Pages

Friday, October 5, 2012

Blockbuster Has No Future

When Dish Network purchased Blockbuster a year and a half ago, the thought was that they would be able to build up a rival streaming business to Netflix.  And despite Toys R Us now announcing their entry into the video streaming space, Dish has decided their is no future streaming business for Blockbuster.  "Dish no longer has plans to use Blockbuster as a nationwide video streaming or DVD-by-mail service, (CEO Charlie) Ergen said."  An interesting decision considering Coinstar and Verizon are now developing their own video streaming business.  What has changed for Dish?

While Ergen did not say what those future plans are, one has to wonder if the plans are simply to shut it down.  "The company has other plans for Blockbuster on which Ergen declined to comment. Dish has spent 'a lot of time' talking with cable networks about an Internet streaming service for live programming, although the service is probably still 'years away,' Ergen said. 'Worst case, we’ll take our money after having wasted some time, not much money, and life goes on,' Ergen said."  As relationships in general between Dish and cable networks have been less than warm, it seems more likely that the reality is closer to a shut down or sale of Blockbuster.

Overall, the streaming space seems already crowded with platforms selling the same video libraries - Apple, Netflix, Amazon, Wal-Mart, Toys R Us, Coinstar/Verizon, etc.  While Blockbuster has a brand value, it may also suffer from being a brick and mortar experience with dvd rentals and not an online identity.  And the struggle of changing its value proposition from store front to a digital business is what ultimately hurt Blockbuster's chances for success.

Thursday, October 4, 2012

Toys R Us Continues Its Push Into Digital

The video streaming business just got more crowded with the arrival of a brand new service from Toys R Us (TRU).  On the  heels of its announcement of its own tablet, TRU will be streaming television and movies under a rental model.  " The site will be powered by Rovi (ROVI)Corp, a digital entertainment technology company." Future plans include apps for Apple and Android devices, as well as their own Tabeo tablet.

Unfortunately, it is a very crowded field already dominated by iTunes, Amazon, and Netflix, with Wal-Mart's Vudu pushing its service as well.  If the titles being offered are all the same, won't customers simply be motivated to seek the lowest priced streaming service.  TRU must also contend with building a video streaming library of comparable size as its competition.  It is hard to imagine that customers will want to use too many different platforms to serve their video consumption strategies.  Netflix and Amazon have built an all you can eat buffet of videos while Apple likes to sell a la carte.  How TRU differentiates its service is crucial to gaining a measurable market share.

Wednesday, October 3, 2012

Motorola Drops Patent Suit Against Apple

The news that Google's Motorola unit was dropping its suit against Apple must be somewhat attributable from Sun Tzu's, "The Art of War". There are times to attack and there are times to withdraw.  And Google must have assessed their chances and given the recent ruling against Samsung, determined that their best move was to retreat.  "In a brief filing with the International Trade Commission on Monday, Motorola Mobility said it was dropping without prejudice a complaint that Apple had infringed on seven Motorola patents."  And so another patent fight with Apple is over and points again to an Apple victory.

Of course The Art of War also says  that strategies continue to change and a withdrawal one day may only lead to a direct confrontation in other ways.  And in a competitive environment, there are differences in a battle victory and the entire war.  Competition between Google and Apple does not end with this patent fight; the war is still on.

Tuesday, October 2, 2012

What Makes A Popular TV Show

The new TV season is here and networks are pushing their promotional blitz touting the most watched, funniest, best show on TV.  And TV execs scour the ratings the day after their show airs to see just how popular and successful their show is.  For some, it may determine whether the show gets picked up for the year or cancelled after only a few episodes.  TV execs have become less and less patient to let a show find its legs and its audience.  Some shows get lucky; Seinfeld really took till its third season to become a hit.  It was the pushing of certain execs that kept it going when it would have been too easy to cancel.

Today, those same execs might want to practice more patience because it is not just ho many are watching their show live, but also how many are watching their show on a delayed basis.  " The biggest takeaway in the television business from the season’s first week is that first impressions of a new show’s success may mean next to nothing now. With about 20 percent of viewers watching episodes of network series on a delayed basis, the initial ratings have to be seasoned with much larger quantities of salt."  I count myself among those 20% and I suspect that number is higher.  Between DVR and on demand, there are many shows I want to watch.  Two of them are on my DVR and are almost a week old, but I intend to record them and get to them even if I fall two or even three weeks behind.

The pleasure of watching shows on my schedule and not the networks is appealing, both because I can watch when it is most convenient to me and that I can watch and fast forward through the commercials.  In fact, it is becoming rarer for me to watch live shows, except for sporting events and award shows.  And so networks need to take total viewing into consideration, not just live, not just 3 days delayed, but in much longer  periods than even 7 days.  Add to that the online and on demand viewing of previous seasons and shows can actually start to demonstrate a growing audience appeal.  Heck I still need to watch the first season of Homeland to catch up to this season's story.


Monday, October 1, 2012

When Will We No Longer Need To Carry Credit Cards

The latest Samsung smartphone commercial shows two people sharing a playlist, not songs, just a playlist.  Not as cool as it should be.  So when will a commercial show a person bumping phones with a store register to authorize a sale?  Now that would be pretty cool.  But we haven't gotten there yet.

Certainly, we are leaning that way and the discussion of mobile payment is a first step.  But most of the apps being discussed still involve a piece of plastic being swiped by a device.  Whether a credit card reader at a store or a device on a smartphone, a physical swipe is still a requirement.  For small businesses and individuals, an app like Square certainly provides a cheaper rate to process than dealing with credit card companies directly.  That rate must certainly rise or it will undoubtedly cause bigger merchandisers to complain about paying more more transaction, despite the large amount of business they deliver.

Can we find ourselves one day leaving our plastic credit cards in a drawer and not in our wallet?  The latest iteration of the iPhone decided not to add an NFC to the mix.  For Apple, it sees that the world is not yet ready for such interaction.  But it is heading that way.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Voom And Dish Head To Court

According to the news, the trial between Echostar and Voom is about to go to court.  Voom, the hi definition satellite service created by Cablevision, struggled to find viewership at a time when hi def TVs were just arriving to the consumer.  Cable networks were reluctant to build out an HD version of their channels till their was enough of a market interest.  Voom was to capture the early adopter with original HD channels across the main genres of news, music, movies, and sports.  And Echostar came on board to offer the Voom service to their consumers.  Non Dish customers could find check out Voom at Sears stores and online.  But Voom failed to find an audience and shortly thereafter, cable networks began to offer their channels in HD.  These entrenched cable brands were of more interest to consumers and Voom struggled to expand.

Ultimately, Dish and Cablevision had a falling out and Dish chose to drop the Voom service.  It has led to a protracted legal battle.  Will a trial occur or will a settlement be reached?  Will the networks of AMC (AMC, WE, IFC, Sundance) come back on Dish or will their banishment remain?  We can only watch and wait.

Dish Network Becoming An IPTV Distributor?

Dish Network may be feeling a bit stifled being a satellite cable provider.  With a world turning quickly to the web, Dish seems ready to build out its own web distribution platform of cable networks to bundle to consumers.  Among those networks that Dish is negotiating with include Viacom's channels, MTV, VH1, and others, Scripps Networks, with Food and HGTV, and Univision.  "The companies would offer an online product known as an over-the-top service, charging a lower price for a smaller bundle of channels viewable on a computer or tablet. Dish Network Corp’s service would change the dynamics of the pay-television business, breaking up the bundles that force customers to pay for channels they don’t watch. Dish’s service would change the dynamics of the pay- television business, breaking up the bundles that force customers to pay for channels they don’t watch."  For those with specific viewing interests, a smaller bundle could prove economically preferable to a large number of consumers.

Certainly, the challenge for the cable programmer is the fee that they receive under this service.  As a sub leaves a cable operator for this new service, the network loses that revenue from the left hand only to get it back in the right.  The equation works when the switch provides an incremental increase in a per sub rate; it does not, if the sub fee switch leads to a lower amount.  As license fees vary by operator for a cable service, it may be win with a major cable operator like Comcast, but a loss against an independent cable operator.

As a business, it seems a win for Dish who can expand its reach to multiple web accessing devices and expand beyond a satellite business.  It may also help drive their sales of their Blockbuster streaming service. At the same time, it will open the eyes of the major cable operators to also build their own versions of an IPTV business.  At that point, it could drive competition among cable operators.  Where once they were separated by the communities their franchise license served; a web based service lacks any geographic boundary.  Cable programming services could be offered by Comcast in a Time Warner market and vice versa.  In essence, Dish may just be opening a Pandora's Box.

Thursday, September 27, 2012

TiVo Gains On Cable Boxes, Declines On Standalone

The future of TiVo cannot rest solely on winning legal fights; rather, it must survive on subscriber growth.  And it seems, that TiVo is doing well on both counts.  With the signing of Mediacom, TiVo now has access to their million video customer base to rollout TiVo DVR boxes starting next year.  More importantly, TiVo saw growth in its most recent quarter.  "For the quarter ended July 31, TiVo added 230,000 net subscribers. It was the company's fourth consecutive quarter of positive subscriber growth, again driven by gains at Virgin Media, which surpassed 1 million TiVo subscribers in July. TiVo-owned subscribers declined by 23,000, to 1.06 million, while operator subs increased 253,000, to 1.66 million."  But as the figures show, the future is aligning with cable operators, not working around them.  The addition of Mediacom is a good start, a deal with Verizon FIOS is better.

Ultimately, the future for TiVo is to get a better partnership with both Comcast Cable and Time Warner Cable.  Together, those  two cable operators wield the largest control.  Getting their agreement to rollout TiVo on their cable boxes will be the icing on the cake for TiVo.

Web Viewing On TV Most Popular - Really?

When I saw this article in All Things D, I thought I was reading an article from 2015 and not 2012.  That viewers are watching more and more web video is not to be questioned; but, if you were to guess which device was most popular, you would never guess that TV leads all devices for web video viewing.  "Consumer-tracking service NPD says TV sets are now the most popular way to watch streaming video.
NPD says 45 percent of consumers report that TV is now their primary Web video screen, up from 33 percent last year."  According to the chart, TV ranks first while computer is farther behind.



Unfortunately, I find this research hard to believe.  Not that the connected TV will inevitably be the choice of viewing, but that it already surpasses mobile devices.  And as I look at the chart, I ask, where are smartphones and iPods? And tablets at 1% is a number that makes me scratch my head too.  In my house, I have both an Xbox and a connected blu ray, but they are still used for gaming and dvds, not web video viewing.

And here is another questionable stat, "NPD says the most popular service for viewing Web content on TV is Netflix, with 40 percent of connected TV watchers using the service."  I don't doubt that Netflix  rules the roost, I simply question the research as to the device that is being used to watch these movies.  So I take the research as it is given and I wait to hear from other researchers to validate or disprove this study.