Flash vs HTML5, Will Apple Blink?

Steve Jobs recently wrote his reasons for not including Flash in the iPad. Content companies seem to think otherwise. NBC and Time Warner both say that they refuse to reformat their video for HTML5 and that Jobs should accept Flash. And so the consumer seeking this content from these providers will be unable to view their favorite NBC or Time Warner Shows on the iPad. Will Jobs acquiesce or will these and other content creators that refuse find themselves missing a huge chunk of audience.


Apple already claims 2 million iPad users since its release a couple months ago. That number is sure to grow as the next generation of iPads are released. For now, it only represents the early adopters. And perhaps the video component of iPad is not the sole reason to purchase one. Users will find its multiple uses so important, that it may become as indispensable to carry as a mobile phone.

So who will blink first, Apple or the content companies. I suspect at the end, Apple's device will be the home run and the others will eventually join up and stop fighting.

Sirius XM to Go Global?

It seems that John Malone's Liberty investment in Sirius XM brings new revenue opportunities to the business model. Liberty's recent rescue of another international satellite company, could enable Sirius to expand around the world. "...speculation has run rampant that perhaps Sirius and WorldSpace could work to bring Sirius XM's programming abroad." Expanding its reach worldwide could significantly impact usage, provided that the programming offered is relevant to the marketplace. More investment in content would be necessary to capture those consumers.

As Sirius' stock price hovers around the dollar mark, it will be interesting to note the effect this news may have on the price. Sirius needs a boost, in an ever struggling economic market. Perhaps other sources need to be considered. Can anyone say Apple iPad app?

Can Tivo Survive As A Stand Alone Box?

Tivo announced its first quarter results and the news was plainly bad. Its deal with Comcast has not blossomed. Other cable companies have yet to license their technology. The courts stayed the Dish ruling and other patent fights are years away from resolution. So what is a company with a great product suppose to do?

Well one deal announced is with best Buy, but surprise, it is not to about its DVR capabilities. "The latest adopter is Best Buy, which will add the TiVo platform to its Insignia house brand of HDTVs at an unspecified date. (The exact phrase is “development is underway.”) Unfortunately, the press release announcing the deal explicitly states that the sets will be using the 'latest TiVo non-DVR software and advanced television service.'”

Will this business model offset the core revenue losses? Will Comcast, Time Warner and others recognize the value of the Tivo software and embrace it into the box? Doubtful. Most likely, they will do an end around. Use web software on mobile and wireless devices like the iPad, laptop, and mobile phone to provide a remote scheduling process that provides all the flexibility, ergonomics, and ease of a web page and then talk to the headend which in turn will program the home's DVR box. Search, recommendations, highlights, and colorful marketing on devices we have made invaluable in the home. Then the choice simply has to be "programmed" to record at the head end and updated in the home machine. And so no need to embrace the Tivo technology at the home set top box.

Can Tivo adapt to this type of future. Can they write the software that runs the engine at the headend. That it seems could be the next home run.

Is Facebook Losing its Luster?

Yes, Facebook dominates the social network scene. Yes, every marketing plan seems to include a social media component involving Facebook. And yes, Facebook got Betty White to host SNL. But is Facebook jumping the shark? Are consumers growing tired of their information being shared too easily. Younger consumers don't seem to mind sharing; older consumers are more wary. Some love posting every thing they do, including what they ate for breakfast, others act more as voyeurs of their "friends" lives.

I believe I have grown my friends list too quickly. Some are not really my friends, more acquaintances. Do they really want to see pictures of my kids? From Zuckerberg's WSJ Op Ed piece, "The challenge is how a network like ours facilitates sharing and innovation, offers control and choice, and makes this experience easy for everyone. These are issues we think about all the time. Whenever we make a change, we try to apply the lessons we've learned along the way. The biggest message we have heard recently is that people want easier control over their information." As Facebook simplifies its privacy features, perhaps it will allow us the opportunity to segment our friends so we can determine how "friendly" we want to be with each and which posts get seen by different segments of friends. It is time for a change. Consumers should get more control back into their lives.

Are We Watching The End Of Broadcast Television?

GE is selling NBC to Comcast and now there is speculation that ABC and CBS are also for sale. Obviously everything is for sale, but the greater question may be what does a potential sale indicate. "Among bankers, CBS appears to be garnering the most attention amid signs (Sumner) Redstone these days isn't dismissing out of hand the notion of selling CBS." As cable companies begin to pay retransmission fees for carriage, the cash flow looks strong. At the same time, ratings for broadcast erode as the cable model becomes more efficient. Will we be looking back and sale that the GE sale of NBC was the beginning of the end for broadcast television?

"While audiences will still show up in droves for tentpole events like the Super Bowl or an awards show, the increased popularity of cable is eating into broadcast networks' bottom line, which is further hampered by the high costs associated with producing series, steep sports-rights fees and expenses tied to owning a news operation. Also weighing on broadcasters is their ownership of local TV stations, which have been hit hard by the ad slowdown. Experts said the networks' real money-making opportunities lie in ancillary businesses, such as international syndication, DVDs and other merchandise, and ownership of a network isn't necessary to reap those benefits." So one day soon, the Super Bowl like other shows before it will move from broadcast to cable to potentially PPV. Affiliates will turn into local cable channels and national broadcast channels will be a distant memory.

Another Reason For Cable To Worry - Google TV

Truthfully, you don't need Google to connect to web content. But as more entrants develop tools to bypass cable and bring easier controls and choice through the web to the TV set, why bother with cable.

Today's TV sets are being manufactured with web connections, so are ancillary devices like blu-rays, game consoles, Apple TV, and others. One thing that is not being built into these devices, CableCards, or any other authorization device to unscramble cable programming. As consumers grow tired of cable company's iron grip on access, they will move toward the web. Will Google TV be the answer. Doesn't seem that revolutionary based on the above clip. But the fact is that the solution is in the web and cable companies must do a better job of embracing it; else, the consumer will cut the cord.

Cable Beware, Another Reason To Cut The Cord

From Cynopsis:

"Cord cutters will delight in the new Clicker.tv site unveiled at Google's I/O conference yesterday. It's similar to the online Clicker service, which provides cool search and discovery tools such as highlighting "headlining" and "trending" TV shows, movies, web shows and news clips that are catching fire online. But this version leverages the HTML5 video format and streamlines the interface (much bigger icons) to make it perfect for browsing through a PC-connected large screen TV. Navigate using keyboard arrows or a configured remote to find just about any video online. The Clicker engine does a great job of categorizing some 650,000 (legal) episodes of 10,000 shows. It's designed with Google's Chrome web browser in mind (hence the I/O demo), but it also works with other browsers and thankfully doesn't require any troublesome plugins to work. Now what's needed are more customization features and social recommendation tools that have become a great differentiator for Boxee from your boring old cable guide. After all, when it comes to TV, too much is never enough, notes Clicker CEO Jim Lanzone. "As Americans we already watch 37 hours of TV a week. I have no idea how we're going to fit more viewing hours into each week, but we're going to be given every possible freaking opportunity to try!," he writes in a blog post unveiling Clicker.tv."

As consumers look to other sources for TV programming, Clicker seems to offer the popular shows from Fox, NBC, Comedy Central, and others. On the computer and available whenever and wherever you want. With the ability to connect PCs to TVs, these same shows can be seen on big screens or small. Why are they cutting cable's cord? Why buy the cow if the milk is free.

Forget The Triple Play, It's Now The Quad Play

What do the telcos have that the cable companies need, a cellular leg. "AT&T is completing the grand slam with a price break of up to $60 per month on a four-service bundle -- with U-verse TV, phone, Internet and wireless phone -- which the telco emphasized most cable providers can't match." Not really that revolutionary; Verizon has been offering the same packaging with Fios. And cable has shown that packaging of services that demonstrates savings to the consumer is a big winner. And as consumers drop their wired line for a purely wireless phone, the telcos have the advantage. So what is cable to do?

One solution in the works is building out wireless inside their footprint so that consumers can remain connected away from the home. As mobile devices connect through wireless hot spots, as opposed to cellular, cable could offer phones that bring all its content as well as communication to the consumer. Skype represents one such avenue. And it enables the user to offer video capability with the phone call if they choose.

So quad play, like triple play may soon be a misnomer. In the end, consumers want a wire and wireless solution for the home and on the road. Show the consumer that complete connection and own the marketplace.

Another Reason For Cable Companies To Worry

Consumers aren't happy with their cable companies. This relationship is eerily reminiscent of the 1970's when consumers hated the phone company. Eventually it led to Ma Bell's break up and a more competitive telephone landscape. Consumers seem to dislike their cable company just as much. And younger consumers are leaving cable for alternatives.

Well UFC has given another reason to look beyond cable for programming. "Ultimate Fighting Championship announced a multiyear deal with Internet set-top maker Roku to feature all major UFC events, starting with UFC 114: Rampage vs. Evans on May 29.... Roku, whose Internet set-tops start at $80 for standard-definition and $100 for HD, also provides access to streaming-video services from Netflix, MLB.tv and Amazon Video On Demand."

Through broadband connections, content can flow from other providers. And competition can hopefully bring more competitive pricing. As Roku and others acquire more content, cable companies must realize that the broadband pipe is bother their friend and their foe. Pricing, content differentiation, ergonomic controls, and consumer satisfaction will all be needed to keep the customer connected.