apologizes For Ads Attacking Time Warner Cable

I guess Viacom was expecting a long fight - placing ads in major markets continuing to blast away at Time Warner. Unfortunately, what they didn't expect, actually occurred, a quick resolution to their negotiations. And so, "Viacom issued an apology Friday for ads blasting Time Warner Cable over the companies' carriage dispute that ran in Jan. 2 editions of newspapers in at least five markets, one day after reaching an eleventh-hour agreement in principle resolving the fight."

Moral - Never assume anything!

Time Warner Cable and Viacom reach deal

Despite the New Year's Ball dropping, Time Warner and Viacom were able to negotiate a deal and avoid customer complaints in 2009. Who won will never be completely known, but you can guess that rates were raised and eventually trickle down means that the consumer will pay more. It certainly got nasty as ads showing Dora the Explorer crying were in major newspapers and crawls on the channels in question were nationally broadcast. And in today's paper, an ad still appears telling consumers to go to Direct TV, Dish, or Verizon to get these channels. I guess Viacom was not expecting a quick agreement.