Are You Ready For The Big Game?

Of course that game is this weekends' Super Bowl and while a good bit of the action will be on the field, more seems to be riding off the field.  With skyhigh advertising costs to appear on the screen, big budgets to produce the most creative eyecatching mini-epics, and the pr to create in advance the social buzz, the game itself almost becomes an afterthought. 

The telecast is a spectacle from pre-game to post.  Where fashion watchers hype the red carpet before each and every award show, sports hypes the emotion, tension, and intrigue to raise our interest in the game.  And with the advertising in it, the Super Bowl attracts fans and non fans alike, giving us all something to watch and talk about.  In fact, it is a hard time to watch alone.  If not with friends at a party, or at a bar or restaurant, at least with social media to share the hype. 

And even cord cutters can watch the game.  While you may not have a cable or broadcast antenna, you can still find online streams to catch the action.  And if not, another reason to leave your front door and immerse yourself in the frenzy.  Whether your interest is in the football game itself, the ads, the social camaraderie, or all of the above, it is a spectacle to enjoy.  So, are you ready for the big game?  I know I am. 

Google Decides To Sell its Moto

It looks like Google has second guessed itself.  When it bought Motorola Mobility a couple years ago for $12.5 billion dollars, their thought must have been to create a competitive phone product to compete with Apple.  But also selling its Android operating software to other phone companies, the idea of its own phone brand created many conflicts of interest.  So Google has chosen to reverse its course, selling Motorola Mobility to Lenova for a measly $2.9 billion dollars.  A little over a year ago, Google sold the Motorola Mobility division that makes the cable boxes to Arris for about $2 billion dollars.  So adding that gain, it is almost an $8 billion dollar loss in only 2 years, although likely a drop in the bucket for Google. 

Obviously Google continues to put more effort into its other activities, including the growth plans for Google Glass.  But the decision to sell the phone hardware business clearly demonstrates a different direction for Google, not as a phone manufacturer, but as the brains behind every other phone maker.  A small misstep for Google that they recognized quickly and can now keep moving forward. 

Comcast and U-Verse Ask, What Cord-Cutting?

Has Comcast and AT&T U-Verse discovered the secret sauce to slowing down or perhaps even reversing cord cutting?  Well in each of their quarterly financials, both have reported increases in video subscriptions.  So while Time Warner Cable has lost customers, these two have added them.  Comcast reported an net add of over 40,000 video subscribers on the quarter, while "AT&T added 194,000 U-verse TV subs in the fourth quarter and 924,000 for all of 2013, extending its TV total to 5.5 million."  That is a huge annual increase.

As both Comcast and TWC are wired franchises that don't overlap, Comcast could not directly gain from Time Warner Cable's misfortune, but AT&T most likely did.  Content drop and poor service are certainly to blame.  For Comcast, Brian Roberts has credited the investment in the infrastructure.  How that encourages new customers to come in, I don't know, but perhaps it most likely kept current customers from deserting. 

AT&T faces issue of customers dropping wired telephone service, losing more than 800,000 telephone customers in the quarter.  While some switched to U-Verse, other simply left.  But AT&T also added over 800,000 wireless customers.  Having a video, broadband, and wireless platform should certainly continue to help AT&T to grow total subscribers. 

Are we seeing the making of a trend and is cord cutting slowing down or is this a blip that will continue to occur as cable companies annually raise their monthly cable subscription fees? Will a Supreme Court ruling later in the year over the Aereo business model affect them or is the infrastructure so strong that it can offer added value that keeps customers from switching off their cable subscription?  For now at least, Comcast and AT&T feel they are beating back the cord cutting phenomenon. 

Live From ..., Ratings Are Up

The savior of linear television, besides folks who simply like to watch what ever is on the tube, continues to be Live Television.  It causes appointment TV where viewers plan their time to be near the TV set to watch.  And the success of live TV can be seen as ratings continue to rise for spectaculars like The Sound of Music to Football games and to last Sunday's Grammy Awards program.  "The Grammy Awards telecast remains second only to the Academy Awards in terms of popularity, with Sunday’s show on CBS drawing a big 28.51 million viewers — up slightly from last year’s 28.38 million and the second largest audience in the last 21 years."

No doubt, I would expect more and more networks to augment their line-ups with special event live shows.  NBC has tried it already with live showing of 30 Rock and Fox has had success with American Idol.  Keeping viewers tuned to the channel also benefits the networks advertising abilities.  More viewers, more dollars charged, more revenue coming in.  But it is clear that TV needs more live programming also to keep cord cutters from growing more rapidly. 

Once networks build out an authenticated TV Everywhere experience that lets their networks get enjoyed on every screen, ratings growth could skyrocket.  So congrats on the ratings success; Live television continues to demonstrate the power that linear networks bring to the public. 

ESPN Driving Digital Content To Thwart Cord Cutting

Today's Wall Street Journal offers an in-depth piece on ESPN's strategic approach to the digital landscape.  Cutting to the chase, they recognized that cable revenue was at stake with the rise of streaming video on the web.  And no matter how much you raise your license fees to cover drops in cable subscription, eventually, cord cutting would impact its business.  The result, a digital network/app for cable authenticated customers, called WatchESPN.  "ESPN collects money for the app from pay-TV providers such as cable companies, which pay for the right to offer it to their customers. For ESPN, a second revenue stream comes from advertising on the app. "

Talk about a great extension of its linear channels.  An online app that cable operators pay a monthly license fee to ESPN and then market to its cable subscribers as an extension of their cable service.  And ESPN gets both some subscription revenue and advertising revenue from their digital business. 

Sports fans, especially ESPN fans, are most likely not the households dropping their cable subscriptions.  Consumers that are cord cutting tend to find non-sports content through other platforms.  So ESPN may be seeing loss of subscriber revenue because consumers are cutting off their cable subscriptions, but their ratings remain unchanged as their viewers are not the ones cutting the cord.  Ratings though could eventually drop as the cost of cable service eventually drives even the ardent sports fan away from cable.

For now, ESPN has created a smart digital business that retains cable subscribers and keeps cable operators happy while building out an ESPN digital business that could one day become a standalone subscription OTT network.  "ESPN is talking to broadband providers about other Internet products, such as an ultra-high-definition version of its TV channels that would be offered only to people who upgrade to faster tiers of broadband. "  ESPN seems to have found a way to straddle the cable and digital business; hopefully, they can keep their balance as consumers continue to adapt to a digital world.   

Apple Keeps Getting Away From One Size Fits All

When Steve Jobs was alive, he seemed intent on a one size fit all approach, for the iPad and iPhone.  But since his passing, Apple has listened more to the consumer.  A mini iPad was introduced and a slightly larger iPhone screen.  And now there are rumors that Apple will release more extensions of these products in more sizes.  That includes even larger screens for both of these products.  Would Steve Jobs approve?

Believe it or not, I think he would.  What set Apple products apart were its ease of use, speed, and seamless integration of design and function.  Seeing consumer demand for multiple size products to fit their needs, Jobs most likely would have followed the same course that Tim Cook has taken.  Ultimately, the size of the product can vary for it is what these Apple products can do that sets them apart.  So while Apple hasn't verified that new screen size products are coming in 2014, I would expect that we will hear about them come Spring and Fall.

My Television Is Already A Dumb Terminal

No matter how much television manufacturers try to smarten up their TV sets, I believe a vast majority only use it as a dumb screen connected to a smart box.  If essentially your remote is used to turn the TV on or off, raise or lower volume, or perhaps switch input devices, your screen is a dumb screen.  All the content that streams through it comes from another device, your cable box most likely, or perhaps a game box, blu-ray or DVD player, Apple TV, or some other separate box connected to your set. 

So why are we paying for smart TVs with WIFI and other content applications?  Because companies are hoping you will prefer an integrated experience, but history has proved otherwise.  In the old world of stereo entertainment platforms, some manufacturers offered us one box that combined turntable, amplifier, radio, and speakers in one; the more sophisticated devices were separate pieces that plugged together.  The best receiver, the best turntable, the best speakers, the best CD player for the price you wanted to spend.  So while some customers may like a smart TV, I believe most prefer the separate devices that fit their budget and their lifestyle.

Mark Arana, executive director for strategy and innovation at Walt Disney Studios, at an OTT panel at Streaming Media West, seems to believe that "television will become a second screen, essentially a dumb terminal for content streamed from mobile devices."  I'm quite surprised at this remark as a future occurance as it has been happening for more than a decade.  Just look at the penetration of cable boxes in the home, mostly happening years ago when cable operators switched from analog to digital and required a converter box to unscramble signals.  At that point, the TV became a dumb device.  Since then, more and more boxes have emerged, thanks to the rise of streaming, to offer more content choice into this same dumb box, as well as into tablets, smartphones, and laptops. 

Consumers can pick their platform and pick their device to view, no longer tethered to the TV set.  Its allure continues to be the bigger screen, but for consumers that demand mobility and more personal viewing, the TV set is simply one monitor choice.  But second screen, I don't think so; it still represents for many homes the central focal point for family viewing.  Its simply a dumb screen with many more content platforms to connect to it. 

Will Comcast Godfather A Charter And Time Warner Cable Deal?

Charter has some business interests in acquiring Time Warner Cable and it seems it makes sense to get some help from "The Godfather" or in this case, Comcast Cable.  As the largest cable operator, Comcast still has interests to improve its footprint and a possible result might be that Charter would spin off some markets for Comcast's financial support.  "Charter approached Comcast last week to discuss carving up Time Warner Cable's systems and subscribers, after the second-largest U.S. cable company rejected its offer, Reuters reported."

Consolidation in the wired space has become an important need, especially to compete against telco companies like AT&T and Verizon.  With Verizon's acquisition of Intel Media, it is becoming more and more clear that their plans are to expand its footprint beyond its FIOS footprint.  With an expanded wired footprint and wireless connections for authenticated users, Comcast and Charter could both win. 

Verizon On Internet Buying Spree

It seems that Verizon is on a strategic mission with aggressive plans to compete in the wired and wireless space.  The growing demand for access to content and the platform to support it has led Verizon on a buying spree.  Last month, Verizon announced its plan to acquire EdgeCast Networks, a leader in the CDN or content delivery space; Now Verizon has formalized a plan to acquire the Intel Media unit and its OnCue TV business from Intel.  The OnCue platform, set top box and applications, was Intel's attempt to compete in the OTT space.  "OnCue is designed to provide pay-TV programming over any high-speed Internet connection, making it a threat to cable-TV services that deliver shows over dedicated lines restricted by territory. Intel’s system includes servers, set-top boxes and applications that can stream content to televisions, phones and tablets."

Now under the Verizon FIOS umbrella, content may finally be available for the service.  Coupled with a CDN to support stream demand, Verizon seems to be acquiring the pieces to augment its FIOS business beyond the confines of a wired franchise.  Certainly Verizon FIOS, along with its cellular business Verizon Wireless, aims to be a more competitive business to the cable and satellite providers.

The biggest impediment remains content companies, especially broadcast and cable networks, that work hard to protect all their revenue streams by limiting licensing agreements to specific platforms and uses.  It is why OnCue was unable to create an OTT line-up of channels to market to consumers.  Verizon is fortunate enough to have FIOS agreements in place as well as content from Redbox Instant.  But I'm sure given the acquisitions that have already occurred, Verizon has a strategic plan in place for content too.  And perhaps that includes buying a content company like a Scripps or Discovery to fill the bucket.  That would be my guess. 

"How Do You Solve A Problem Like Maria" (or DVRs)

It seems that NBC recognizes the key to survival of linear television is live programming.  Credit sports, award shows, and now for NBC, Broadway musicals on television.  With the success of The Sound Of Music last December, NBC has announced its second live production, Peter Pan. 

Certainly casting will drive the buzz worthiness.  For Sound it was Carrie Underwood vs Julie Andrews; and for Peter Pan, the question will be who will play the role made notable by Mary Martin.  Viewers still willing to make appointment television, will enjoy these programming choices.  Peter Pan may not have the same fan base as Sound of Music, but it certainly has the name recognition.  Should this strategy prove another ratings hit, other Broadcast and Cable networks may soon try to overload us with this same approach.  And sometimes too much of a good thing is too much. 

There Is Nothing Like TV (Set)

Let's face it, despite the rise of tablets, smartphones, and laptops, we still like to watch out TVs.  There is nothing like a big screen HDTV to watch a movie, sporting event, or any number of TV shows.  But we must also separate where that content is coming from.  No longer is it being driven by antenna or cable operators directly into our TV set; instead, options have multiplied as more and more devices sync with our big screen monitor.  We have Roku, Apple TV, and gaming devices like XBox One and PS4, connecting video content to the set; We have Chromecast, Blu-ray players, and more all with streaming media capabilities.  And the choice of viewing is almost unlimited. 

More amazing, we also have choice when deciding whether to watch our shows on the big screen or our personal handheld devices.  TV Everywhere continues to make progress so that our linear networks are viewable where we are and not just on the TV.  Still, my original premise holds.  When we plan to be sedentary for a while, there is nothing like the size, sound, and detail coming from a big screen HDTV monitor and surround sound speakers that makes all the difference in the world.

Should Apple make an HDTV to compete in the space with Samsung and others?  Many expect a smart, internet enabled, HDTV, to be announced this year. But my recommendation.  If Apple must build a screen, make it a dumb monitor and put all the connectivity into its Apple TV box.  Its already built and besides, Apple is building so many different size screens for its iPad and iPhone, why not build a 55" screen for the living room. 

Broadband Could Bundle Like Cable

The loss of net neutrality has many folks fearing that equal access to content will no longer be equal.  Where the FCC tried to ensure that all content was treated equally regardless of its size, the recent US Court order has opened Pandora's Box to new concerns including higher costs to access higher speeds and bundling of content online.  And ultimately, that consumers will pay more to access content.

Critics of the new ruling believe that now ISP companies, the ones providing broadband service to your home, will charge content companies more to get HOV access and faster speeds.  More established and richer content platforms, can afford to pay up, but they might also need to raise their subscription fees to recoup those added costs.

ISPs, like Comcast and Time Warner, could also start charging consumers more usage fees and bundle content to customers that want to receive faster streams.  "The cheapest, fastest bundles will probably include the sites that pay ISPs the most -- most likely the big boys, including Amazon and Netflix. Another possibility is that ISPs could bundle popular sites with less-popular ones that are willing to pay. If you pay for a Netflix bundle, for example, you may be forced to use the Bing search engine."  Good for the more established brands, but bad for new platforms and its content trying to get discovered and viewed.  It starts to look eerily reminiscent of today's cable packaging plans.

And while the internet is not a utility, it certainly has become useful for utilitarian purposes from communication to information.  "Access to unrestricted news will become a luxury reserved only for those who can pay more to their providers."  Schools and libraries could become the best meeting places for the less fortunate to access high speed internet. 

Of course, all this pontificating doesn't take into account how consumers and the government react to any detrimental shifts.  We can be sure that new disruptive technologies will also emerge to quickly change the landscape, from new ideas to reduce file loads to new entrants in the ISP space and new technologies that make the current internet look like a dinosaur.  The media landscape continues to evolve at a faster and faster pace and no doubt, the end of net neutrality may simply be the opportunity for new doors to open. 

The Court Enables ISPs To Run HOV Lanes

In what has been described as a blow to net neutrality, the US Court has pushed aside FCC efforts to keep the internet stream open and equal to all.  Instead, they are allowed to operate HOV lanes and charge premium pricing for access.  That means that broadband providers like Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Verizon, and others can pursue deals with high usage content distributors like Netflix, Amazon and others for faster streams at higher prices.  In addition, "The U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit ruled Tuesday that the FCC did not have the authority to prohibit broadband and mobile service providers from selectively blocking or slowing Web traffic and applications."

For companies willing to pay it means more costs to distribute and for broadband providers, it means a new revenue stream.  And for the consumer, it ultimately means higher costs for content and some difficulty in getting content from outlier platforms.  If Netflix needs to pay more for distribution, they need to charge consumers a higher subscription fee to recoup those losses.  Consumers will find content that didn't pay for HOV access slowed down in getting their streams to our respective devices. 

Why did the courts rule this way?  It is because they do not see the web as a utility like gas, electric, or water.  It is not a basic right regardless of how pervasive it has become for communication purposes.  And the laws of our free economy best operate under supply and demand.  As long as it does not operate under monopolistic conditions, government shouldn't interfere.  And like a free economy, the rules of disruptive technology should also apply.  Technological innovation to improve streaming, deliver alternative solutions, and improve our lives.  By not setting net neutrality rules, the US Court may just be inviting new broadband opportunities to emerge. 

Charter Cable Talks, DirecTv Balks

A busy 24 hours in media and distribution as Charter Cable finally pulls the trigger and makes a formal bid for Time Warner Cable; at the same time, negotiations for contract renewal collapses between DirecTv and The Weather Channel and so the network is dropped from its lineup.  And yet neither of these occurrences should come as a surprise to anyone.

For Charter and Time Warner Cable (TWC), discussions have been ongoing and the question became just how much would Charter bid.  The current offer matches the current stock price and does little to impress TWC management.  So next step, Charter plans to take it directly to the shareholders and demonstrate that a combined entity will deliver better earnings, higher profits, and a better investment.  And more leverage to negotiating license fees with cable networks.

Which brings me to the latest cable operator balking out what are likely higher license fees for carriage of The Weather Channel.  Certainly its license fees are not exceptionally high, especially compared to sports and other top 10 cable networks; still, weather content can be found quickly and easily online.  When weather doesn't affect our lives, Weather Channel programming tends toward reality type programming; but, when the big storms hit, weather fans love to watch the network and embrace the rising tides, high winds, snow flakes, and more. 

But then again, it seems, so does every other news oriented network, from CNN to MSNBC to Fox plus all the broadcast affiliates.  Weather reporting is everywhere. In fact, cable networks have all left their core niche arena to be general entertainment for all, from news and weather, to reality programming and broad based entertainment.  So DirecTv must believe that their customers will not suffer greatly as they have other networks to fill the void.  Plus any cost savings helps DirecTv to keep its subscription fees from rising. 

The Weather Channel may be feeling the heat, but so have other networks struggling to get or keep on cable line-ups.  And with more consolidation potentially in cable, a TWC-Charter merger lets them negotiate even more tightly in what channels stay on their merged line-ups and which channels may face the ax. 

Apple's iPad Air Ad Takes New Tact

If your were watching the football games this weekend or The Golden Globes, you may have also watched the latest Apple ad for the iPad Air.  If not, here it is:



I have to first admit that when I initially saw it, I did not think it was an Apple branded ad.  Its style and context were a complete departure from their other ads.  But the more I watch it and think about it, the more it reminds me of their first ever ad, "1984", one that separated itself from the pack.  And with this newest ad, I believe they have achieved the same result.  Forbes says it well, "The company wants to show off why people love and use its products. They may be metal, glass and silicon, but what you’re buying is experience. It couldn’t be more removed from most everything the competition is doing."  But it also places the iPad in the hands of artists, risk takers, and professionals, and makes the product an essential element of the process.  And one thing it doesn't say is that you buy it for its lowest price, claims made by Apple competitors.  No, the iPad is meant for more meaningful accomplishments, whether conducting a marching bands routines, taking or creating pictures, or discovering new species.  And this newest ad campaign takes the user on this new journey. 
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Broadcasters And Aereo Get The Attention Of The Supreme Court

Given the new round of funding that Aereo is getting, along with an aggressive rollout plan, the genie may already be out of the bottle.  Still, the Supreme Court has finally agreed to listen to the broadcasters case and decide the validity of the Aereo business.  Of course the earliest the case will begin is April which gives Aereo another quarter to advance its OTT platform. 

And should the Supreme Court deliver a ruling for or against the broadcasters' motion,  I don't expect a massive change in the current license fee structure.  If Aereo wins, consumers still need a strong broadband connection to receive the signals.  And Aereo might still want to make deals with broadcasters and cable networks to get local advertising inventory.  And cable operators will continue to pay broadcasters a license fee given the expense to build out antenna farms.  If Aereo loses, broadcasters will still come up with streaming models to deliver linear feeds of their channels, working with cable operators on an authentication process. 

So let the legal fees add up, the genie is already out of the bottle.

I've Become A Second Screen User

I must admit that lately, with certain television programming, my iPad is part of my experience with the TV show.  And a recent study out of CES indicates that I am not alone.  "About 44 percent of Americans utilize another device while watching television".  Now I must also admit that my second screen doesn't always relate to what is on the big screen.

For lots of programming, you might catch me playing an iPad game while sneaking peaks at the TV and listening for major plot changes.  And yes, some times I am forced to pause and rewind.  But I also admit that I have used my iPad for additional information related to the programming I am watching.  When watching a movie, I sometimes find myself going to IMDB to get more detail on the cast or what else that actor has been in; when watching football, I keep an eye on the CBS Scores for more detail on yards gained by the running back or pass completions.  And they add related Twitter commentary attached to the game I am watching, to share my frustration and/or joy of the results on the field.  I must also admit with award shows coming, it is fun to read the Twitter feed for the snarky comments associated with the programming and the stars being feted.

As a society, we have become much more multi-taskers in our day.  The result is a lost focus at times but we also gain incremental information that was once not available before.  I think for high involvement programming, the second screen may cause us to miss key plot points or plays on the field, but technology also lets us rewind and pause as long as others in the room don't mind.  Are there incremental revenue opportunities from the second screen, I'm not sure.  But if it delivers loyalty to those apps, we may eventually register the other marketing messages that are presented to us.  In the meantime, the use of the second screen will only continue to grow. 

Cable Network Bypassing Cable Operators For OTT

While Comcast says it saw a small increase in basic subscription, Time Warner Cable reported a Q4 drop of 250 million households.  Cord cutting might be slowing down, but no one doubts that it is still occurring in households tired of paying for channels they don't want.  That hurts new and independent cable networks unable to gain any foothold on a cable line-up.  And for the WWE, a decision it seems to bypass the cable operator to offer its brand new linear network as an ala carte service to consumers through streaming platforms.

"The WWE Network launches Feb. 24 as a streaming service for $9.99 per month with a six-month commitment and will include all 12 pay-per-view events."  Cable operators will certainly not like competition for eyeballs to Summer Slam and other monthly event based programming and could retaliate.  Cable networks like USA that carry weekly WWE programming could also decide to stop airing these shows although that also seems unlikely.  So the WWE sees tremendous upside in offering a streaming linear network to augment its media empire and ultimately reach the younger demo that has been embracing streaming video content.  Will they see the value in a $10 monthly service for just one channel?  Hardcore fans that also buy multiple PPV fights will find this to be a better deal.  I also wouldn't be surprised that it could be a better financial deal for WWE to stream rather than split revenue with each of the cable operators for its monthly fights.    

For WWE, the offer of the PPV fights included with the streaming linear subscription model could just be the tactic that assures that they surpass their breakeven level.  And other programmers who have been unable to grow their subscriber base through the cable operator model may look toward the WWE model to help create their own winning streaming linear and on demand subscription service, too.

Who Won The Gaming Platform Wars in 2013

Two new gaming platforms were released late last year and while supply was tight, demand was fierce.  Both Sony and Microsoft are trying to dominate the game platform space with the PlayStation 4 and XBox One respectively, and now we have a winner.  Announced at the CES, the PS4 outsold XBox One 4.2 mm over 3 mm devices in 2013, a healthy differential of 1.2 million consoles.  Ding, ding, ding we have a winner.

And in my own family, my son, faced with the same choice, also opted for a PS4.  His rationale, a better gaming device and more desirable games.  Of course, we had to wait in line for hours on a Sunday morning in front of a Best Buy to get the golden ticket and allow us entry into the store to purchase the player and accessories. 

For him and others that chose the PS4 comes more good news.  Sony announced that the PS4 will be enabled with backwards compatibility in order to play its older games.  In addition, "The company also on Tuesday unveiled a cloud-based TV service featuring live TV, DVR and video on demand."  It seems the next move now rests with Microsoft and their efforts to further differentiate the XBox One.  And let's not forget Nintendo and its Wii U console, a favorite it seems for younger audiences who have not yet graduated to more hard core gaming.  For now congratulations Playstation, you won the first battle of what still looks to be a longer war.

Some CES Devices In Search Of A Problem

While I have not attended CES the last few years, I do enjoy reading and watching the various news media updates on the latest gadgets and devices being highlighted at the show.  But it makes me wonder whether they will be hits or misses.  In some cases, I hear about new products and wonder if they are trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist or even simply creating a solution to a problem they hope people will want solved.

As to misses, I remember the introduction of 3D TV and the accompanying 3D glasses and thought it was something I wouldn't want on the home.  Heck I don't generally like 3D in the movies.  This year, it is the release of 4K, higher resolution than current HD and I wonder how high is high.  I mean, our eyes can only register so much clarity and the rest is wasted.  And the memory requirements to download or store 4K content will only clog an already clogged and sometimes slow broadband stream.  So for me I say 4K doesn't fly with consumers.

I saw devices that provide you a constant commentary on your heartbeat and another wearable device that measure your  golf swing.  I swear other golfers will be fuming if you keep looking down at your tablet or smartphone during a game, and slowing down and distracting what is meant to be a social game.  And while knowing my heartbeat is nice, I don't need speakers to hear it. 

My biggest issue with wearable devices are the ones that cause distraction from our normal activities.  Don't look at your watch phone while driving or your smart bracelet or Google Glasses while walking across a street.  You might get hit by a bus and your heart beat won't matter anymore.

Need to replace your stove.  One new oven includes a tablet that will tell the kids when the dinner is ready.   That one made me chuckle.  So take some of these new consumer electronic announcements for what they are worth.  Some may become the next must have device and others simply solutions searching for a problem.

2014 Media Predictions

It is the first Monday of a new year, CES is set to start again, and the stock market is off to a lukewarm pace.  And so it may just be time to come up with some 2014 media predictions.  So what should we expect from this new year?

Everyone is touting this year as the year for wearable technology.  Samsung offered its Galaxy Gear watch and others have devices to measure calories, steps, and heartbeat.  So the timing seems right for Apple to finally release its iWatch along with "softwear" and software that makes it an integral part of the Apple family.  That means deals with Nike and other companies to bring more connectivity to the devices and more useful data.  And of course the iWatch must be uniquely styled to represent an ergonomic and fashionable device.

What I don't predict and hope that Apple agrees, is a smart TV.  The margins are awful, manufacturers had a huge miss with 3D, and smart TVs can best be created with a box behind the set.  If you have to create a TV set, make a dumb big screen monitor, but let other devices run it. 

And speaking of boxes, its time for Apple TV to get bigger, stronger, better.  I also wouldn't be surprised if TiVo finds itself an acquisition target with Samsung or Apple willing to own.  For me, the box behind the HDTV set will become the most crucial piece of equipment.

In the world of cable, I expect consolidation on both the operator and the programmer side.  Time Warner Cable seems the most likely candidate these days, but should a deal fall through, I think Cablevision remains the next likely candidate.  On the network side, I expect a programmer like AMC Networks and Scripps to both be on the market.  Smaller programmers too will find themselves at risk; perhaps even changing their business model to focus entirely on the streaming marketplace. 

And speaking of streaming, I expect that by year end, Hulu's owners will have tried and failed to get along.  The service will be back up for sale and networks will focus on their own streaming platforms.  TV Everywhere will become (ATC) for Authenticated TV Everywhere and licensing deals with cable operators will include authorizations to stream.  Regardless, cable subscription will continue to drop although at a slower rate.  A better economy will mean that consumers will keep their cable subscription AND subscribe to streaming services like Netflix.  

For print media, Time Inc will disengage from its parent, Time Warner and build extensive video relationships.  Successful print companies will merge their digital and print subscriptions for one price and consumers can choose to donate their print copy to schools, libraries, and other establishments or continue to receive.  Print and broadcast will build better synergies to provide more extensive news coverage and deeper analysis.  Writers will report on air and encourage viewers to visit their site for more coverage. 

Radio may just see a resurgence.  Perhaps it is time for NBC to own some radio stations and here in the NY market to hear the familiar call of "W Ennnn B C".  CBS appears to be finding some success in radio and NBC would like to own a piece.  And streaming music will only get more competitive with Spotify, Pandora, Apple, and others pushing their subscription services through broadcast and cable. 

So those are some of my 2014 predictions.  While I have no research or facts or rumor to back any of it up, it just seems like these scenarios are likely to happen.  How many do I get right; well a scorecard at the end of the year may just be the way to go.