NBC Affiliates May Be OK With Comcast Merger

Comcast is rounding up supporters of its merger plan and agreeing to conditions to get them to voice their approval to the FCC and DOJ. The latest are the NBC affiliates, whose business could be seriously affected by a merger of content and distribution. And what seems to be the biggest condition, that live sporting events like the Olympics, Super Bowl and others are kept on free TV and not moved to cable. "The affiliates argued in a joint submission to the Federal Communications Commission that Comcast could woo new customers by putting popular sports events on channels that require monthly fees. Comcast already serves 23.8 million customers as the nation's largest cable TV provider."

Really? Sporting events. That will keep your business alive post merger. Seriously, more sports are seen on cable then broadcast today. That is not going to save your business. How about the freedom of offering your program across multiple distribution platforms NOT owned by Comcast. Telco, wireless, IP, etc. How about a financial commitment to original programming production. NBC has shown that when you reduce your programming budget, your ratings suffer. The NBC affiliates need guarantees that they will get more original programming than the cable nets. Prove to them that the broadcast platform remains their most important business. Live sports remaining on broadcast is fine; but it is not the only condition that needs to be met to support this merger.

Other programmers, like Bloomberg and Wealth TV, are lining up on the other side of the merger fight. They argue that it would create an unlevel playing field for content creators and other distributor platforms, "saying the combined entity could discriminate against competing cable channels and have too much power in negotiations with organized labor."

In the meantime, much will be said to prove that the deal will be fair to all. Only post merger will the truth eventually unfold.

Cable Competition Fiercer

I personally never thought that the two year contract was a big stumbling block for consumers choosing FIOS over cable. It certainly was something touted in cable ads to scare prospective customers from switching from cable to telco. And for public record, I am still a cable customer, but every time I see my bill, I consider switching. I actually like d the two year contract cause it guaranteed the consumer that their price wouldn't rise unexpectedly.

But in a move to create a more level competitive playing field, Verizon is offering its FIOS service without any contract. "Verizon introduced the month-to-month option last month in Tampa, Fla., as well as in Pennsylvania, which 'met with very favorable customer response,' the telco said in announcing the expansion of the program Monday." Will this marketing move result in more connects, we will have to see. For those consumers who did see a contract as a stumbling block, this option should provide some of the flexibility they desire. Considering the time it takes for both companies to install their service, and the time the consumer must stay in their home waiting for the service call, quick switching should hopefully not be an option.

Will FIOS subscriptions rise through this new pricing offer, I'm sure in the short term there will be lift. For me, the key to success remains a combination of low pricing, great service, easy use, and terrific programming content. The latter three require strong differentiation marketing to let the consumer know all they offer that their competition doesn't. In a free market, competition is good and leads to the victor providing best for the consumer.

Does Broadband Access Need Regulation?

The FCC is finding new avenues to control the world wide web highway known by many as broadband. As content files get larger and traffic jams occur, will policing help the traffic flow. When I see real police manage traffic flow, I sometimes wonder if they are easing flow or simply exacerbating delays. The same may hold true on the broadband highway. The increase in government involvement tends to have the opposite effect on innovation. Allowing economic forces to work in a free market enables companies to technically improve and build better and better mousetraps in order to compete most effectively. With regulation, the impetus to improve is sometimes squashed.

"'Today's wireless and broadband markets require significant capital investment to anticipate and meet growing consumer demand,' said Mobile Future in a statement. 'Unfortunately, today's FCC action puts future growth and investment at risk and creates unnecessary turmoil in one of the key drivers of the U.S. economy.' Mobile Future members include AT&T and T-Mobile."

This action will surely be fought over years and will not find a quick resolution. Hopefully before regulation is in place, innovation can make the need for regulation unneccessary.

Apple iPhone 4 A Hit

Apple seems to know exactly what the consumer wants from its technology. Their successes continue to pile up, the latest being the pre-sale of its latest iPhone version. "Apple said pre-orders for its iPhone 4 rang up a new single-day advance-sales record -- despite massive ordering glitches that left many potential buyers hanging." That accounts for more than 600,000 orders in one day! How many are new customers and how many are upgrades remain to be learned, but it is a significant jump in just one day. It seems Apple can't build then fast enough to satisfy the demand.

And for Apple it is not a one time sale. Each of these consumers have access to the iTune site and will most likely order app after app to make their iPhone and other devices more appealing. It is that ongoing revenue stream that is Apple's greatest strength and will ultimately raise the value of their stock. As the line from the movie Field of Dreams correctly indicates, "If you build it, they will come."

Tivo Keeps Trying to Stay Noticed

Tivo is trying awfully hard to make their service indispensable to the consumer. Beyond an easy to use interface, internet connectivity, HD abilities, and now more social networking, comes a new application. "Television recording business TiVo Inc. set up a way for its users to show information like news, weather, photos or updates from social networks like Twitter or Facebook on TV." Called FrameChannel, the service lets viewers "put sports scores or traffic reports based on their Zip codes on the screen using various apps. Pictures from sites like Flickr or from social network pages like Facebook can also be run as slideshows." Nice features.

Unfortunately, the elephant in the room continues to be the connection to the cable company's system. The difficulty in obtaining CableCards and the installation process will cause most cable customers to simply retain their existing HD/DVR box and use other devices like their Playstation 3 to connect to the web. First things first for Tivo, strike real deals with the big cable companies so that Tivo is an automatic option for consumers. Figure out how to simplify the process of enabling an external box to connect to the cable platform. All these bells and whistles are nice, but Tivo has a bigger challenge to fix.

ESPN3 on XBox Live, But There Is A Catch

Viewers like their content across all their devices and like to push their content's availability from one device to another. TV programming should play on the web and web programming should play on the TV. So ESPN is providing that multi-screen flexibility. "ESPN3’s live video of 3,500 events, including Major League Baseball, soccer, college football and basketball games, will be available to Xbox Live Gold Members". But there is a catch. One, it is not free and two, you also must have internet service from a cable company who has bought ESPN3. "Xbox Live subscribers who pay $50 a year and whose Internet provider pays to carry ESPN3.com can now access the programming, Marc Whitten, general manager of Xbox Live, said today at the E3 video-game conference in Los Angeles." So you pay the cable company and you pay Microsoft. Do the economics add up?

Ultimately, I want to pay once for content and then I want the flexibility to show it across any of my screens. Some call it the 4A's - Anywhere, Any time, Any place, Any Device. Others describe it as the 4C's - cable, cellphone, car, and computer. But again, they only want to pay once for content. When the viewer is being asked to pay twice to access on their computer or through their X Box, they will not; rather, they will push the web signal directly to their TV and bypass the Xbox.

Certainly access of ESPN 3 through the XBox offers convenience, but the cost may stop it from being a success.

First Run Movies At Home

Going to the movies getting too expensive. Can't find a babysitter to leave the home to catch a new flick. Well first run movies may be coming to your big HDTV TV set. "Families may soon get the chance to watch in-theater movies from the comfort of their living room couch -- for between $20 and $30 a flick." If you start to do the math, home viewing could replace movie houses.

A family of four going out for a movie could cost over $40 just for tickets and another $40 for popcorn and soda. A couple with the need for a babysitter could be paying even more. The cost savings could be a real boon to film distributors because at a lower cost and easier accessibility, consumers might end up watching more movies and ultimately paying more money. Unfortunately, the loser might just be the movie house who will miss admission and refreshment revenue and ultimately need to raise prices to break even. As their costs rise, attendance will drop.

The hope remains that those that like to leave the house for the movie experience will continue to do so. Offering first run films directly to the home at a premium price will result in growth and not a redirecting of dollars from one pocket to another. "One cable source said: 'A home-theater window is a better proposition than the bricks and mortar store. Cable already has movies ahead of Netflix.' Within recent weeks, key studio executives have publicly expressed support for the new window idea."

Will this new home premium window be a good thing or will it hurt the movie theater business? The rise of premium networks, VOD, and other choices has yet to impact the movie theater experience. The rise of Imax screens and 3D keep us going to the movies. Innovation remains key and new opportunities should be viewed as a good thing.

Is Apple In Trouble?

Has Apple gotten too big for its own good? Are they no longer the scrappy little guy but the biggest bully in the room. Unfortunately, that behavior gets noticed and now the government may want to get involved. "The Federal Trade Commission is about to take the lead in the federal investigation of possible anti-competitive behavior at Apple, according to a well-placed source familiar with the matter." While I am a fan of Apple, I understand the need for an open and competitive marketplace. Control and openness are hardly ever synonymous.

"FTC Commissioner Thomas Rosch, in a presentation Wednesday at the Vienna Competition Conference, spoke about Apple, a source said. Rosch said that Apple's new advertising policies preventing competitors from doing business on Apple devices seemed problematic, and were potentially significant developments." I'm sure that Apple will argue that other devices are available and the consumer is free to choose which platform they wish to use. Consequently free trade exists in the market and Apple's proprietary ad engine is not anti-competitive. But Apple's success is its own worse enemy. They have built must have products and captured significant market share as a result. They are the game with few players able to reach their level. Even Microsoft has been unable to build an iTunes type business or iPad alternative.

Will an FTC or DOJ investigation lead to a charge. I'm confident the attorneys are already hard at work defending Apple.

Does The Consumer Know About VOD

At yesterday's VOD Summit, held in Philadelphia, a number of statistics were shared. One in particular was that 45% of set top box households use VOD. And the question was asked, is the glass half full or half empty? It sure means improvement from just a few years ago; at the same time, it means that more than half the households still don't use VOD. So what is needed?

Typical consumer behavior with their TV seems as follows: Turn on the tube and surf the channels. When nothing is found, go into the pre-recorded DVR shows and decide if something is worth watching at the moment, then head into VOD. Others though bypass VOD and go right into their DVD collection. The challenge is how to raise the awareness and added value that these homes already possess with their cable subscription but are not utilizing.

The challenge of VOD usage rests in three buckets, choice, convenience, and ease of use. For all three, education remains key to sharing the benefits of VOD. And that message must be presented consistently across all media platforms to break through the clutter. With tons of choice, sometimes too much can be too much and the consumer will pick none of the above. With choice and an overwhelming list to select from, comes the need for expertise and recommendations. In general, consumers want help in picking what to watch. The convenience comes from the technology, the speed of watching what you pick over waiting for a disk to arrive in the mail or going to the store to pick up a DVD. Convenience though could also be improved inside the viewing experience. Getting to places inside the show is difficult with a fast forward button that doesn't offer 15 minute fast forward or DVD type search functionality. With convenience must also come ease of use and navigation remains problematic with the set top box. An overhaul of the navigation menu is immediately required to bring more people into the space. The current "tree and branch" and clunky search does more to drop people out of the navigation process than get them to the shows they want to watch.

Fixing navigation, providing recommendations, and improving the trick feature process will go a long way in gaining more users to the VOD platform. Educating a consistent message on how to navigate and the benefits VOD brings to the home will entice more households to see the value of VOD with their cable subscription.