Some CES Devices In Search Of A Problem

While I have not attended CES the last few years, I do enjoy reading and watching the various news media updates on the latest gadgets and devices being highlighted at the show.  But it makes me wonder whether they will be hits or misses.  In some cases, I hear about new products and wonder if they are trying to solve a problem that doesn't exist or even simply creating a solution to a problem they hope people will want solved.

As to misses, I remember the introduction of 3D TV and the accompanying 3D glasses and thought it was something I wouldn't want on the home.  Heck I don't generally like 3D in the movies.  This year, it is the release of 4K, higher resolution than current HD and I wonder how high is high.  I mean, our eyes can only register so much clarity and the rest is wasted.  And the memory requirements to download or store 4K content will only clog an already clogged and sometimes slow broadband stream.  So for me I say 4K doesn't fly with consumers.

I saw devices that provide you a constant commentary on your heartbeat and another wearable device that measure your  golf swing.  I swear other golfers will be fuming if you keep looking down at your tablet or smartphone during a game, and slowing down and distracting what is meant to be a social game.  And while knowing my heartbeat is nice, I don't need speakers to hear it. 

My biggest issue with wearable devices are the ones that cause distraction from our normal activities.  Don't look at your watch phone while driving or your smart bracelet or Google Glasses while walking across a street.  You might get hit by a bus and your heart beat won't matter anymore.

Need to replace your stove.  One new oven includes a tablet that will tell the kids when the dinner is ready.   That one made me chuckle.  So take some of these new consumer electronic announcements for what they are worth.  Some may become the next must have device and others simply solutions searching for a problem.

2014 Media Predictions

It is the first Monday of a new year, CES is set to start again, and the stock market is off to a lukewarm pace.  And so it may just be time to come up with some 2014 media predictions.  So what should we expect from this new year?

Everyone is touting this year as the year for wearable technology.  Samsung offered its Galaxy Gear watch and others have devices to measure calories, steps, and heartbeat.  So the timing seems right for Apple to finally release its iWatch along with "softwear" and software that makes it an integral part of the Apple family.  That means deals with Nike and other companies to bring more connectivity to the devices and more useful data.  And of course the iWatch must be uniquely styled to represent an ergonomic and fashionable device.

What I don't predict and hope that Apple agrees, is a smart TV.  The margins are awful, manufacturers had a huge miss with 3D, and smart TVs can best be created with a box behind the set.  If you have to create a TV set, make a dumb big screen monitor, but let other devices run it. 

And speaking of boxes, its time for Apple TV to get bigger, stronger, better.  I also wouldn't be surprised if TiVo finds itself an acquisition target with Samsung or Apple willing to own.  For me, the box behind the HDTV set will become the most crucial piece of equipment.

In the world of cable, I expect consolidation on both the operator and the programmer side.  Time Warner Cable seems the most likely candidate these days, but should a deal fall through, I think Cablevision remains the next likely candidate.  On the network side, I expect a programmer like AMC Networks and Scripps to both be on the market.  Smaller programmers too will find themselves at risk; perhaps even changing their business model to focus entirely on the streaming marketplace. 

And speaking of streaming, I expect that by year end, Hulu's owners will have tried and failed to get along.  The service will be back up for sale and networks will focus on their own streaming platforms.  TV Everywhere will become (ATC) for Authenticated TV Everywhere and licensing deals with cable operators will include authorizations to stream.  Regardless, cable subscription will continue to drop although at a slower rate.  A better economy will mean that consumers will keep their cable subscription AND subscribe to streaming services like Netflix.  

For print media, Time Inc will disengage from its parent, Time Warner and build extensive video relationships.  Successful print companies will merge their digital and print subscriptions for one price and consumers can choose to donate their print copy to schools, libraries, and other establishments or continue to receive.  Print and broadcast will build better synergies to provide more extensive news coverage and deeper analysis.  Writers will report on air and encourage viewers to visit their site for more coverage. 

Radio may just see a resurgence.  Perhaps it is time for NBC to own some radio stations and here in the NY market to hear the familiar call of "W Ennnn B C".  CBS appears to be finding some success in radio and NBC would like to own a piece.  And streaming music will only get more competitive with Spotify, Pandora, Apple, and others pushing their subscription services through broadcast and cable. 

So those are some of my 2014 predictions.  While I have no research or facts or rumor to back any of it up, it just seems like these scenarios are likely to happen.  How many do I get right; well a scorecard at the end of the year may just be the way to go. 

NY Times To Identify Native Ads As Paid Posts

The New York Times believes in separation of church and state, or in the world of media, the separation of editorial and advertisement.  And to assure that their readers also know the difference, the NYT,  per its publisher, "will set apart such articles online with a different typeface. It will also feature a color bar, the advertiser’s logo and, perhaps most importantly, the label 'paid post.'”  That they will take such measures to clearly differentiate is notable, it may undo the value of native advertising to make users think it is editorial content. 

What it does do is put The New York Times on higher ground in that they so actively showcase the differentiation for the sake of real journalism.  By creating such transparency between ad and editorial, they have set themselves apart from other news and information web sites.  Will others follow and do more to assure their readers of what is independent and what is sponsored; for the sake of the advertising community and the future of advertising, I hope so.

Have a Happy Holiday!

Hulu Confirms Why Owners Didn't Sell

For all the conflict whether the owners should sell off Hulu, the decision to keep onto their prized digital streaming distribution platform appears to have paid off.  In 2013, Hulu can count 5 million paying subscribers and $1 bullion dollars in revenue.  Yes Austin Powers, I said $1 billion dollars!  Not bad for a business that is only five years old. 

Hopefully the owners have now decided that they can indeed work together and build a common strategy in what is shaping as a very competitive streaming entertainment landscape.  Certainly, Hulu is not the leader in the category.  Netflix is twice the size and although it doesn't have the ad stream that Hulu does, it subscription revenue is almost four times higher.  And Amazon Prime, which operates its streaming business inside its mega retail environment, is equally as powerful.  For these and others in the space, it is still a very nascent business.  The growth potential remains enormous.

With Christmas around the corner, more and more consumers will be buying their gaming platforms, tablets, Roku and TiVo and Apple TV boxes, and they will all be looking for content to power these devices.  Streaming and downloads will continue to grow and the broadband infrastructure will have to figure out how to accommodate all this traffic.  And Hulu, Netflix, and others can continue to ride the growth curve.  So kudos Hulu owners for staying with the platform and not selling out; you have hit one milestone and, with a strong strategic plan, on the right path to future success.

Facebook Adding Video Ads

Search and display ads are nice, but Facebook hopes it can add a new revenue stream with video advertising.  "Facebook reportedly plans to charge $1 million to $2.5 million a day for video campaigns, depending on the size of the audience a marketer is trying to reach. But that price range could reduce advertiser interest."  Video ads might start running the moment you land on Facebook, although the plans seems to be to mute the audio until clicked on.  How Facebook users will react to autoplay ads remains to be seen; most likely, they have already seen this feature on other websites.  Still, it may prove distracting.

Regardless of this new video ad focus, Facebook's real challenge may be that the younger demo is moving away from Facebook to Instagram and that will only skew older the current audience to Facebook.  Will advertisers still want to buy this older demo or move budgets to Instagram and other websites?  For now, Facebook is right to add video ads although they may end up turning off the autoplay feature to gain more credibility of the ad views.  It is an important next step and one that might just find its way to Instagram, too.

Beyonce Proves Social Media Marketing Power

Without any fanfare or traditional promotional advertising, not even a traditional release date, Beyonce released a digital music album on iTunes using the power of social media to sell it.  And the results have been extraordinary.  "Beyonce's latest album broke iTunes sales records, Apple said Monday.  BEYONCÉ, which the singer announced on Facebook's Instagram mobile service, became the fastest selling album on iTunes with 828,773 purchased in its first three days, Apple reported.  The album also broke the U.S. first-week album record with 617,213 sold, the company added." 

Certainly others will try to emulate her strategy and not everyone can compete.  She comes with a huge following, a track record of success, and a high name recognition.  That this album made such a mark before any song was released or played to a radio audience demonstrates the marketing power her name alone must have. 

But recognition also needs to be payed to Instagram as the social driver of her iTunes' success.  The power of her appeal and influence and ability to sell through social media is quite powerful.  And she adeptly pulled it off.  Her audience, the ones that follow her on Instagram, responded to this unexpected Holiday present by quickly downloading and sharing their "find" to their followers.  Over 800,000 in only 3 days; in a word, unbelievable!

Charter Ready To Buy Time Warner Cable

Charter has a number in mind and it might not match what Time Warner Cable wants.  Whether they can find common ground or a low ball bid encourages a counter bid by another remains to be seen.  Perhaps Cablevision might be willing to prop up the bid with Charter in exchange for a big piece, say the NYC DMA.  Or perhaps Charter truly believes that given the continual loss of basic subscribers, Time Warner Cable's future earning potential could decline.  Still the value is in the infrastructure and the opportunity to gain more cost efficiency and more reach for broadband and wireless business opportunities.  And given the possible low initial bid, this acquisition process may take some time to close. 

Instagram Adds Best Friend Feature

It seems sometimes we don't want to share everything with everyone.  There are times we simply want to communicate with a smaller circle of friends, our "best friends" so to speak.  Well Instagram wants to let you private message your select few and has created Instagram Direct, "a new private messaging service built into the platform that will allow users to send a photo or video, along with a caption, to between one and 15 people." 

Now you can limit who gets to see that picture ... or can you.  While on first blush, used wisely, it enables smaller group messaging, but so does iMessage, for those on unlimited data plans.  "Because such messages don't count against SMS messages allotted by wireless plans, these apps effectively allow smartphone owners to communicate using only their data plans." 

Of course, teens, the largest demographic using Instagram should remain careful that anything posted is shareable.  Even a photo to a select few can get reposted and reposted again.  So be careful what kind of snarky or "mean girl" comments you might be considering sending in an Instagram Direct message.  Nothing is really private when it is posted.  Snapchat fans learned that the hard way, too.

Aereo Wants A Definitive Ruling

Question, when is a broadcaster not a broadcaster?  When they don't transmit over the air.  And does it matter where an antenna is located to receive those signals and display them on a screen?  According to Aereo, it does not.  Despite all the additional manipulations that Aereo does to move the signal from antenna to home, their bottom line contention is that they have every right as consumers have had to make copies since the days of the VHS tape.  Could they be accused from reselling the signal, costs to rent the antenna and provide additional value to the free signal.  And that seems to be the center of their argument.  So with a number of court victories already, Aereo wants a definitive ruling from the Supreme Court to end this continuous litigation.  "We want this resolved on the merits rather than a wasteful war of attrition,' said Aereo Chief Executive Chet Kanojia in a statement." For Aereo, such a move makes complete sense. 

And while Cablevision is not a fan of Aereo, they don't agree with the broadcasters argument as it relates to "cloud-based technology and future innovation", according to a spokesperson.  And so the issues that the Supreme Court are asked to review are far more complicated than just the acquiring and re-airing of signals.   And until the Supreme Cort decides to rule, lower courts will keep ruling within their jurisdictions.