Netflix Should Concern Cable Operators

Netflix had a good quarter. A double digit rise in revenue, a 10% increase in subscribers, and riding the way of new TV sets launching internet enabled TVs. "The new subscribers added since the third quarter marked a record for the online rental company, which offers DVDs through the mail and streaming content for 12.3 million customers. Netflix also lost fewer customers in the fourth quarter, as the churn rate, or the number of people who don't renew their monthly subscription, dropped to 3.9 percent from 4.4 percent in the third quarter and from 4.2 percent in 2008's final quarter. The company added nearly 3 million new subscribers over the full year."

So where are those customers coming from? I suspect that cable might have to add Netflix to the list of other competitors, telco and satellite, stealing customers. Netflix is a cheaper alternative to premium services, like HBO, Showtime, and others. And it now offers customers both a mail service and online component. As consumers, especially in a difficult economy, Netflix has emerged as a better positioned entertainment value. Cable needs to wake up and pay more attention to the value and service they provide; Otherwise, customers will pick the lowest price alternative.

Happy With The iPad

First the good news. The iPad has finally arrived and consumers can finally see what Apple's tablet can do. Its price tag is extremely reasonable, starting at under $500 and it meets the basic expectations for e-book reading, music listening, and video watching. The bad news is that it looks like an oversized iPod and still requires connection through the AT&T platform. So how will consumers react?

I understand it lacks a camera; not sure that is a big deal. It has carved out another e-book niche that could allow them to sell books through their itune platform. And that may give Kindle a reason to worry. "Mr. Jobs said Apple so far had relationships with five major publishers — Hachette, Penguin, HarperCollins, Simon & Schuster and Macmillan — and was eager to make deals with others. Publishers will be able to charge $12.99 to $14.99 for most general fiction and nonfiction books." That according to today's New York Times.

For me, I am not an early adopter. I always expect that the first generation has too many limitations and future editions come too quickly. Apple is a perfect example of this with their iPod, iPhone, and other devices. I expect by end of year, iPad 2.0 will be at least 2x better. Second, the name lacks appeal; I guess all the other i(name) were taken. Damn you IHOP! Still, couldn't they find a jazzier name: iTab, iLet, or iHmm, to name a few. And lastly, what happened to the Verizon deal? I'm guessing that Apple still had to wait for it's AT&T exclusive to expire. For me, I think I will wait, too.

Some Web Subscription Doesn't Work

The WSJ created a successful model to keep its print subscription alive by putting its web content behind a wall. The NYT is planning the same thing. But will it work? It clearly hasn't worked for Long Island's Newsday. "Only 35 users have signed up to access Newday's web site since they put up their $5 a week paywall three months ago." If that number seems disturbingly low, it is. But is it a surprise? Is Newsday delivering unique information that a web surfer can't find elsewhere? I doubt it. Hence, the low number. For the NYT and others that build a pay wall, the content must be unique, exclusive, and demonstrated to be of perceived value for the user. WSJ has done it with unique business news content, exclusive interviews, branded columnists, and valuable knowledge. Aligned with its print, it became the best combination of print and web.

And while that number is low, it could be argued that Newsday is primarily used as a retention tool by Cablevision within its market. It's cable customers enjoy free web access while its competitor, Verizon Fios, and their customers must pay. Has that improved Cablevision's leadership in the market? It certainly can be positioned that way and help to explain why the number of paid subscribers is so low. More important for Newsday is to announce the number of unique and page visits to their web site, as well as gross ad revenue. That would certainly help to clarify its value.

Still there should be many more Fios customers that also read Newsday and would enjoy web access. Perhaps a better job of marketing the Newsday web subscription is required. Let's hope there is a brighter web future for Newsday.

Will Apple's Tablet Save Newspapers and Magazines and Change Behavior?

Yesterday, Apple announced great earnings of iPhones and computers. Tomorrow, Apple will introduce its Tablet to the world. Lots of speculation on what it can and can't do and lots of comparisons to other devices like its own iPhone, Kindle, and others. And lastly, through who's network, AT&T or Verizon, will it connect to the web. Tomorrow's announcement should be a doozy.

"Although Apple has proved its deftness at creating trendy devices and a digital store in which publishers could sell their wares, Gartner Inc. analyst Allen Weiner said there will be plenty of trial and error before newspaper, magazine and book publishers figure out the 'fine art' of creating digital editions that take advantage of the device's graphics and video." It is certainly hard to replace the simplicity and low price of printed material. It is easy to carry, easy to read, and even easy to throw away. Today, we stuff our pockets, pocketbooks, and even belt straps with devices to help us stay connected. A Tablet is certainly much bigger to carry.

So I wonder, who will create the idea bag for both men and women that will make this new device easily portable? Especially for men, this "Man Bag" needs to be the hot new accessory that will change how many carry other personal items as well. Including the Tablet, a "Man Bag" could carry a guy's wallet, keys, and gum. Men will finally have clean pocket lines and no more wallet bulges. Watch carefully. A device that changes human behavior is an absolute game changer!

Hulu mulls $5 charge for shows

Missed a TV Show? Want to watch a movie for free? Well Hulu has quickly found a following with the computer crowd, offering free access to tons of TV and Movie titles. Well that may soon end. "HULU, the free TV web site, has been floating the idea that it may start charging -- and now it's talking price. How much to watch shows online? About $5, according to published reports. A pay plan -- if it is adopted -- won't be in place until this fall at the earliest, officials told the Los Angeles Times."

So, would you pay $5/month to watch shows on your computer? As a cable subscriber, probably not. I suspect most users are not willing to pay and will scour the web for free access at places like TV.com and other sites. Others will go searching their on demand for this free content. Why pay if the milk is free elsewhere.

Will a subscription model work for Hulu? Is $5 below the threshold that consumers won't mind seeing it deducted monthly from their credit cards or checking account. My daughter had me sign her up for Club Penguin and I have $5 deducted every month. I forget it till I see it appear on my bank statement and each month I do, I wonder whether she is using the subscription or should I just cancel it. I then forget about it till the next month. I suspect Hulu hopes the same thing happens for them. People sign up and then let it slide every month. Heck it's only 5 bucks. And that will decide how successful this pay model will become.

Apple and Verizon Wireless To Work Together?

While it has been no secret that Apple is preparing to present its version of a tablet, it has been speculated whether it would run across the AT&T platform or through Verizon Wireless. Clearly, AT&T has been a problem for Apple, especially when it comes to phone calls. And now Apple may finally end that exclusive relationship and add Verizon to the mix.

"Apple is expected to name Verizon Wireless as one of its carriers with its anticipated unveiling of a new tablet device on Wednesday, sources told The Post. That means Apple head Steve Jobs will probably introduce a Verizon iPhone, ending AT&T's exclusive hold on the hot smartphone."

As a Verizon Wireless customer, that is why I have resisted switching providers to buy an iPhone. I was one of the first to switch to Verizon when number portability began. I was fed up with spotty signals, dropped calls, and couldn't wait to switch. Even an Apple iPhone couldn't seduce me to switch back. If it proves true, I might just have to pick an iPhone up.

Howard Stern Leaving Sirius to Return to Terrestrial Radio?

Sirius is trading under $0.70 and Howard Stern, its superstar, may be leaving. For Sirius, digital radio should be more than Howard. Access to all audio sporting events, non-stop music, and unlimited genre choice. For Howard, Sirius was 5 years ago, freedom from FCC violations and the opportunity to make tons of money. He may escaped one but not the other and his future may be back on FCC controlled radio.

Howard lost his wide audience when he moved to Sirius, and perhaps also lost his throne as King of All Media. Is ego more important than money, 5 years later? And can today's radio handle his shock jock antics again. It seems likely it is posturing to renew his Sirius deal, but I doubt the next contract will be as rich as the first.

N. Y. Times to Charge for Frequent Access to Its Web Site

The internet can't remain free. An advertising only business doesn't seem to be enough to carry a business. Broadcast needs license fees to augment is ad model and so do newspapers and magazines. And so, in a not so surprising move, will start to charge for viewing content. "Starting in January 2011, a visitor to NYTimes.com will be allowed to view a certain number of articles free each month; to read more, the reader must pay a flat fee for unlimited access. Subscribers to the print newspaper, even those who subscribe only to the Sunday paper, will receive full access to the site without any additional charge."

The Wall Street Journal was the first down this path and have successfully retained its subscriber model by offering web access with print. The NYT has been watching and is following suit. The question is who is next to follow, USA Today, NY Post? This is he beginning of change, more and more content will be going behind subscription walls.

Hello XBox, Goodbye Set Top Box

Not a fan of your cable company and its set top box. Be patient, change is a coming. Gamers, with access to XBox Live may soon be able to ditch their cable for programming through their game system. Xbox already enables movies on demand via Netflix and other apps, and is now starting to do deals to get cable programming directly.

"They want Xbox to be seen not merely as a gaming machine for teenagers, but as a media portal for parents and grandparents, too. The company is even producing shows for users: it is in the middle of the second season of '1 vs. 100,' an interactive version of a game show that was on NBC. The content ambitions do not end there. Microsoft has held in-depth talks with the Walt Disney Company about a programming deal with ESPN, according to people close to the talks, who requested anonymity because the talks were intended to be private....Similarly, users of the Sony PlayStation can tune into BBC shows and see Weather Channel updates, as well as stream Netflix. Last week, Netflix extended its streaming service to the Nintendo Wii."

Who needs a DVR when everything is accessible on demand. Even so, adding DVR capabilities to the XBox and enable access via antenna for broadcast programming and say so long to your cable subscription. Cable's loss will be Microsoft's gain.