ls The Microsoft Surface Priced To Fail?

The rumors continue to flow about the Microsoft Surface.  Where will it be sold, how can it connect, and how much will it cost.  So the news that a WIFI only version will be the first released and priced at a whopping $599.  Certainly not a price point that will excite too many possible consumers.  "Throw in the fact that one new estimate shows the battery life on the two tablets will fall short of the competition, and Microsoft's new tablets start to seem like a much tougher sell."  It starts to make the  tablets from Amazon and B&N far more attractive.

And what should Apple due to beat Surface to the punch; how about add apps that bring Microsoft Office to the iPad.  Already, Business Insider has an article on a free app called CloudOn that brings all those features of Office to the iPad and Android tablets.  For Apple to highlight and market that app on iPads prior to the release of Surface could just be its nail in the coffin and make the Surface DOA.

Forget The 7 Second Delay, Cursing Is OK

What is indecency?  A curse word, a little nudity; to some, it is acceptable, but to others it is not.  And while we as a society seem to become more at ease with public profanity and nudity on HBO, we still have the FCC trying to police the broadcast airwaves against their version of what is indecent.  Well, at least for the  moment, it seems that they have been overruled.  "The Supreme Court on Thursday declined to address whether the government still has the authority to regulate indecency on broadcast television, but it ruled in favor of two broadcasters who had faced potential fines for programs featuring cursing and nudity on narrow grounds."

Based on these indecency cases, some of which look to be a decade old, the fleeting use of cursing, some of which occurred  during live broadcasts are not subject to any FCC fines.  I guess that now means that there is no need to institute a 7 second delay on live sports or award shows.  So now that football star or celebrity can drop an F-bomb at will.  And Janet Jackson should have no trouble exposing her other breast at halftime; here that Madonna.

With technological innovation enabling video across multiple platforms, not just broadcast, but cable and the internet, the rise of language and nudity is everywhere.  So why should these cases even be heard.  The gate has been wide open for years.  “'In my view, ” Justice Ginsburg wrote, the Pacifica decision 'was wrong when it issued. Time, technological advances, and the commission’s untenable rulings in the cases now before the court show why Pacifica bears reconsideration.'”  In light of changing technologies and society morals, the FCC has lost its focus.  We may wish for moral decency, but free speech ultimately endures.  Perhaps the focus should instead be in campaigning for the return of civility.  Not in wasting taxpayer money on regulating cursing.  You missed that boat a long time ago.

Today Show Upheaval

While it does not yet seem to be confirmed by NBC, the rumor mill is abuzz that Ann Curry's days as co-host of TODAY are numbered.  Not since the days of Deborah Norville have we had such trouble with the morning show.  Consumers, heck most human beings are uncomfortable with change.  Only when it is shown to be better, faster, easier, that we finally let down our guards and make the change a permanent choice.  TODAY show is facing that challenge now; will whoever replaces Ann be a better fit and a more preferable host to keep its audience happy.  Or will it encourage sampling of other network morning shows.

For NBC, host challenges seem to be following them.  It's only been a few years since Conan - Leno was the  front page issue.  And while WNBC is a NYC station, its news program just wen through its own shake-up last week with the departure of Sue Simmons from the evening news, only to be  replaced with a younger, cheaper version of herself.  As change is uncomfortable for people and viewers like the familiarity of its hosts, the acceptance of a new host to replace the old always comes with possibility that  viewers won't stay through the switch.

For WNBC, the choice was perhaps a financial one; for the TODAY show, it may be more about the loss in viewership and the need to recapture them through a host switch.  It eventually worked for TODAY Show when Katie Couric came on board and the audience loved her.  For Ann Curry' successor, we can only wait and see if the same thing can happen.

Time Warner Cable Would Like To Kill DVR Functionality

Enjoy fast forwarding through the ads on your DVR recorded programming, Time Warner Cable may just be trying to thwart your efforts.  "The patent, which lists Time Warner Cable principal architect Charles Hasek as the inventor, details how the nation's second largest cable MSO may be able prevent viewers from skipping TV commercials contained in programs stored on physical DVRs it deploys in subscriber homes, network-based DVRs and even recording devices subscribers purchase at retail outlets."  Good news for advertisers, bad news for consumers.  And if successful, they could then license their patent to other cable operators and change the landscape completely.

Time Warner Cable may be reluctant to use too quickly, although they do disable fast forward on their exclusive "Look Back" and "Start Over" features. For overbuilders and satellite providers, the offer of a DVR with a more consumer friendly DVR could be the impetus to cause more subs to leave Time Warner.   In fact, it could make Dish's Hopper DVR that much more desirable.

TWC isn't the only operator trying to salvage the advertiser value in video programming.  "Comcast  recently submitted a patent application that details how it could deliver alternative commercials to subscribers that hit the fast-forward button on their remotes to skip ads."  Or an ad being placed over an ad being fast forwarded through.  We may need to go backwards and start recording again on a VCR so we can retain control over our fast forward functionality.

Is Nook Decline An Indication Of Trouble?

Sometimes it is hard to see the forest through the trees; with the latest quarterly decline of the Nook, one could ask if this is part of a product change or a consumer shift.   Sales for the year rose from the year earlier, but sales for their fiscal fourth quarter declined.  Was the decline due to the introduction of a newer model and consumers waiting to buy it or due to a shift from e-readers to tablets?  Now that digital has been broken out from the brick and mortar business, investors can see more clearly which segments are rising and which are hurting.

More interesting is the effect the future introduction of the Microsoft Surface has on the tablet industry this year.  With Apple, Amazon, and Barnes and Noble competing in the tablet space, Microsoft Surface could take away share from these guys.  With Microsoft's investment in B&N, should there be more synergy.  The Nook app store running inside Surface or sales of Surface at all B&N bookstores.  It makes me wonder, are they partnering or are they competing?

Cord Cutting Stats Show Rise in Free TV

Today's NY Post article continues to confirm that consumers are pushing away from cable subscription, especially given the current economy.  "Nearly 18 percent of all US households with TVs are watching old-fashioned broadcasts delivered for free over the airwaves, up from 15 percent of homes last year, according to research firm GfK Media."  This 3% rise from last year follows a rise of 1% from the year prior.  With cable costs rising and digital antenna and online providing a lower cost alternative, this may be the start of a growing trend.  Should we find that next year, the increase in over the air rises greater than 3%, then we can clearly say that this shift is becoming a growing trend.

But cord cutting is only one indication of trouble in cable subscription.  The other is cord shaving or cord shifting, the reduction of services to lower monthly charges.  "GfK’s report also found that 16 percent of households downgraded TV service this year through March, while only 11 percent of TV households said they had increased service."  Is this a trend too, probably so.  When the  economy eventually does improve, it will be interesting to see if these same households go back to cable again or have found enough satisfaction from over the air and online.  I suspect that they will.

Microsoft Announces Surface Tablet, But What Does It Do

The announcement of Microsoft's latest tablet, Surface, seemed to follow the Apple cookbook, little notice, no advance word, and then the talking heads.  Microsoft seems to be embarking on more of a follower strategy where once in their life cycle they were seen as more the leader.  In this case they are copying the Apple playbook and may soon decide they need their own retail presence.

What surprised me most about Microsoft's new tablet is that I get very little about what differentiates it from other tablets, most especially the iPad, and what unique benefits it offers to consumers.  "The software giant could incorporate its Skype Internet phone software in a tablet, which could make for a compelling rival to Apple's FaceTime video-calling feature on iPhone and iPad. And integration of Microsoft's popular Kinect camera, used on Xbox, could give a tablet an unusual twist — voice and motion controls."  But none of this seemed to be confirmed attributes of the Surface.    How strong will the synergy be to other Microsoft operating system PCs; how quickly will a back office app store be started to provide the applications to make the Surface function?  Will Microsoft hold off on an iPad friendly Office suite to give its Surface an extra edge?

Some speculate that the USB port on the Surface gives it an immediate edge.  Apple continues to believe that the cloud and wireless are the ideal connections.  As more and more devices come equipped with blue tooth, the need for any wired ports may become ancient history pretty quickly.  As for the future of the Surface, we will wait for its actual release to determine if it is the next Xbox success or Zune failure.

Microsoft Tablet - More To Learn Today

By later this afternoon, we should all finally learn what Microsoft's announcement will reveal and the plan for a tablet should be confirmed.  For now, speculation is that it will align with their recent investment with Barnes and Noble and synergy with their Xbox product.   The Xbox makes perfect sense as I speculated in an earlier blog.  What capabilities B&N bring are less known; could it be that it incorporates an app to read Nook purchased books, possibly.  Or that it will use the retail locations of B&N to sell its tablet; certainly not an exclusive relationship as I'm sure every other electronic retailer, Best Buy included, that will also want a piece.

Is Apple worried, of course not.  Without an engine of content behind it, like the iTunes app store, Microsoft will have a lot of catching up to do.  The Xbox angle will help, but I wonder if it will be enough.

Will A Microsoft Tablet Perform Better Than Their Zune?

Microsoft is scheduled to make a big announcement on Monday.  And the advance word is that it will be a tablet, competing with the Apple  iPad and others.  While historically, Microsoft has licensed it's software on other products, the  plan may be for Microsoft to manufacture its own tablet.  The question is, can Microsoft catch up to Apple or will this attempt be as unsuccessful as their Zune product, an iPod wannabee?  So far the track record for Microsoft hasn't been good, but the mantra must be, never stop trying.

"The problem with this strategy in the tablet market is that Apple and Google have disrupted the business model.  Google offers its software for free, and its hardware partners struggle to match Apple on the price and quality of the iPad."  For Microsoft, the challenge must be to bring something new to the product line that competitors haven't done before and to make it better.  I can imagine that one way to take a bite out of Apple would be to price its table noticeably lower than the iPad.  Second would be to build in unique functionality that interacts seamlessly with its Xbox product.  A second screen perhaps to make game playing even more immersive or controller elements from the tablet to the  screen.  Marketing their tablet to their Xbox loyalists could also help capture a significant share quickly, provided that a needed benefit is demonstrated.

So stay tuned for Microsoft's Monday announcement.  The tablet space is getting more interesting, indeed.