First Run Movies At Home

Going to the movies getting too expensive. Can't find a babysitter to leave the home to catch a new flick. Well first run movies may be coming to your big HDTV TV set. "Families may soon get the chance to watch in-theater movies from the comfort of their living room couch -- for between $20 and $30 a flick." If you start to do the math, home viewing could replace movie houses.

A family of four going out for a movie could cost over $40 just for tickets and another $40 for popcorn and soda. A couple with the need for a babysitter could be paying even more. The cost savings could be a real boon to film distributors because at a lower cost and easier accessibility, consumers might end up watching more movies and ultimately paying more money. Unfortunately, the loser might just be the movie house who will miss admission and refreshment revenue and ultimately need to raise prices to break even. As their costs rise, attendance will drop.

The hope remains that those that like to leave the house for the movie experience will continue to do so. Offering first run films directly to the home at a premium price will result in growth and not a redirecting of dollars from one pocket to another. "One cable source said: 'A home-theater window is a better proposition than the bricks and mortar store. Cable already has movies ahead of Netflix.' Within recent weeks, key studio executives have publicly expressed support for the new window idea."

Will this new home premium window be a good thing or will it hurt the movie theater business? The rise of premium networks, VOD, and other choices has yet to impact the movie theater experience. The rise of Imax screens and 3D keep us going to the movies. Innovation remains key and new opportunities should be viewed as a good thing.

Is Apple In Trouble?

Has Apple gotten too big for its own good? Are they no longer the scrappy little guy but the biggest bully in the room. Unfortunately, that behavior gets noticed and now the government may want to get involved. "The Federal Trade Commission is about to take the lead in the federal investigation of possible anti-competitive behavior at Apple, according to a well-placed source familiar with the matter." While I am a fan of Apple, I understand the need for an open and competitive marketplace. Control and openness are hardly ever synonymous.

"FTC Commissioner Thomas Rosch, in a presentation Wednesday at the Vienna Competition Conference, spoke about Apple, a source said. Rosch said that Apple's new advertising policies preventing competitors from doing business on Apple devices seemed problematic, and were potentially significant developments." I'm sure that Apple will argue that other devices are available and the consumer is free to choose which platform they wish to use. Consequently free trade exists in the market and Apple's proprietary ad engine is not anti-competitive. But Apple's success is its own worse enemy. They have built must have products and captured significant market share as a result. They are the game with few players able to reach their level. Even Microsoft has been unable to build an iTunes type business or iPad alternative.

Will an FTC or DOJ investigation lead to a charge. I'm confident the attorneys are already hard at work defending Apple.

Does The Consumer Know About VOD

At yesterday's VOD Summit, held in Philadelphia, a number of statistics were shared. One in particular was that 45% of set top box households use VOD. And the question was asked, is the glass half full or half empty? It sure means improvement from just a few years ago; at the same time, it means that more than half the households still don't use VOD. So what is needed?

Typical consumer behavior with their TV seems as follows: Turn on the tube and surf the channels. When nothing is found, go into the pre-recorded DVR shows and decide if something is worth watching at the moment, then head into VOD. Others though bypass VOD and go right into their DVD collection. The challenge is how to raise the awareness and added value that these homes already possess with their cable subscription but are not utilizing.

The challenge of VOD usage rests in three buckets, choice, convenience, and ease of use. For all three, education remains key to sharing the benefits of VOD. And that message must be presented consistently across all media platforms to break through the clutter. With tons of choice, sometimes too much can be too much and the consumer will pick none of the above. With choice and an overwhelming list to select from, comes the need for expertise and recommendations. In general, consumers want help in picking what to watch. The convenience comes from the technology, the speed of watching what you pick over waiting for a disk to arrive in the mail or going to the store to pick up a DVD. Convenience though could also be improved inside the viewing experience. Getting to places inside the show is difficult with a fast forward button that doesn't offer 15 minute fast forward or DVD type search functionality. With convenience must also come ease of use and navigation remains problematic with the set top box. An overhaul of the navigation menu is immediately required to bring more people into the space. The current "tree and branch" and clunky search does more to drop people out of the navigation process than get them to the shows they want to watch.

Fixing navigation, providing recommendations, and improving the trick feature process will go a long way in gaining more users to the VOD platform. Educating a consistent message on how to navigate and the benefits VOD brings to the home will entice more households to see the value of VOD with their cable subscription.

Tivo Patent Struck Down

Is Tivo in trouble? First they win their lawsuit then it is stayed and now the patent that may be at the heart of the issue may be invalid. If true, can Tivo survive? "The patent in question is TiVo's "Multimedia Time Warping System," U.S. Patent No. 6,233,389, which describes a DVR system that allows for simultaneous storage and playback of TV programming from a cable or satellite source."

Of course, this action will lead to even more appeals and this case will be stuck in the courts for even more years. And while Tivo tries to keep up with the pace of innovation, cable operators have not embraced Tivo software and have remained true to their own DVR boxes. Cablevision keeps pushing a headend based DVR. And networks are putting more and more content on VOD. The DVR may soon become an unnecessary device. Tivo may be losing their competitive edge.

Is Howard Stern Retiring From Sirius Radio?

Sirius stock is just a buck, Howard Stern's contract is up for renewal, and his investment is not paying off. So what is the self proclaimed "Master of all Media" supposed to do when his listening audience is miniscule. Perhaps get back to free radio.

While Howard's humor is not appreciated by all, what makes him funnier is pushing the line, not crossing it. When he is forced to stay on one side of the line of decency, his humor becomes more biting, more targeted, more creative. With too much freedom comes the low brow humor, the easy joke, the gross simply to be gross. Rules were Howard's enemy but they also gave him something to talk about and a tension that can make for truly funny.

Will Howard resign with Sirius or go back to terrestrial radio? While it is hard to read a lot into his current comments, it is clear to me that it is time to take the risk again and get back to basics. Over the air radio misses Howard and I believe Howard misses the larger audiences also.

Apple's WWDC Conference Opens Today And...

Apple's annual Worldwide Developers Conference opens this morning in San Francisco and once again the world awaits news on what is next from Apple. Of course, we have already seen the prototype of the next generation of iPhone. Will there be more? And what is in store for the iPad, iTouch, and Mac line of computers. And will more be said on his Apple TV, a device that never really got off the ground. Not only are fans interested in hearing what is in store, the stock market is watching, too.

Will price discounts be announced, software or operating system upgrades, or changes to the iTunes store? Perhaps more partnership deals to ensure more APPs make it through the pipeline to its devices. And there is always the classic Columbo line, "Just one more thing" to wait for. The bigger the news, the bigger the swing on Wall Street. Will today be one for the record books.

iPad the Savior of Newspapers and Magazines

Apple's iPad may be what ultimately rescues the newspaper and magazine industry. "Companies are paying newspapers and magazines up to five times as much to place ads in their iPad applications as what similar advertising costs on regular websites." And add to that a rise in subscription and content will remain king once again. The iPad appeal is that it allows print to be refreshed and updated at a moment's notice. it expands the print article to include video to augment the story. Just imagine Sports Illustrated not just writing about a perfect call gone bad by an umpire's poor call, but link the video and watch it along with reading the analysis.

No longer will newspapers be thrown onto the driveway every morning; rather, downloaded to your device. Coupons sent electronically and moved from iPad to mobile phone. And like a printed piece, authorized to be shared with others in your family. Will the iPad replace print altogether. Not immediately. For some, it will be hard to give up print. But over time, it will be the norm.

Cable Can Succeed As Hulu Fails

As Hulu tries to reinvent itself as a subscription service, it loses its foothold on the consumer. "Hulu, the free online TV hub, may be coming to Microsoft's Xbox gaming console soon as a subscription service. Microsoft plans to unveil the deal with Hulu at its E3 conference on June 14, according to tech blog Gear Live." A subscription service, despite where it is offered, causes the consumer to reconsider the value proposition.

At that point, it opens the door for cable to come in with its content and provide added (free) value by offering it online. Such is the case with Comcast which is offering its Fancast service as the opportunity as an authenticated customer to watch programming across multiple screens.

Customers that cut the cord are looking for other distribution platforms beyond cable that offer them the content they desire at a more reasonable price point. And while Netflix's subscription service provides tons of movies, both as streams and DVDs, a Hulu subscription requires the consumer to reassess its value over what cable offers with on demand, DVR, and online and what else is available free to watch over the web.

Will consumers buy Hulu? I strongly doubt that they can convert themselves from free to pay and compete. There is too much free content still accessible to consume. Has Hulu outlived its usefulness - perhaps!

Steve Jobs Believes The iPad Will Help Print Media

Steve Jobs, Apple's CEO, spoke at the Wall Street Journal's AllThingsD Conference and had plenty to say. One thing said loud and clear was the belief that media should be paid and and has value. "And he offered publishers advice: 'The biggest lesson Apple has learned is: Price it aggressively and go for volume. And anytime we haven’t done that, we’ve had more attenuated success.'" That certainly has been the strategy behind the iTune platform which has led to wide usage and revenue.

The iPad and other digital devices offers consumers a faster, better distribution platform for print content. When it is physically printed, its information gets quickly old; we live in an age of now and a need for the most current updates. Offering newspaper and magazine content on a digital window encourages consumers to purchase to get access, provided that this info is not available free elsewhere. Too much free content kills the pay model.