Today Show Upheaval

While it does not yet seem to be confirmed by NBC, the rumor mill is abuzz that Ann Curry's days as co-host of TODAY are numbered.  Not since the days of Deborah Norville have we had such trouble with the morning show.  Consumers, heck most human beings are uncomfortable with change.  Only when it is shown to be better, faster, easier, that we finally let down our guards and make the change a permanent choice.  TODAY show is facing that challenge now; will whoever replaces Ann be a better fit and a more preferable host to keep its audience happy.  Or will it encourage sampling of other network morning shows.

For NBC, host challenges seem to be following them.  It's only been a few years since Conan - Leno was the  front page issue.  And while WNBC is a NYC station, its news program just wen through its own shake-up last week with the departure of Sue Simmons from the evening news, only to be  replaced with a younger, cheaper version of herself.  As change is uncomfortable for people and viewers like the familiarity of its hosts, the acceptance of a new host to replace the old always comes with possibility that  viewers won't stay through the switch.

For WNBC, the choice was perhaps a financial one; for the TODAY show, it may be more about the loss in viewership and the need to recapture them through a host switch.  It eventually worked for TODAY Show when Katie Couric came on board and the audience loved her.  For Ann Curry' successor, we can only wait and see if the same thing can happen.

Time Warner Cable Would Like To Kill DVR Functionality

Enjoy fast forwarding through the ads on your DVR recorded programming, Time Warner Cable may just be trying to thwart your efforts.  "The patent, which lists Time Warner Cable principal architect Charles Hasek as the inventor, details how the nation's second largest cable MSO may be able prevent viewers from skipping TV commercials contained in programs stored on physical DVRs it deploys in subscriber homes, network-based DVRs and even recording devices subscribers purchase at retail outlets."  Good news for advertisers, bad news for consumers.  And if successful, they could then license their patent to other cable operators and change the landscape completely.

Time Warner Cable may be reluctant to use too quickly, although they do disable fast forward on their exclusive "Look Back" and "Start Over" features. For overbuilders and satellite providers, the offer of a DVR with a more consumer friendly DVR could be the impetus to cause more subs to leave Time Warner.   In fact, it could make Dish's Hopper DVR that much more desirable.

TWC isn't the only operator trying to salvage the advertiser value in video programming.  "Comcast  recently submitted a patent application that details how it could deliver alternative commercials to subscribers that hit the fast-forward button on their remotes to skip ads."  Or an ad being placed over an ad being fast forwarded through.  We may need to go backwards and start recording again on a VCR so we can retain control over our fast forward functionality.

Is Nook Decline An Indication Of Trouble?

Sometimes it is hard to see the forest through the trees; with the latest quarterly decline of the Nook, one could ask if this is part of a product change or a consumer shift.   Sales for the year rose from the year earlier, but sales for their fiscal fourth quarter declined.  Was the decline due to the introduction of a newer model and consumers waiting to buy it or due to a shift from e-readers to tablets?  Now that digital has been broken out from the brick and mortar business, investors can see more clearly which segments are rising and which are hurting.

More interesting is the effect the future introduction of the Microsoft Surface has on the tablet industry this year.  With Apple, Amazon, and Barnes and Noble competing in the tablet space, Microsoft Surface could take away share from these guys.  With Microsoft's investment in B&N, should there be more synergy.  The Nook app store running inside Surface or sales of Surface at all B&N bookstores.  It makes me wonder, are they partnering or are they competing?

Cord Cutting Stats Show Rise in Free TV

Today's NY Post article continues to confirm that consumers are pushing away from cable subscription, especially given the current economy.  "Nearly 18 percent of all US households with TVs are watching old-fashioned broadcasts delivered for free over the airwaves, up from 15 percent of homes last year, according to research firm GfK Media."  This 3% rise from last year follows a rise of 1% from the year prior.  With cable costs rising and digital antenna and online providing a lower cost alternative, this may be the start of a growing trend.  Should we find that next year, the increase in over the air rises greater than 3%, then we can clearly say that this shift is becoming a growing trend.

But cord cutting is only one indication of trouble in cable subscription.  The other is cord shaving or cord shifting, the reduction of services to lower monthly charges.  "GfK’s report also found that 16 percent of households downgraded TV service this year through March, while only 11 percent of TV households said they had increased service."  Is this a trend too, probably so.  When the  economy eventually does improve, it will be interesting to see if these same households go back to cable again or have found enough satisfaction from over the air and online.  I suspect that they will.

Microsoft Announces Surface Tablet, But What Does It Do

The announcement of Microsoft's latest tablet, Surface, seemed to follow the Apple cookbook, little notice, no advance word, and then the talking heads.  Microsoft seems to be embarking on more of a follower strategy where once in their life cycle they were seen as more the leader.  In this case they are copying the Apple playbook and may soon decide they need their own retail presence.

What surprised me most about Microsoft's new tablet is that I get very little about what differentiates it from other tablets, most especially the iPad, and what unique benefits it offers to consumers.  "The software giant could incorporate its Skype Internet phone software in a tablet, which could make for a compelling rival to Apple's FaceTime video-calling feature on iPhone and iPad. And integration of Microsoft's popular Kinect camera, used on Xbox, could give a tablet an unusual twist — voice and motion controls."  But none of this seemed to be confirmed attributes of the Surface.    How strong will the synergy be to other Microsoft operating system PCs; how quickly will a back office app store be started to provide the applications to make the Surface function?  Will Microsoft hold off on an iPad friendly Office suite to give its Surface an extra edge?

Some speculate that the USB port on the Surface gives it an immediate edge.  Apple continues to believe that the cloud and wireless are the ideal connections.  As more and more devices come equipped with blue tooth, the need for any wired ports may become ancient history pretty quickly.  As for the future of the Surface, we will wait for its actual release to determine if it is the next Xbox success or Zune failure.

Microsoft Tablet - More To Learn Today

By later this afternoon, we should all finally learn what Microsoft's announcement will reveal and the plan for a tablet should be confirmed.  For now, speculation is that it will align with their recent investment with Barnes and Noble and synergy with their Xbox product.   The Xbox makes perfect sense as I speculated in an earlier blog.  What capabilities B&N bring are less known; could it be that it incorporates an app to read Nook purchased books, possibly.  Or that it will use the retail locations of B&N to sell its tablet; certainly not an exclusive relationship as I'm sure every other electronic retailer, Best Buy included, that will also want a piece.

Is Apple worried, of course not.  Without an engine of content behind it, like the iTunes app store, Microsoft will have a lot of catching up to do.  The Xbox angle will help, but I wonder if it will be enough.

Will A Microsoft Tablet Perform Better Than Their Zune?

Microsoft is scheduled to make a big announcement on Monday.  And the advance word is that it will be a tablet, competing with the Apple  iPad and others.  While historically, Microsoft has licensed it's software on other products, the  plan may be for Microsoft to manufacture its own tablet.  The question is, can Microsoft catch up to Apple or will this attempt be as unsuccessful as their Zune product, an iPod wannabee?  So far the track record for Microsoft hasn't been good, but the mantra must be, never stop trying.

"The problem with this strategy in the tablet market is that Apple and Google have disrupted the business model.  Google offers its software for free, and its hardware partners struggle to match Apple on the price and quality of the iPad."  For Microsoft, the challenge must be to bring something new to the product line that competitors haven't done before and to make it better.  I can imagine that one way to take a bite out of Apple would be to price its table noticeably lower than the iPad.  Second would be to build in unique functionality that interacts seamlessly with its Xbox product.  A second screen perhaps to make game playing even more immersive or controller elements from the tablet to the  screen.  Marketing their tablet to their Xbox loyalists could also help capture a significant share quickly, provided that a needed benefit is demonstrated.

So stay tuned for Microsoft's Monday announcement.  The tablet space is getting more interesting, indeed.

Sirius And Liberty Wrestle For Control

The fight for ownership of SiriusXM continues to play out as Liberty Media tries to buy enough shares of the stock to claim ownership of the asset.  Mel Karmazin, current CEO, has no interest in ceding control and is known for not liking to be less than lead dog in the fight.

"At the heart of the battle appears to be Mr. Karmazin's conviction that Liberty shouldn't get control of Sirius without paying for it."  Which seems to mean that Karmazin is happy to depart if he gets his fair share.  With options currently valued near $170 million, the higher Karmazin can get Liberty to pay for the stock, the more money he can earn.  And while financial reward may not be Karmazin's only win, it sure can lessen the blow of losing control to Liberty.

But it isn't all about the money and for Karmazin, perhaps the question would be, what would the next act in his career look like.  He may not want to start over again with another company and might hope that his work with Sirius can continue a while longer, provided that he can still maintain full control.  But should Liberty ultimately take ownership, that might not be possible.

Sign In With Facebook

It seems every time I open an app, I am given an option to sign in with email or sign in with Facebook.  From TripAdvisor  to foursquare to casual gaming sites, the option to use Facebook seems to overwhelm the page and choice.  And while I am happy to have a single sight to aggregate all my sign ins, I frankly don't want to post everything I do.  A vacation picture, yes; a blog, why not.  But searches for vacation sights, and announcements of high scores seems just too much information that I wish to share.  And frankly simply clutters the data landscape.

So when I do authorize Facebook, I feel the need to go the extra mile; turn off the postings, do not share, and do not reveal.  But sometimes you feel the need to look in from the outside to see that you are sharing only what you wish and controlling the information that you want to reveal.  It seems a tricky business and a fine line.  It seems to be why I prefer when I can sign in with the email address, I do.  Perhaps it leads to spam in my email account, but better than spam to my Facebook timeline.