Howard Stern: Will He Leave Sirius?

Will Howard sign his contract? Others at Sirius have committed. "Today, reports emerged that the latest on-air talent to re-sign with the satellite radio company are Opie and Anthony, who are said to have signed on for two more years. The company also appears to be close to finalizing a deal with the National Football League." It may be a negotiation ploy, but I think Howard will eventually re-sign. He can set his terms, develop new shows and reap the rewards of producing and not just being the online talent.

Check out the article and vote your prediction.

FilmOn Sued By Broadcasters

Historically, broadcasters have offered their signal over the air, free to homes. Their revenue came from advertising. Today, they still offer free, over the air, but they also are getting license fees from cable operators. So a site offering to redistribute free content to devices sounds promising for consumers, but problematic to the license fee model. "On Friday, CBS, NBC, ABC and Fox filed a copyright infringement lawsuit against FilmOn.com, which offers subscribers who pay $9.99 a month access to live high definition feeds of TV online. The suit follows a battle with another online streaming outfit ivi, Inc., dual moves that indicate the major broadcast networks are starting to get aggressive in policing the Internet for unauthorized transmissions."

Why let another company make money over your content? Broadcasters may be right in stopping and perhaps should kick themselves for not being more aggressive in bringing their content to online devices. Flo TV is dying, Slingbox is a stopgap solution. Broadcasters have not been proactive in getting their signals seen through wireless connections. FilmOn has simply discovered an opportunity to regain eyeballs for broadcasters. Perhaps better to partner with them instead of sue.

More Info Needed on Comcast NBC Merger

Comcast and NBC are hoping that before the end of the year, the FCC will approve the merger of these two media powerhouses. It seems, however, that the FCC is not in the same rush. "The Federal Communications Commission is requesting additional information from Comcast Corp. and NBC Universal as it reviews the cable operator's plan to acquire a controlling stake in the media company." Can all the information received so far, plus this new information, be analyzed before the end of the year so that the FCC can make a decision? And doesn't the Department of Justice have a voice in the approval process, too. I wonder if a decision could possibly be reached before the start of the new year.

As to the question, should NBC and Comcast be allowed to merge, many see negative consequences to such a move. "The combination has raised worries among satellite companies, rival cable operators and other subscription video providers that Comcast would use its control of NBC Universal to push up prices for must-have programming or even withhold it altogether." I too wonder the overall impact to competition and to content received outside the cable pipeline.

It seems NBC is closing those deals now, before the potential merger. New deals with Netflix and others enable NBC Universal programming to be viewed without a cable subscription. Should NBC and Comcast merge, could those future deals be denied by management. Does this merger do too much to hurt competition? And should their be a delineation between distribution and content? Time Warner separated its programming arm from Time Warner Cable. CBS/Viacom got out of the cable platform more than a decade ago and ABC has no ownership either. The Comcast NBC merger would be a first. And the FCC and DOJ have a lot to consider.

Sirius Subscribers Keep Growing

A friend of mine recently bought a new car with Sirius included. He took the trial membership and while his commute in the morning is short, he still enjoys his 15 minutes of Howard Stern each way. So I asked, "will you keep it when the free trial expires?" His answer, as long as he has the lease, he will continue to keep it. With the economy modestly improving, and car sales ticking upwards, Sirius' strategy of including in the car appears to be paying off. "The satellite radio company’s raised guidance means it expects its net subscriber growth for fiscal 2010 to be about 1.3 million, ahead of its August prediction of 1.1 million."

It seems Sirius is seeing an uptick. It most likely makes sense to assure your lead star, Howard Stern, remains part of the content strategy. He may not be the only reason consumers keep their satellite radio, but he does reach a very loyal audience.

Have You Seen Your CableCard?

Cable companies would have you believe that the CableCard program, designed to enable other devices to interact on the cable pipeline, was a success. But have you ever seen a CableCard? Do you even know that one is in your cable set top box? Heck, I haven't even bothered to look. In fact... "the 10 biggest U.S. cable operators have deployed more than 22.75 million leased set-top boxes with CableCards since the Federal Communications Commission's integrated set-top ban went into effect in July 2007 -- a rule the cable industry claims has cost more than $1 billion to no discernable effect. Meanwhile, those same cable operators have deployed approximately 531,000 CableCards for use in retail devices such as TiVo DVRs, according to figures supplied by the National Cable & Telecommunications Association to the FCC Thursday." That represents a little over 2.3%. Hardly a dent. And demonstrates that the cable companies don't want 3rd party devices touching their cable wires.

It is also why consumer electronic companies, fed up with the cable industry, have bypassed CableCard technology and put their efforts into internet enabled devices. Just go to Best Buy and ask for a CableCard enabled TV set. Good Luck. Now ask for a TV with internet connectivity and Netflix. Pick your model. Cable has made their bed and ultimately will face increasing competition from broadband connectivity.

Can cable catch up? Can they find a more meaningful solution that keeps the consumer tethered to their wire. Or will cord cuttig become that much more of a reality. At the moment, let's be clear, the CableCard model is broken. Consumers and competitors have found the workaround with internet connectivity; no set top box, no problem.

AOL: It's Content Not The Platform

AOL has separated from the mother ship. It is separated from Time Warner and on its own. And while Time Warner also separated its content from its distribution platform, AOL's content wasn't deemed synergistic to Time Warner's growth plans. On its own, AOL is in the midst of building and buying content companies to own a robust line of online content. The latest is Techcrunch.

"TechCrunch and its associated properties and conferences will join the AOL Technology Network while retaining their editorial independence, further bolstering AOL’s position as one of the world’s leading providers of high-quality, tech-oriented content." AOL sees a world of online news and information and a revenue stream derived through the ad platform. But have they learned anything from their time with a cable company? Will they look to build out a walled garden of subscription services, building a license fee model (like the Premium Hulu model) to capture a secondary revenue stream? Will that be one of their next announcements?

I like the commitment that AOL has taken. I'm sure a number of folks are reading content pages and have no clue they are owned by AOL. Whether the corporate name needs to be more visible to the consumer or that synergies can push those consumers from one AOL page to another is uncertain. What is certain is that AOL has become a leaner, meaner fighting machine, hoping to once again become the leader in an ever changing, fast moving industry.

Blackbook To Be Called Playbook

The R.I.M. Tablet officially has a name and it is called the Playbook. No, not like an NFL Playbook, although the sports connection may have been intentional. It's intention to get in front of the Apple iPad with a tablet positioned to attract the business user. "Unlike the most expensive iPads, the PlayBook cannot connect directly to cellular networks. Users will be able, however, to connect to the Internet through a wireless Bluetooth connection to their BlackBerrys or by using Wi-Fi networks." At the same time, Apple is expanding the distribution through retail deals with Target and others.

The key for each is software and content that can run on their respective device. The Playbook will be Flash compatible; the iPad currently is not. In addition, "Amazon said that it would introduce a Kindle e-book application for the PlayBook." It's still Apple's fight to lose, but competition is what keeps innovation advancing.

Theatrical Movies Coming Even Quicker To Your Home

If a family of four wants to go to the movies, admission alone could be $40 or more. Add popcorn, candy, and drinks and that amount could double. We have become a society that can not wait; instant gratification is our mantra. And so the movie windows, the times when a film moves from one distribution platform to another, has shortened. We once had to wait a year to watch a movie go from theater to DVD. But the rise of on demand and the demise of DVD sales has shortened that time period. And now movies are coming to On Demand even sooner.

"Right now, theaters get an exclusive period — 120 days, on average — to serve up new movies. Then the releases appear on television video-on-demand services at a price of about $4.99. Armed with the new copy-blocking technology, studios want to offer new movies on video-on-demand services about 45 days after they arrive in theaters, for a premium price of $24.99." So that family of four can avoid the theater and not wait many months to watch the film. For a higher price, access can come quicker. For the family it translates to a savings of $15 and more when you add refreshments. For studios, it brings a greater share of the revenue split. And if the consumer still thinks the cost to watch is too high, they can wait for the next distribution window, when the On Demand price point drops back down to $5.

It will also mean shorter windows for movies staying in theaters. Why should theater owners show a film at the same time it is accessible at a lower price at home. Movies will rotate through theater screens quickly. Theater owners must improve their business strategy and do more to improve their business. 3D has proved successful. Better seats, better food, better overall experience is another. Cleanliness would also help. Customers want to leave their home for a night out. A night at the movies will now need t be more special to keep the customer coming back for more. Otherwise, theatrical dollars will fall and On Demand dollars will keep rising.

New Content Challenging Old Content

It must be thirty years when the cry of "I want my MTV" first began as the battle cry for consumers pushing cable TV over broadcast. The rise of cable programming has deeply affected broadcast operations and ratings. Finally, the only thing left for broadcast to do was to buy out these cable networks. Why is NBC and ABC healthy - their sister programming and cable channels.

Well nothing lasts forever and the evolution continues with the rise of non cable, online programming. Now we have an upstart going after a cable channel directly. "Vevo, the Web music-video service backed by major labels Universal, Sony and EMI, is moving onto MTV's television turf. As part of a plan to make its music-themed content as widely viewed as possible, Vevo is working to launch a regular TV network that would compete with MTV's music-video network, MTV Hits." And here is the key distribution move. "While Vevo has no deals with the cable or satellite-TV firms at this stage, it is working closely with Web-enabled TV manufacturers, set-top boxes and other devices."

As TV manufacturers are bypassing the set top box, they are incorporating web enable technology into their screens. Programming without a cable cord. Broadband access yes, cable no. Will Vevo and other succeed. The beauty of cable channels is that they discovered a two-tiered revenue stream that broadcast did not till recently. Subscription license fees and ad revenue. That capital enables expenditure in more expensive and hopefully more desirable programming. Internet programming has yet to capture a license fee model although Hulu is trying with its premium level of service. Vevo may not have high programming costs to start but as they grow, new revenue streams will be a necessity.