Has Social Media Jumped The Shark?

In a study by PiperJaffray survey of over 5,000 teenagers, Teens reliance on social networking has declined over the last 12 months.  While teenagers are heavily engaged in technology, smartphones and tablets, they have shifted away overall from social media.  According to the study, Facebook is still their most important social website although that interest has dropped by 9%.  Twitter and Instagram have dropped slightly from a year ago.  Google+, YouTube, and Tumblr have also dropped.  "This data measures sentiment, not usage stats. If this data is solid, though, we should see it reflected in a teen exodus from traditional social networks. Considering how unwilling some of these companies are to talk about the younger demographic, it may already be under way."

While this new generation may be fickle in what they use, their loyalty may easily shift.  Teens seem more likely to be early adopters in new activities, whether social media sites like Vine and Snapchat, content platforms like Redbox and Netflix, and music outlets like Pandora.   As to smartphones, Apple outshines the others for teens.  Speed is key and per the study, 4G is appealing to the generation as well. 

So has social media jumped the shark for teens?  The release of the Facebook Home app may just tell us what teens are thinking.  If it is embraced, then the answer is no; if it is tried and dropped, the answer is clear.

Could Dish and DirecTv Merge?

Can Charlie Ergen and John Malone work together? The report in Bloomberg suggests that Dish may be looking at a merger with its satellite rival to better compete against fiber providers.  As the article indicates, Ergen has been active in the marketplace, trying to takeover Clearwire in an attempt to gain a bigger wireless presence.  Synergies with DirecTv could also help in Dish's favor.  But would the FCC agree to such a merger?

Given what has been enabled in the airline industry with Continental/United and USAir/American Airlines, anything is possible.  Even Sirius/XM Satellite were approved to merge.  But is Malone ready to give up DirecTv or share control with Ergen?  Two strong personalities in a quickly changing media landscape.

Given the rise in wireless and broadband, competition would still remain strong. The addition of Google into the mix and the strength of cable and telephone companies in the space remain the fiercest competitors to both Dish and DirecTv.  A strong wireless play would enable them to compete more effectively against these companies.And I suspect should a merger be announced, the FCC would approve it. 

First Kansas City, Then Austin; Then...

Google's entry in the cable business is starting to take off; first has been Kansas City, a Time Warner Cable (TWC) franchise and next may be Austin, another TWC franchise market.  And to challenge TWC further, "AT&T says today that it, too, 'is prepared to build' a speedy 1 gigabit per second broadband system in Austin."  Good for competition and good for the consumer to have choice. 

While fiber is the backbone of connectivity, the rapid rise in mobility makes me wonder whether consumers need to have the last mile connection from pole to home?  Can the cable operators, as well as Google and others be able to achieve their objectives without that last connection.  As many of us have mobile devices that we use in or  homes, laptops, tablets, and smartphones, and I would imagine a large number have their own wireless network off their broadband provider's fiber to the home, is there a simpler solution.  By enabling wireless connectivity from the pole to the home, don't we assure a better wireless broadband experience.  And perhaps create some cost efficiencies for the companies. 

The fight for faster broadband connectivity is growing with the rise of larger bytes of content flowing and more consumers pushing the limits of the stream.  As consumers find themselves frustrated by slow broadband connectivity from their existing provider, the rise of new entrants like Google and others with faster speeds may become attractive.  A pre-emptive marketing campaign and capital investment in their own broadband infrastructure seems required by TWC to fend off these competitors. 

Fox Network Considers Move To Cable To Stop Aereo

Aereo, as a disruptor in the TV landscape, has certainly created buzz.  Poised to help cable cord cutters to receive broadcast channels without a cable subscription, Aereo has discovered a work around that the courts have yet to disallow.  By building an antenna farm and offering a unique signal to each subscriber. Aereo takes free, over the air signals, repurposes and sells to consumers. 

The broadcasters are angry because they don't receive compensation for their signal while cable operators do pay them.  Success by Aereo could cause cable operators to renegotiate to also get these same signals free.  And so one broadcaster has threatened to change their business strategy to assure their license fee structure remains intact.

"In an Armageddon-like declaration that could unravel network TV, a top News Corp. executive said Fox could become a subscription service if courts don’t put a halt to the retransmission of its shows for free."  That means that Fox Broadcast Network would switch from a broadcast model to cable programmer.  And while it would assure a license fee, it would alter the local broadcast affiliate world.  Does each Fox affiliate build their own digital feed or does Fox simply do away with the DMA model approach that has served it since inception.  And most at risk would be programming, syndication and sports that are exclusive to the DMA.

Are these idle threats by Fox or has some real analysis gone into the notion of changing their business model?  Regardless, Aereo has put the fear of G-d into broadcasters, Fox and others.  They are disruptors in the truest sense of the word.

If ABC Wants Synergy, Then Bring Back The Wonderful World Of Disney

In today's New York Times, the focus is on ABC and plans to take advantage of Disney content and turn it into TV series.  The rationale, known brands attract viewers to the network and grow ratings.  "Among ABC’s 24 pilots for the next television season is a drama based on Big Thunder Mountain Railroad, a Disneyland roller coaster. Another pilot, 'Marvel’s Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.,' is based on ancillary characters from 'The Avengers,' which last year took in $1.5 billion at the global box office for Marvel Entertainment, a Disney unit."  Given their success in one medium, fuels a greater chance of success in another. 

And that brings me back to my idea, bring back The Wonderful World Of Disney (WWOD).  A staple from my childhood, WWOD introduced us to Davey Crockett, the Mouseketeers, and of course Walt Disney himself.  Today, a new WWOD series can be used to test pilots, offer a variety of different themed programming, from nature to science and entertainment, and bring back more short programming, a staple of the You Tube generation.  It also enables Disney to promote upcoming movies with special behind the scenes footage and interviews.  Add a compelling host, perhaps, or even a rotation of guest hosts from the staple of Disney shows and movies, and a great programming concept is reborn.  And given the brand, it might just deliver the multi-generation audience that ABC desires to reach. To me, the timing is right for another reboot of the series.

Peter Chernin Makes Bid For Hulu

Former News Corp COO Peter Chernin knows an opportunity when he sees it.  Hulu is for sale and Chernin wants to run it.  "According to a report in Reuters Friday night citing unnamed sources, Chernin made a $500 million bid for Hulu last month. It was not revealed how much of a stake the former News Corp. exec was seeking in the online video giant."  Will Hulu bite or will it be a first move in a protracted sale?  Clearly Chernin sees value for Hulu and so do I.  Even is an ever crowding field, Hulu has built brand value.

Is Exclusive Not Enough For Netflix?

Yesterday's CNBC report issued a warning to Netflix shareholders that its exclusive content, specifically its show House of Cards, was not exclusive enough to retain subscribers.  Of particular concern, that Netflix only had first window rights to the content after which it would likely be made available to other platforms.  And according to the analyst interviewed on the network, subscribers will likely churn to other sites.  "On CNBC's "Fast Money," (Wedbush Managing Director Michael) Pachter said that it was clear from the show's DVD sales on Amazon.com and its television-friendly 48-minute run time, Netflix only had a limited window from which to profit from the series." I disagree with his analysis and believe he is being short-sighted in his remarks.

For all subscription services with no penalty for early termination, quick and easy churn is inevitable.  And in fact, viewers are a fickle bunch.  Those that want it quick will indeed sign up to watch and drop when they are done.  Others will find value for the aggregate of content that Netflix and other subscription services make available.

Pachter does not see Netflix as comparable to HBO, but truth be told, HBO has had many more years to develop their brand.  As HBO and others have learned, it takes time to develop a pipeline of content, especially after having initial success with a series.  Consumers always expect a just as strong follow up and sometimes they get a dud.  No, Netflix cannot expect a longterm gain from one particular piece of content, regardless of the rights and length of the distribution window. 

Consumers have an insatiable appetite for content; the more they get, the more they want.  For Netflix and others to succeed in the space, they need to keep filling the pipeline with more original content as well as a large library of other TV and movie titles.  For Netflix, next up is Arrested Development, and like House of Cards, it should keep subscribers interested. 

Add Another Competitor To Streaming Digital Content

Yesterday, Warner Bros. announced its new streaming subscription service.  And now we have another entrant in the download and digital rental space.  "Vdio, the premium video service founded by Skype co-founder Janus Friis, emerged from private beta Tuesday night with an offering that looks more like Vudu or iTunes than Netflix. The service offers users streaming access to major Hollywood movies and TV shows from all of the major studios, with titles either being available for rent or purchase."  As this field enters the space, consumers will find themselves dizzy trying to figure out where to turn first for their download or streaming content. 

As there is very little different the content other than the titles served, cost of service may become the biggest decider to purchase behavior.  For those already loyal to a provider already established in the space, whether iTunes, Amazon, Redbox, Vudu, or Netflix, disenfranchising the consumer may be the biggest fear leading to switching providers.  Netflix learned that the hard way when they tried to split their DVD rental service from their digital streaming service.  A move that cost them customers and goodwill.

Can Vdio enter and thrive in a crowded marketplace?  Given that digital streaming is still in its infancy, the answer is obviously yes.  Still, given that digital content is ubiquitous, factors like exclusivity, user friendliness features, connectivity, and perceived value will be important to how consumers choose and build loyalty to a particular service. 

Content And Distribution Back At Time Warner Inc.

When Time Warner Inc. split out from its cable company, Time Warner Cable, it seemed to set a trend for content companies not owning distribution companies.  Time Warner, with its Warner Bros studio and cable networks, including TNT and TBS, has been focusing more on managing its content efforts.  And they have been forward thinking with deals outside the cable operator including distribution deals with Netflix, Redbox, and even with Facebook. 

So today's announcement comes as a little bit of a change in their digital distribution strategy.  "Warner Bros. started a subscription streaming service featuring vintage TV shows and films, creating a new player in the online viewing field".  Their new subscription service, called Warner Archive Instant is expected to feature older TV and movie content while newer content is available on the other online providers.  Will these partners find any concern with their content partner now becoming a distribution competitor?  I would imagine that Netflix and Redbox would prefer aggregating all the Warner content available as their consumers love both old and new programming made available to them.  But if Warner Instant Archive finds itself with a winning formula, Time Warner may just try to extend itself further in newer content, bypassing their partners for a likely better profit margin.  And that is what may be troubling to these other subscription service providers.