PTV subscriptions to grow 64 percent in 2008

The growth of IPTV is coming at a fast rate and most interestingly, Western Europe has the most IPTV subscribers while the US brings in the most revenue. Cited as contributing to this growth are platforms like You Tube, Hulu, an the BBC iPlayer. ""The biggest change since 2007 is the rapid advent of new entrants making inroads in consumer video consumption and placing greater demands on IPTV operators to innovate," said Gartner research director Elroy Jopling....Gartner defines IPTV as a managed broadband network which delivers high picture-quality television and video content to a user's TV set via a set-top box. Content delivered over the Internet or only to a computer is not included." This seems like an odd definer these days as You Tube can be accessed via Tivo and Netflix is accessed via Roku and other devices.

Essentially, IPTV opens up new channels of content to consumers. While lowering barriers of entry enables more content to be found, it doesn't necessarily mean that more content equates to better content. Ultimately, content remains king and its perceived value to the consumer is what drives usage. Enabling easy access and gaining awareness through promotion are key tactics to build viewership and ultimately monetize the content created.

Senate to Hear Update on Switch to Digital TV

What is that you say, the switch of analog to digital is not going smoothly. So far, the test in Wilmington has finally caused some to see get concerned. In fact, word is that the Oscar telecast may want to move its award show to March from late February days after the conversion date. "The country will make the transition on Feb. 17, when TV stations will no longer broadcast analog signals. Older TVs will not be able to use the new digital signal, and a person who does not buy a new digital-ready TV or a converter box will not receive TV programs."

This conversion may be the final straw that makes television no longer "free" as consumers may feel "encouraged" to seek out a cable, satellite, or telco provider, rather than convert their set to receive over the air, digital signals. Will this conversion happen as scheduled or will it get delayed. And when it occurs, what will the true impact be and what repercussions will it have. Either way, it is sure to be a bumpy ride.

ISPs: Video Flood Will Drive Tiered Broadband Pricing

It now seems that ISP providers want to put a meter on usage. It certainly starts to make bit streams sound like a utility; your water and electric meter being read every month to determine what your bill is going to be. I still recall the days when your telephone calls were measured by minutes and you needed to be very careful, especially if calling "long distance". But wait, aren't those days over. Telephone bills are an all you can eat model, US and Canada, for one low price. Even some cell carriers allow all the calls you can make to other cell phones, and unlimited nights and weekends.

And now ISPs want to turn back that clock, from one low price for an unlimited, "always on", connection to a usage pricing plan. Is it possible to put the cat back into the bag? In this new competitive world, I say it seems unlikely. The moment your cable ISP changes pricing plans is the moment the consumer takes a serious look at their telco competitor. The provider that keeps their pricing low will see a competitive edge, especially in this current economic state. While they have made the internet connection as important to a household as water and gas, consumers will be proactive to switch providers when pricing plans change. The solution is more efficient technology solutions, not caps or pricing penalties. This issue may just be the turning point in this competitive race.

Netflix announces deals with CBS and Disney

Netflix continues to cast a wider net. Realizing that DVDs alone does not a business make, Netflix is working hard to expand its brand in online content. Its deal with CBS and Disney allows consumers to get it's content delivered to their PCs. The advantage of the Netflix subscription is that this content is made available without commercials. So you can put up with ads on Hulu or watch without ads on Netflix. Both new and older series will be featured. There is definitely something appealing about a subscription service that enables the user to get content without advertising; but one must wonder how long that can last. It certainly makes the existing Netflix subscription more valued, but is it a stop-gap to subscriber erosion, or will it lead to fee increases to pay for these new content deals. I suspect that advertising-free content will be short term as the need to monetize becomes too great. Still I like the approach and think it will do well for Netflix.

Sirius XM Is in a Serious Bind

Sirius XM stock is hovering below $1 and their growth prognosis is limited; so why did it take so long for the FCC to approve the Sirius XM merger. Clearly the time it took has hurt their ability to be competitive in a quickly changing world. Perhaps the shareholders should sue the FCC for this delay because surely it has hurt them. The push toward HD radio, itunes, and even internet radio makes it hard to build and maintain a subscription radio model.

How compelling is Howard Stern, Martha Stewart, and now Chris "Mad Dog" Russo to the equation. In the past, I've argued that content is king; at the same time, the content has to be regarded as differentiated and valuable. With these personalities and other "exclusive" sports programming, Sirius XM should be fine. Still it would have been nice to have approved this merger a year ago so they could compete effectively.

DVDs Account For 81% of Video Spending

So DVD sales still represents a solid majority of sales verse the internet. It breaks down like this, "41% of the amount consumers pay for movies and video is spent on DVD movie purchases; 11% for purchases of TV programs on DVD; 29% on DVD rentals (including from Netflix)." And of the total, only 0.5% are paid downloads. The research also says that over the last three months, most consumers watched a DVD they purchased or rented, while only 18% watched a VOD movie, and even less watched a downloaded movie.

But does this research paint an accurate picture and where are the trends? In my household, VOD movie surpasses DVD movies 9 out of 10 times. In fact, we are more likely to check out VOD titles before going back into our DVD library. And VOD usage as well as internet usage continues to increase. So where are the trends/ Is my household leading the trend or are we behind it? I believe the DVD, while a great device, is fading. While DVDs already fill a number of bookcase shelves, (and more can fit as they are smaller than their predecessor, the VHS tape), it is time to replace them with an even smaller device. Is it a flash drive or smaller. Will all my movies fit on an iPod to be connected to the TV or PC when I need a bigger screen? Try taking a portable DVD player with you on a trip and try to fit all the DVDs that you might like to watch with you.

People are still watching their DVDs, but are they purchasing them at the same rate as last year or the year before. Their DVD libraries aren't going away, but are they getting any larger. Maybe that is the real trend to watch.

No Reissuing of Digital to Analog Coupons?

Will the transition of Digital to Analog happen on February 17, 2009? Are consumers ready for the conversion or will the government need to delay the date. As a cable customer, I have done nothing. Two of my sets are on a converter box, the rest are not; we get our unscrambled signal through the wire directly into the TV set. And while we aren't getting every channel on those sets, we get enough of the ones we watch to satisfy us. And I like the remote that came with the set far more than I like the one that works with the cable box. And the one set has a Tivo to record the broadcast shows we watch.

As long as the cable company leaves well enough alone, I will remain loyal. But once they force me to put a box on every set, I will revisit my decision and may find that the impetus to switch from Comcast to Fios.

And for those poor souls with an antennae still on their roof, well let's just say that the NCTA is not making it easier or you. "The head of the National Telecommunications and Information Administration told Congress the NTIA still does not have the inclination or authority to reissue digital-TV-to-analog converter-box-subsidy coupons to households that did not or could not redeem them before the 90-day expiration date." How nice. This conversion will not be easy and the NCTA is not helping.

Best Buy To Acquire Napster

Best Buy sees the future and it is not limiting itself as an electronic retailer. Acquiring Napster allows it to diversify into web based applications. "The acquisition, set to close in the fourth quarter, includes Napster's 700,000 digital entertainment subscribers, Web-based customer-service platform and mobile capabilities." In general, consumer electronic companies have had a hard time staying in business. As electronic prices fall, it becomes harder and harder to grow sales revenue. Watch how the price of TV sets have decreased. And while new products emerge, it takes more sales to make up for lower prices. If a 40" TV cost $500 a year ago, today it costs $400. The list is long with defunct electronic stores: The Wiz, The Good Guys, Silos, Highland Appliances, Crazy Eddie, Comp USA, Lechmere, and many others.

While Napster may not be the ideal acquisition, strategically it seems right. Best Buy and others need diversification to offset equipment sales. It is about the content on those machines and Best Buy could use this acquisition to build a valuable synergy. Buy a mp3 player from Best Buy and get a unique deal from Napster. Free downloads to Best Buy customers. Build loyalty, build a separate advertising model; it could be a winning formula.

Plugging away at world with no wires

How many power cords do you own? Too many to count I bet. Chargers for the cell phone and telephone, digital camera and video camera, game boy and DS, portable dvds, ipods and the rest; old ones to old devices that are still in a basket wrapped around new ones in a tangled jumbled pile. Well it seems someone might just be listening. "Hoping to usher in a new era of communications freedom, researchers at MIT, Intel and elsewhere believe they can do for charging your cell phone or laptop what WiFi did for information delivery -- that is, get rid of those annoying wires."

Now don't get too excited, change is not coming in the next few months, but it is being discussed and I bet consumers might choose a device with a wireless power back up over a wired one. Just ask yourself, would you rather have a bluetooth headset or a wired ear plug for your cell phone? How it is done, I'll leave to the scientists; but I certainly would prefer a wireless charger to a wired one.

But the question I ask is how do you charge for power consumption. And how can you prevent unauthorized users of your power source from stealing from you. Will power consumption revenue models emulate the wiFi model? Will power be advertising supported? Change is in the air, so to speak; how it is effectively delivered and paid for remains the challenge.