When Will We No Longer Need To Carry Credit Cards

The latest Samsung smartphone commercial shows two people sharing a playlist, not songs, just a playlist.  Not as cool as it should be.  So when will a commercial show a person bumping phones with a store register to authorize a sale?  Now that would be pretty cool.  But we haven't gotten there yet.

Certainly, we are leaning that way and the discussion of mobile payment is a first step.  But most of the apps being discussed still involve a piece of plastic being swiped by a device.  Whether a credit card reader at a store or a device on a smartphone, a physical swipe is still a requirement.  For small businesses and individuals, an app like Square certainly provides a cheaper rate to process than dealing with credit card companies directly.  That rate must certainly rise or it will undoubtedly cause bigger merchandisers to complain about paying more more transaction, despite the large amount of business they deliver.

Can we find ourselves one day leaving our plastic credit cards in a drawer and not in our wallet?  The latest iteration of the iPhone decided not to add an NFC to the mix.  For Apple, it sees that the world is not yet ready for such interaction.  But it is heading that way.

Voom And Dish Head To Court

According to the news, the trial between Echostar and Voom is about to go to court.  Voom, the hi definition satellite service created by Cablevision, struggled to find viewership at a time when hi def TVs were just arriving to the consumer.  Cable networks were reluctant to build out an HD version of their channels till their was enough of a market interest.  Voom was to capture the early adopter with original HD channels across the main genres of news, music, movies, and sports.  And Echostar came on board to offer the Voom service to their consumers.  Non Dish customers could find check out Voom at Sears stores and online.  But Voom failed to find an audience and shortly thereafter, cable networks began to offer their channels in HD.  These entrenched cable brands were of more interest to consumers and Voom struggled to expand.

Ultimately, Dish and Cablevision had a falling out and Dish chose to drop the Voom service.  It has led to a protracted legal battle.  Will a trial occur or will a settlement be reached?  Will the networks of AMC (AMC, WE, IFC, Sundance) come back on Dish or will their banishment remain?  We can only watch and wait.

Dish Network Becoming An IPTV Distributor?

Dish Network may be feeling a bit stifled being a satellite cable provider.  With a world turning quickly to the web, Dish seems ready to build out its own web distribution platform of cable networks to bundle to consumers.  Among those networks that Dish is negotiating with include Viacom's channels, MTV, VH1, and others, Scripps Networks, with Food and HGTV, and Univision.  "The companies would offer an online product known as an over-the-top service, charging a lower price for a smaller bundle of channels viewable on a computer or tablet. Dish Network Corp’s service would change the dynamics of the pay-television business, breaking up the bundles that force customers to pay for channels they don’t watch. Dish’s service would change the dynamics of the pay- television business, breaking up the bundles that force customers to pay for channels they don’t watch."  For those with specific viewing interests, a smaller bundle could prove economically preferable to a large number of consumers.

Certainly, the challenge for the cable programmer is the fee that they receive under this service.  As a sub leaves a cable operator for this new service, the network loses that revenue from the left hand only to get it back in the right.  The equation works when the switch provides an incremental increase in a per sub rate; it does not, if the sub fee switch leads to a lower amount.  As license fees vary by operator for a cable service, it may be win with a major cable operator like Comcast, but a loss against an independent cable operator.

As a business, it seems a win for Dish who can expand its reach to multiple web accessing devices and expand beyond a satellite business.  It may also help drive their sales of their Blockbuster streaming service. At the same time, it will open the eyes of the major cable operators to also build their own versions of an IPTV business.  At that point, it could drive competition among cable operators.  Where once they were separated by the communities their franchise license served; a web based service lacks any geographic boundary.  Cable programming services could be offered by Comcast in a Time Warner market and vice versa.  In essence, Dish may just be opening a Pandora's Box.

TiVo Gains On Cable Boxes, Declines On Standalone

The future of TiVo cannot rest solely on winning legal fights; rather, it must survive on subscriber growth.  And it seems, that TiVo is doing well on both counts.  With the signing of Mediacom, TiVo now has access to their million video customer base to rollout TiVo DVR boxes starting next year.  More importantly, TiVo saw growth in its most recent quarter.  "For the quarter ended July 31, TiVo added 230,000 net subscribers. It was the company's fourth consecutive quarter of positive subscriber growth, again driven by gains at Virgin Media, which surpassed 1 million TiVo subscribers in July. TiVo-owned subscribers declined by 23,000, to 1.06 million, while operator subs increased 253,000, to 1.66 million."  But as the figures show, the future is aligning with cable operators, not working around them.  The addition of Mediacom is a good start, a deal with Verizon FIOS is better.

Ultimately, the future for TiVo is to get a better partnership with both Comcast Cable and Time Warner Cable.  Together, those  two cable operators wield the largest control.  Getting their agreement to rollout TiVo on their cable boxes will be the icing on the cake for TiVo.

Web Viewing On TV Most Popular - Really?

When I saw this article in All Things D, I thought I was reading an article from 2015 and not 2012.  That viewers are watching more and more web video is not to be questioned; but, if you were to guess which device was most popular, you would never guess that TV leads all devices for web video viewing.  "Consumer-tracking service NPD says TV sets are now the most popular way to watch streaming video.
NPD says 45 percent of consumers report that TV is now their primary Web video screen, up from 33 percent last year."  According to the chart, TV ranks first while computer is farther behind.



Unfortunately, I find this research hard to believe.  Not that the connected TV will inevitably be the choice of viewing, but that it already surpasses mobile devices.  And as I look at the chart, I ask, where are smartphones and iPods? And tablets at 1% is a number that makes me scratch my head too.  In my house, I have both an Xbox and a connected blu ray, but they are still used for gaming and dvds, not web video viewing.

And here is another questionable stat, "NPD says the most popular service for viewing Web content on TV is Netflix, with 40 percent of connected TV watchers using the service."  I don't doubt that Netflix  rules the roost, I simply question the research as to the device that is being used to watch these movies.  So I take the research as it is given and I wait to hear from other researchers to validate or disprove this study.

TiVo Gains From Lawsuits But What About Subs

TiVo is guaranteeing itself a nice annual revenue stream, but it seems to be coming from lawsuit wins and settlements.  The Dish victory is well known and now a settlement from Verizon keeps their momentum of protecting their intellectual license alive.  Remaining lawsuits with Time Warner Cable, Google, and Cisco may feel their best course of action will also be to settle rather than fight.

But what about the TiVo DVR product?  What does subscriber growth look like?  The product is great, but without a growing base, a long term business it is not.  It is now time to hear more about the cable deals and how TiVo will be sold and marketed to cable customers.  When will Comcast push out a TiVo DVR?  Like a tree falling in the forest, it is time to hear the fall.  TiVo is a great product that too many people don't know what they are missing.

Samsung Galaxy v Apple iPhone

My friend shared with me this video.  When it comes to smartphones, there are two camps, Apple and everyone else.  With the release today of the iPhone 5, Samsung thought to have a little fun.



Still having lost the lawsuit, owing Apple a ton of money, and watching Apple use Samsung less as its supplier, the question really will be, who has the last laugh.

Retailers Feeling Threatened By Amazon

Online retailing is real and the biggest threat to brick and mortar stores is the ability to get the same products online and in some cases cheaper.  Worse still, consumers can use box stores to browse while engaging in comparative pricing online.  And the biggest threat certainly comes from the leader of online retail, Amazon.

So it is  not surprising that stores like Wal-Mart and Target won't sell the Amazon Kindle line of products, it is that they had added their products in the first place.   "Amazon has already tested physical stores for other goods. Now, with two large chains no longer selling Kindle, speculation has grown that the dominant online retailer could open its stores where shoppers could try out and buy Kindles."  Certainly, Wal-Mart and Target, Best Buy and others have extended into the online space to compete with Amazon; it just seems odd that Amazon would consider building out a physical retail presence to match these big box stores.  It seems to me that Amazon's strength is that they don't have stores with high rents and other  fixed expenses to lower their profit margin.  Wouldn't Amazon be better served investing further in the distribution side of the business, perhaps taking an ownership stake in UPS or Fed Ex, and thus further streamline the process of moving product from warehouse to home.

Why Wal-Mart and Target thought carrying the Kindle was a good idea in the first place will always be questioned.  They knew from the outset where Amazon was coming from.  For Amazon, the question may be that the loss of these retail partners impact their Kindle business, but I doubt it.  Still if Amazon needs to become a retailer, maybe a Barnes & Noble or Toys R Us buyout is an opportunity for them.

Next Generation Of Cable TV

I have made this reference before so it is nice to see Ad Age reconfirm it; You Tube is doing to cable what cable has done to broadcast TV and broadcast to radio before it.  The next technology begins to take over as an emerging business as the leader scoffs that they are legitimate competition.  Some may see it sooner than others until ultimately the realization that they are no longer in full control comes too late.

For cable companies, it is the notion that cord cutting exists and that consumers will cut back or eliminate their cable channels for the web.  Yet, that is the direction and the pace is only increasing.  The emerging leader is Google and You Tube.  "Nearly a year into YouTube's $100 million-plus bet on content, more than 100 "original channels" have launched, and of those, 20 are now earning a million views a week."  What's interesting is that Google is also building out a cable distribution model with a fiber build in Kansas City.  With a blend of linear channels and connectivity to web content, Google may just find the right blended business to take the lead.

Of course, the bottom line is demonstrating that web can generate enough revenue to make it a financially viable long term business.  While TV viewership has always been blessed with statistics to measure perceived viewership based on sample sizes, the web and digital can deliver an actual number of views and usage.  For the long tail of programming, there may not be enough revenue to continue to produce little watched shows.  And that may be the challenge that faces more niche channels.