Greed Will Change the national Broadcaster and Affiliate Relationship

In these economically challenging times, our true intentions become clear. And in the TV world, parents eat their young! "ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox each are angling to get a cut of the compensation -- known as retransmission consent -- that cable and satellite companies pay the affiliates to carry their signals." Doesn't that national carriage enable you to charge more for your advertising. Do the local affiliates get a piece of the national buy, too? Perhaps the whole model needs to be reexamined given these changing times.

It seems we have gotten to a point where local affiliation is of lesser importance than being hyper local. Affiliates need to focus more on their own communities and less on the national programming. Heck with NBC pushing The Jay Leno Show, affiliates should be asking for compensation from NBC. Talk about hurting local news ratings at 11am.

So why shake up the model now? As ad dollars have moved from broadcast to cable, new revenue streams must be found. "Retransmission revenue isn't a huge piece of the broadcast pie, but it's a lucrative and growing one. SNL Kagan estimates total retransmission dollars at $739 million this year, but expects that to grow to $1.3 billion by 2012." Thus the desire to share in that pie. Could a revolt spell the beginning of the end of this national-local model, let's wait and see.

LinkedIn and Twitter link up - and Linkedin may have jumped the shark

According to reports, Twitter and Linked in have linked up enabling users to broadcast each others services on their respective sites. "Allen Blue, a co-founder of Twitter who is its vice president of product strategy, said LinkedIn members would be able to automatically post recent Tweets if they wanted." Perhaps good for Twitter as it adds more objective information, but does it jump the shark for Linked in? I have grown to like Linked in more and Twitter less; I find myself with less to post, but appreciate reading linked in posts of new connections made, groups joined, and updated news on their resume. I care much less what they ate for lunch or where they ate it. I'll let Twitter do that and not "check the box" to share the data on linked in. And I appreciate the same option NOT to read others' Tweets on my Linked in home page. Otherwise, Linked In will get too congested and stop working effectively for me. And it will have "Jumped The Shark".

Dish Files To Trademark 'TV Everywhere'

It's one thing to enable convergence of video across platforms, another thing to name it. Building a brand around the concept may simply be the first step. And with that in mind, Dish is quick to try and trademark the "TV Everywhere" banner. Will cable let go easily? "As outlined by Time Warner Inc. CEO Jeff Bewkes, for example, 'TV Everywhere' encompasses Web-based video services available only to pay-TV subscribers provided through cable, satellite or telco TV operators in cooperation with programmers. Dish representatives would not say whether the company is developing a service along those lines." That definition certainly goes beyond Dish's plan with Slingbox. Does Dish have a legal leg to stand on or is the definition already considered generic and not accessible to branding.

Obviously, there are plenty of other ways to brand the ability to watch TV programming across multiple non TV devices. Quick, get the marketer creative juices going. My suggestions: 1. TV Anywhere (too obvious); 2. TV2GO; 3. V2G; 4. GoTv; 5. TVWWW or TVWyW (TV What you Want, Where you want, When you Want). 6. TV On Demand; 7. TV Yourway

Love to hear your suggestions for cable to replace the TV Everywhere name with a brand they can own.

Comcast - NBCU; What Will Vivendi Do?

The acquisition of NBCU by Comcast continues to move closer as the two parties seemed to have agreed on valuing the deal at 30 billion dollars. Sounds like a lot of money, but for Vivendi, it would represent less than they hoped. "A $30 billion valuation would put Vivendi’s part at $6 billion, which would still be shy of the $6.3 billion it is said to think its share should be worth." Hasn't anyone told Vivendi that when their is a seller motivated deal, the seller tends to get less than they desire, just to get rid of their asset. Heck, it's real estate 101.

Will Vivendi take the deal? Does a Comcast-NBCU deal make sense? Would the FCC even let Comcast own the asset or would they have to quickly spin off the broadcast piece to a separate entity? For those that simply like putting together M&A deals, they must be in seventh heaven. For those on the sideline watching the outcome, sometimes deals are just bad and should be avoided. If Comcast just wants the cable networks, this deal certainly is a complicated way to get what you desire. Scripps just picked up Travel with little fanfare and other cable networks are out there to be plucked. Seems a lot of work for Bravo, USA, Sci Fi, Oxygen, and others.

How Ya Doin Sirius

The economy is slowing improving, some car dealers are finally showing a little profit, and Sirius is still around. In fact, thanks to John Malone's financial support, Sirius remains an independent company. Despite posting a net loss in the third quarter, revenue grew 3 percent for them. Not bad for a company who's stock trades for just over 2 bits.

So what does the future hold? Hopefully a company that has reined in its costs and grown revenue. One big expense still around is Howard Stern's hefty contract. But that contract ends next month and both Howard and Sirius have a decision to make. Re-sign Howard or let him go back to terrestrial radio. Does Sirius depend on Howard anymore; I dunno. I suspect that those that ordered Sirius because of Howard have found more value that would keep them customers. Howard doesn't seem to be the game changer he once was. My expectation is that Mel Karmazin will try to sign him for pennies and when Howard refuses will say that at least he made him an offer. At the end of the day, Howard will come back to terrestrial radio and the wrath of the FCC.

And for Sirius, lower costs, perhaps more non car subscribers via iPhone and other mobile devices, and a buyout by Liberty Media and Direct TV.

Cable Revenue Up, Basic Sub Growth Down

Cablevision recently announced third quarter results and the headline was that profits had tripled. In fact, revenue jumped 5.3%. Comcast is telling a similar story as their revenue rose 3 percent. The growth sectors are digital penetration, high speed connects, and triple play growth with wireline phone business.

But inside the numbers there may be a different story to tell. Digital cable growth, in my estimation, is due to the recapture of bandwidth as cable customers "force" consumers to upgrade to digital and take a digital box in order to watch networks that were once on the basic tier. Revenue growth is coming from these upsells as well as the profit margin attached to phone and broadband connects.

BUT, the troubling point for cable is in this one piece of information. For Cablevision, basic video subscribers fell 1.5% from a year earlier. For Comcast, a similar story; in the third quarter, they lost 132,000 basic cable subscribers. At some point, you can't keep selling more services to less customers!! As consumers begin to treat cable, high speed, and phone as a commodity and see little differentiation between competitors, the lower priced service will win. Fios and AT&T continue to gain basic subs as cable drops them. As cable basic sub loss grows, these triple play customers will also leave and revenue and profit will both decline.

And when will it get problematic; just wait till the next rate increase comes into customers' hands. That notice will be the impetus to compare rates and think about changing providers. Revenue growth may be growing now but don't lose sight of your basic cable base. You got to have them as customers first before you can upsell them!

VOD or Live TV On Your Cell Phone

While it is nice to read that Apple is taking its iTune application one step further, enabling an all you can watch mentality for a subscription price. And for those consuming lots of on demand content on their iPhones and iPods, it may be a more economical model. "iTunes users can already buy individual movies and episodes of shows, but the monthly subscription-fee strategy takes square aim at cable companies, because subscribers wouldn't need them to deliver their favorite programs in bulk." Frankly, I don't see this as much of a competitive threat. I don't see these mobile devices as replacement to televisions.

What does appeal to me is the ability to augment your cable viewing experience with mobile. I recently found myself on a Sunday afternoon away from watching NFL football at home; instead, I was watching my son's little league game. Next to me at the field, a friend had his blackberry on, watching a live feed of the Giant-Eagles game. I immediately wished I had the same service. Direct TV offers this mobile connection; slingbox does as well. Does cable have anything to fear from iTunes - no; but they do need to bring their TV Everywhere concept into the 21st century and use a slingbox like approach to bring your cable subscription to your other platforms. The distributor that does the better job of enabling and marketing that application will see their market share rise.

Comcast to Buy Cable Nets and Sell Rest of NBC?

Everything that NBC Universal has built up, the acquisition of USA and Sci Fi, then Bravo, Oxygen, and most recently The Weather Channel, could soon come apart. With a sale to Comcast, the only thing of value to Comcast are the cable nets, less so the broadcast network and its owned and operated stations. "One Wall Street player confirmed market rumors that bankers have already descended on the MSO's Philadelphia headquarters to work with management on selling the NBC Network and stations to a third party. Comcast had no immediate comment on that still-hypothetical possibility."

Is this what GE wants, will this provide Vivendi with the value they want for their investment? It seems Comcast knows exactly what they want and are not afraid to dismantle the infrastructure to get to their prize. It is a far more strategic plan than acquiring the whole thing. Will Universal and the theme parks go as well? I would expect so.

So who might want a broadcast network without cable networks to balance it out. Today the profit is in cable not broadcast. And with the current programming on NBC in prime time (i.e. The Jay Leno Show), this fourth placed network has less value to offer. Who would want this dog without and an affiliate network that has become less viable when the web can be much more hyper local. Is this the future for NBC Universal and who could possible want to buy this shell of an asset?

Tonight on TV

Cable networks were created to bring niche interests to the masses and compete with the general programming of broadcasters. But the cable landscape has changed and cable networks are no longer acting like niches but behaving like broadcast networks. Case in point, tonight's line-up:

A&E - should be called CBS 2 with reruns of Criminal Mind and CSI: Miami
TV Land - once the home of classic TV shows is featuring a movie, "Private Benjamin"
Bravo - once culture TV presents Americas Next Top Model and a movie "Sleepless in Seattle" - that's culture?!
MTV - so long music videos, we get "Scream 3"
Travel - ahhh travel. So where to tonight - "Ghost Adventures Live!" Ticket for one, please.

And so it goes. Cable networks continue to broaden their programming so that they begin to lose their individual identity. Was that show on Food Network or TLC, AMC or TNT? So hard to say, they all start looking alike. So goodbye to networks, with VOD, simply watch the show you enjoy, regardless of where it may have first appeared.