Sirius Chief Sweet-Talks Stern

Sirius is having a good year so fay. It' stock is over a buck and the car industry is slowly improving. So what is left. Staying relevant in an ever-changing technological environment and proving the old adage that content is king. One way to prove it is Howard Stern. His contract is up and he is the essence of exclusive content that separates Sirius from its rivals. "Stern's shock-jock humor is one of the biggest draws for the satellite radio shop and a key to improving its slumping subscriber numbers and advertising revenue." But does his price justify the rewards? Is Stern relevant today?

Howard has been out of the limelight since he left terrestrial radio for satellite. He is hard pressed to call himself the King of all Media anymore. But his fan base, if small, is loyal. And Howard does work hard to stay newsworthy. He is even in the press positioning himself as Simon Cowell's replacement on American Idol. Howard knows how to stay in the news.

"Sirius needs Stern. The pay radio shop lost more than 300,000 subscribers last year, leaving the company with a total of 18.7 million paying customers at year's end. Stern's is a program that people will pay for, it's also one of the few programs where Sirius sells ads....A new deal between Sirius and Stern may include provisions that would play to Stern's potentially broader appeal. Analysts and media veterans have suggested possibilities like a scaled-down Sirius schedule, a syndication of tamer programs for conventional radio or allowances that let Stern pursue TV shows."

A new contract that gets Howard more national exposure through TV and radio could also make the need to get Howard on Sirius less necessary, too. It is a fine line in how much exposure across media platforms so as to not hurt Sirius' bread and butter platform. To that end, a merger of Sirius with a bigger content company like Liberty Media makes even more sense. A Howard show on Starz, a TV subscription service and Liberty company, helps two pay platforms.

So for now Sirius should re-sign Howard and seek partnerships that serve mutual goals.

To 3-D or Not 3-D

CES premiered a number of 3-D TV sets and cable networks, including Discovery and ESPN, have announced the creation of 3-D channels. And next month, consumers can actually buy a 3-D TV set. "Sears, the first US retailer to offer 3-D sets, is selling two models, a 46-inch set for $2,599 and a 55-inch one priced at $3,299. The sets are made by the electronics giant Samsung, which began selling them in Asia late last year. Viewers have to wear 3-D glasses to get the in-depth, visual effect that is now all the rage in the movies." And I believe it will be a big bust.

I believe 3-D today is a fad best used in theatres to draw kids and adults to pay more to watch a movie. Frankly, the glasses are awkward, uncomfortable, and viewing sites are more limited. It works in a theatre, it will bomb in the home. Without enough content, limited programming, ands the need to wear glasses, a 3-D set is not the near future of home entertainment. Until enough content arrives and can be watched without glasses, the future for consumer electronics remains HDTV.

Consumers are just now purchasing their big screen HD set and are not about to junk it for this development. Early adopters are instead buying multiple HD sets for more rooms in their house, while others are just now buying their first HD set. For the next few years, the future will be lower priced, bigger screens (55" and higher) HD sets for the main viewing and smaller sets for the bedrooms, study, and kitchen. Will consumers look at them in the store - yes. Will they buy a 3-D set - No.

For Networks, Web Can Increase TV Ratings

For Networks that rely on advertising revenue, the web is not evil. Viewers can walk and chew gum at the same time and they do watch TV and surf the web simultaneously. In fact, as the article suggests, the web's social networking tools allow a virtual water cooler to occur at the moment the show is airing. No waiting till the next day at work to talk about last night's show. "The Nielsen Company, which measures television viewership and Web traffic, noticed this month that one in seven people who were watching the Super Bowl and the Olympics opening ceremony were surfing the Web at the same time."

The challenge of talking to viewers in different parts of the country can limit this interaction and so some programming is being shown at the same time across the country. "Seeking to capitalize on the online water-cooler effect, NBC showed the Golden Globes live on both coasts for the first time this year, and the network reportedly wants to do the same for the Emmy Awards this fall, so the entire country can watch (and chat online) simultaneously." Ratings for broadcast networks should continue to grow again.

The challenge does remain for networks and cable operators that rely on cable subscription to grow revenue. Consumers are growing more weary of paying exorbitant fees and are using competition as one alternative to find lower rates. And cable operators continue to use Promotions and incentives off their regular prices to keep customers from switching. But the web will enable us to drop cable subscription and receive programming strictly through a web connection. Operators will try to recoup that loss through higher usage fees and other means. But as network license fees rise so will cable subscriber fees. How consumers fight this inflationary war will sure include how the web effects this business.

Jay Back on March 1

The commercials are airing and NBC is promoting The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. No, they are not saying new and improved; rather, a Beatles song announcing that he is back. Will Jay capture the old magic from the time slot? Will his old audience return to Jay from Dave? And will Conan prove that when he lands, his loss was another mistake for NBC? These are just a few of the questions critics have.

My thoughts. Jay will do better but not back to his old numbers. Dave will hold on to his lead for a while. And Conan should do better when he lands. Lots of hype on NBC.

And speaking of hype, how many times can they run The Marriage Ref and Parenthood ads. I feel like I have seen both shows and I don't feel the need to see episode 2 of either show!

Hello Comcast; NBC requires registration for online Olympic video

I like the Olympics. I don't like how NBC presents them and I long for less talk and more action. Talking heads are not my thing and some of their blather makes me cringe. But that is another topic. Instead, I note the article in the Washington Post indicating that NBC requires registration to its site to view the Olympics online. "Users who click on certain videos on the NBC Olympics site are asked to identify their providers and prompted to provide a username and password for their cable or satellite account. If they don't have a password, they must enter their account number. The registration is one-time only. The policy guarantees that no one will be able to bypass cable and satellite systems to watch Olympic events. The risk for NBC Universal is irritating their customers, many of whom probably don't carry their cable account numbers with them."

And this is precisely why the FCC shouldn't grant the merger of Comcast and NBC. Restriction of any form is anti-competitive. Why must a viewer be associated with cable or not. NBC is a free TV experience; it's web programming ought to be equally free; otherwise, it smells like a cable network that requires subscription. And in a less than subtle move, that subscription is to cable itself. Is this what a Comcast - NBC merger has in store for the consumer? "NBC Universal, which has said it expects to lose more than $200 million on the Vancouver Games, said the satellite and cable providers required the registration in return for helping to defray some of the cost of Olympics rights." Trying to hide this move behind a loss leader is not the consumers fault. So what that NBC payed too much for the Olympics. Broadcast has relied on an advertising only model to succeed. If it isn't working then call NBC by its true name - cable network; else, it should remain a no strings network.

Have I watched any Olympics online myself - no. I am loving the HD experience and find it comparatively much harder to watch online on a small screen. Give me a big screen, HD picture anytime. But I root for the little guy who seeks out more variety. If the only way to catch up on Curling is online, then let it be equally open to view.

Can Anyone Compete Against Facebook?

Facebook left My Space gasping on the ground and Bebo and Friendster in the dust. Now Google is announcing their plans to compete with the social space giant. It is called Buzz and will attempt to integrate with Gmail. "Facebook is a household name, and it takes a lot for a tech brand to reach that point. Google did it with search and iTunes has done it with music sales--which is why it takes massive companies like Microsoft and Amazon, respectively, to make a dent in that market share, and they've still had an uphill battle (to say the least)."

I am not a fan of Gmail although I continue to prefer Google for search. As a Facebook user, I have found it more valuable than even Twitter. Still, nothing lasts forever and Facebook will face more and perhaps better competition in the future. I believe Facebook considers this and thus continues to tweak its website to improve its social connections. And it has yet to falter. "Facebook has surpassed 400 million active members around the world, and additionally announced Wednesday that it has 100 million of those members using its mobile Web site." Pretty impressive numbers.

And unlike Twitter, it seems to do a better job of driving campaigns. Have you signed up yet to get Betty White on SNL. Over 200,000 people have so far! So good luck Google Buzz, you have a long road to go to beat the leader. And others before it itching for a share as well.

Watch Out Cable, Vudu Is Here

While I haven't used Vudu, I am intrigued by its capabilities. Too many times there is a movie that I would like to watch, but isn't found on my cable service. Not HBO or Showtime or Starz, not On Demand. And while I am not looking to rush out to Target to buy a copy of the movie, I would love quick and easy access to watch it. Hence, the appeal of Vudu, a service that seems to offer more movie titles than what is currently available through the converter box. "But if you want recent movies on demand (legally), the best bet has been Vudu, a set-top box that connects to the Internet. You can watch any of its 16,000 movies and TV episodes instantly on your TV."

In addition, the article describes the menu, search features, and other trick features of the service. The only thing it lacks is chapters to go forward more quickly. Still it seems to outpace cable's menu options and graphics by a mile. And as TV and blu-ray manufacturers bypass the cable industry to directly connect via the web, it is clear that they will very quickly get the upper hand on cable. Of course, cable companies will start to charge an arm and a leg more for higher speeds for web access. That is where competition is good. With Google talking about being an ISP provider and other companies thinking of ways to enter this market, cable subscription will erode. Hello wireless, hello Google, hello electric companies pushing broadband through its wires. Watch out cable.

Google Wants A Piece Of The ISP Market

Google wants a piece of the ISP market and could build a distribution platform that competes with cable. Or as the article speculates, it is a ploy to force cable operators to put more capital investment into their infrastructure. "Building out pipes and delivering bits is a lousy business. It's hugely capital intensive -- Verizon is spending ~$20 billion just on the first phase of its FiOS buildout -- and hugely focused on manual labor, customer service, etc. Add low margins and increased competition, and it makes no sense for Google to do this on a broad scale."

The cable platform will be replaced by IP and the financial model will be changed to take in more revenue from higher speed connections and less from cable subscription. And IP would enable more direct relationship between the content creator and consumer; the pipeline will simply follow traffic control and hopefully not turn into a toll collector.

Madison Square Garden Splits From Cablevision

The unraveling has begun; MSG is separate from Cablevision. While it helps to unlock the value to Cablevision shareholders, separating out MSG also enables the Dolan family to concentrate on sports and music and sell off the rest. And the rest means Rainbow Networks, including AMC, WE, IFC and others, and their cable system serving homes in NY, NJ, and CT.

How much value is unlocked we must wait and see. But what the Dolans do next is always a mystery. That they actually followed through on this plan to separate the two companies is amazing. Tracking stocks have been announced and withdrawn, sale rumors continue to surface intermittently. Can two companies with such an interwoven cast of characters really work independently?

Nook Arriving; iTab Says So What

With Valentine's Day in a week (wait you mean Christmas is over) Barnes & Noble has announced that their e-book reader will finally be available at their stores. "Barnes & Nobles, based in New York, said it was shipping Nook e-readers to the majority of its stores beginning this week, with devices on sale in stores as of February 10." Great, but so what. Apple has just announced it's tablet, the iPad, and the Nook and others pale by comparison. Is the Nook's thunder lost? Will consumers buy or wait and see what is the ideal choice. Or wait even more for the next generation to fix the bugs and come out cheaper anyway.

With newspaper and magazine subscriptions dropping, is anyone thinking about packaging them in with purchase. The Nook should create a deal, with every purchase get a free one year subscription to 1 newspaper and 2 magazines. Price it into the purchase price and sell the low package cost. Help out an industry and perhaps in return get extra advertising and PR back.

I look forward to the future of e-book readers when they are made of flexible materials that can be rolled up and stuffed into a pocket. Size, portability, mobility, and convenience.

The End of The Jay Leno Show

Tonight, the 10 PM experiment known as The Jay Leno Show officially ends, not with a bang, but with a whimper. Unlike Conan, no intrigue, no build up, no increase in audience. So why risk anything. "Jay Leno is expected to take a low-key approach to tonight’s finale of “The Jay Leno Show,” which is ending after five disastrous months on the air." Why bother.

Let's hope that the Tonight Show will find its audience again. The brilliant commercial with Jay, Oprah, and David Letterman, makes one wonder why give credibility back to Jay. Perhaps Dave likes a good fight, or he is simply above it all to worry. At the same time, could it have been funnier with Conan?

Get Ready For More Commercials On Web Videos

You can run but you cannot hide. That is the fate that advertising has on the consumer. We ran from broadcast TV to cable with the hope of less commercial interruptions. HBO and Showtime forced us to pay but at least the movies were uninterrupted. We ran from linear to DVR so we could fast forward through commercials. And we ran from TV to computer to watch our shows online, when we want to watch them, and with fewer commercials to put up with. But that is changing, too. "Indeed, viewing programs on Hulu, the online video site owned by NBC Universal, News Corp. and Walt Disney, means encountering significantly fewer ads than one would see watching TV. And Disney's ABC.com has met with some success by running ABC shows with just a few ads, often from a single advertiser. But many TV executives say these methods don't bring much, if any, profit -- and therefore cannot continue." Nielsen will capture viewership data and consumers will put up with more commercials. And more advertising will bring more revenue.

On Demand is better than the DVR in one respect, the consumer doesn't need to proactively decide to tape something, it is simply available. But the DVR provides an important advantage too. It enables us to fast forward through inane, and way too many commercials, to enjoy the content, and only the content. American Idol in 40 minutes, Survivor in 42 minutes, and so in. Just two shows gives me back the time to watch more or do something else. It is the only way to watch. More on demand commercials will only help Tivo and the the DVR box.

NBC - Comcast Merger - Will It Be Approved

As Comcast and NBC present their case to the FCC why the merger should occur, many speculate if it helps or hurts free TV. Both companies say publicly that it will be better, but some worry that NBC will be turned into a cable model and others that it will be anti-competitive. One recent example is that Boxee has tried to place Hulu content on its service. Hulu, an NBC partnership, has said no. Under a Comcast ownership, the worry is that Boxee competes with Comcast products and would not be in Comcast's best interest. Owning content and distribution is problematic. For years, movie houses couldn't own studios for fear that they would not allow other studio product to be seen on the big screen. The analogy holds true here, too.

I also speculate what the future looks like. I see broadcast moving from digital, over the air and cable signals to an IP delivered product. Which affiliate you want to see is based on IP address and perhaps even zip code. As they and cable move to this model, the consumer will stop purchasing cable packages. Cable companies will charge more for broadband access to overcome the loss of the other two legs of its service, cable and phone. And consumers will seek more choices for those connections to broadband - cable, wireless, perhaps even other utility companies (electric), that can bring hi-speed into the home.

If Comcast owns a broadcast network, why would they facilitate this technological change. Like they have done with TV manufacturers, cable has hidden behind shoddy technology (set top boxes, Tru2way) to limit others from entering the cable space. Just now, we are seeing companies like Netflix work to bypass the cable limitations to reach the consumer directly. Why would NBC and Universal want to support this change if it only hurt their parent company.

In Multichannel, Senator Al Franken (D-Minn) looks at NBC's own history as a judge of what is likely to happen. "He said he was very concerned about the merger. He cited NBC claims in the early 1990s when the financial interest and syndication rules were phased out that networks would not favor their own programming over independents (those rules prevented networks from taking a financial stake in the domestic syndication of prime time programming). Franken pointed out that today NBC is the biggest producer of its own programming. He said that it is now 'routine practice, and you know it,' to demand at least part ownership in a show, and that independent status affects placement on the schedule." His concern is valid.

So NBC and Comcast will say what they must to get approval but it is important to see beyond their rhetoric to what this merged entity would really mean for the entertainment landscape. I believe it is not in our economy's best interest to approve this merger. It will limit competition, squash technological innovation, and ultimately hurt the consumer.

Sirius At The Super Bowl

The Who are appearing at the halftime show of the Super Bowl. The Who are also getting their own channel on Sirius. The channel is only scheduled to run for a week."Starting at 3 p.m. ET on February 4, Sirius XM Radio will offer a limited time, five-day programming block dedicated to rock legends The Who. Running through 11:59 p.m. on February 8, channel 16 on XM Radio and channel 40 on Sirius Radio will be strictly devoted to commercial-free content chronicling the group's 40 plus years on the musical scene, featuring such singles as "My Generation," "The Kids Are Alright," "Pinball Wizard," "I Can See for Miles," "Won't Get Fooled Again," "Who Are You" and many more. Recent album releases by the group will also be thrown into the mix, including content from the compilation "The Who Greatest Hits," and "The Who Greatest Hits Live," a collection of previously unreleased and newly mixed concert recordings from throughout the band's career."

Lots of stock speculation around Sirius. Analysts are betting the stock should hit a buck and investors have been buying and selling options to take advantage of the rumors. Even Liberty, who owns a large percentage of Sirius debt is seeing its shares bump up due to the positive news coming out of Sirius. It certainly is fun to watch!

Comcast Rebrands To Xfinity

Following in the steps of Cablevision who successfully rebranded its triple play services as Optimum a number of years ago, Comcast is stealing a page from their playbook. It's new name for its triple play of services is Xfinity. The new name seems an attempt to move people away from Comcast as a cable company and toward a more robust technological distributor. "Starting next week, Comcast will begin rolling out the new Xfinity brand -- Xfinity TV, Xfinity Internet and Xfinity Voice -- to customers in 11 markets: Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Portland Ore., Seattle, Hartford, Conn., Augusta, Ga., Chattanooga, Tenn. and parts of the San Francisco Bay area."

For Cablevision, the Optimum brand change was deemed successful. Some consumers actually thought they were a different cable company. And the new brand name could push new benefits and new value. For Comcast, the Xfinity name is attempting to do the same thing. Coming up with a new brand name is an arduous and difficult process. Many scoff at any name change and ask why change. When NYNEX became Verizon many years ago, many wondered what exactly a Verizon was. They successfully turned Verizon into a very powerful positive brand experience.

Comcast, and now Xfinity, face a similar challenge. Is Xfinity a great name. Who can say. What Comcast does to back up its new name with better technological products, better service, and better value is what matters most. If nothing changes, then Xfinity will simply be seen as a repainted pig and not a new brand. So change the name but also change the service. A better set top experience, a better on-demand and DVR experience. Yes put Tivo in every box. A better mobile experience. Yes, put Slingbox in every box. Back up the new claims and a new brand name can be very successful.

What's Up With Sirius?

It seems the stock price. Sirius is on a roll and shareholders are paying attention. Back in August, Sirius was trading under fifty cents and in the last couple of months, it's price is hitting near a dollar. That is quite a 100% jump in only 6 months. "Everything seems to be going the company's way these days, after capping off a roller coaster of a year in 2009, with the resumption of subscriber growth, free cash flow generation, and credit rating upgrades."

Can Sirius continue to grow or do they need to be acquired in order to capitalize on all the technological change occurring around them. Will it be necessary for Sirius to reduce it's number of shares through a reverse stock split in order to remain listed on NASDAQ? Will Howard Stern stay on and re-sign his contract? Lots of questions. But it sure is nice for shareholders to finally see a rise in the stock price.

Facebook Becoming Third Most Popular Website

Facebook usage continues to explode, while My Space appears to be a no show. According to Comscore, it is besting Yahoo and third to Google and Microsoft. "In December, 2009, Facebook attracted 469 million unique visitors, up an incredible 31 million visitors from the month before. To put that in perspective, in a single month Facebook gained as many new visitors as Yahoo did all year. That one-month gain was also the equivalent of adding as many people as all of Digg or half of Twitter.com." That is an amazing growth story.

But Facebook needs to adapt and change. While it is nice to read about friends' activities, it is too easy to lose site of best friends and relatives from simple acquaintances. There needs to be a better way to sift through the blather to more important friend comments. Also, it would be nice for Facebook to be an aggregator of current news, where friend's comment of those news stories could also be featured. Facebook is like the gathering tree, a virtual place to share real news as well as personal tidbits and gossip; to stay connected, despite living many miles away. That (and its silly games) make Facebook a must visit site every day.

iPad AND Verizon

Apple's iPad announcement had one big miss, no new wireless platform partners. Well the rumors abound that this situation should change. Verizon is still in the mix and an agreement could be announced by mid year. "Wall Street analysts who initially reported a Verizon-Apple deal -- which hasn't been announced yet -- made similar predictions today. They didn't know if Apple's hitch with Verizon was technical or business-related, but at least two analysts were confident that Apple would announce a Verizon deal sometime this year." Let us hope that news is true.

Will Apple iPad Be a Revenue Winner?

Does the iPad have what it takes to be a must-have product and revenue winner? It seems that the news is mixed; some like the low initial price point, others are critical with its limited abilities. And from announcement to availability is at least 5 weeks. Does that work in favor or against Apple? I hoped to see it at the Apple Store, even if I couldn't purchase, but found nothing available yet.

One interesting idea that I read was that a home would have multiple iPads around the house, each sharing data for the home, calendar, music, notes, etc. It would be kinda cool to have one upstairs and one downstairs, and able to refer to it for everything from kids' school calendar to supermarket shopping list; plus interact with the web, getting stats while watching a game, or playing music that was from my home computer itune's account. if the iPad can act like that, a convergence tool that connects to the home computer and other iPad's in the same home, that would be the ultimate advantage. Sign me up, I might just buy one now.

Bloomberg thinks the price point is still high. "Apple will start selling three models in the U.S. in March, priced from $499 to $699, that let users connect to the Internet over Wi-Fi networks. Three models that work with AT&T Inc.’s 3G wireless-phone network will go on sale in April for $629 to $829, with an additional $14.99 or $29.99 a month for a service plan." Given how the iPod grew, I would suspect that the next iteration of iPad would see a lower price point. As that price point approaches $300, multiple iPads in a home might just be a reality.