What Will You Do Without Viacom Channels?

This negotiation has most likely been going on for a while, but as contracts expire and deadlines are reached, it has left the board room and reached the ears of the public. Time Warner and Viacom, owners of Nickelodeon, Comedy Central, and others, have reached an impasse where there are no winners. Each has solid points and each has big issues to overcome in a changing entertainment landscape.

For Time Warner, it means controlling costs, when customers are able to downgrade or leave for other programming providers like the telcos and satellite. As programming cannot be made exclusive to a particular provider, it provides little competitive benefit in the marketplace. At the same time, customers have shown more preference for hi speed web access and are able to get some of this disputed programming streamed to their PCs, whether they receive the linear channel or not. For Viacom, it is the need to grow revenue to offset the higher costs or original programming. A show tends to be cheaper in its first few years until it gets an audience; the power than switches to the show who is able to command higher costs for its talent and staff. And as linear advertising has flattened and in some cases declined, revenue needs to be made up in other ways. It won't all come from the internet so cable subscription remains an important opportunity. Why is Viacom publicly fighting this battle; take a look at their recent stock price and it is clear they need leverage on their side to get an agreement signed.

So what is the Time Warner consumer to do. In the long run, the choice is to switch to another provider if neither party comes to an agreement. These disagreements eventually always get resolved and programming is restored. In the short run, there are some options: for kid programs, start DVRing your favorite shows. For my kids, we have numerous Nick shows recorded for viewing. As most aren't expecting new episodes for a while, we are comfortable with repeat viewing of our shows. Or go to their websites for games, episodes, and other things to do. For Daily Show and Colbert Report fans, the internet will be the way to go. Hulu is always a popular option. Don't be surprised if some illegal peer to peer sites come up offering downloads of shows. Or you could invest in a Slingbox and put it in a family or friend's home where they are on a different cable company. Or even buy the DVDs of favorite series. As you can see, there are alternatives.

So enjoy your last hours of these networks, I expect a long battle.

It's Time For An Apple Tablet: Where's My iPod Touch HD?

Everyone has an idea for Apple. But with no major announcements scheduled for Macworld next month, and Steve Jobs not planning to give the opening remarks, it is unlikely to expect big news. Still, this writer, like me, has hopes for Apple; especially if it is a small device that works with the iTunes and iPhone platform, and is capable of accessing the web and downloading content. I'm ready for an eReader device from Apple, but this article wants a device to do it all - "Listening to music, watching videos, surfing the Web, reading e-books and Instapaper articles, playing games, writing blog posts, etc. " I don't need the first two on his list, but the others suit me just fine. Make it about the size of a book, thinner and lighter, and price it competitively, and I am first in line. "Apple's multi-touch, lightweight edition of OS X, iTunes sync, and App Store are exclusive. And they're exactly how to make a tablet computer work. So when can we buy ours?" Where do I stand?

Broadcast Advertising Still Works

Despite the recession, people are still watching TV. And while cable and the internet has done much to fragment audience share, broadcast television still remains a dominate landing point for content. Ratings may have declined, but large numbers are still there and advertisers continue to spend to reach these viewers. "Mr. Magel of Initiative said, 'Broadcast television may be losing ratings, but there is no other medium that has been able to supplant it in a big enough way to negatively impact it at this point.'”

CBS has done the best job, with minimal loss of audience compared to the other networks. They have invested in scripted programming and are seeing audiences come to them. They will also benefit in the after market, as they can syndicate this programming on other networks and on the web. Not as easy to do when your entire prime time is devoted to reality shows.

In general, broadcast networks also have the advantage of their size to diversify, some doing better than others. Investments by the big four include cable ownership as well as web sites. Fox even believes in social networking, investing in My Space. As the broadcast networks recognize their diversified portfolios in the aggregate and begin to sell advertising solutions across these platforms, they will become even larger and financially better off. It will be this synergy that will take broadcast companies to the next level.

Cisco Systems Is Starting a Push Into Home Electronics

What percentage of homes are wireless? Beyond connecting a laptop to the web or printer, what percentage of wireless homes, are listening to music, watching videos, and sharing content around their home? A much smaller number I am sure. Most people are not computer literate enough to do more than plug and play. Unless it is that easy, it will need the geek squad and other experts to set up. Heck, even today, most people buy an HD TV and have trouble connecting it properly to their set top box to get the best experience. My brother in law in fact had his TV set on an expanded screen set up and was missing out on the whole picture!

So Cisco is entering the consumer electronics field. "Cisco is working on other gadgets that will let people watch Internet video on their televisions more easily. And its biggest bet is that people will want to use a version of its corporate videoconferencing system called Telepresence to chat with their friends over their high-definition televisions." While I like that they want to help move music wirelessly around the house, how it interfaces with current digital players may be an uphill challenge. And I can tell you that when the phone rings, it is not often when my kids want to interrupt their TV viewing so I can see who I am talking to. In fact, I like to multi task, watching TV and talking on the phone simultaneously. I am not sure I want to always be seen and heard. Still, there are a couple times when a consumer video conference tool could work, talking with the grandparents comes to mind. But computers already offer the ability to video chat so Cisco may simply be late to the game.

For Cisco to succeed, they must figure out a way to work effortlessly with existing products and demonstrate how they can interconnect devices effortlessly so the consumer can easily enjoy the convenience. Their greatest opportunity is through their Scientific Atlanta division, makers of set top boxes. Adapting these devices to be more more user friendly and useful would be the best first step.

Online Piracy Menaces Pro Sports

Even with football upsets and head coach firings, fans love their sports. But as ticket prices rise, games are limited to specific markets, but audiences mobility continues to widen, sports cannot comprehend how to reach their fans. An out of market fan has few choices to watch a favorite team, while others in market get the same game for free. "The game between the Baltimore Ravens and Dallas Cowboys was pivotal in determining playoff teams, and it was the last home game ever for the Cowboys before they move to a new stadium. But because of a long-lasting feud between the NFL Network and many cable companies, many millions of fans could not watch the game on television. Yet they could watch any number of illicit live streams on the Internet."

Streaming is no longer limited to music or movies, but to live sports events as well. "After years of focusing on the pirating of highlight clips and photos on the Web, the major professional sports leagues are finding that pirated feeds of live games are now common and becoming a menace to their businesses, especially at a time when leagues are trying to build their own businesses offering live games on the Internet for a subscription fee."

The choice is clear, keep fighting this hard to win battle to stop illegal feeds or embrace the opportunity. Those reaching out to find these feeds are not current viewers of your games; they are highly motivated fans seeking new options to fill their enjoyment. Slingbox was one means to watch TV from one market when you are residing in another. Pandora's box is already open. If professional sports would bypass subscription revenue for a measurable higher volume audience that can be monetized via advertising means: commercials, overlays, interactive offerings, etc., they could potentially bring a bigger return. Obviously the day will come when these internet signals can be moved to the HD screen in the family room, but until they are why not capitalize on the interest.

Predicting Digital Disaster

As the digital transition approaches, if February 17 is still the date, predictions are that at least 3 million people will not get a converter box to continue to receive TV broadcast signals. Instead they will choose to give up TV. With broadcast ratings dropping because both cable networks and internet usage are rising, advertising dollars will be further redistributed as well. Hurtful to broadcast, helpful to these other distribution outlets.

"Nationally, more than 9 million people who currently receive over-the-air TV will lose at least one of the major broadcasting networks, according to David Klein, executive vice president of Centris." A quote I simply don't understand. Once the digital switch occurs, every broadcast channel will be effected. While some low power stations have a bit more time to transition, all national broadcast local affiliates will be affected. There will be no broadcast analog signal to watch. Mobile TV sets, throw them away, no more tailgating with these babies. And digital signals are harder to acquire, more easily interrupted by mountains, trees, buildings, etc. Just try listening to Sirius Radio in my neighborhood where this interference is a key problem. It may be no better for digital TV reception, even with a converter.

If cable television is available, it may be an alternative, even if it is just to receive broadcast basic channels. If IBM's project with power companies to offer TV signals through power lines keep moving forward, another alternative is available. And of course Direct TV and Dish is still out there too. But as the article suggests, some may simply turn off their TVs. The internet may be enough for them to provide video of the shows they really want to watch. If we see DSL subscriptions rise, then we will have gotten our answer.

Look Out, Amazon: iPhone Gets Real E-Books

Lets face it, the iPhone and iPod are not the best devices for reading books, newspapers, or magazines. Heck, the screen is too small to be a real game device either, but it does offer those apps too. What it does indicate to Apple is that they are positioned to bring an "iReader" to the marketplace, using the iTunes store to download print material across devices. Allowing its owner the flexibility to move a purchased subscription or book to one device and move it effortlessly to other devices that we own, would be the ultimate in convenience and usability.

And with Kindle slow to market with its next generation device, the timing is impeccable for Apple to announce at Macworld that they are selling their own reader. With the iTune store already in place, and consumer appetite growing for digital reading, Apple should be reading the signals. The iPhone is not the device to use "for serious readers -- the screen is small, the battery life is iffy, etc. But we could see book snackers reading a chapter a day or so -- or a magazine, or travel guidebook, or reference materials -- on their phone or iPod touch." But it is an opportunity to create a competing reader and make the content accessible across its various devices.

Until then, "there's plenty of e-books for the iPhone already, ScrollMotion has two advantages over its rivals: A gorgeous, feature-filled e-reader app called Iceberg and deals with several major publishers, including Random House, Simon and Schuster, Houghton Mifflin, Penguin, and Hachette." Nice!

SAG Postpones Strike Authorization Vote

It may be only a 2 week delay, but it indicates that the SAG may realize a change of strategy might be needed. "In response to a growing chorus of members who say a strike would be ill-timed given the current economic crisis, the leaders of the Screen Actors Guild have decided to postpone a planned strike-authorization vote by two weeks." What they learn over this time is unclear, but perhaps it may allow them to recognize that if a strike vote doesn't pass, their legitimacy as a union may be point into question.

As the TV union AFTRA has approved their contract, SAG may feel that their demands may be unreasonable. With many actors voicing opinions against their own union, SAG management may be using this time to assure they have the votes to succeed. If it becomes clear that they don't, I suspect, the strike vote will be further delayed or called off so as to save face. The economy is not improving, broadcast networks are creating less new content, movie audiences are declining, and acting jobs are harder to find. A SAG strike will not help them as AFTRA jobs will supplant them.

Don't be surprised to see them come to agreement with AMPTP or at least call off this vote.

In Move to Digital TV, Confusion Is in the Air

D-Day, less than 2 months away and confusion over digital transition still reigns. Many with antenna still haven't added a converter box to assure clear reception of their broadcast channels. Many with cable TV subscriptions still have TVs in their house not connected. And some cable homeowners inaccurately believe that every TV set connected by a cable wire, also needs a cable box.

Some research indicate that almost 10% of the country will be without TV signals on February 18. With a recession in our midst, the weather cold, timing seems off to stay firm to this date. "The fear is that those Americans least likely to understand or afford the transition — such as the poor, the elderly and the non-English speaking — will be most affected." And so, let it be noted that this deadline will not be met and that consumers will be given more time to understand how this digital transition will affect them and have more time to convert.

Cable is not helping, as they move channels from a non-scrambled position (normally channels 2-98) to one that requires a cable converter of its own to receive channels. For those Tivo users that connect direct to the wire, channels will be lost unless your TV has a cable card or you add a converter box and jury rig the Tivo to change converter box channels. Not ideal! And so, "... the cable TV industry has agreed not to switch some of its channels to a digital tier until March 1, to avoid further confusing consumers about the broadcast switch." Wow, 2 whole weeks; not much help truthfully. It is looking like a mess and needs more leadership and common sense to right this ship.

Extinction-Level Television Event

This is a must read editorial by Alan Sepinwall in the NY Times. Sepinwall, a television critic for the Star Ledger, has a keen sense of the direction that broadcast TV is taking. I too miss the quality dramas that once filled prime time. But as broadcast begat cable TV, broadcast is now acting more and more like cable children. This downward spiral begs the question, with nothing to watch on broadcast today, what will cable TV have in the next 10 years to fill its air waves. If it's user generated videos, I'm gone.

The article is copied below:

I’M a runt of Generation X, which means 1) I’m supposed to define myself entirely through ironic references to pop culture, and 2) as a member of the last generation to come of age in an era of only three TV networks, I assume everyone will understand when I drop a quote from “Scooby-Doo” or “The A-Team.”

But the generation immediately after mine has never known life without cable, and the generation after that won’t know a life without streaming video. Having only three TV channels to watch must sound as quaint to them as radio plays do to me. Today’s entertainment universe provides endless variety for every demographic and taste, and the things that everyone actually wants to watch together are few and far between.

That’s what makes NBC’s decision to surrender its weekday 10 p.m. timeslot to a new Jay Leno talk show as inevitable as it is sad.

NBC at 10 p.m. was once the birthplace of dramas like “Hill Street Blues,” “St. Elsewhere, ” “L.A. Law, ” “Law & Order,” “Homicide: Life on the Street" and “E.R.” These were groundbreaking shows and, for the most part, mass successes — the kind of hits that plenty of people at any school or office would be able and eager to talk about. Now, because the expanding television universe is shrinking individual audiences, and because NBC has shown depraved indifference to the idea of program development for the last decade, the network has no better option for the hour than moving Jay Leno from late night to prime time.

Next fall, when Mr. Leno assumes his new timeslot, NBC will continue to schedule football on Sunday nights and repeats on Saturdays. That leaves only 10 prime-time hours for original programming, and knowing the way NBC operates these days, at least four of those will likely go to super-sized editions of “The Biggest Loser” and “Deal or No Deal.”

This reminds me of a joke Tina Fey told at the Television Critics Association awards ceremony. She thanked us “for making ‘30 Rock’ the most successful cable show on broadcast television,” and added: “Oh, it’s a great time to be on broadcast television, isn’t it? It’s exciting! It’s like being in vaudeville in the ’60s!”

We all laughed, but it was the sort of laughter designed to fight off tears, you know? The big networks have all been trending inexorably downward for years. Shows that pulled in an audience of 20 million or more viewers only a couple of years ago are now happy with numbers in the mid-to-high teens, and the acceptable slice of the demographic pie is getting ever narrower. (Expect a press release someday soon boasting that a reality show won its timeslot among redheaded girls ages 11 to 11 ½.)

As the audience shrinks and the networks increasingly program for niches instead of the general public, they resemble cable channels more and more.

There’s a lot to be said for the cable model, where lowered expectations and a smaller inventory of original programming has led to instant classics like “The Wire,” “The Shield” and “Mad Men.” But while “Mad Men” is a wonderful show, it gets two million viewers when the winds are calm and the planets are aligned. It’s in no danger of becoming such a big hit that people at the post office will laugh at your Freddy Rumsen impression.

We’ve been heading to this point for decades, long before NBC picked Conan O’Brien to take over “The Tonight Show,” even before Jay Leno was chosen to succeed Johnny Carson.

In the late ’80s, Fox recognized the financial advantages to looking like a network without being one: the fledgling channel deliberately didn’t program the 10 o’clock hour because that would have made it, under the F.C.C.’s definition at the time, a broadcast network and subjected to much stricter regulations. (Back then, Fox couldn’t have owned its own shows, for instance.)

The F.C.C. has since relaxed those rules, and Fox is now technically a network. But the very concept of a network has lost much of its meaning.

Of course, the networks still do good work — even in its end-of-empire days, NBC has given us “30 Rock,” “The Office” and the deliriously funny “Chuck” — and on occasions like the Super Bowl or an “American Idol” finale, they even bring in big ratings that evoke the good old days of a mass medium for a mass audience. But several generations now think of NBC, ABC, CBS and Fox as just four channels in a 500-channel spectrum. Really, the only thing that distinguishes them from the cable channels is that they still try, most nights, to be broadcasters, generalists in an age of specialization.

To use a pop culture metaphor that everyone should (I hope) understand, the networks are Wile E. Coyote running off a cliff. So long as they pump their legs and assume there’s solid ground beneath their feet, they get to keep moving. But as soon as one of them gives up and looks at where it is, as NBC has with the Jay Leno deal, there’s nowhere to go but way, way down.

Digital Media - Local Becoming Personal

It is not enough to be local anymore. Sure it's nice that a website can capture your zip code and demographics and provide potentially locally relevant content and ads. But for content and advertising to be most effective and efficient. It must be able to understand the users' interests, needs, and wants as well. Let me give a few examples:

1. Your zip code may tell you that you live in the NYC metro, but it doesn't tell where you are going. Learning that you are seeking weather information in Southern Florida could lead to multiple relevant info to be pushed to your screen including airline and rental car information, dining and tourist suggestions, and packing tips including buying sunscreen, new bathing suit etc.

2. Searching for information on having a baby might just bring up information on buying a minivan for a new family. And once you've perhaps made a minivan purchase, that content would shift to service, after market devices for the car, or perhaps car information for a smaller second car.

3. Lastly, local news may not be relevant to you. Living in the market doesn't necessarily mean you care for the local info from that market. As an out of market sports fan, I would prefer to receive sports information for my teams and not just the area sport teams. I may live in NJ and prefer that any news only include NYC and NJ and exclude Westchester and Long Island. The content must be customized for my interests.

Websites are moving in that direction. As you search on iTunes or Amazon, you are presented with options and recommendations that may be of interest to you. It is becoming clear that all media content and advertising must continue to be personalized for the users' experience. Assuming that all local is relevant may be missing valuable opportunities to effectively reach them with information and messaging that will be of interest to them. We cannot continue to inundate the user with messages that may not be of interest to them. Too many non relevant messages cause us to turn off entirely and not see anything. Staying personal to the needs of the user will make the interaction, whether it is through the TV, web, or mobile phone, more valuable and more effective.

Stars send anti-strike letter to SAG

Finally some dissension in the ranks as some notable actors try to bring a rational voice to the discussion. Recognizing how bad the economy is, they are urging their fellow actors to call off the strike vote which is scheduled for January 2. If SAG thinks that a strike authorization vote will give them more leverage and legitimacy at the negotiation table, then they are poorly mistaken. The writers strike hurt everyone; AFTRA, the other acting union, has an agreement, as do the DGA and other unions. SAG is not about to get a better deal. And as the current economic situation is proven, it is still about pennies and not dollars. Arguing over distribution models that aren't yet proven is not seeing the forest through the trees. yes, distribution of content is changing; but, it means negotiating a shorter agreement till a winning economic model emerges. "'None of our friends in the other unions are truly happy with the deals they made in their negotiations,' the missive said. 'Three years from now all the union contracts will be up again at roughly the same time. At that point if we plan and work together with our sister unions we will have incredible leverage.'" Now that is the voice of reason.

Pew: Most Will Access Internet Via Mobile By 2020

Our cell phones have become our mobile computers. Sure, we can still make calls with them, but they are our lifeline to content - information and entertainment. Feel lost when our cell phone has lost power, or worse still, we left it behind. Today, our cellphone takes pictures, plays our songs, locates where we are going, and gets us scores, stock prices, Facebook updates, and tons of other information. The more we use it, the more valuable it becomes.

And so the Pew Research does not surprise many. "Wireless devices will be the primary means of connecting to the Internet for most people worldwide in 2020, according to a new report by the Pew Internet & American Life Project." In fact, it is more likely to occur far sooner.

What is next for the cell phone is easy to predict: convergence. "Others believe the limitations of the mobile screen will remain a barrier to wider types of use. According to Hal Varian, chief economist at Google: 'The big problem with the cell phone is the UI (user interface), particularly on the data side. We are waiting for a breakthrough.'"

Apple's iPhone has already brought a better UI to the masses and more innovation should be on its way. What I expect is that the cell phone must more easily "talk" to the PC and TV. Watch an ad on TV or PC or mobile screen and interact with it through your phone. Capture a coupon to virtually bring to your supermarket. Get the closest car dealership to your GPS location. Play games between your mobile screen and the PC or TV. Vote, collect a recipe, share a show with a friend.

Advertising is moving toward more interactive capability. Add to that the mobility of the cell phone and let these devices interact with one another. Who needs a TV remote when your cell phone is by your side. Yes, we want to use the phone to access the internet, but we also want the phone to interact with the other devices in our lives!

Entertainment Weekly Considering Going Online-Only?

How can a weekly entertainment magazine compete when its information is being seen and consumed on a daily basis online. And while subscription may have dropped in 2008, EW says publicly that they have no plans to drop their print edition. The challenge is that subscriptions will continue to drop as their consumers stop renewing. In fact their audience seems to prefer consuming their content on the web, as their traffic their actually grows. Consumers may enjoy the content that EW offers, but their consumption patterns are changing and so must EW.

First, stopping a print subscription does not necessarily mean stopping a digital subscription. Using digital readers like Kindle and Sony will save printing costs. perhaps consider bundling your subscription with others in your family of "magazines" and offer a free reader with a 2 year subscription to three digital mags of the consumers' choice. Bundling has worked for the cable industry, it might just work for digital magazines.

Otherwise, the path seems clear. EW, like the Christian Science Monitor before it and others soon after, will be announcing the end of their magazine subscription. With online competition from its own web site as well as others like Perez Hilton and TMZ, delivering the latest entertainment news on demand, technology is killing the print edition.

CBS May Drop Affiliate TV Stations, Les Moonves Says

While Marketwatch didn't quote Les Moonves directly, this is a CBS site and it makes the news much more credible. The comment reads "that in 10 years, CBS may no longer have traditional affiliated TV stations, but could offer its feed straight to cable and satellite operators. For now, however, the network has contracts with local stations that are binding for several years." But is 10 years too soon or too long. Today, the networks are having a hard time filling their current air time. To be responsible for 24/7 programming may be a bigger financial issue than they can already afford. NBC has already announced that they are replacing 5 hours of prime time programming with Jay Leno. How would they fill the off prime hours, too?

Technology has changed the game. Already we are seeing local affiliate news teams dismiss anchors, reporters, and staff to remain lean and mean. Cable distribution will enable local advertising breaks and access to interactive applications. Local affiliates may have to either combine into more regional than local nets or morph into stand alone networks. For WCBS and others, it means negotiating a separate channel on the cable line-up from the CBS national feed.

It seems that localism is losing to regionalism. Cable companies are closing local offices to compete more regionally against their distribution rivals. Other companies are also consolidating operations to handle more activities with less labor. Technology has had a hand in this too. Need support, your phone call to a company support desk might just be handle across the continent. Where local once mattered as a competitive distinction, cost efficiencies mean regional or even global matters more. For the local TV station, Les Moonves may just be right and their days are numbered.

Actors Union Urges Members to Approve Strike Authorization

Strike, strike, strike. Is it just talk or is it a serious threat? Yes, people are watching the web; Comscore just released its latest metrics and they show huge year over year growth. Hulu has jumped up to 6th place and average usage per viewer has increased. But advertising revenue is dropping and online media has been difficult to fully monetize. As Jeff Zucker has said that he fears they are turning TV dollars into digital pennies. The unions are fighting for a bigger share of the digital world when they are ignoring the fact that their bread and butter revenue is drying up more quickly. "Bill Ratner, a voice-over actor who records commercials and teasers for television programs, said he will vote against authorization “partly because of the economy” and also because not enough is known about the value of online programming." Instead of following the trend, SAG needs to look at the aggregate of usage, regardless of where the content is being consumed. Take a percentage of the whole revenue, not a percentage of each distribution piece; otherwise, they will find themselves on a wild goose chase.

Back to a potential strike, with so many layoffs being announced, cities in economic hardship, and company's revenue down, now is not the time to strike. It may be an idle threat, but if it becomes reality, it will be the final straw. NBC is already reacting to the high costs of TV programming; with the announcement of Jay Leno taking 5 hours of prime time programming, they have reduced their costs tremendously. Talk shows pay very little. Inexpensive programming that can be repurposed cheaply for the web. That is how NBC will beat SAG. Add more game shows and reality programming and the unions will be fighting for non-existent jobs. And as for the movies, independent films, foreign films, and non SAG productions will find consumption. You may kill movie theater business, but viewers will find it on the web and push it to their TV.

Prime Time on NBC is Changing - Can It Work?

Imagine this scenario: The writer's strike stopped production of broadcast content, TV advertising revenue, like other media is down, and forecasts are for more decline. The actors union is threatening to strike which would shut production again. Costs are going up and revenue is going down. With NBC, repeats haven't been working, new shows haven't been working, old shows are getting more expensive to produce and are seeing their audience declines. Solution, talk show programming weekdays on prime time!

When the announcement was made that Jay Leno was being taken off the Tonight Show to be replaced by Conan O'Brien, the speculation was where Leno was going. To ABC to compete against his former show? Or to Fox (which has had a lousy history with talk shows - remember Joan Rivers and Chevy Chase). Well today's announcement by NBC essentially kills two birds with one stone. They keep Leno and they fill the primetime with cheap programming. "Interesting how this news comes right after NBC Universal chief Jeff Zucker told an investors conference today that he's considering cutting the number of hours and even the number of nights that the network airs programming. Since The Tonight Show is a cash cow, Zucker no doubt figures that Leno at 10 PM could be another."

But can a talk show/variety show work on prime time, 5 days a week? I personally am a fan of seeing a variety show come back to prime time. And while Rosie Live was a fiasco, a polarizing host with frenetic pacing, the concept has potential. But it is not a five night a week show, nor should it be a talk show. Five nights will kill this experiment....FAST. And what will it do to a Conan hosted Tonight Show? I'm afraid, it will be viewed as competition and could actually kill the Tonight Show franchise once and for all.

Let me propose to NBC how this show should be developed. First, pick one night. Second, move it to the family hour - 8pm. Next, relocate the show to Vegas to utilize a different talent base. While some of Jays bits should transfer, the new local provides an endless resource of Vegas talent to draw from as well as tourists to make fun of. You also benefit by getting audiences interested in attending the show. Live or taped, your call, the viewer won't object to either. Lastly, make Jay more the master of Ceremonies and less the centerpiece. One bit a show is fine but the remainder should be the acts onstage. These changes will provide you with an inexpensive program, a greater chance of ratings success, and won't damage the Tonight Show brand.

Don't follow this advice and lets count how many shows air before this 10pm fiasco fades to distant memory.

Once Something Is Free, It Is Hard To Start Charging A Subscription

Free samples have proven a great marketing tool to get customers to try something before they buy it. But in the case of online content, when content has been given and consumed for free, it is hard to convince the user to start to pay a subscription fee, even with the incentive of no advertising. Perhaps it is that the consumer has got hardened to the fact that there is always advertising. And in most cases, even with a subscription (newspaper, magazine, cable TV, etc.), there is both subscription AND advertising.

In the case of Facebook looking to offer a premium subscription model, ad free, a paltry 2.4% would be willing to pay about $40 a year. There is some elasticity in the model. As the proposed price point is reduced 25%, another 2% would be likely to pay. And likely to pay and actually buying a premium subscription is most likely much lower than that. Linked In has tried a premium model as well, offering additional services and better information for a fee. Whether they are successful or not, only they can tell us.

Still this was an interesting study by Ad Age. In the case of the internet, the revenue is still in authorizing the connection to the web. The cat seems out of the bag to try and convert free content into paid content. With barriers of entry onto the web so low, anyone can author a website and deliver content, content can be copied and share easily, and free content has become the status quo. Today, it seems that advertising and e-commerce are the best way to produce revenue.

Magazines Rethink Strategies to Deal With Economy

Magazines should not be the only type of content companies to rethink their strategies. This same retrenchment will affect all media outlets: newspapers, radio, TV, film, etc. "A perfect storm of sectoral pressures (rising paper and printing costs, plateauing circulation across most titles) and the broader economy’s woes have swallowed profits and revenues..." This statement is relevant to every outlet that relies on either subscription or advertising or both. But it is not just today's economy that is to blame, changing technologies and environmental issues add to these economic woes.

There is good news. We are consumers on content. There is an infinite appetite to consume and a need to be entertained, interested, informed, and educated. We may change our consuming habits but those companies that read the trends will adapt to reach these new behaviors. It may be timing and a little bit of luck, combined with good strategic thinking and tactical solutions.

Economic Turmoil As These Doors Close, Which Ones Will Open?

I consider myself a very optimistic person. As I watch our economy deal with a recession, it comes with many costs. And unfortunately the list of layoffs keeps getting longer:
AT&T - 12,000 workers
Motorola - 3000
Viacom - 850
Adobe - 600
NBC - 500
Comcast - 300
Ticketmaster - 300

And more announcements will come very shortly.

It has already affected consumer spending and retail is facing it head on. Bankruptcy is touching Linen and Things, Circuit City, Bally's, and perhaps soon one or more auto manufacturers.

I am empathetic to those affected by this retrenchment. Change does not always mean growth; sometimes it requires a step backwards before driving ahead. But I remain optimistic, even as this list is sure to expand, that the economy, and us as individuals, will be stronger and healthier in the long run. I remain optimistic that even as one door closes, another opens.

Cable - If You Can't Join Em, Beat Em!

Two interesting articles in today's New York Times. On one page an article headed, Who Needs a TV? I’m Watching on a Laptop, and on the next page, another article, YouTube and Hulu Visit the Living Room. The first highlights the fact that with video at you fingertips on the PC, you get what you want, when you want it, where you want it, and with limited commercial interruptions. The main limitations remain sports and newer movies today, but that is a short term problem that will be solved.

The second article should scare cable operators and linear networks even more. What is interesting about the article is not either Hulu or You Tube; rather, the device to connect these services to HD TV sets. "The Neuros Link is a device that connects to a television via an HDMI cable and can stream Web video to any HD display. The device requires a broadband connection and little else: there is no subscription fee, because the device brings in free content from the Internet." Now you have your streaming content and see it on a big screen Hi Def TV set.

So what saves the operator - making the set top box more ergonomic and flexible than it is today. Add a web connection, add interfaces to the Wii and PS3 for direct downloading, add Tivo, and move its functionality to a remote control that is easier to use and simpler to work. Save networks by enabling interactive advertising across all video so that it recognizes brands and connects to relevant content.It is time to think "outside the box"!

Are There Too Many Content Choices - Condé Nast Pulls Plug on Properties

Classic business lifecycle means that when products and services move from segmentation to fragmentation, then customer shares get smaller and smaller. Over time, these fragments can no longer sustain their business model and must get acquired or disappear. Look at any industry, any product line, and eventually, because of internal, technological, environmental, and other factors, consolidation eventually occurs and the fragments return into viable segments. Need some examples, how about the auto industry today, Accounting companies, Banks, and yes even content.

Condé Nast is shutting down sites and others will follow. If they can't adequately create a business model that will become profitable, the brands must adapt or die. What surprises me today is that TV networks have yet to see much consolidation. Currently, I would describe the number of cable networks as highly fragmented. If history is a guide, then it cannot sustain itself and reductions must occur. Initially, I expect some brand extensions to reduce back to its parent network. If the network's niche cannot sustain a positive cash flow, the network may need to go dark. In addition, alternate ways to view content, via VOD and the web, may limit available content on these extension brands. Lastly, declining ad revenue means that their is less money to support too many networks. This will filter down to ultimately affect a networks' longevity.

Networks need to own their content and all its distribution platforms. Those that rely on buying rights better buy all the rights, domestic and international, streaming, VOD, etc. Otherwise, it may lose its audience share and ultimately its value to the consumer. Streamlining the business model will become the next step. It's what the auto industry is facing today and what content companies are starting to experience.

Most People Don't Watch Web Video For More Than 60 Seconds

We tend to have short attention spans. If we don't like what we are watching immediately, we are quick to turn it off. Technology has put controls on the tip of our fingers and we tend to keep our finger on the button all the time. Add to that the infinite choice available on the PC and we are unlikely to watch more than a few minutes before stopping. "After clicking play, viewers only watch to the end of 5-minute long Web videos about 10% of the time. Only 16% make it through three minutes, Web video services provider TubeMogul reports, after measuring 23 million streams on six top video sites over two weeks."

Given that the PC lets us multitask, it is hard to devote our attention to one screen when we are juggling multiple projects. It becomes harder to devote attention to one screen or video for too long a time without some distraction, either on the PC or external (phone call, meeting, etc) to interrupt us. Still, this research simply looks at a moment in time. What I think confuses people is technology with content. All lengths are relevant, and ultimately the consumer decides where they want to watch their videos. How it is transmitted to a screen, TV, PC, or cell, will one day be meaningless. That is to say, we won't be differentiating between a web video and a broadcast video; rather, we will describe it as simple short form or long form. And to the question of monetization, the length of the content and the device it is displayed on may ultimately determine which type of advertising is most effective.

Recession Winner: Cable Operators

Television becomes the heart of the house. And in a recession, TV has become the place to forget our troubles. Today, TV access is through a pipe, a pipe that also connects us to more variety of content options. As household begin to watch their monthly spending, it seems clear that overall, cable TV is a low cost alternative to outside entertainment.

For a family of four going to the movies for one afternoon, the cost can exceed $30, not including popcorn. Monthly HBO is on third less for a full month of movies. And while households may even choose to downgrade their cable service to eliminate premium networks, they won't shut it down completely. They will still want networks to watch and have access to VOD and DVR entertainment to record and watch the shows they want when they want. And ask most households which service is most important and most will say their internet access. It offers cable the best profit margin and brings a continuous stream of content options to the home. Just try pulling your child off the PC.

So cable will continue to enjoy a solid monthly cash flow. Cable entertainment may even become more important than other forms of entertainment. Broadway is seeing a slew of shows close; restaurants are seeing less patrons as more dine at home. And cable feeds the home in multiple ways: TV, Internet, Phone. "People don't stop watching TV, using the Internet or making phone calls during recessions. That means the cable operators -- which offer all three services -- stand to strengthen while most everyone else hurts during the next few months."