Apple Watch Adoption

An important component to the successful adoption of the Apple Watch will be Apple's retail stores.  Just enter the please touch me world of an Apple store and immediately their devices are at your fingertips.  Play with an iPhone 6 Plus, try out the Apple TV, surf the web on a Macbook Pro.  And have a question, an Apple employee is easily spotted in their branded T shirt, happy to help.  Never is anyone told to not touch any of the Apple devices.  In fact, Apple makes it easy to become a fan. 

It is that approach to retail that should surely aid the introduction and adoption of the Apple Watch.  As long as the customer is allowed to play with it, touch it, figure it out, then they will build a connection and ultimately purchase.  The Apple Watch has a long life cycle ahead of it; the first generation watch will come with a lot of learning, some failure, but ultimately future success.  And while reviews were mixed on what was loved and hated on the watch, most expect future generations of the Apple Watch to succeed. 

I too may not be an early adopter of the first gen watch, but I like what I see so far.  The potential is enormous and the future bright.  Like other devices from Apple, price points will eventually come down, noticeable improvements of screen, battery, and memory will occur, and consumers will continue to demand more.  The best way to gauge the success of the Apple Watch might just be to watch consumers pour into their nearest Apple store to play with the device again and again.  For what Apple has learned through retail, the more they interact, the more likely they are to buy. 

Apple Watch Reviews Are Coming In

Not yet available for sale, the Apple Watch is being reviewed and as you would expect they include the good and the bad.  But like any first generation product, the key to longevity will depend on the value the consumer perceives from it.  Apple has a lot of experience with product launches.  Just look at the first generation of the iPod, iPhone, and iPad and see how the current generation compares.  Massive improvement and huge appeal.  So if history is any guide, the Apple Watch will follow the same curve.

But for those looking for some early reviews, I've attached some links:

CNET - "The Apple Watch is the most ambitious, well-constructed smartwatch ever seen, but first-gen shortfalls make it feel more like a fashionable toy than a necessary tool."

CNBC - "positive with caveats"

The Verge - "Apple has the marketing prowess, the retail store network, and the sheer determination to actually make this thing happen."

re/code - " If you’re an iPhone power user and you’re intrigued by the promises of wearable technology, you’ll like it, too."

Business Insider - "The watch is a really nice device that has lots of potential, but most people should skip it for now. It's good for early-adopting techies who live and breathe through their phones, but the rest of the world should wait for the next version of the watch."

NY Times - "It took three days — three long, often confusing and frustrating days — for me to fall for the Apple Watch. But once I fell, I fell hard."

Bloomberg - "The Apple Watch is cool, it’s beautiful, it’s powerful, and it’s easy to use. But it’s not essential. Not yet."

I'm sure early adopters will buy the Apple Watch just like they did the first gen iPod and iPhone, and iPad.  As battery life improves and more apps are written, I am confident the Apple Watch will become another integral part of the Apple ecosystem.  And for those homes that like the Apple Universe, the Apple Watch will be the next big must have device.

Has Battery Power Made A Quantum Advance

An interesting article in re/code has announced news out of Stanford University that may radically improve battery usage and recharging.  According to the article, "A research team at Stanford University says it has come up with a prototype aluminum battery that can recharge in as little as one minute, as compared to the hour or so it takes the fastest lithium-ion battery." In addition, the new battery is said to be safer, cheaper, and last longer on recharging.  while still a prototype, one can only wonder how soon before this product comes to market. 

How Big Could Charter Cable Get

Considering that the FCC has yet to approve the Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal, Multichannel is already speculating just how big could Charter get.  Once that deal is approved, and many believe that if it wasn't the FCC would have already said no, Charter Cable would move forward with its deal for Bright House Networks and acquire subs from the TWC consolidation to exceed a 10 million cable subscriber base.  

Given Malone's penchant for growth, this domestic drive for a larger cable footprint could lead to more consolidation.  According to the article, the next targets could include "Suddenlink Communications (private), Mediacom Communications (private), Cable One (planned to be spun off from Graham Holdings as a separate public company this year) and Cablevision Systems (public), with the latter possibly involved in a later system swap with Comcast."  But first, Charter would have to successfully integrate the Bright House properties before chasing after these names.  

How would the cable landscape look after AT&T acquires DirecTV and Comcast acquires Time Warner Cable, here you go:

MVPD                                                  Subscribers

Comcast/Time  Warner  Merger*         30,000,000

AT&T/DirecTV  Merger*                         26,300,000

Dish Network                                           14,000,000

Charter/Bright  House Merger*           10,000,000+

Verizon                                                        5,600,000

Cox                                                               4,100,000

Binge Viewing Seems Like A Drug Overdose

The rise of streaming content and the access to entire seasons of TV shows has encouraged binge viewing by consumers.  Where new episodes of our favorite TV shows would appear once a week with a splattering of repeats to interrupt the flow, we got used to watching a season of a show, approximately 23 episodes from September to May.  But now a TV show can have a season of 12 shows to be watched from start to finish.  And we binge to get our fill as quickly as we can. 

And viewers are binging thanks to Netflix and others with seasons of House Of Cards, Unbreakable Kimmy Schmidt, and syndicated programming like The Walking Dead and Breaking Bad.   We can't watch just one and Netflix encourages us by auto-playing the next show in order before the credits even finish on the last show.  Like an addict, we are hooked.

And no sooner are we finished, we are desperate for me.  But when we are done watching the latest season of House Of Cards or other shows, we are forced to dry out till a new batch of shows are produced, edited, and available to air.  And so we switch our habit to another series to satisfy our incredible thirst for more content.  And we are never quenched. 

Our need for immediacy, instant messaging over emails, on demand over linear, and a constant flow of ready to watch video content, might possibly be creating a monster in all of us.  We can no longer live without our smartphones, checking them throughout the day.  We lack patience.  And waiting through commercials to watch cable TV sometimes drives us mad.  We are binging on content with a demand that can't ever seem to be fulfilled.  And I doubt that we will ever slow down to smell the roses.  Binge viewing is simply one more drug for our need for getting it now. 

HBO Driving Aggressive Growth Strategy

No longer owned by a cable parent (Time Warner Cable), HBO has become fairly aggressive in fighting back Netflix, Amazon and other premium content providers.  They were early to the OTT game, offering HBO GO to authenticated cable subscribers.  They have always had a robust VOD library to drive value and retention of their cable subscription model.  And they have created a non-cable authentication platform called HBO NOW that will be exclusive to Apple TV for 3 months.  You almost need a scorecard to know what content is exclusive to any of these formats: VOD, GO, and NOW.

But even an exclusive HBO NOW offering with Apple isn't stopping HBO from being accessible to the streaming universe.  In their latest deal, HBO is offering a streaming package to Sling TV, different from Apple TV.  It includes one linear feed to their main channel HBO (not HBO 2,3, 4, etc.) and the cable VOD library and priced to consumers at $15/month.  If Apple thought that they had some exclusivity, then they must be feeling a bit cheated. But for HBO, it is an aggressive strategy to drive subscription whether a cable, Apple TV, or Sling TV customer.

So is there any content exclusivity across any of HBO's platforms? Will there be windows where one platform gets a TV series or movie and the others don't.  Or will shows like Game of Thrones be accessible regardless of the platform, VOD, GO, or NOW?  It may simply be that they are dressed up under different brand extensions but are essentially the same library of content. 

Being free of a cable operator has certainly allowed HBO and its other Turner siblings (TNT, TBS, etc) to negotiate deals without the threat of anti-synergy behavior.  With streaming access a big competitive threat to the traditional cable model, delivering their linear and on demand library as OTT streams, HBO and Turner are delivering content where and how the consumer wishes to watch it. 

Will The Key Business Die Like The Horse And Buggy

How many keys do you keep on your key chain?  The house key, the car key, an office key perhaps.  What if you could leave your keys at home and let your smartphone access all those locks and more.  That is the discussion in today's Business Insider.  But according to the article, both Apple and Google envision a keyless future. And according to the article, "Apple and Google both need these businesses because they are so big.

Consider the applications that your smartphone or Apple Watch could enable: entry and ignition in your car, entry into your home and office, access to a hotel room, and the ability to authorize access and use to others.  Wherever authorization is required, the smartphone can replace your key or smartcard to gain entry.  And wouldn't that be nice to no longer have to find your keys. 

Cable Consolidation Confirmed For Charter

Three weeks ago, I mentioned in my blog that Charter Cable was kicking the tires on Bright House Networks.  Today it has been confirmed that Charter will acquire Bright House with a combined subscriber base exceeding 7 million homes.  Bright House parent, Advance-Newhouse will own about 25%, and Liberty about 25% of the new MPVD.

Most interestingly, this acquisition is contingent on the Comcast acquisition of Time Warner Cable.  Should that not happen, this deal could likely be kaput.  Bright House has benefited from their current relationship with Time Warner through a programming partnership that enables them to get the same license fee rates as TWC.  That programming deal would likely expire when or if the Comcast deal is approved.  Combining with Charter post approval would create a larger entity that could likely retain those better licensing terms.

So just to count all the cable acquisition deals in front of the FCC to date, we have Comcast and Time Warner Cable, AT&T and DirecTV, and now Charter and Bright House.  Three and counting...one can only wonder who the next likely target will be. 

Can TV Everywhere Help The Cable Industry

Today's Variety poses an interesting question, Is Cable's 'TV Everywhere' Strategy Finally Poised to Take Off?  According to an Adobe Systems' study, viewership doubled from the previous year to reach 20% of all pay households.  That is to say that 20% of all cable subscribers were authenticated to watch TV programming away from their cable box across other streaming devices.  Reasons for authentication included streaming Olympics coverage as well as World Cup Soccer.  And come this next football season, the NFL has agreed to stream a regular season football game.  Whether that also involves authentication remains to be seen.

I've had the pleasure of downloading network apps that require my cable email and password for authentication.  I've read reviews from others that have downloaded and used apps from Xfinity to NBC to CBSN.  As for ad supported networks, a number of the reviews are unkind.  Examples include gems like this, "I do not usually write reviews but the duplicate, redundant, and excessive amount of ads thrown at me while watching a single episode ..." Or this one, "This app is hopeless streaming to Apple TV."  Or "The commercials are loud and so repetitive".  Some are more positive, "Easy to operate. Wish for less commercials."  Clearly there is need for improvement.

That consumers are using these apps and are so passionate indicates to me how valuable they can be.  Technically, more can always be done to improve the viewing experience, assuring no glitches or freezing, and an easy interface to choose and watch content.  The other issue is commercial load and how much the consumer will watch before they turn away to commercial networks, continue to cut the cord to cable, and focus exclusively on subscription services like Amazon, Netflix, and Hulu Plus.  If part of the goal of TV Everywhere is to drive value for cable TV, both on and off the cable box, then don't kill the golden goose before it even has time to fully hatch.

Clearly consumers are increasingly using these authenticated apps to enjoy their TV programming on their other devices, from iPads to iPhones to Roku.  And enabling access to live network linear feeds as well as on demand viewing benefits the authenticated viewer with a better, more personalized viewing experience.  But like any good business, it is so important to listen to the customer.  Rule One, the customer is always right.  Rule Two, when the customer is wrong, see rule number one.