Will Fox and Time Warner Cable Make A Deal

New Year's Eve is here and tomorrow a new years starts. But for customers of Time Warner Cable, tomorrow may mean no Fox broadcast or its sister cable channels like FX and others. That is because their carriage agreement expires today and has yet to be renewed. And so customers of Time Warner Cable have a few choices: 1. Wait and eventually they will settle, but till then miss Fox programming, most likely this weekend's fare of Bowl and NFL Games. 2. Switch providers to Telco or Dish, still unlikely to get switched by tomorrow so still out of luck short term. 3. Buy a digital antennae and at least get access to Fox Broadcast. 4. Go to a friend's house or local bar with a different provider to at least watch the games. 5. Complain to the FCC and your Senators and Representatives.

Who is right in this squabble between two mega companies? Neither. Both live in a world with obscene profits and ultimately the customer is in the middle. Could Time Warner swallow the extra buck to carry Fox? Of course. Does Fox need the whole dollar as an increase; probably not. Is there a middle ground; yes, the question in this and every negotiation is who blinks first. And because neither side especially likes the other, that negative relationship plays an unfortunate part too.

And so it will play out all day and night, taking people away from their families and friends most likely till 12:01 AM. Happy New Year!

Will Canoe Ever Work?

Will interactive advertising through the cable box become reality; at some point, yes. But will Canoe be the one to pull it off; well, let's just say that they are yet to meet a deadline. "Canoe earlier this summer abandoned plans for a targeted-ad service, which was to let advertisers run different spots in a national campaign by overlaying them on existing local cable ad zones." That essentially was meant to enable more ads to traffic inside a :30 second spot. Targeted to the household, each unique spot could be run inside one ad break, essentially quadrupling the number of ad positions to sell. Advertisers would pay the premium to get ads targeting their best customers, by household. Canoe failed to bring that opportunity to market.

"Instead, CEO David Verklin said in June, Canoe would turn its focus to launching the interactive RFI product in the fourth quarter." That means the opportunity for a consumer watching the ad to push a button on the remote and get more info on the ad; that could be a free sample, promotional information, a specific video, and perhaps even the chance to order a product. But now even that is delayed till Spring 2010. And while Canoe failed to hit the deadline, Cablevision has proven that an interactive model can be deployed. "Cablevision, independent of Canoe, this fall launched Optimum Select, an interactive advertising service that runs on the MSO's proprietary ITV platform." Can Canoe catch up or will they in fact latch on to Cablevision. For Canoe, the future remains cloudy.

TVs In Cars Forecast To Double By 2015

For us with kids, a TV screen in the car, especially for long trips, has been an easy way to entertain while driving. Thanks to a large selection of DVDs, some of which we never get tired of watching over and over, the TV has great value. But what if there is something live on TV or simply a show that is always enjoyed, even with commercials, how can linear TV be enjoyed in the car? Not Direct TV or Dish, but perhaps cellular phones can help.

"For broadcasters, the major mobile TV play is being led by the Open Mobile Video Coalition (OMVC), which represents more than 800 local TV stations that plan to use the ATSC's mobile digital TV broadcasting standard. The OMVC has lined up device manufacturers that plan to sell products that work with the DTV specification, and the group plans to launch a customer trial in Washington, D.C., in 2010." But how about connecting a FLO TV enabled device to a jack and connect to the TV screen. "FLO TV is currently available through AT&T Wireless and Verizon Wireless and via a Qualcomm-developed handheld device with a lineup of more than a dozen live channels, including CNBC, ABC Mobile, Disney Channel, Fox Mobile, MTV, NBC2go and Nickelodeon." Or even better, why not work with a satellite delivered device that is already in the car.

It is the time for Sirius to enter the video world for mobile entertainment. And to ease that transition, it is time for Direct TV to buy Sirius. The combination of the two entities could be the best synergy to enable mobile TV to work. Sirius will not survive on radio alone and Direct TV needs additional advantages to overtake cable. This could prove a win win to both companies and to the public as well.

Fox and Time Warner Cable Battle - Customers Will Ultimately Lose

Ahhhh, remember the simple life when all there was to watch was free, over the air, broadcast TV. Just adjust your antenna and watch. Then cable came along and offered a clearer transmission and ultimately more channels. Then technology brought video recording and ultimately on demand. And with each change, the price for watching TV rose and rose and rose.

Welcome to today where broadcasters own cable channels and leverage is used to assure that dollars get spent on carriage of both broadcast, general cable nets as well as niche ones. The allure of subscription fees to augment the revenue from advertising is too compelling to ignore. So broadcasters switched from "must carry" to "Retrans" to force contract negotiation. Fees go up and cable customers pay more.

So today you have Time Warner Cable fighting Fox and Mediacom fighting Sinclair. Timing for contracts always seem to expire New Years Eve causing great despair as the clock is used to force settlement before time runs out and a holiday is upon us. Just in time for folks to be huddled around the TV, set to watch a movie or a college bowl game. Ultimately, more money will be spent and those costs will be passed on in cable bills.

And as broadcast signals have become digital, antenna reception more problematic, customers have been forced to carry cable to watch their shows. Will customers switch to avoid losing their Fox or will they wait and watch the drama unfold. A deal will be reached, maybe by December 31, maybe not. But shortly thereafter and it will then be another cable network and another cable operator's turn to go through this same dance. It's happened before and it will happen again. And once the customer gets tired of this ongoing fight, they will switch to internet viewing and simply find an alternative choice to satisfy their TV addiction.

Entertainment Trends From Nielsenwire

According to Nielsen, here are the top trends in entertainment in 2010:

1. Digital media shows solid growth.
2. New functionality and price drops increase gaming usage.
3. Rehashed, replayed games risk saturating the gaming market.
4. Sports globalization offers a new range of opportunities.
5. Piracy is a major concern for artists, authors and publishers.


While I agree that digital media will grow, that trend has been present for years. Web surfing, e-mail, e-books, iPhones, and more have dominated the landscape. There use will continue to dominate other media.

And gaming is becoming more universal, not just on in home devices like Xbox and Wii, but on smart phones and other mobile devices too. Gaming though is an addiction, a drug, that takes time away from more useful ventures. It may be fun, it may be challenging, and it certainly is engrossing; but, gaming does not lead to productivity. It is a time suck that needs to be better managed or our youth, and perhaps us, too, will find her minds numbed from staring at gems popping, tiles moving, virtual soldiers shooting, and farmers plowing non-existent farms. It is one trend that is growing and becoming potentially more problematic, too. Unfortunately, I also encourage it in my home. The only solution, not to do away with it entirely, but to limit time spent so that it does not become a downward spiralling addiction.

And with competition for gaming, Game Stop has emerged as a key player for finding and purchasing games. Both new and used games are available for purchase. Replayed games are good for the pocketbook, tougher on new sales. Would you rather pay $19 for Madden '08 or $50 for Madden '10? Seems obvious which one is most appealing.

Sports globalization. In 2010 we get both the Winter Olympics and World Cup, 2 global competitions. Certainly of more world interest than the USA annual events known as the Bowl Games, Super Bowl, NCAA Basketball, World Series, etc. Two global competitions in one year, but a trend past 2010, I'm not so sure.

And lastly, Piracy. A trend that has been around since music went digital years ago. As long as content costs money, folks will look for ways to get that same content for less money or nothing at all. Before digital, people went into movie theaters and illegally filmed new releases just to resell them for less. Digital copies simply makes the process less cumbersome. A trend, no; a reality, yes.

Can Leno Be Saved? Let Me Program NBC!

The Jay Leno Show at 10 pm is a failure and NBC affiliates seems to agree. "'The handwriting is on the wall,' Alan Frank, who runs two NBC stations including the affiliate in Detroit, told the trade publication Broadcasting & Cable over the weekend." Affiliates have had enough and are dropping the show for local content. Heck David Letterman failed as a daytime talk show. It shows that success in one time period does not necessarily guarantee success in another time spot.

But there is a solution for NBC that brings affiliates back and saves Jay Leno. Move The Jay Leno Show to 10 PM on Saturday night, a night most recently used to showcase repeats from the week prior. As a one night a week variety show, Jay can focus on variety acts, comedy, and monologue. In fact, make it live to show that anything is possible. A greater lead in to news and perhaps to Saturday Night Live as well. Frankly, one show a week is enough for Jay. Think Ed Sullivan and Carol Burnett and design accordingly.

And what to do with 10 pm Monday through Friday? Well there is always Law and Order until new shows are ready to premiere. Other suggestions, bring back a good western and a good family drama, and a good guest filled episodic. Get back to the roots of good television. Otherwise, we can watch NBC continue to suffer.

Kindle Doing Great; Should E-Reader and Nook Worry?

Merry Christmas and Happy Hannukah, Kindle sales seem to be the stocking stuffer as other devices lose market share. "Kindle device and book sales will total $1.6 billion for 2010. That's 5% of Amazon's total sales." Sell the device and build a store to deliver content. Amazon is emulating the Apple App Store and taking advantage of changing trends. Can Barnes and Noble and Borders survive as they have been slower to adapt.

I currently don't own a Kindle and keep waiting for a device that provides color as well as black and white content, in an easy to hold, light, and nimble device. Perhaps my hesitancy reflects others that have not become early adopters. I do believe the company that delivers this device first will ultimately win the war. I expect the Kindle folks are working furiously to build such a device so the others better hurry.

Magazines Get Ready for Tablets

Take control of your distribution and perhaps the magazine business isn't too bad. Thanks to Benjamin Franklin and the printing press, newspapers and magazines have enjoyed a couple centuries of success. But new technology has threatened to derail it and the solution is painfully clear, adapt or die. Obviously, the switch over to a pure digital play is not realistic; rather, a measured approach, reaching new adopters and maintaining print subscription with current ones. Thus any subscription must give you both a digital and print copy of your content.

As we trend toward devices that best display printed content, current opportunities exist with iPhones, Blackberries, Kindles, and of course the computer. Newer devices are on the horizon. "Although publishers have not exactly been on the cutting edge of technology, two magazines — Esquire and GQ — have developed iPhone versions, while Wired and Sports Illustrated have made mockups of tablet versions of their print editions, months before any such tablets come to market. Publishers are using the opportunity to fix their business model, too."

And Apple is lurking in the background not ready yet to release their tablet design. I look forward to seeing what they have in store for us!

367 magazines shuttered in 2009

At first blush, this decline may seem disturbing, but not unexpected. Shifting a print model to a digital one is not an easy task. At the same time though, new magazines also emerged. "... 247 magazines launched during the same period. Regional titles composed the largest category on both sides of the ledger." Also it should be noted that the pace of closure appears to be slowing down; the strong survive, the weak unfortunately die. It demonstrates though that opportunity exist even among a downturn. Print magazines need to embrace new distribution models; content remains king and eager to be consumed. New ways to get to the consumer through e-readers and iPhones may just be their salvation.

Sirius Gets a Holiday Present; Thank You iPhone

Radio is meant to be enjoyed everywhere; not just in the car, but wherever, whenever. And Apple's iPhone just may be making it possible. "From now on, every Apple iPhone will feature Sirius XM’s full internet content offerings. It will also include Howard Stern as a part of the Pocket Tunes Radio application on Apple iTunes Store." Sounds too good to be true and certainly it would be a game changer for Sirius. Next to learn, what the subscription cost will be and how it will be sold.

Not much news yet on it, so hear is hoping that it true. And if it comes to iPhone, maybe other devices will be next. Content is meant to be mobile, both video and audio, what you want, when you want, where you want.

Consumers Want Their TV Where They Want, Too!

Need a study to prove the obvious. Well here it is. Viewers want their TV content - when they want and where they want. It is the three W's - what, when, where! "The study found that younger consumers and early adopters would be particularly interested in watching local TV on their gadgets, particularly local news and weather information." They don't want to pay for it either. Local means broadcast and means access to news, weather and sports.

More screens means more time to watch and that should be good news to advertisers. Measuring usage across multiple screens is still a hot topic, but knowing that the content is valued and watched should be good news to the local broadcaster. "Broadcasters have been making noises for years about offering mobile TV, which would allow consumers to watch local TV broadcasts on their phones and handheld devices, but the technology has been slow to get off the ground... Station owners say they want to use their airwaves to offer more digital channels, including new channels for mobile gadgets." Maybe this study will push them to more quickly change and adapt.

No More Cable Bills

Check out the article in today's New York Times by Nick Bilton. He and his wife weaned himself off a monthly cable bill by installing a mac mini, Xbox, and a wireless remote. With access to Boxee, Hulu, Netflix, and others, and the ability to watch free broadcast channels, as well as gaming, his entertainment is complete. Click below to access.

"Welcome to our living room. Take a seat, make yourself comfortable. Would you like to watch a movie, or the new “Family Guy” episode?"

U-verse TV Hits 2 Million Mark

Competition is fierce and the telco vs. cable battle lines will only get fiercer. As AT&T reaches 2 M cable customers and Verizon Fios heading toward 3 million, telco is taking a bigger and bigger chunk of the map. "As of the end of September, U-verse TV was available to about 15 million homes in 22 states. The U-verse fiber-to-the-node network currently passes more than 20 million homes." And because a telco gain tends to be a cable or satellite loss, every basic subscriber matters in the fight for dominance in the industry.

Telcos need cable subs to replace loss of phone and DSL customers. For cable, phone remains a win-win upgrade, as does hi speed connections. But if the base for cable declines, as recent quarter have indicated, eventually cable will have less customers to upsell phone and hi speed to. And so the marketing of these provider services, for telco, cable, and even satellite, should only get fiercer in 2010.

In addition, Comcast particularly has to be careful as it attempts to get its NBC Universal purchase approved by the FCC and FTC. Programming differentiation has played a big part. Sports is raising its ugly head today. Telco and satellite want access to the Comcast Sports Net and cable and telco want access to the NFL Sunday Ticket. At some point, programming differentiation will become a non-factor in marketing; rather, it will be about service and price. And hopefully, better pricing and service leads to a better customer experience.

How Much Is A Video Rental Worth

When DVDs hit the market, purchase price was nearly $20. The rental market seemed an ideal opportunity to watch the movies you like at a reasonable cost. Blockbuster zoomed in at one price point and Netflix came later with a more convenient distribution strategy, straight to the mailbox and no late fees. Yet the price point stayed strong despite competition. Until now. Redbox has turned the model upside down and in turn has caused problems, both for its competitors and for the Hollywood studios themselves. Rentals for a buck.

And it has financially hurt the movie industry. "A regional economic group estimates that dollar DVD rentals from Redbox and others has cost the entertainment industry $1 billion and that the "ripple effect" will cost hundreds of millions more." Hollywood is fighting back and studios are suing to prevent Redbox from renting at this low price. In return, Redbox is suing the studios for antitrust. A long battle will ensue.

Of course low prices mean that the consumer wins. Business competition ultimately leads to better pricing and service for the customer. Can movies still be made when revenues are cut. Perhaps the cost of movie-making is what is really at stake. Does it need to cost that much money to make them. Independent filmmaking has shown the low cost, high quality movies can still be made. And so the solution for studios, cut your production costs.

As the DVD rental business faces pricing issues, what will it mean for VOD. At prices nearly 5 times higher, will consumers switch from VOD consumption to Redbox as well? Should cable be worried and do they need to re-evaluate their pricing model and their marketing message?

Redbox is a game changer in the industry and the result of the upcoming legal battle could have broader implications. $1 to rent verse $5 to watch VOD; in today's economy, the answer is pretty obvious.

Americans Still Watch 99% Of Video On TVs: Nielsen

How would you prefer to watch your video. Currently it is the big screen; in fact, that is how 99% of us prefer to watch. "Nevertheless, video consumption among Web and DVR users is growing fast: On a monthly basis, minutes spent watching Internet video watching increased 35% in the third quarter and time-shifted TV viewing jumped 21%."

Why is online important. There are a number of reasons: 1. More offerings - in fact beyond the ability to catch up on current TV shows, there are shows that are no longer on TV or VOD that people seek out to watch. And for those looking beyond mainstream, alternative and short form programming exists only in this spectrum. 2. Search - ever try finding a program by hunting and pecking on VOD or searching a cable TV guide. It is horrific compared to the ease and flexibility of online. 3. Mobility - sometimes you can't get to a TV; how great that the TV can get to you. 4. Flexibility - think DVR and VOD to the nth level. Online lets you both find a show and go to a time spot in the show. Try fast forwarding VOD and ask yourselves why do I need to waste 5 minutes to move ahead to the 1 hour 10 minute mark. 5. Simple - try navigating the on demand platform and you wish it was simpler, faster, and better than what exists online. It's hard to sell cable as "advanced" when its functionality is so 10 years old.

So don't be too fooled by the percentages. Clearly TV is the dominant viewing experience, but online is not going away. Rather, it is only getting more convenient and user-friendly. It is time, however, for the cable box and its functionality, to emulate the online experience.

Eventually Nothing Free On The Web

The web has been a valuable tool. Need information for a school project, search the web for free. The result - the end of Encyclopedia sales. Want to listen to music or purchase an album - result - the closing of music stores like Tower Records and HMV. And seeking articles on news and current events or perhaps just a little gossip - result - the collapse of magazines and newspapers.

Well the last group is fighting back. "Consumers will soon have to start paying for news and entertainment they have become used to getting for free on the Web as media firms face the reality that advertising can no longer foot the bill." And Google, with a need to keep their suppliers happy, may help. "Web search leader Google has promised publishers ways of earning advertising revenue alongside news stories, but most big news organizations scoff at the idea that such ads are enough to fund the production of quality journalism." Is it enough?

Search is a funny game and Google, while the current leader, isn't the only game in town. Will Bing, Yahoo, and others follow or will they revolt and find alternative ways to give consumers the search results they need. Or will we eventually move down that slippery slope and find ourselves getting only a couple of lines from an article before being force to "subscribe" in order to see the rest of the story. It seems to be working for The Wall Street Journal" and Murdoch may force this move on its other media properties. Or be proven a genius and others will follow.

Can Sony Bounce Back?

Can Sony become the innovative leader again. Consumers once turned to Sony for its Walkman, Handycam, and other products and the Sony brand was synonymous with technological superiority and top of the line product. Sony indeed produces a very expensive HD TV set, but it is losing share quickly to other rivals that are bringing lower price and innovation into the home. So what is Sony to do?

"Sony’s chief executive, Howard Stringer, has a grand idea: an all-in-one online network that pipes Sony’s films, music, games and other content to its TVs, Walkmans and PlayStation game machines." But isn't Apple already doing this? What's so great and different about this. Stringer has been there for a while but each of its product line is losing quickly to others. Playstation to Wii and X Box, Walkman have already lost the battle to ipods, and LCD TV to Vizio and LG, and Handycam to Cisco's acquisition of the flip.

Sony has much more to worry about! Connectivity is great, but consumers are not using Sony products. It's time for some innovation and state of the art products to regain market share.

NBC To Have A New Owner

Vivendi is out, Comcast is in. "Comcast Corp. agreed to take majority ownership of NBC Universal from General Electric Corp. in a complex deal valued at more than $30 billion, ending the conglomerate's more than two-decade rule over the peacock network and satisfying the cable giant's push to own more content."

I remember when RCA owned NBC and when it was sold to GE, Dave Letterman tried unsuccessfully to deliver a gift basket welcoming his new owners. Not well received by GE but certainly great television. That awkward relationship between the NBC and GE has remained ever since, with creativity often hitting a wall with Six Sigma. So an era is finally ending and another one is poised to begin. Should all the legal issues be resolved, Comcast will be the next owner of NBC.

So what does it mean for the broadcast entity and its library of cable networks? Will Bravo, USA, et al become the favorite kids while NBC, the broadcast channel and its affiliated stations around the country, are treated more as Cinderella was to her step mother? Will they simply be cast aside or embraced? Certainly the NBC Sports entity has value as a competitive product to ESPN, but what of the news division? And how can Comcast the distributor of cable, telco, and hi speed partner with ESPN on one side of its business and compete with them on another? I'm sure Disney-ESPN, Verizon, AT&T, and other companies as well as the FCC will have lots to say about this sale as well.

Change is coming but how it shakes out is far, far from over!

Rent or Buy, You Tube Goes After iTunes

Would you rather pay $2 to download and own content or pay $2 to simply stream and rent it. That seems to be the choice that You Tube is bringing to the public. Free content works for only so long and on-line advertising revenue alone isn't enough to support the venture. So next step for You Tube, on-line rental. "Google is talking to networks about a pay-per-episode plan that would put it in direct competition with similar offerings from Apple's iTunes and Amazon, according to MediaMemo, an industry blog that first reported the talks." For Google, it's another opportunity to build a revenue model. For Apple and Amazon, it should only remind them that other competitors are out there ready to strike. Hulu and Fancast might just be next.

Certainly, Google has the deep pockets to test the water and doesn't think logic should get in the way of a potential revenue stream. Will it pay off; probably not but then the next step will be to convert from stream to download or monthly subscription. And this could lead to some nice competition and perhaps lower pricing in the long run for the consumer.

"I'm Outa Here"; Vivendi Agrees to Sell NBC

Money talks and Vivendi walks! GE found the number that Vivendi took to sell its 20% back to GE and opening up round two, a majority stake to Comcast. "Under terms of the deal, G.E. will buy Vivendi’s 20 percent stake in NBC Universal for about $5.8 billion. It removes one of the few remaining hurdles in its plan to sell control of the television and movie company to Comcast in a $30 billion agreement that reflects the changing landscape of broadcast television." But what does it mean for NBC. Is it a good thing having a cable distributor as your owner or is it simply "out of the frying pan and into the fire." Business can take many funny turns.

A potential sale of NBC to Comcast will not be an easy one and will come with many hurdles. Expect FCC scrutiny and perhaps a number of lawsuits from other distributors and programmers weighing in on unfair competition. I suspect that a sale will also result in a dismantling of NBC properties. While the cable nets and movie studio are highly valued by Comcast, it is hard to believe that they want to involve themselves in its other businesses, namely broadcast and theme parks. In order to get this deal approved, promises might have to be made to spin off these businesses into a separately traded company. Comcast gets what they want and NBC Network becomes a standalone company.