Randy Pausch Last Lecture

An amazing story. His quote "Bricks are there for a reason: they let us know how badly we want things." So true, when things come too easy, we don't respect what we have. And regardless how good or bad things are, life is precious. His stories truly reflect the notion that one shouldn't sweat the small stuff. And when life gives you lemons, make lemonade! His honesty is real. An amazing man



His full lecture can be found on You Tube. Well worth watching.

CBS Creates 'EyeLab' To Woo Web Surfers

CBS splits from Viacom and it seems to be good news for that side of the company. CBS's efforts prove to me that they understand the space and are embracing the advantages that the web brings to compliment, rather than replace, their TV model. Additive programming built around shows, seem to me to be an ideal way to enhance the show's value, encourage more viewership of the TV show, and create synergistic revenue opportunities. Not clear in the article is how CBS plans to monetize the clips they have created, but I am confident that they have a business plan.

I also expect that they are not discounting the viewer interest in on-demand viewing of their long form programs. As the viewer has become more mobile and scattered, they may not have the time to come to the show. On demand and on line content enables the viewer to watch the programs and clips on their times and not per the whims of a network schedule.

The Growth of HD and its effect on viewing choices

Comcast has just announced that it is launching more Hi Def channels, including HGTV and Food HD simulcasts. Also today, Direct TV announced that they are launching 21 additional HD nets to bring their number of national HDTV channels to 31. Next month, an additional 18 HD nets are to be added. The distribution of a Hi Def signal is best served by cable and satellite and not yet by broadband. In addition, HD sets are flying off the shelf as more consumers seek a better viewing experience. The only thing that doesn't change is time. There is still only 24 hours in a day, and once you remove sleeping, and perhaps working, fewer hours remain for viewing.

My point is that the rise of Hi Def is a competitive tool to keep the viewer connected to the tv experience. The viewer must mull which matters most the convenience or mobility to watch a program away from the tv set, or the quality of the video and sound experience to watch on the HD set. And on a VOD basis, would you rather watch a SD or HD version of the program. Would you rather watch Heroes or 30 Rock on a 2" screen or on your 50" HD set with surround speakers. With sports and films, the choice is even more obvious. Circumstances may affect that decision, but in the end, I believe the experience of HD wins out. Networks need to embrace HD; consumers are preferring it. Add an interactive component to the HD set and we may just become couch potatoes for life.

Can the Long Tail be Monetized

VHF channels begat UHF, UHF begat more basic cable tv networks, basic channels grew and begat more basic tiered channels, more came along as basic channels repurposed themselves and created digital offshoots. And the number of video offerings continue to grow at an exponential rate as channels are created on the web. And while broadcast television has seen their audience drop and cable's share has flattened, they still represent the hump of viewing. So how do the rest of these networks survive? Have we become too fragmented in our offerings or do these ultra niches still have a profitable economic model?

Ultimately the real economic power lies with the big networks who can repurpose their content on the different distribution platforms and enhance their brand value with "extras" and more interactive access. The challenge for the small network is to be seen as the dominant brand in their small pond. And to hope that the size of that audience is still large enough to monetize though advertising, subscription, commerce, etc.

It seems that the ones who are making money are the individuals who come up with the great idea and then build it out to be sold to the bigger company. As businesses, they need the synergy of the larger network to become more efficient and effective as a network. So many examples exist: Classic Sports sold to ESPN, Court TV sold to Turner, Bravo sold to NBC, and rumors of Oxygen soon going to Turner as well. On the Cable Operator side, we no longer talk of Adelphia, Vision Cable, Falcon, Millenium, TCI, Telecable and others. The same will hold true with web programming.

Bundling vs a la carte

There have always been complaints from homeowners regarding purchasing a package of channels against the ability to only purchase the individual channels you want. And at first blush, it sounds like a good move for the customer, pay for only what you want. But in reality, that might not be the case. First, people really don't watch channels, they watch programs. So if they find themselves liking a new program, they will then start moving to a transaction type model to enjoy the individual show. The more you watch, the more you spend. In most cases, buying in bulk, whether at Costco or on your channel line-up, ultimately gives you more for less.

Yes, we get channels that we may not want to watch, but the reverse also holds true, others may not like the channels we watch. Ultimately, the aggregate purchase enables all to get access. Now some channels are placed higher up in tiers and force an additional purchase, and even others may not even be available on your particular cable company's line-up. It is not an all or nothing environment for channel viewing. But the system isn't broke, so does it need to be fixed?

So how does the issue get resolved. The answer I believe does lie in the world of broadband. Channels and shows can find distribution outside the linear cable line-up. VOD enables a subscription or transaction opportunity. That cable customer can get access to on-demand without purchasing any additional channels. And the opportunities with IP delivered programming and new platforms like Joost brings more choice to your fingertips. And isn't that what we really want, more choice. So this lawsuit shouldn't be about antitrust or program packaging; the effort of these litigious individuals should be about embracing competition from Direct TV, Dish, Verizon FIOS and AT&T U-Verse in the marketplace, the choice of programming on the web and on VOD, and fair and open access to the web. That will keep the pricing of programming reasonable.

NBC to offer free episode downloads

Is NBC's digital distribution strategy clear to anyone out there. Shows are available on Amazon Unbox, Hulu, and now on NBC Direct. Where does the user end up, hard to tell. What drives them to one of these sites. Also hard to tell. How does the consumer find out that the episode is free with commercials on one distribution platform, and available for permanent ownership on another. Beats me. Why did they create Hula in the first place and when we they end that partnership with Fox. (I'm guessing it closes in a year.) We are watching NBC go through a great big learning curve. And it will be interesting to see what they do next.

CTAM NY Panel explores broadband vs cable for content

Today's panel, from CTAM's annual Blue Ribbon Breakfast, asked the question, can broadband video be cable's newest opportunity. Perhaps the bigger question to ask would be Friend or Foe.

An "A" list of panelists that included Herb Scannell, CEO of NextNewNetworks, Matt Strauss, SVP New Media Comcast, David, Eun, VP Content Partnerships Google, Dallas Clement, SVP Cox Comm, and Bruce Campbell, President Digital Media Discovery, and moderated by Will Richmond, Principal of Broadband Directions, spent the hour discussing the changes in viewing behavior and the opportunities and threats that broadband viewership brought.

The cable perspective viewed it as an opportunity provided the infrastructure included them. Matt spoke of the infrastructure to reach the user however they choose to watch and that Comcast is committed to adapt to meet that changing pattern. He points to the success of VOD and the eyeballs they are reaching as one example. And Dallas's comment regarding Hi Def programming makes the cable platform more effective for watching this type of content. Google talks publicly of its partnership philosophy, but left unsaid is how they can enter the advertising side of the cable business and be the transaction arm on the cable platform. Programmers seek eyeballs, either through the synergy from existing linear brands or by distribution efforts. As Herb Scannell suggested, we can't expect the viewer to come to us; we need to put our content out to the viewer wherever they may be. Herb also noted that the mantra is no longer "content is king", but rather "the consumer is king". The conversation even ventured into the changing pattern of subscription content, as noted by the change at Times Select.

This was a terrific panel. I must note that I am currently VP on the CTAM NY Board, but was not responsible this year for this particular event's planning. The committee outdid themselves to create a panel that will be talked about for quite a while. How consumer viewing patterns change and how the industry adapts its infrastructure to remain valuable seems the key determinant. The interactive elements of video, data, and mobile into a cohesive service may be the key win for all parties.

Murdoch making the case for free WSJ online

Is this becoming a trend?!

Can Subscription Work on the Web?

Apparently the New York Times is giving up on a dual revenue stream and no longer charging for access to special features on their site, N.Y. Times Select. Lost fees will be made up, hopefully, by more eyeballs and thus more advertising revenue. So with the Times caving in, does this lead to more sites doing the same. I was not a subscriber to their website, although we have been getting the print edition home delivered for years. I always felt that I could get the information I needed without paying extra for it. obviously others felt the same.

And yet, I am a subscriber to the Zagat subscription site, receiving both a book and full web access to their reviews. Am I in the minority; do most people find adequate info to their search without paying extra for membership. And will that type of open access lead to fundamental change in behavior. Will people stop buying the print edition of the Times or the Zagat book, when the info is so easily accessible on the web. In these two cases, and as many others are noticing, convergence is changing behavior and old methods need to be replaced with new thinking. How companies find new ways to monetize these businesses will determine their continued existence and their profitability.

Hearst to Acquire Health Web Site RealAge

The announcement by Hearst Magazines that it is buying a consumer website is further recognition how the web has changed our behavior. I was recently asked when did I make the jump from going to the newspaper to look up movie theater times to searching for that info on the web. I still read newspapers, but the immediacy of the web and the fact that the info can now be retrieved faster led to that transition.

In the case of the above announcement, what magazines need to recognize is the same shift of behavior and to adapt each to suit the user's needs. Magazines aren't dead, and the value of the Magazine brand can extend across technologies. With this acquisition, Hearst appears to be spreading the risk by sharing the content of the RealAge website across multiple magazine brands, Oprah and Cosmo.

The key is synergy of content with convergence across distribution, to satisfy user interest and keep them loyal to the brand longer. To escape the long tail of usage and find a large audience, content from the web needs partners across other media and multiple distribution paths, to build brand awareness, preference, and value. Big fish do eat small fish and that is what makes them bigger and stronger.

Video Distribution Wars Heat Up

Great article from MediaPost's Online Video Insider! Worth reading.

The bottom line - many different distribution strategies aimed to reach the user. Is it a zero sum game or can multiple approaches work. Which one does the user embrace and which don't achieve their full potential. The one thing for sure, digital distribution seems to allow for a lower barrier to entry. Own the content and you can decide which distribution plan to embrace!

The Convergence of Devices and Content

Gary Shapiro, the President of the Consumer Electronics Association, spoke recently at the International Broadcast Conference, assuring the broadcasting industry that they are far from dead. As he notes, change is inevitable and the convergence of viewing devices and content, along with the shift in viewing toward more mobility, brings greater opportunity. He points to devices like the iPhone as examples of this convergence, and also to more viewing choices such as wireless phones, computers, and PDAs.

His most interesting note is to proclaim that the broadcaster has the best direct line to the end user and that they "own the highest value spectrum there is," better than cable, satellite, wireless, and web. Interesting, since most customers that still take their broadcast signal over rabbit ears will have to buy a digital antenna, and perhaps also a new TV set that takes the digital signal. Also, broadcast has not come up with a direct to home device for hi-speed web, relying on phone lines or cable. I argue that this FCC digital transition may lead these remaining non-cable, non-satellite customers to in fact take one of these products and force the broadcaster to rely even more on their relationships with cable and satellite.

Recent ads by cable tout that competition is good and that by them entering the phone business they are bringing healthy competition to the user and thus better pricing options. The triple play by cable companies have in fact been an ideal way to lower churn and retain customer loyalty. They also have the pipeline to interactive content, like VOD, and the convergence of data and video.

At the same time, the FCC transition may also be helpful to competition. Along with a digital antenna and superior signal, comes HD programming directly to the set, without a converter. Niche programmers with an inability to get prime channel line-up space on cable or satellite might consider offering a digital signal and become a broadcaster of their own channel. As Shapiro says, "A single touch of one button and the consumer is instantly dialed in." Still, how the broadcasting industry answers the issue of interaction will have to wait for another day.

CBS interconnects local affiliate sites to its interactive network

While the MTV side of the family employs a decentralized approach to its content and websites, CBS is going at it from an opposite direction and interconnecting its diverse family of affiliates to a central site for content.

I'm kinda partial to the CBS approach. A user looking for CBS content, say Survivor, is likely to utilize search for the show and be pushed to the CBS site. There they can find ways to localize their interest to their local broadcaster. I also think the synergy of a central site allows that user to learn about other shows of the CBS Family. In addition it is keeping the brand value inside the CBS brand. Unlike NBC and Fox's shared site, Hulu, and independent sites like iTunes or YouTube.

It's still about creating a well organized site with accessible search that intuitively understands the user and what they are seeking. It's also about all these sites working together to push the website brand. "Our collaboration with CBS Interactive represents another great leap forward in the evolution and continued growth of our TV stations' digital media initiatives," said Jonathan Leess, digital media group president and general manager, CBS Television Stations. "The expanded integration of CBS Entertainment, News and Sports video content into our sites and, ultimately, the sharing of hundreds of thousands of locally produced, on-demand news clips from our award-winning, local newsrooms truly makes this a win-win partnership."

ESPN Adds Web, Mobile Series

Watching compelling content find its way across multiple devices, including pc and phone, is always exciting. ESPN is the leader in moving content to its audience. They were early to take their tv brand to radio, and the continue to push outward with breadth and depth of content to the web and mobile.

I am most amazed how users are finding this content, not just ESPN, but as more content is created, which shows are most watched and which fall down the long tail. The strength of ESPN is their ability to communicate these choices through their on-air brand and build a synergy to get their viewers to taste their brand in so many different ways. Of course, the final success will be determined by the user, if they find and stay loyal to these new outlets as they have to the TV.

MTV Niche vertical web strategy

MTV is employing a unique strategy creating unique websites that stand alone as content and tie in specifically to its related on-air content. So that for example, The Daily Show will get its own web site as opposed to being a link inside a Comedy Central website. This decentralized approach enables a more targeted experience but may be at a cost of less clicks to get to a site, but more time spent on the site and related content. It also remains to be seen how each of these individual sites connect to each other in such a way to keep the user engaged across other properties.

The bottom line remains the quality and quantity of the assets on each site. The example posted in the article with The Daily Show.com providing links to full shows has great potential for advertising revenue. Given the number of shows already produced, the search mechanism to find shows to watch based on guests, dates, stories, etc will improve usage as well. Its VOD for the web. I love it.

Vudu Brings Movies to TV

Competition is especially fierce in the download to own or rent for movies. In addition to cable's VOD application to watch movies on demand, entrants like Netflix, Amazon, iTune, and now Vudu. So many choices, how will the consumer choose. I believe the following 8 factors will determine which company emerges the leader:

1. Quality of the content - essentially an HD format to match the popularity of the screen.
2. Ease of use - VERY User Friendly
3. Speed - how fast is the availability of the title and will it start immediately
4. Quantity across genres - not just the most popular, but all types from indie to blockbuster
5. Accessible menus and Ease of search - few clicks and offer recommendations
6. Non-disruptive advertising - enough said
7. Extras - DVD like stuff without the DVD - alternate endings, cut scenes, etc.
7. Ability to copy and share across platforms - TV, pc, iPod, Zune, PSP, etc.

The company that does the best job of delivering the above will emerge victorious.

Web to TV Convergence

Content and distribution are continuing to become a very important topic to me. The convergence of technologies and the choices that are being offered now allow content publishers to use new distribution strategies to reach users. One example, noted in the WSJ article cited is Kylin TV, which is offering Chinese programs via a high speed connection from Neulion to the TV set. Others, like Vudu, are offering access to movies to the TV also through a high speed connection. The long tail of programming choices continues to get longer.

On the other hand, Fox Business News went to the well, negotiating basic cable line-up carriage to gain large distribution access. Whether users switch from CNBC or Bloomberg to taste this new channel and decide to switch or stay loyal to the current business source awaits to be seen. In NY, NBC was able to renegotiate carriage of its properties - CNBC, USA, MSNBC, Sci Fi, and Bravo, to position their channels right next to each other on the teen numbers on the Time Warner NYC line-up. That's the Time Square of positions and must have cost a pretty penny! Pushed into the suburbs, A&E, History, and Discovery. The NBC family, as well as Fox Networks are most likely betting that technology will not change fast enough to enable the user to define their own unique channel line-up for their own home. Cable already allows you to set your favorite channels; hopefully these nets recoup their investment before cable enables the user to set up their line-up to their personal liking!

The ultimate winner remains the pipeline. Cable, and now Verizon FIOS, offer the cable line-up and the high speed line through it. Technology through the cable box or via a cableCARD through the TV set brings more entertainment to the TV screen. NBC is banking on all the distribution possibilities - thru the cable line-up, Amazon, and now Hula. It's all coming together and soon the home won't be able to tell where their programming is coming from, through the line-up or streamed from the web.

But be careful, companies like Comcast or Time Warner that own both the pipeline and content are assuring themselves vertical control of the industry, from content creation all the way to the end user.

Time Warner Cable New York slots Fox Business Network as CNBC, Bloomberg TV ramp up

Here is a case where distribution is key. Time Warner Cable in New York City is making changes to its line-up. Fox Business News Channel, a brand new entrant to the cable line-up, has found key positioning on the basic channel line-up, channel 44 for its service, channel 45 for Fox News. CNBC doesn't hurt in this deal, they are on channel 15 with MSNBC next door at channel 14.
And where is Bloomberg...channel 109.

That must have been one heck of a negotiation to get such prime space when most new entrants are lucky today to get VOD, let alone digital carriage. And where are the channels that used to occupy that space ending up.

In this case, distribution is power.

Amazon's Unbox to Sell NBC Shows

As the relationship with Apple and iTunes quickly unravels, another begins, the Amazon unbox store. But what of the user. As the Apple iPod owns the vast majority of portable devices, this new relationship immediately drops all those potential users as well as those that own a mac. What is next in store for NBC to regain those users. As Hulu is not set to release till October, where does the user go to watch NBC shows on their mac and iPod devices. Perhaps that will be NBC's next announcement. As both a mac and iPod user, I am concerned. The one bright spot is the relationship of Amazon with Tivo to watch these shows.

What is missing from all this hoopla is that NBC was also using iTunes to promote its new Fall series with free downloads of its new shows. That marketing strategy appears to be missing from the Apple Unbox announcement. Building loyalty to new series seems key to the rebound of NBC in the ratings race. New shows need to find an audience and this strategy of free downloads helped to build the word of mouth and interest in becoming a regular viewer.

Sony May Take On iTunes in Download Arena

First, the NBC/Fox partnership, Hulu, announces their plans, then NBC pulls out of its iTunes negotiations, and today Sony announces its plan to compete with iTunes. Plus Amazon is already in the space. Does this spell the end of iTunes dominance? Did Steve Jobs and Apple take for granted their huge market share to control distribution and not see that the barriers of entry are dropping to allow more players to compete. Will the user go to the content or will Apple's distribution force content owners to continue to use them in their mix of distribution platforms.

It is all part of the survey question being asked, which is king, content or distribution.