Hulu Growing Despite Sale Rumors

Hulu's owners might need to stop thinking about whether to sell their positions in what looks to be a very successful business.  Perhaps it is because they compete with each other in the broadcast and cable space, but if the Fox, NBC, and ABC parents can put their differences aside, they have a partnership in Hulu that continues to grow and perform.  "Hulu said today during its upfront presentation in New York that it set a revenue record in the first quarter of this year with $695M, and that Hulu Plus subscriptions passed 4 million subscribers after doubling in 2012."  And while that is quite a bit smaller than Netflix and Amazon Prime, it means that there is still quite a bit more growth ahead of it. 

By following a strategy of developing original exclusive content for its site, Hulu recognizes a similar strategy being deployed by others.  Keeping the pipeline full and flowing assures that consumers continue to pay their subscription fees and use the streaming service.  And as these upfronts show, there are some original productions already in the mix and prepping for release, including The Awesomes and The Wrong Mans that sound quite good.

Whether the Hulu partners wish to compete in this space through this entity or sell off this asset, remains to be seen.  If they do sell, I can predict that their should be a number of parties eager to bid for it in order to own the Hulu business. 

SiriusXM Replaces Karmazin And Reports Growth

With Mel Karmazin now gone, Sirius looks to his replacement Jim Meyer to continue to grow the company.  For the first quarter, Sirius saw subscribers, revenue, and income all grow, but perhaps not as high as the stock market would like.  Most concerning may be the cost associated with keeping subscribers paying and not leaving or churning from the service.  As more and more automakers include Sirius in their audio package, the challenge is getting these customers to take the service past the free period.

As a new car owner, I enjoyed the free period but admit to not purchasing the service when the free trial ended.  We tend to drive less and use mass transit more.  Most car use for us is short trips around the area with few long distance driving.  The result, the radio is not on that long in the car.  And local radio stations provide the news, sports, and music that we need.  We can also link to our iPod when we desire to personalize the music we want to hear.  I would however consider a Sirius subscription if my driving habits required more long distance, out of area trips, where station strength fades and switching stations is a requirement.  Sirius provides a valuable assortment of entertainment for those kind of drivers.

Whether Sirius can reduce its churn to increase subscription above expectations remains a challenge.  Price point also plays into the consumer decision to retain or leave the service.  But given that Sirius has an opportunity to also grow ad revenue can help improve their bottom line.  It also helps that better research can be gleaned from listeners to help sell a more targeted ad campaign.  The hope I'm sure for Sirius is that an improved economy means more call sales and more customers testing the service. 

As One Show Moves To Cable, Two Move To The Web

The rise of online distribution means more content viewing choices; at the same time, cable and broadcast still are where most viewers look first to consume content.  We have seen the rise of original content going directly to streaming, like Netflix's "House of Cards", and now we are seeing shows move from one platform to another.  Actually, we are seeing three!

For soap opera fans, the loss of two long time series on ABC, “All My Children” and “One Life to Live”,  are finding new life and new original shows on streaming media.  According to the NY Times, "Some fans have set their alarm clocks for 5 a.m. Monday, the precise time when the shows will have their premieres on Hulu and iTunes — and complete the closely watched transition from TV to the Internet."  Will viewers follow these two shows?  Like Netflix did for "Arrested Development", rabid fans may be very happy to find new episodes can be found online.

But this trend to move a show from one platform to another is not a one way road.  For HuffPost Live, an online, live news program on the Huffington Post web site, a new audience may soon discover them.  Also according to today's NY Times, "The company announced Sunday night that Mr. Cuban’s cable channel AXS TV, previously known as HDNet, would soon carry HuffPost Live’s programming for six hours a day."  That means that HuffPost Live will extend its reach to around 41 million cable subscribers. Cable and broadcast networks, looking for potential new series can let online sites incubate new shows and take them to their audience once they mature.  The same could hold true for TV pilots being tested online. 

As much as cable and broadcast networks worry that online will steal viewers and subscription revenue, they may also find that working collaboratively can perhaps work, too.  For now, we can watch and wait as more original shows move back and forth between online and on TV. 

Netflix CEO Sees The End Of Linear TV

Netflix, despite its bumps and bruises, has navigated from a DVD subscription model to a digital one.  And according to their CEO, Reed Hastings, imagines a TV future that is all streaming and non-linear.  "People love TV viewing, but they hate linear TV, including DVRs and cable VOD services, argued Hastings: 'The linear TV channel model is ripe for replacement.' Stepping up to replace it are apps from companies like Netflix, HBO and ESPN, which deliver programming to multiple screens."And while I agree that the viewing model for consumers is changing rapidly, I believe that consumers will find a viewing experience balanced between linear and non-linear video consumption. 

As I read the article, I admit a bit of confusion when Hastings describes linear TV to include DVR and VOD. But I believe his description is more between the current cable/satellite model and a digital streaming one.  "Technical advances, including 4k streaming and personalized advertising, will speed up the transition from linear TV to app-based on demand programming, and TV Everywhere will make it easier for cable networks to transition into this new world." 

I prefer to describe linear TV as a sit back model where we are fed video that has been pre-programmed to air at a particular time and once aired is not accessible till its next airing.  A non-linear model for me is one that includes DVR and VOD and streaming services where the consumer chooses when and what to watch.  And  consumers are moving toward the streaming model because of the mobility and personalization factors.  But some streaming is in fact linear.  Huffington Post offers its HuffPost Live channel on its website.  And linear still matters for live events, especially sports, as well as news, weather, and other big events.  I expect broadcast and cable to deliver more live programming as a means to capture audience share from on demand.  With live comes an anything goes factor that is harder to edit out.  And for viewers that simply want a sit back TV experience, linear reduces the choices a viewer has to make.

So Hastings is right that streaming will impact viewing choices more and more.  And his decision to build a brand experience that defines and positions itself above the fray is a smart strategy.  "'For us to be hugely successful we have to be a focused passion brand. Starbucks, not 7-Eleven. Southwest, not United. HBO, not Dish.'”  Competition for audience will only get fiercer when you add up all the choices a consumer can access for their viewing pleasure.  And with so much non-linear choice, we may sometimes simply revert back to linear programming to simplify the viewing experience.

Set-Top Boxes Not Going Away

As much as TV sets come with a remote control, most of us rely on the remote from our set-top box to turn the channel and adjust the channel, even turn on and off the TV set.  Cable operators rely on their set-top boxes to unscramble signals, record programming for later viewing, and access video on demand.  We only tend to use the remote from our TV to switch inputs to our other devices. And it is those other "set-tops" that want a piece of our TV screen. 

Apple has its box, Apple TV, to access programming from our iTunes library and other streaming accounts.  And Rovi offers its own video streaming box. X-Box, Playstation, and Wii have their set-top box for gaming while also enabling streaming content to play.  And TiVo has built a solid DVR set-top box  while Boxee has a set-top box to record programming in the cloud; both with features that enable video streaming as well.  So, many of us most likely have more than one set-top box lurking around our TV set.  And more devices are arriving. 

Although it offers its video streaming Prime services to some of the above set-top boxes, Amazon is preparing to release its own Kindle TV set top-box.  "By building its own system, Amazon can put its content more directly in front of consumers while expanding its lineup of devices and giving developers another reason to create apps for Amazon’s digital ecosystem."  While set-top boxes have been around a long time, their functionality and ergonomics have improved greatly.  Which boxes the consumer prefers and how they wish to access their streaming content, whether through the TV set or other mobile devices, remains to be seen.  And most importantly, the exclusivity, variety, and amount of content accessible to consume will be where the consumer is most likely to dine and view.

When Is Apple's Next Big Thing

Apple released its earnings last night and while all signs point to a healthy business, its stock price reflects a drop in profits and and product growth.  Despite what appears to be a solid infrastructure of software and hardware, Apple is no longer seen as innovating, merely refining its product line.  In the last decade, prior to Steve Job's death, Apple successfully introduced the iPod, the iPhone, and the iPad.  But threats of a future new product line have yet to appear.  Rumors of an Apple TV set or iWatch have yet to be announced, or any other new device; instead, we get only bigger, lighter, and cheaper.  But once you reach a tipping point of growth, it is hard to ask consumers to keep buying new devices every two years.  iPhones may achieve some of that thanks to renewal contracts that offer discounted phones, but when faced with choice some new consumers opt for an older iPhone version that can be had for a cheaper or even no cost. I believe that consumers will be less likely to update their iPads as frequently.

So Apple shareholders face a market that is lowering the stock price, despite a financially sound company delivering a strong dividend.  Apple lacks the perception of future growth and that is the fear that depresses the price.  Should Apple surprise us this year with a new product that supports our technological hunger, then this new revenue stream will re-energize the share price.  Till then, we wait and watch hoping a new product release is in the cards.

Content Is King And A Good Investment

For makers of content, the demand has never been higher.  Consumers crave content to feed their entertainment hunger, on TV, on tablets, smartphones and laptops.  Where only a few decades ago, video content was limited to broadcast and a few cable networks, today the list has expanded to include premium nets like HBO, SHO, and Starz, video on demand services, and especially the rise of streaming services from You Tube, Amazon, Netflix, Redbox, and so many more, both subscription and free to view.  

And what appears to be the secret sauce in building a successful network or online service, original content that breaks through to become valued.  Broadcasts have felt that with American Idol and other hits, premium services like HBO felt it with Sopranos, and Netflix is feeling it with House of Cards and Arrested Development.  In fact, Netflix recent earnings are subscriber growth are results of this push toward original content.   Consumers are craving more and that desire never seems to get fulfilled.  For as one series fulfills, another takes over to attract demand. Not that every piece of original content achieves such status, but it seems that accessibility of content helps to drive viewership.

Wall Street might agree.  "Corporate and private equity firms will be looking to bulk up on entertainment, driven in part by tech companies’ need for content that provides 'a level of security on prospective cash flows,' the analysis says."  Comcast paid well for NBC; Disney paid well for Lucasfilms and their Star Wars franchise.  And Netflix has seen its stock price soar as a result of its push toward more original and exclusive content.  Today Sony has announced plans to create another  network to play its library of movie content.  You Tube has its original channel and Amazon is streaming original pilots to help find their next series to produce.  And consumers can't seem to get enough.  Of course, with so much new content being produced, the challenge to find the best gets more difficult.  Breaking through the clutter to be discoverable will take on a rising challenge for all these companies in the content creation and distribution space. 

CBS For Sale?

Broadcast is big business.  Comcast completed its full ownership of NBC from General Electric earlier this year, while Disney acquired ABC many years ago from CapCities.  Now comes word that CBS, part of Sumner Redstone's empire could be for sale with the likely buyer being Time Warner, Inc.  "Gabelli & Co. said buying the most-watched broadcast network would give Time Warner, owner of cable channels such as CNN and TNT, more negotiating leverage to win higher fees from pay-television systems that carry its programming."  In a world of aggregating and leveraging content to aid license deals, such a move makes sense.  Why Viacom split from CBS in the first place was always a head scratcher.  Could Viacom become another takeover target?

In the recent NCAA Basketball Championship, CBS and Turner (a division of TW) seemed to work quite well together, promoting each other's games.  Having a broadcast partner in CBS would bring great internal partnerships.  "Their strengths are complementary -- Time Warner runs Hollywood’s most-prolific studio and CBS has the highest broadcast TV ratings -- and both plan asset sales to focus on those areas."  Whether Sumner is ready to let go of CBS, like Ted Turner did many years ago when he sold his Turner empire to TW, remains to be seen.  But the timing seems right for both parties to come together.

Streaming Subscriptions Embraced By Higher Income Households

Perhaps not all streaming subscriptions lead to cord cutting.  it might just be that in some households, cable subscriptions and streaming subscriptions like Netflix, Hulu Plus, Redbox, Amazon Prime, and others can live side by side.  While the Nielsen research cited doesn't delve into that question, it suggests that price may not be an issue when it comes to getting access to more content choices.  "Homes with incomes of over $100,000 made up 37% of all U.S. homes with a streaming subscription service and were 85% more likely to subscribe than the general population."  The study also cites that "Homes with tablets also significantly over index and are 66% more likely to have the services."  It might be reasonable to suggest that higher income households are more likely to own tablets, perhaps even higher number of tablets in their home than lower income homes.  The demand for content to play on these devices might then lead to these same households purchasing more streaming subscriptions to satisfy that need.

For lower income households, cord cutting and cord shaving might indeed lead to streaming subscriptions replacing their cable subscriptions, not augmenting their selection.  The rise of tablets in the home will certainly continue to impact this these studies and perhaps further distinguish the haves from the have nots.  At the end of the day, income will still be a key decider in whether households take both cable and streaming subscriptions or ends up dropping one service for another.

Comcast Can Compete In The TV Everywhere World

Comcast's "Watchathon Week"  successfully demonstrated that consumers like to access their programming on demand, both on and away from the TV screen.  "The Watchathon, which ran from March 25-31, offered more than 3,500 episodes from 30 TV networks to Xfinity TV subscribers for no extra charge, including full seasons of current shows from premium channels HBO, Showtime and Starz."   According to their report, "It set new records on the Xfinity.com/TV site and the Xfinity TV Player app for tablets and smartphones (no specific numbers were supplied)."  Because it is an added cost to subscribers, it is likely that usage of this service will drop significantly post this free trial. 

Will customers pay more to buy this service, I highly doubt; but I do believe that if Comcast offered their Xfinity on demand platform with a digital subscription for free, customers may be more willing to return to the nest and help Comcast compete more effectively against IP only competitors. It is a good step in growing out the TV Everywhere model for cable.

Amazon Adds Original Content In TV Pilots

Have you ever thought you could do a better job picking TV pilots then some executives.  Amazon has found a way to both get original content exclusively on its platform and get social media to engage in which shows should become TV series.  "Starting soon, it will debut 14 of its own TV show pilots on its website, allowing anyone from the U.S., U.K. and Germany watch them for free. The company will ask for viewer input, and hopes the comments and critiques will help decide which shows live or die."  Sounds kinda fun. 

It also works perfectly in a TV Everywhere approach, letting viewers watch these shows on the device of their choice and at the time and day they desire.  And most importantly, it lets the audience discuss and vote on what they like or don't like.  Build enough consensus and a pilot can turn into an exclusive series on Amazon.  In the meantime, it expands the content library of the service. 

Ultimately, Amazon hopes that offering these shows adds value to their Amazon Prime offering.  "Amazon has been investing heavily to convince more people to sign up for Prime, and recently paid for the exclusive online rights to a number of shows including the second season of 'Downton Abbey' and the CBS show 'Under the Dome,' which will debut this summer."  And consumers that are drawn to buying an Amazon Prime subscription tend to buy more goods on Amazon.  Amazon wins with more subscription revenue, advertising revenue, and e-commerce revenue. 

Can Aereo Kill The Broadcast Model?

Broadcasters seem up in arm about the disruptive force behind Aereo.  At its heart, it encourages cord cutting of cable for online access of broadcast signals.  "The start-up Aereo has been at the center of a storm in recent months because its technology threatens to blow-up the existing model of pay TV, which is based on selling viewers a bundle of channels, that include over-the-air stations like NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox."  But is the solution to fight or adapt? I propose adapting to the consumer.

Consumers want a TV Everywhere approach at a reasonable price; some don't want all the other cable networks and are happy with access to a limited base of networks.  So why not offer to your current cable and satellite distributors an authenticated model for access online of the broadcast signal.  Revise your agreements to enable a broadcast only tier of services at a limited price point.  If the concern is that Aereo will take away paying customers, then revise your model.

At the same time, a broadcasters' responsibility is to serve the community and over the air bandwidth came with certain requirements.  If it is free to receive through over the air antennas, then why shouldn't Aereo have the same right to use and repackage for consumers.  The signal is not changed in any way.  And it encourages more broadcast viewership, enabling higher ratings and higher ad revenues.  Still,  if you want to beat Aereo, then support an authenticated stream through current distributors.   A court battle is not the answer; a marketing and technological shift is what will best help broadcasters. 

Twitter, 140 characters + Video

Twitter has discovered their secret sauce. If you plan to lead your users to water, you might as well make them drink it, too.   Their model is more than just short messages, but links to other Twitter sites to enable more advertising opportunities.  And the best way to do it is with high quality, valued content.  "Twitter Inc. is close to reaching partnerships with television networks that would bring more high-quality video content and advertising to the social site, according to people familiar with the matter." 

And video, depending on its length, can provide Twitter with multiple revenue opportunities, from pre-roll to overlays to banners and more.  What sponsored messages can't do, video links can.  And video means more time spent on the linked site.  Perfect too for mobile, both smartphones and tablets, to move Twitter users to other sites.   Most importantly, it could work to build their own aggregated platform of content, like Huffington Post, Yahoo, and other sites. What the final intention may be for Twitter has not been fully disclosed, although to me, the opportunities for them to grow are enabled with video partnerships.

My Son Has Found Defiance

While he is indeed entering adolescence, Defiance is not how he treats his parents; rather, it is a multi-media piece of entertainment that has entered our home.  Even before I knew of the TV series that premiered this week on SyFy, I knew about the game.  He pre-ordered it from Amazon and waited patiently (and a little impatiently) for its arrival to play on X-Box.  He got an early chance to play an online version before its arrival too.  And he was clear that we needed to record the series for his viewing pleasure.  He was hooked.

What is Defiance?  I have no idea.  I haven't watched him play it or had a chance to watch the show with him.  But I agree that it is more than just a TV show or online game.  "The game and show have been pitched as groundbreaking transmedia, thanks to how they have been designed to complement each other and build out the world of its characters. And digging into the way both elements have been created to co-exist, it’s hard to deny the potential in the approach."  To make this work takes a lot of collaboration.  Plot points must co-exist both on the TV screen and online.  For viewers and players like my son, they make for a far richer experience.  Matching game play to linear viewing may be the biggest challenge of them all.

But does it translate into greater monetization?  The game side of the business model doesn't seem to need a lot of pushing to do well.  Some game success can be equated to box office size returns.  But rating should swell if users are engaged with the online characters and buy in to them on the TV screen as well.   "That difference, according to (Syfy head of original content Mark) Stern, is by design. '[The show] is going for a broader, older demo, but [the game] is going for a younger and more male-skewed audience,' he said. 'Hopefully we’ll be able to pull more of that younger demo into our channel and push older audience into the game.'”  Building interest to the demographics is key to higher revenue returns.

Content creators are sure to watch this series and measure the value it produces.  The success of this "transmedia" approach may just foretell the future of television programming.  How well it works remains to be seen, but it may just be the beginning of more collaborative online and on-screen ventures.

Dish Network Actively Wants Wireless

The one thing to be said about Dish Network and Charlie Ergen is that he is not afraid to go after what he wants.  With stories about wanting Clearwire, merging with DirecTv, offering the Hopper, and now buying Sprint, they have serious intentions to disrupt the media landscape.  Today it seems that if you can't get Clearwire, get the company trying to purchase it.  So why does Ergen want to add wireless to his media empire?  "DISH's Ergen said he's pursuing the merger to broaden DISH's business by offering integrated bundle packages of broadband data, voice services and home video that can be played at home or on the wireless network." 

To be competitive with cable and telecom, Dish needs a wireless business.  And Ergen rightfully recognizes that the communication landscape, whether video, audio or other data is becoming increasingly more mobile.  Dish's current distribution play requires a tethered antenna and wires to the TV.  Dish needs a wireless platform to augment and grow his distribution plans. And the acquisition of Sprint should help to take Clearwire as well. 

His bid for Sprint, a good 25% over Softbank's bid may or may not be enough. Will Softbank counterbid or will this ultimately be the move that gets Dish his wireless business.  And lastly, should a Dish/DirecTv merger be out of the question or the icing on the cake that makes their satellite play a much stronger competitor in the cable/telecom industry.

LinkedIn Buys Pulse While Google Drops Reader

LinkedIn, the social network site for building and sharing business relationships, has announced its plans to broaden into a news aggregation site.  "But more than that, it’s yet another move by LinkedIn to expand beyond being just a static resume service for recruiters and professionals."  Rather than just be a site for job seekers and hunters, LinkedIn can now be defined as an online business resource.  A smart move by LinkedIn to strengthen its relationship with its users.  "It wants to be the home page for professionals, including the place where those pros go to catch up on the biz news they care about."

As LinkedIn builds its monetization plans, both in ad and subscription models, I suspect that they will find away to build a premium version of Pulse to strengthen the LinkedIn subscription model and encourage more free users to upgrade.  The combination of LinkedIn with Pulse should build more synergies with original content that LinkedIn is creating.  And that will help to bolster their ad revenue, too.  All in all, a smart strategic purchase.

Has Social Media Jumped The Shark?

In a study by PiperJaffray survey of over 5,000 teenagers, Teens reliance on social networking has declined over the last 12 months.  While teenagers are heavily engaged in technology, smartphones and tablets, they have shifted away overall from social media.  According to the study, Facebook is still their most important social website although that interest has dropped by 9%.  Twitter and Instagram have dropped slightly from a year ago.  Google+, YouTube, and Tumblr have also dropped.  "This data measures sentiment, not usage stats. If this data is solid, though, we should see it reflected in a teen exodus from traditional social networks. Considering how unwilling some of these companies are to talk about the younger demographic, it may already be under way."

While this new generation may be fickle in what they use, their loyalty may easily shift.  Teens seem more likely to be early adopters in new activities, whether social media sites like Vine and Snapchat, content platforms like Redbox and Netflix, and music outlets like Pandora.   As to smartphones, Apple outshines the others for teens.  Speed is key and per the study, 4G is appealing to the generation as well. 

So has social media jumped the shark for teens?  The release of the Facebook Home app may just tell us what teens are thinking.  If it is embraced, then the answer is no; if it is tried and dropped, the answer is clear.

Could Dish and DirecTv Merge?

Can Charlie Ergen and John Malone work together? The report in Bloomberg suggests that Dish may be looking at a merger with its satellite rival to better compete against fiber providers.  As the article indicates, Ergen has been active in the marketplace, trying to takeover Clearwire in an attempt to gain a bigger wireless presence.  Synergies with DirecTv could also help in Dish's favor.  But would the FCC agree to such a merger?

Given what has been enabled in the airline industry with Continental/United and USAir/American Airlines, anything is possible.  Even Sirius/XM Satellite were approved to merge.  But is Malone ready to give up DirecTv or share control with Ergen?  Two strong personalities in a quickly changing media landscape.

Given the rise in wireless and broadband, competition would still remain strong. The addition of Google into the mix and the strength of cable and telephone companies in the space remain the fiercest competitors to both Dish and DirecTv.  A strong wireless play would enable them to compete more effectively against these companies.And I suspect should a merger be announced, the FCC would approve it. 

First Kansas City, Then Austin; Then...

Google's entry in the cable business is starting to take off; first has been Kansas City, a Time Warner Cable (TWC) franchise and next may be Austin, another TWC franchise market.  And to challenge TWC further, "AT&T says today that it, too, 'is prepared to build' a speedy 1 gigabit per second broadband system in Austin."  Good for competition and good for the consumer to have choice. 

While fiber is the backbone of connectivity, the rapid rise in mobility makes me wonder whether consumers need to have the last mile connection from pole to home?  Can the cable operators, as well as Google and others be able to achieve their objectives without that last connection.  As many of us have mobile devices that we use in or  homes, laptops, tablets, and smartphones, and I would imagine a large number have their own wireless network off their broadband provider's fiber to the home, is there a simpler solution.  By enabling wireless connectivity from the pole to the home, don't we assure a better wireless broadband experience.  And perhaps create some cost efficiencies for the companies. 

The fight for faster broadband connectivity is growing with the rise of larger bytes of content flowing and more consumers pushing the limits of the stream.  As consumers find themselves frustrated by slow broadband connectivity from their existing provider, the rise of new entrants like Google and others with faster speeds may become attractive.  A pre-emptive marketing campaign and capital investment in their own broadband infrastructure seems required by TWC to fend off these competitors. 

Fox Network Considers Move To Cable To Stop Aereo

Aereo, as a disruptor in the TV landscape, has certainly created buzz.  Poised to help cable cord cutters to receive broadcast channels without a cable subscription, Aereo has discovered a work around that the courts have yet to disallow.  By building an antenna farm and offering a unique signal to each subscriber. Aereo takes free, over the air signals, repurposes and sells to consumers. 

The broadcasters are angry because they don't receive compensation for their signal while cable operators do pay them.  Success by Aereo could cause cable operators to renegotiate to also get these same signals free.  And so one broadcaster has threatened to change their business strategy to assure their license fee structure remains intact.

"In an Armageddon-like declaration that could unravel network TV, a top News Corp. executive said Fox could become a subscription service if courts don’t put a halt to the retransmission of its shows for free."  That means that Fox Broadcast Network would switch from a broadcast model to cable programmer.  And while it would assure a license fee, it would alter the local broadcast affiliate world.  Does each Fox affiliate build their own digital feed or does Fox simply do away with the DMA model approach that has served it since inception.  And most at risk would be programming, syndication and sports that are exclusive to the DMA.

Are these idle threats by Fox or has some real analysis gone into the notion of changing their business model?  Regardless, Aereo has put the fear of G-d into broadcasters, Fox and others.  They are disruptors in the truest sense of the word.

If ABC Wants Synergy, Then Bring Back The Wonderful World Of Disney

In today's New York Times, the focus is on ABC and plans to take advantage of Disney content and turn it into TV series.  The rationale, known brands attract viewers to the network and grow ratings.  "Among ABC’s 24 pilots for the next television season is a drama based on Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, a Disneyland roller coaster. Another pilot, 'Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.,' is based on ancillary characters from 'The Avengers,' which last year took in $1.5 billion at the global box office for Marvel Entertainment, a Disney unit."  Given their success in one medium, fuels a greater chance of success in another. 

And that brings me back to my idea, bring back The Wonderful World Of Disney (WWOD).  A staple from my childhood, WWOD introduced us to Davey Crockett, the Mouseketeers, and of course Walt Disney himself.  Today, a new WWOD series can be used to test pilots, offer a variety of different themed programming, from nature to science and entertainment, and bring back more short programming, a staple of the You Tube generation.  It also enables Disney to promote upcoming movies with special behind the scenes footage and interviews.  Add a compelling host, perhaps, or even a rotation of guest hosts from the staple of Disney shows and movies, and a great programming concept is reborn.  And given the brand, it might just deliver the multi-generation audience that ABC desires to reach. To me, the timing is right for another reboot of the series.

Peter Chernin Makes Bid For Hulu

Former News Corp COO Peter Chernin knows an opportunity when he sees it.  Hulu is for sale and Chernin wants to run it.  "According to a report in Reuters Friday night citing unnamed sources, Chernin made a $500 million bid for Hulu last month. It was not revealed how much of a stake the former News Corp. exec was seeking in the online video giant."  Will Hulu bite or will it be a first move in a protracted sale?  Clearly Chernin sees value for Hulu and so do I.  Even is an ever crowding field, Hulu has built brand value.

Is Exclusive Not Enough For Netflix?

Yesterday's CNBC report issued a warning to Netflix shareholders that its exclusive content, specifically its show House of Cards, was not exclusive enough to retain subscribers.  Of particular concern, that Netflix only had first window rights to the content after which it would likely be made available to other platforms.  And according to the analyst interviewed on the network, subscribers will likely churn to other sites.  "On CNBC's "Fast Money," (Wedbush Managing Director Michael) Pachter said that it was clear from the show's DVD sales on Amazon.com and its television-friendly 48-minute run time, Netflix only had a limited window from which to profit from the series." I disagree with his analysis and believe he is being short-sighted in his remarks.

For all subscription services with no penalty for early termination, quick and easy churn is inevitable.  And in fact, viewers are a fickle bunch.  Those that want it quick will indeed sign up to watch and drop when they are done.  Others will find value for the aggregate of content that Netflix and other subscription services make available.

Pachter does not see Netflix as comparable to HBO, but truth be told, HBO has had many more years to develop their brand.  As HBO and others have learned, it takes time to develop a pipeline of content, especially after having initial success with a series.  Consumers always expect a just as strong follow up and sometimes they get a dud.  No, Netflix cannot expect a longterm gain from one particular piece of content, regardless of the rights and length of the distribution window. 

Consumers have an insatiable appetite for content; the more they get, the more they want.  For Netflix and others to succeed in the space, they need to keep filling the pipeline with more original content as well as a large library of other TV and movie titles.  For Netflix, next up is Arrested Development, and like House of Cards, it should keep subscribers interested. 

Add Another Competitor To Streaming Digital Content

Yesterday, Warner Bros. announced its new streaming subscription service.  And now we have another entrant in the download and digital rental space.  "Vdio, the premium video service founded by Skype co-founder Janus Friis, emerged from private beta Tuesday night with an offering that looks more like Vudu or iTunes than Netflix. The service offers users streaming access to major Hollywood movies and TV shows from all of the major studios, with titles either being available for rent or purchase."  As this field enters the space, consumers will find themselves dizzy trying to figure out where to turn first for their download or streaming content. 

As there is very little different the content other than the titles served, cost of service may become the biggest decider to purchase behavior.  For those already loyal to a provider already established in the space, whether iTunes, Amazon, Redbox, Vudu, or Netflix, disenfranchising the consumer may be the biggest fear leading to switching providers.  Netflix learned that the hard way when they tried to split their DVD rental service from their digital streaming service.  A move that cost them customers and goodwill.

Can Vdio enter and thrive in a crowded marketplace?  Given that digital streaming is still in its infancy, the answer is obviously yes.  Still, given that digital content is ubiquitous, factors like exclusivity, user friendliness features, connectivity, and perceived value will be important to how consumers choose and build loyalty to a particular service. 

Content And Distribution Back At Time Warner Inc.

When Time Warner Inc. split out from its cable company, Time Warner Cable, it seemed to set a trend for content companies not owning distribution companies.  Time Warner, with its Warner Bros studio and cable networks, including TNT and TBS, has been focusing more on managing its content efforts.  And they have been forward thinking with deals outside the cable operator including distribution deals with Netflix, Redbox, and even with Facebook. 

So today's announcement comes as a little bit of a change in their digital distribution strategy.  "Warner Bros. started a subscription streaming service featuring vintage TV shows and films, creating a new player in the online viewing field".  Their new subscription service, called Warner Archive Instant is expected to feature older TV and movie content while newer content is available on the other online providers.  Will these partners find any concern with their content partner now becoming a distribution competitor?  I would imagine that Netflix and Redbox would prefer aggregating all the Warner content available as their consumers love both old and new programming made available to them.  But if Warner Instant Archive finds itself with a winning formula, Time Warner may just try to extend itself further in newer content, bypassing their partners for a likely better profit margin.  And that is what may be troubling to these other subscription service providers.

You Can Resell An Album, But Not A Digital Album

It is Spring, whether the weather agrees or not and many use this time of year to clean out the house and sell old goods they no longer want.  For many, deals can be found in neighborhood garage and yard sales.  Some folks donate these items to "Gently Used" sales for fundraising purposes.  One could find used books, albums, and more for sale by owner.  So as the world has gone digital, we may find ourselves with digital books and music that we no longer desire and wish to purge from our system.

Unfortunately, the world of reselling goods in the physical form may not apply to those in the digital world.  "A federal judge in New York has dealt a blow to the nascent business of reselling digital goods like music and e-books, ruling that a small company’s secondary market for digital music infringes on the copyrights controlled by record companies."  Certainly, there is a physical difference in used real goods from digital ones.  Read a book and the pages get bent or torn, the cover bent or ripped.  Listen to an album and the record gets scratched or mishandled.  The notion of "used"  is something that has lost its pristine condition and is no longer untouched and perfect.  But digital copies can hardly be called used.  Usage of these items don't diminish the quality from one read or listen to another.  They remain in "perfect" condition.  And it seems that in that sense, they compete directly with original condition sales. 

"In addition to record companies, book authors have spoken out against the idea of a digital secondary market, saying that the presence of a 'used' but perfect digital copy of a book would cause prices to crash."  As the resell market is no different than the primary market, a direct competition does indeed exist.  The pricing model would be challenged as users would no doubt offer a reduced price to get back some value given the time they originally spent with the digital item.  The other fear is that while a physical item can be tracked and change hands, it is much more difficult to track that a digital copy resold does not continue to be held by the first buyer, and sold again and again and again.  And that is possibly the even bigger threat to the pricing model for the copyright owner. 

That the resale model is news reflect not only the digital world but still remains an issue in the physical space, too.  "The decision came less than two weeks after the Supreme Court upheld the first sale doctrine in the case of Kirtsaeng v. John Wiley & Sons, about a student who was importing and selling textbooks that he had bought at a lower price overseas."  And in NYC, the Yankees are fighting StubHub for reselling tickets to their baseball games at lower prices. 

Digital reselling is a new phenomenon.  In a world where "digital sharing" may be ok, digital reselling may be a no-no. 

Technology Makes Us A Nation Of Sharers

Have you liked an article or product or company recently on Facebook?  Do you share your playlists from Pandora or Spotify?  Have you assembled your Flipboard with plans to share as well?  It seems that we are becoming a nation of sharers.  As the breadth and depth of content continues to grow and overwhelm us, we begin to rely on expertise from others to help us navigate and discover new content, ideas, businesses, and more.  And we gain these recommendations from the social networks we live in.  Once there were book clubs, now there is Goodreads to recommend.  Technology has enabled us to more quickly and easily gather and share what we like to read, watch, and listen to.  And it allows us to gain recommendations and interests from our "friends" and "social networks".  How open we are to sharing is up to us; if our friends like something, we might too.  And with so much content clutter coming at us, its nice to have some guidance.