Karmazin Sticking with Sirius; Not Considering NBC-Comcast

Why would Mel Karmazin ever think of leaving his number one spot for working under another back inside cable. Already having that experience with Viacom, why expect that it will be any different at a proposed NBC-Comcast company. Well, to squash those rumors, Mel addressed them recently. "Speaking Monday to Neil Cavuto on Fox Business Network, Sirius XM CEO Mel Karmazin said he's got no intention of leaving the satellite radio company." Frankly, I was a little surprised to hear that it would be a possibility. Sirius has an opportunity to be so much more. Rather, Mel should stay close with John Malone and consider heading a merger of Direct TV and Sirius. That could provide greater synergy and give Mel a bigger company to run.

Time Warner To Spin Off AOL Dec. 9

According to Time Warner, content and distribution don't mix. There is no synergy and no gain to try to build out a vertical business that both creates content and distributes on a cable or web platform. First came the separation of the cable business from networks and studios and in a few weeks the web. On December 9, AOL will no longer be a Time Warner company. "AOL common stock will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange Dec. 10 under the symbol 'AOL.' On Dec. 9, Time Warner shareholders of record as of Nov. 27 will receive one share of AOL stock for every 11 shares of Time Warner stock they own."

It was AOL that many years ago actually purchased Time Warner. But the parent soon became the child and now the orphan to the business. As broadband overtake dial up, AOL lost subscribers. It switched from pay to free and built up unique branded content to keep users engaged with their site. But it could never reach its former profitable glory and Time Warner saw AOL as its albatross.

To be fair, Time Warner didn't do much to engage AOL either. At the time it was purchased, it had its own broadband service, Roadrunner. Rather than combine the entities, it allowed them to compete with each other with its own customer base. AOL lost then and AOL lost now.

For stockholders of AOL, the question will be whether to hold onto these new shares or trade them while they still have value. Can AOL survive as a standalone entity? For Time Warner, the answer may simply be, "who cares."

Twitter usage falls for second month

Is Twitter in trouble? Are users less enthralled with the service? Does this decline in usage indicate a trend? Certainly the numbers may not paint a true picture. "The number of Americans using Twitter dropped 8 percent in October from September, marking the second monthly decline for the social-networking site this year, according to research firm ComScore Inc." Twitter is being incorporated into a number of other sites, Facebook, Linked In, etc.; are they being counted, too? I am not a fan of Twitter but I didn't expect the Twitter train to fall off the tracks that fast. Still, I find myself less glued to a screen with Twitter updates. In the meantime, let's just keep watching the activity to see if this decline continues into month 3.

Cable Basic Subscribers Continue to Decline

Quarter after quarter, basic cable subscription continues to drop. While cable continues to sell more services to is customers, their core base is declining. And where are they headed? Well, with basic subs are leaving cable every quarter, telco and satellite basic subs are increasing.

Eventually, that declining base will limit who can be upsold; cable is losing its base and those are the folks that buy high speed and wireline services. Its time to start differentiating cable from its competitors; better converter boxes and top service. Otherwise, cable will keep bleeding subs and find itself losing revenue in as prices drop to match competitive pressures.

Blockbuster's loss widens in Q3

Blockbuster is certainly having its issues. With competition from cable's on demand platform, Netflix, Redbox, and other online sources, consumers feel less compelled to go to a big box store to rent movies. And so the financial news released from them should come at no surprise. "Blockbuster said today that its third-quarter loss widened from a year earlier, as the largest U.S. movie-rental chain closed stores, saw a 14% drop in same-store sales and conserved cash by cutting advertising costs in preparation to refinance debt." And while cost cutting can slow down the bleeding, the bigger issue will be how to get more consumers back into their stores to rent from them.

Among the ideas, kiosks similar to Redbox, that bring the movies to other retail outlets in an easier to touch strategy. Another is to emulate Netflix and its online approach to extend the value of the relationship with the consumer. All me too, follower strategies, that show little of Blockbusters leadership potential. Lastly, they will expand their inventory by renting and selling video games as well. Per the report, video games represents their next big opportunity.

So if I were Game Stop, it is time for a preemptive stop. Currently they offer used games in addition to new ones. How about expanding that model with rentals. Consumers already see Game Stop as the destination for video games; this new venture would add revenue to their coffers while taking more wind out of Blockbuster's sails (sales, too).

Greed Will Change the national Broadcaster and Affiliate Relationship

In these economically challenging times, our true intentions become clear. And in the TV world, parents eat their young! "ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox each are angling to get a cut of the compensation -- known as retransmission consent -- that cable and satellite companies pay the affiliates to carry their signals." Doesn't that national carriage enable you to charge more for your advertising. Do the local affiliates get a piece of the national buy, too? Perhaps the whole model needs to be reexamined given these changing times.

It seems we have gotten to a point where local affiliation is of lesser importance than being hyper local. Affiliates need to focus more on their own communities and less on the national programming. Heck with NBC pushing The Jay Leno Show, affiliates should be asking for compensation from NBC. Talk about hurting local news ratings at 11am.

So why shake up the model now? As ad dollars have moved from broadcast to cable, new revenue streams must be found. "Retransmission revenue isn't a huge piece of the broadcast pie, but it's a lucrative and growing one. SNL Kagan estimates total retransmission dollars at $739 million this year, but expects that to grow to $1.3 billion by 2012." Thus the desire to share in that pie. Could a revolt spell the beginning of the end of this national-local model, let's wait and see.

LinkedIn and Twitter link up - and Linkedin may have jumped the shark

According to reports, Twitter and Linked in have linked up enabling users to broadcast each others services on their respective sites. "Allen Blue, a co-founder of Twitter who is its vice president of product strategy, said LinkedIn members would be able to automatically post recent Tweets if they wanted." Perhaps good for Twitter as it adds more objective information, but does it jump the shark for Linked in? I have grown to like Linked in more and Twitter less; I find myself with less to post, but appreciate reading linked in posts of new connections made, groups joined, and updated news on their resume. I care much less what they ate for lunch or where they ate it. I'll let Twitter do that and not "check the box" to share the data on linked in. And I appreciate the same option NOT to read others' Tweets on my Linked in home page. Otherwise, Linked In will get too congested and stop working effectively for me. And it will have "Jumped The Shark".

Dish Files To Trademark 'TV Everywhere'

It's one thing to enable convergence of video across platforms, another thing to name it. Building a brand around the concept may simply be the first step. And with that in mind, Dish is quick to try and trademark the "TV Everywhere" banner. Will cable let go easily? "As outlined by Time Warner Inc. CEO Jeff Bewkes, for example, 'TV Everywhere' encompasses Web-based video services available only to pay-TV subscribers provided through cable, satellite or telco TV operators in cooperation with programmers. Dish representatives would not say whether the company is developing a service along those lines." That definition certainly goes beyond Dish's plan with Slingbox. Does Dish have a legal leg to stand on or is the definition already considered generic and not accessible to branding.

Obviously, there are plenty of other ways to brand the ability to watch TV programming across multiple non TV devices. Quick, get the marketer creative juices going. My suggestions: 1. TV Anywhere (too obvious); 2. TV2GO; 3. V2G; 4. GoTv; 5. TVWWW or TVWyW (TV What you Want, Where you want, When you Want). 6. TV On Demand; 7. TV Yourway

Love to hear your suggestions for cable to replace the TV Everywhere name with a brand they can own.

Comcast - NBCU; What Will Vivendi Do?

The acquisition of NBCU by Comcast continues to move closer as the two parties seemed to have agreed on valuing the deal at 30 billion dollars. Sounds like a lot of money, but for Vivendi, it would represent less than they hoped. "A $30 billion valuation would put Vivendi’s part at $6 billion, which would still be shy of the $6.3 billion it is said to think its share should be worth." Hasn't anyone told Vivendi that when their is a seller motivated deal, the seller tends to get less than they desire, just to get rid of their asset. Heck, it's real estate 101.

Will Vivendi take the deal? Does a Comcast-NBCU deal make sense? Would the FCC even let Comcast own the asset or would they have to quickly spin off the broadcast piece to a separate entity? For those that simply like putting together M&A deals, they must be in seventh heaven. For those on the sideline watching the outcome, sometimes deals are just bad and should be avoided. If Comcast just wants the cable networks, this deal certainly is a complicated way to get what you desire. Scripps just picked up Travel with little fanfare and other cable networks are out there to be plucked. Seems a lot of work for Bravo, USA, Sci Fi, Oxygen, and others.