TV Ad Sales Market Rebounding

Despite the internet, despite VOD and DVR, despite other media, the TV business is growing again. "Barclays Capital analyst Anthony DiClemente expects upfront ad dollars for the four major broadcast networks -- ABC, CBS, Fox and NBC -- to rise 20 percent to $8.26 billion this year." Good news for the broadcast networks, and certainly good news for the cable nets as well. Advertisers seek TV for their media budget.

At the same time, let's hope that these same advertisers recognize that the only way to break out of the clutter is to diversify so that your message resonates across platforms. Out of box creative, entertaining copy, targeted placement to the key audience groups, can further assure that your message is heard and that consumer purchasing action occurs. And the choices for placement is vast. Besides TV, radio and billboards, newspaper and magazines have not gone away either. A solid direct marketing approach will also enable messages to enter into the home. And then there is social networking. It may appear to be a very inexpensive means to talk to the consumer but viral doesn't necessarily cause results. Social networking opportunities need to co-exist with these other media platforms to truly connect consumers with brands.

And so it is great to hear that spending is rising; let's hope the trend continues across platforms. Healthy spending indicates a better economy. And in this changing entertainment landscape, it's nice to see some good news.

Sirius May Be Safe From NASDAQ Delisting

Now that Sirius' stock price has been up over a buck for over a week, surviving yesterdays market downturn, it seems that Sirius will be safe from delisting. "Wall Street brokerages have price targets on Sirius at around $1.15 to $1.35 a share, not far above the $1.145 that the stock closed at on Tuesday, which was the 10th day that it has ended above $1, satisfying a Nasdaq listing requirement." Let's hope that there is more good news in store for Sirius.

The Problem With Media Convergence

Last night, I sat down to watch Channel 5 in New York, Fox News at 10. One of the stories was about the launch of The Wall Street Journal's new Greater New York section of the paper. The anchors and reporter all held up the edition and effused at how wonderful this edition was and all the news it contained. It mentioned how it competed with The New York Times. Oh, did I mention how wonderful this new section was, per each anchor's comments. This 3 minute plus "news piece" was then followed by the weather.

At no point did the news segment mention one very important fact; that both the Fox Affiliate and The Wall Street Journal are owned by the same organization, News Corporation. Sure there are lots of bloggers and other outlets to provide multiple points of view to a story. But, when two of the largest news organizations merge, they can incorrectly present news as something else. I can not tell you if the Fox news story was actually news or promotional advertising for The Wall Street Journal. It hurts both organizations "credibility" and "truthfulness". Fine to share a "story"; but next time, tell us all the facts; else, we may raise more of a red flag when multiple news outlets in a market converge and merge.

Kindle vs iPad, Which To Buy For E-reading

Thinking of switching from paper to plastic; sorry, I mean from paper to e-reader. Is now the time to make a switch? Which device to choose - Kindle, Nook, iPad, etc. "Amazon is clearly emphasizing Kindle sales and its status as their premier product in response to the potential competitiveness from Apple’s tablet device, the iPad. Amazon subsequently released its own iPad app for the Kindle, to compete with iBooks." So how will it really shake out.

Obviously Kindle has a good year's jump on Apple but the iPad is proving to be a formidable competitor. And I wouldn't look too closely at this first generation product as speculation of iPad's future models make it even more of a must have product. And how many devices must we carry remotely to be connected: a phone, a reader, a laptop. As our phones provide web connections, with video, do we need a reader to do the same. Or should it remain true to its core use, bringing the written page to a device in an easy to read manner, emulating a book design, but lighter and easier to hold and carry. Can the iPad compete in this scenario or are its uses best needed elsewhere. Could the Kindle and iPad prove more complementary than competitive.

Ultimately the consumer will decide how they best want to use each of these devices and how each fits into their daily lives. As for me, I continue to wait. Still too early to buy, but certainly engaged in their progress and which would better work for me.

Can A Free Website Make Money With A Pay Platform

Hulu, that online alternative to cable TV, is moving away from a free website model. Not satisfied with an ad supported revenue model, Hulu seeks a second source of income with a pay model approach. "Under the proposal, Hulu would continue to provide for free the five most recent episodes of shows like Fox's "Glee," "ABC's "Lost" or NBC's "Saturday Night Live." But viewers who want to see additional episodes would pay $9.95 a month to access a more comprehensive selection, called Hulu Plus, these people said." But will consumers pay?

And no doubt that these pay programs will also include commercials so essentially you are paying for cable on the web. So the choice, pay your cable bill or your Hulu bill. But wait, isn't the reason consumers cut their cord to cable is because they were tired of paying for TV. What was once free should be free again. So to ask these users to start paying again may present them with a bit of a dilemma. How the consumer responds and how much revenue Hulu receives from this new model will ultimately decide whether it expands or dies on the vine.

Can consumers accept an online subscription service for TV programming? Will they start paying for something they have been getting free for a couple of years? Or will they move away from Hulu and seek their content from other sources? Clearly this move by Hulu is a stepping stone. Most current content is still available for free. This subscription model is clearly aimed at the heavy user. But losing your best customer could be a concern to Hulu. A drop in use will affect ad revenue and could prove disastrous. Once you lose a customer, it is hard to win them back. So be careful of this slippery slope you are taking; it could be profitable, but it could also end your business.

It's Starting...Cable Losing Its Live Advantage

In many discussions in this blog and others about consumer cord cutting, cable's one advantage has been live programming. Sure you could drop your cable subscription and get broadcast channels with a digital antenna. Sure you could drop your cable subscription and watch The Daily Show or Mad Men or some other cable show on Hulu. Sure you could drop cable and watch movies on demand from Netflix, Amazon, and others through the XBox, Playstation3, or Wii. But you couldn't watch live sports outside of broadcast. Till now.

"Major League Baseball is upping its digital game again, bringing live sports to the videogame console for the first time. The league will make its MLB.TV subscription service available through the Sony PlayStation 3, which has made its way into more than 12 million US homes." It will only be a matter of time before the other leagues offer similar packages.

Now customers that subscribe on cable should be asking, why should I pay twice for access across devices. You shouldn't. Tools exist today to bring TV to you, wherever, whenever, whatever you decide. It is just that your cable operator prefers to keep old set top boxes in the home and not try to offer new technology. With Slingbox and other tools, programs can follow you. With better DVR devices, programming can be presented more intuitively and with more flexibility. And the tools exist to make incremental revenues from these devices.

Except your cable company is not even trying to compete. As their mantra is to save a customer from defecting to telco and dish, they forget that the customer is also leaving the cable landscape completely, preferring to get their programming via broadband access. And as customers have found that their cable box doesn't connect to the web, but their TV and game console does. And as more programming populates these other connections, cable defection will only increase.

Consumers Want What Apple Got

Once again, Apple had higher revenues than projected thanks to the iPod, iPhone, and laptops. "Most impressive: Apple shipped 8.75 million iPhones last quarter, versus expectations around 7 million. Incredibly, iPhone sales more-than doubled vs. the prior year.
Mac sales were solid: 2.94 million shipped, versus expectations around 2.7 million. And Apple's iPod business is still showing signs of life: 10.89 million units shipped vs. 9 million Street consensus." And since iPad numbers weren't part of the quarter, we can only expect stronger revenue for the next quarter. Consider that the more units sold, the more consumers to access the Apple App Store and thus even more business selling bits and bytes. No manufacturing costs, no added labor costs. The rise of the App Store and applications for sale means more revenue and more profit for Apple.

Even more exciting is what Steve Jobs has up his sleeve for his next product. "Apple CEO Steve Jobs took the opportunity to tease new products in the company's earnings release. 'We've launched our revolutionary new iPad and users are loving it, and we have several more extraordinary products in the pipeline for this year,' Jobs said in a canned quote." I can't wait!

Is Lost iPhone A Big Deal?

Normally a lost iPhone is no big deal; just go to the store and buy another one. But when it is a prototype of a next generation phone, it could be a problem. The worst kept secret was that a next generation iPhone would be release; the best kept secret, until yesterday, was what modifications would be made. "From the front, it looks similar to the current iPhone, but it has sharper edges and is a little thinner. The volume and power buttons are stylistically different, and the back of the phone appears to be a ceramic glass, which would enable better reception. That would address a persistent problem that has plagued the iPhone since its inception three years ago."

And while it may at first blush feel like a nightmare, it may, in fact, be a marketing coup. I for one, am now more excited about getting an iPhone. I only wish that the news included more exact dates when it would be made available on the Verizon network. And while Steve Jobs may be angry that his security was compromised, I am confident that he will turn lead into gold, marketing gold! And so take your lumps to get your prototype returned. But in the long run, the Apple brand continues to represent the pinnacle of what a mobile device offers.

BlackArrow Nabs Strategic Investment from NDS

Lots of talk about advertising in the mobile space, less so about the VOD space. But as more people watch on demand, making sure the ads inside the programs are relevant is a big job. And to switch out on the fly and target to the household is the biggest opportunity. "BlackArrow is best known for being able to dynamically insert targeted ads into video-on-demand platforms, and has signed up customers like Comcast an Fox Cable Networks to do so. Without technology like BlackArrow’s, adds that appear in cable VOD systems are typically stitched into the video itself, which limits the flexibility of the ads that can appear."

In the last few years, Black Arrow has been developing these tools and with the latest round of funding from NDS seem ready to finally break through. And as this application can apply to VOD, DVR, and other broadband streams, the opportunities only grow. Providing one trafficking system that can do it all (VOD, DVR, linear broadcast and cable TV and broadband video services) should be an economic boon to cable and broadband content providers that distribute programming.

Cablevision, Comcast, TWC Hook Up On Wi-Fi

"Cablevision Systems, Comcast and Time Warner Cable announced reciprocal agreements Thursday to let their broadband subscribers access any of the operators' Wi-Fi hotspots across the New York metro area. According to the cable companies, no money is changing hands as part of the agreement. As of April 15, authentication for all three operators is present on every access point."

Or you can find your nearest Starbucks, McDonalds, Library, or other establishment outside your home. Get the feeling they are just a little late to the game. Perhaps cable companies need to name their hot spots, else we won't know where to go.

NBC, Fox Team Up for Mobile Content Service

As we become a more mobile, untethered society, it is nice to know that our content will find us. "A consortium composed of some of the nation's biggest broadcasters -- including News Corp.'s Fox, NBC Universal, Gannett Broadcasting, Hearst Television, ION Television and Cox Media Group -- has struck a deal to create a joint venture to develop programming for mobile devices." Great for the networks to find perhaps another revenue stream for subscription to the same content as cable. Sad for the cable companies if we can learn how to move the mobile content around in our home so we can bypass cable. An opportunity for cable companies to enable TV Anywhere through the cable box, i.e. Slingbox. A loss if the cable companies aren't reacting and acting as leaders rather than followers.

I can only point to history to change the future. The cable companies are looking like AOL, once top of the mountain, but soon, a footnote to the future. When you are the leader you must continue to change as external and internal forces change. AOL did not react to changes in broadband and their dial up business and subscription revenue died. As mobility takes a stronger foothold, consumes are enjoying the opportunity to cut their cable cord. Before it becomes a problem, cable companies need to be the choice to offer TV Anywhere. Unless they do, cable companies will become simply a dumb pipe to the home.

Nearly 800,000 U.S. TV households 'cut the cord,' report says

Notice all the HDTV set advertising internet connections. So are blu-ray players, Playstations, XBoxes, and Wiis. Notice how many are offering cableCard connections. None. As consumers have grown tired of their cable provider, they have found respite with broadband. Which means cutting the subscription to cable and perhaps even their hard wired phone and settling with broadband only. With content available through the web there is no need for HBO; rather Netflix, Amazon, Blockbuster, and Apple become their alternative. Hulu for cable and a digital antenna to receive broadcast channels.

"Now, as TechCrunch points out, the estimated 800,000 cord cutters represent less than 1 percent of the 100 million U.S. households (give or take) currently subscribing to a cable/satellite/telco TV carrier, so it's not like we're talking a mass exodus here. But by the end of 2011, the report guesstimates, the number of cord-cutting households in the U.S. will double to about 1.6 million".

It is time for cable companies to wake up and act. Make the internet the friend to your cable box. Add Slingbox and Tivo to the set top box; let third party manufacturers sell a converter box. Stop pretending that the CableCard works. The brick the cable companies require on each of our TV sets makes them look like old, out of touch companies, while Apple and others have built products that are sleek and modern and ergonomically designed. The current cable box is not. Change now or risk more and more cord cutting. Cause once you lose them, it is hard to win them back!

Is 3D TV Dangerous To You Health?

Who would have guessed that watching too much TV was dangerous to your health. Certainly that was a warning our parents' gave us to encourage us as kids to play outside. Perhaps they weren't lying. "Guidelines for Samsung's new line of 3D TVs warn against prolonged exposure to 3D TVs for kids (kids under 6 shouldn't watch at all), teens, pregnant women, the elderly, sleep-deprived people and anyone buzzed on alcohol." Certainly in legally sensitive times, all products have warnings. But now a warning to not watch too much. Will that slow down sales of 3D TV sets? Probably not. Still I am not yet a fan of purchasing one yet. For me a big screen HDTV is exactly what I need, with no glasses required!

Late Night Wars - Conan to TBS

Conan wouldn't move from 11p to 12a, but George Lopez will. And so the late night arena gets even more crowded. Are there enough guests to go around? Or will this proliferation kill the genre. How each show differentiates itself from its rivals and finds its audience will be crucial to success.

Fox was the first option but their 11pm slot is filled with very successful syndicated programming. Why switch a ratings winner with an unknown quantity. For TBS, Conan brings more legitimacy to the late night arena. Still, I would have loved to see him try a show earlier in the night. A show at 7pm, when the audience is awake, might have been an opportunistic move. And with the rise of DVR and VOD, the show could be watched later in the evening by its audience. And it would avoid the clutter, too.

Will Conan be successful? Hard to say. As he may have learned from NBC, his success may just depend on his lead in. Without compelling program beforehand, viewers may be reluctant to turn the channel just to see him. It didn't work with Jay Leno in front of him; hopefully, he has a better chance at TBS.

Are You Tired of Your Cable Box?

Have you ever thought about the differences between accessing content on your TV verse accessing from the web? Do you find yourself making excuses? It's always been this way, no keyboard, it's good enough. Well it isn't. Unfortunately with the control in the hands of cable companies, there is little reason to change. And so if you can't go through the mountain, go around them.

"Most TV sets for sale by 2013 will be able to connect to the Internet right out of the box, setting the stage for companies such as Google Inc., Yahoo! Inc. and Intel Corp., to make televisions a lot more like computers and smartphones." As content companies find revenue models that work without the cable company, they will provide channels through IP technology. Notice that TV manufacturers have stopped trying to work with cable companies. These TV sets don't have Tru2way or CableCard technology to easily connect to programming; no, they are all connecting via the internet. And as more compelling content gets presented through the internet, cable subscription will drop.

Cable companies will complain that there are too many legacy set top boxes out in the market and too expensive to change. But they won't even allow a third party manufacturer to sell a box directly to the consumer. Wouldn't you love to see a Tivo box that can actually access on demand. How about an authorized Apple set top box with internet and cable access. It is time for cable companies to see the future and change else they will become like AOL. Once the top ISP and now simply a footnote.

Tivo and Dish, Will They Merge?

Dish has lost the fight against Tivo. In fact, Dish has until the end of the month to either pay or turning off their customers' DVRs. Heaven forbid the latter, as they would have a nightmare on their hands. And so the Citibank speculation is that Echostar will acquire Tivo.

Sounds simple, but life never is. Despite expecting a huge settlement, Tivo also has other suits to settle and potentially an even larger payout. Is Dish their best partner or would it make more sense to price itself out to the highest bidder. Maybe Direct TV has an interest or even Verizon. And don't forget Comcast although their hands are full with the NBC Universal merger attempt.

So watch the stock market closely as the financial players might smell M&A blood.

The Internet’s Last Hope

Great article in Mother Jones:

"This week, the DC Circuit Court of Appeals dealt what looked like a deathblow to "net neutrality," the principle that Internet providers shouldn't get to pick and choose which information moves quickest over the web. The Federal Communications Commission (FCC) has one last chance to prevent these companies from fundamentally changing how the Internet works—and not for the better. But will the commissioners take on the telecoms?"
http://motherjones.com/politics/2010/04/net-neutrality-fcc

All Web Traffic Is Not Equal - No Net Neutrality

I guess I am a bit surprised that there has not been much discussion regarding the court's ruling against the FCC and overturning net neutrality. "Federal regulators lacked authority to censure Comcast Corp. for interfering with subscribers’ Internet traffic, a U.S. court said in a decision that could limit the government’s power to police companies’ Web behavior." That is to say that your broadband company can determine which web sites get priority for speeds to your home. This could be most troubling for bandwidth heavy video content companies like Netflix, Amazon, and yes, even Hulu. Instant streaming could be slowed down for other priorities, for example, Comcast's Fancast.

There is much involved in this decision and revisions in policy may need to be considered in order to create a fair and competitive digital landscape. "The decision 'creates a dangerous situation, one where the health and the openness of the Internet is being held hostage' to the behavior of telephone and cable companies that own the wires used for Internet traffic to homes and businesses, said the Open Internet Coalition in an e-mailed statement." For now it is Comcast over the FCC; but in the battle verse the war, there may be more to consider. Comcast's merger application with NBC is also in front of the FCC. And should hard feelings remain, that approval may be affected.

Should You Buy an iPad Today?

A friend of mine wrote me wondering if she should buy her husband an iPad for his birthday. And my advice to her was to wait. It seems I am not alone. "After all the hype, after all the reviews, tweets and blog posts analyzing every detail of the iPad, from the placement of the headphone jack to the reflective qualities of its glass screen, you may still be wondering: Should I buy one?
In one word: no. Well, let me revise that: not yet." And that was my same advice. Despite its potential, it is still a work in progress, just like the iPod and the iPhone were when they were launched. Apple creates amazing machines but they require a learning curve to get them to their best potential. And so the iPod became the iTouch and the iPhone found religion with 3G. The same will hold true for the iPad.

In fact, I can see its potential as a device in each room of the house, just like each TV in your house has its own remote. The beauty is that they all talk, not only to each other, but to your other mobile devices as well. Will the iPad become a more mobile device as well; perhaps in time. "It weighs too much to hold in the hand comfortably as an e-reader. It’s not so easy to sync documents with another computer. The Apple iPad case, which also serves as a stand, isn’t steady enough. And on and on." For this and other reasons, Apple needs time to get feedback, adapt, and grow. They have the appeal, they have the fans, they have the time. They have built another revolutionary device that over time will only get better. Apple is truly a leader in the industry.

An iPad Newsstand

What Apple's iTunes did to the music store, Apple's iPad will do to the newsstand and perhaps even the bookstore. "Some publishers say they also worry iTunes sales leave them at the mercy of Apple, which publishers believe has ambitions for creating an iPad "newsstand" for newspapers and magazines the way it has an iBooks storefront."

As a virtual provider of written material, consumers will find ease and convenience shopping online and stop driving to purchase. For Tower Records and HMV, the lesson was learned far too late; for Barnes & Noble and others, there is still time to adapt and prosper. Create new reasons to come into the store and to even bring the device with them. Make it a social and economic advantage and these new reading devices will be seen as complementary, not destructive to the industry.

And as the subscription business goes, what was once mailed to the home, will now be wirelessly sent. "Some newspaper and magazine companies have resisted selling through iTunes in part because more than seven of every 10 U.S. periodical copies are sold through subscriptions." But subscription revenue has been suffering and iPad could be the shot in the arm for a rebirth. And it allows publishers to update erroneous copy and remain current and time sensitive.

Apples iPad a Sales Winner

Did you buy your iPad? On ABC's TV show, Modern Family, all one character wanted for his birthday was an iPad. And so did many many others. "The company sold some 700,000 devices, Gene Munster, of Piper Jaffray & Co., said yesterday. The Minneapolis-based analyst had previously predicted sales of 200,000 to 300,000, while Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.'s Toni Sacconaghi projected 300,000 to 400,000." That is more than 2x predictions. If that trend continues, Apple will have once again slayed the market. And as new apps get written to extend the iPad's usefulness, more and more consumers will be standing in line at the Apple store to order one. Did you buy your iPad yet?

The potential is enormous. I see one potentially on every coffee table, talking wirelessly to the set top box sharing data on live games, American Idol type voting and more. I see another in the briefcase, for reading during the daily commute, at the beach or pool. I see another in the kitchen, for lists and calendars, sharing data with folks iPhones. I see a whole new relationship with computers and society. The iPad will be that next quantum leap.