The new TV season is here and networks are pushing their promotional blitz touting the most watched, funniest, best show on TV. And TV execs scour the ratings the day after their show airs to see just how popular and successful their show is. For some, it may determine whether the show gets picked up for the year or cancelled after only a few episodes. TV execs have become less and less patient to let a show find its legs and its audience. Some shows get lucky; Seinfeld really took till its third season to become a hit. It was the pushing of certain execs that kept it going when it would have been too easy to cancel.
Today, those same execs might want to practice more patience because it is not just ho many are watching their show live, but also how many are watching their show on a delayed basis. " The biggest takeaway in the television business from the season’s first week is that first impressions of a new show’s success may mean next to nothing now. With about 20 percent of viewers watching episodes of network series on a delayed basis, the initial ratings have to be seasoned with much larger quantities of salt." I count myself among those 20% and I suspect that number is higher. Between DVR and on demand, there are many shows I want to watch. Two of them are on my DVR and are almost a week old, but I intend to record them and get to them even if I fall two or even three weeks behind.
The pleasure of watching shows on my schedule and not the networks is appealing, both because I can watch when it is most convenient to me and that I can watch and fast forward through the commercials. In fact, it is becoming rarer for me to watch live shows, except for sporting events and award shows. And so networks need to take total viewing into consideration, not just live, not just 3 days delayed, but in much longer periods than even 7 days. Add to that the online and on demand viewing of previous seasons and shows can actually start to demonstrate a growing audience appeal. Heck I still need to watch the first season of Homeland to catch up to this season's story.
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Monday, October 1, 2012
When Will We No Longer Need To Carry Credit Cards
The latest Samsung smartphone commercial shows two people sharing a playlist, not songs, just a playlist. Not as cool as it should be. So when will a commercial show a person bumping phones with a store register to authorize a sale? Now that would be pretty cool. But we haven't gotten there yet.
Certainly, we are leaning that way and the discussion of mobile payment is a first step. But most of the apps being discussed still involve a piece of plastic being swiped by a device. Whether a credit card reader at a store or a device on a smartphone, a physical swipe is still a requirement. For small businesses and individuals, an app like Square certainly provides a cheaper rate to process than dealing with credit card companies directly. That rate must certainly rise or it will undoubtedly cause bigger merchandisers to complain about paying more more transaction, despite the large amount of business they deliver.
Can we find ourselves one day leaving our plastic credit cards in a drawer and not in our wallet? The latest iteration of the iPhone decided not to add an NFC to the mix. For Apple, it sees that the world is not yet ready for such interaction. But it is heading that way.
Certainly, we are leaning that way and the discussion of mobile payment is a first step. But most of the apps being discussed still involve a piece of plastic being swiped by a device. Whether a credit card reader at a store or a device on a smartphone, a physical swipe is still a requirement. For small businesses and individuals, an app like Square certainly provides a cheaper rate to process than dealing with credit card companies directly. That rate must certainly rise or it will undoubtedly cause bigger merchandisers to complain about paying more more transaction, despite the large amount of business they deliver.
Can we find ourselves one day leaving our plastic credit cards in a drawer and not in our wallet? The latest iteration of the iPhone decided not to add an NFC to the mix. For Apple, it sees that the world is not yet ready for such interaction. But it is heading that way.
Friday, September 28, 2012
Voom And Dish Head To Court
According to the news, the trial between Echostar and Voom is about to go to court. Voom, the hi definition satellite service created by Cablevision, struggled to find viewership at a time when hi def TVs were just arriving to the consumer. Cable networks were reluctant to build out an HD version of their channels till their was enough of a market interest. Voom was to capture the early adopter with original HD channels across the main genres of news, music, movies, and sports. And Echostar came on board to offer the Voom service to their consumers. Non Dish customers could find check out Voom at Sears stores and online. But Voom failed to find an audience and shortly thereafter, cable networks began to offer their channels in HD. These entrenched cable brands were of more interest to consumers and Voom struggled to expand.
Ultimately, Dish and Cablevision had a falling out and Dish chose to drop the Voom service. It has led to a protracted legal battle. Will a trial occur or will a settlement be reached? Will the networks of AMC (AMC, WE, IFC, Sundance) come back on Dish or will their banishment remain? We can only watch and wait.
Ultimately, Dish and Cablevision had a falling out and Dish chose to drop the Voom service. It has led to a protracted legal battle. Will a trial occur or will a settlement be reached? Will the networks of AMC (AMC, WE, IFC, Sundance) come back on Dish or will their banishment remain? We can only watch and wait.
Dish Network Becoming An IPTV Distributor?
Dish Network may be feeling a bit stifled being a satellite cable provider. With a world turning quickly to the web, Dish seems ready to build out its own web distribution platform of cable networks to bundle to consumers. Among those networks that Dish is negotiating with include Viacom's channels, MTV, VH1, and others, Scripps Networks, with Food and HGTV, and Univision. "The companies would offer an online product known as an over-the-top service, charging a lower price for a smaller bundle of channels viewable on a computer or tablet. Dish Network Corp’s service would change the dynamics of the pay-television business, breaking up the bundles that force customers to pay for channels they don’t watch. Dish’s service would change the dynamics of the pay- television business, breaking up the bundles that force customers to pay for channels they don’t watch." For those with specific viewing interests, a smaller bundle could prove economically preferable to a large number of consumers.
Certainly, the challenge for the cable programmer is the fee that they receive under this service. As a sub leaves a cable operator for this new service, the network loses that revenue from the left hand only to get it back in the right. The equation works when the switch provides an incremental increase in a per sub rate; it does not, if the sub fee switch leads to a lower amount. As license fees vary by operator for a cable service, it may be win with a major cable operator like Comcast, but a loss against an independent cable operator.
As a business, it seems a win for Dish who can expand its reach to multiple web accessing devices and expand beyond a satellite business. It may also help drive their sales of their Blockbuster streaming service. At the same time, it will open the eyes of the major cable operators to also build their own versions of an IPTV business. At that point, it could drive competition among cable operators. Where once they were separated by the communities their franchise license served; a web based service lacks any geographic boundary. Cable programming services could be offered by Comcast in a Time Warner market and vice versa. In essence, Dish may just be opening a Pandora's Box.
Certainly, the challenge for the cable programmer is the fee that they receive under this service. As a sub leaves a cable operator for this new service, the network loses that revenue from the left hand only to get it back in the right. The equation works when the switch provides an incremental increase in a per sub rate; it does not, if the sub fee switch leads to a lower amount. As license fees vary by operator for a cable service, it may be win with a major cable operator like Comcast, but a loss against an independent cable operator.
As a business, it seems a win for Dish who can expand its reach to multiple web accessing devices and expand beyond a satellite business. It may also help drive their sales of their Blockbuster streaming service. At the same time, it will open the eyes of the major cable operators to also build their own versions of an IPTV business. At that point, it could drive competition among cable operators. Where once they were separated by the communities their franchise license served; a web based service lacks any geographic boundary. Cable programming services could be offered by Comcast in a Time Warner market and vice versa. In essence, Dish may just be opening a Pandora's Box.
Thursday, September 27, 2012
TiVo Gains On Cable Boxes, Declines On Standalone
The future of TiVo cannot rest solely on winning legal fights; rather, it must survive on subscriber growth. And it seems, that TiVo is doing well on both counts. With the signing of Mediacom, TiVo now has access to their million video customer base to rollout TiVo DVR boxes starting next year. More importantly, TiVo saw growth in its most recent quarter. "For the quarter ended July 31, TiVo added 230,000 net subscribers. It was the company's fourth consecutive quarter of positive subscriber growth, again driven by gains at Virgin Media, which surpassed 1 million TiVo subscribers in July. TiVo-owned subscribers declined by 23,000, to 1.06 million, while operator subs increased 253,000, to 1.66 million." But as the figures show, the future is aligning with cable operators, not working around them. The addition of Mediacom is a good start, a deal with Verizon FIOS is better.
Ultimately, the future for TiVo is to get a better partnership with both Comcast Cable and Time Warner Cable. Together, those two cable operators wield the largest control. Getting their agreement to rollout TiVo on their cable boxes will be the icing on the cake for TiVo.
Ultimately, the future for TiVo is to get a better partnership with both Comcast Cable and Time Warner Cable. Together, those two cable operators wield the largest control. Getting their agreement to rollout TiVo on their cable boxes will be the icing on the cake for TiVo.
Web Viewing On TV Most Popular - Really?
When I saw this article in All Things D, I thought I was reading an article from 2015 and not 2012. That viewers are watching more and more web video is not to be questioned; but, if you were to guess which device was most popular, you would never guess that TV leads all devices for web video viewing. "Consumer-tracking service NPD says TV sets are now the most popular way to watch streaming video.
NPD says 45 percent of consumers report that TV is now their primary Web video screen, up from 33 percent last year." According to the chart, TV ranks first while computer is farther behind.
Unfortunately, I find this research hard to believe. Not that the connected TV will inevitably be the choice of viewing, but that it already surpasses mobile devices. And as I look at the chart, I ask, where are smartphones and iPods? And tablets at 1% is a number that makes me scratch my head too. In my house, I have both an Xbox and a connected blu ray, but they are still used for gaming and dvds, not web video viewing.
And here is another questionable stat, "NPD says the most popular service for viewing Web content on TV is Netflix, with 40 percent of connected TV watchers using the service." I don't doubt that Netflix rules the roost, I simply question the research as to the device that is being used to watch these movies. So I take the research as it is given and I wait to hear from other researchers to validate or disprove this study.
NPD says 45 percent of consumers report that TV is now their primary Web video screen, up from 33 percent last year." According to the chart, TV ranks first while computer is farther behind.
Unfortunately, I find this research hard to believe. Not that the connected TV will inevitably be the choice of viewing, but that it already surpasses mobile devices. And as I look at the chart, I ask, where are smartphones and iPods? And tablets at 1% is a number that makes me scratch my head too. In my house, I have both an Xbox and a connected blu ray, but they are still used for gaming and dvds, not web video viewing.
And here is another questionable stat, "NPD says the most popular service for viewing Web content on TV is Netflix, with 40 percent of connected TV watchers using the service." I don't doubt that Netflix rules the roost, I simply question the research as to the device that is being used to watch these movies. So I take the research as it is given and I wait to hear from other researchers to validate or disprove this study.
Tuesday, September 25, 2012
TiVo Gains From Lawsuits But What About Subs
TiVo is guaranteeing itself a nice annual revenue stream, but it seems to be coming from lawsuit wins and settlements. The Dish victory is well known and now a settlement from Verizon keeps their momentum of protecting their intellectual license alive. Remaining lawsuits with Time Warner Cable, Google, and Cisco may feel their best course of action will also be to settle rather than fight.
But what about the TiVo DVR product? What does subscriber growth look like? The product is great, but without a growing base, a long term business it is not. It is now time to hear more about the cable deals and how TiVo will be sold and marketed to cable customers. When will Comcast push out a TiVo DVR? Like a tree falling in the forest, it is time to hear the fall. TiVo is a great product that too many people don't know what they are missing.
But what about the TiVo DVR product? What does subscriber growth look like? The product is great, but without a growing base, a long term business it is not. It is now time to hear more about the cable deals and how TiVo will be sold and marketed to cable customers. When will Comcast push out a TiVo DVR? Like a tree falling in the forest, it is time to hear the fall. TiVo is a great product that too many people don't know what they are missing.
Friday, September 21, 2012
Samsung Galaxy v Apple iPhone
My friend shared with me this video. When it comes to smartphones, there are two camps, Apple and everyone else. With the release today of the iPhone 5, Samsung thought to have a little fun.
Still having lost the lawsuit, owing Apple a ton of money, and watching Apple use Samsung less as its supplier, the question really will be, who has the last laugh.
Still having lost the lawsuit, owing Apple a ton of money, and watching Apple use Samsung less as its supplier, the question really will be, who has the last laugh.
Retailers Feeling Threatened By Amazon
Online retailing is real and the biggest threat to brick and mortar stores is the ability to get the same products online and in some cases cheaper. Worse still, consumers can use box stores to browse while engaging in comparative pricing online. And the biggest threat certainly comes from the leader of online retail, Amazon.
So it is not surprising that stores like Wal-Mart and Target won't sell the Amazon Kindle line of products, it is that they had added their products in the first place. "Amazon has already tested physical stores for other goods. Now, with two large chains no longer selling Kindle, speculation has grown that the dominant online retailer could open its stores where shoppers could try out and buy Kindles." Certainly, Wal-Mart and Target, Best Buy and others have extended into the online space to compete with Amazon; it just seems odd that Amazon would consider building out a physical retail presence to match these big box stores. It seems to me that Amazon's strength is that they don't have stores with high rents and other fixed expenses to lower their profit margin. Wouldn't Amazon be better served investing further in the distribution side of the business, perhaps taking an ownership stake in UPS or Fed Ex, and thus further streamline the process of moving product from warehouse to home.
Why Wal-Mart and Target thought carrying the Kindle was a good idea in the first place will always be questioned. They knew from the outset where Amazon was coming from. For Amazon, the question may be that the loss of these retail partners impact their Kindle business, but I doubt it. Still if Amazon needs to become a retailer, maybe a Barnes & Noble or Toys R Us buyout is an opportunity for them.
So it is not surprising that stores like Wal-Mart and Target won't sell the Amazon Kindle line of products, it is that they had added their products in the first place. "Amazon has already tested physical stores for other goods. Now, with two large chains no longer selling Kindle, speculation has grown that the dominant online retailer could open its stores where shoppers could try out and buy Kindles." Certainly, Wal-Mart and Target, Best Buy and others have extended into the online space to compete with Amazon; it just seems odd that Amazon would consider building out a physical retail presence to match these big box stores. It seems to me that Amazon's strength is that they don't have stores with high rents and other fixed expenses to lower their profit margin. Wouldn't Amazon be better served investing further in the distribution side of the business, perhaps taking an ownership stake in UPS or Fed Ex, and thus further streamline the process of moving product from warehouse to home.
Why Wal-Mart and Target thought carrying the Kindle was a good idea in the first place will always be questioned. They knew from the outset where Amazon was coming from. For Amazon, the question may be that the loss of these retail partners impact their Kindle business, but I doubt it. Still if Amazon needs to become a retailer, maybe a Barnes & Noble or Toys R Us buyout is an opportunity for them.
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