Panasonic CTO: We Need 3DTV To Pull Out Of Slump

First of all, CES is one of the biggest shows I've ever attended. The variety of products being shown seems endless. And 3D seems to be a major announcement for both TV manufacturers and cable programmers. From Panasonic to Sony and Sharp, ESPN, Discovery, and others, 3D is the future of consumer in home entertainment. I disagree.

While it may be great for theatrical events like Avatar, it is less necessary for other programming. DO I really need to see The Biggest Loser in 3D! It's biggest stumbling block remains the glasses required to watch the shows. Cool at first, the glasses are a major drawback. My own kids take them off after a short while because they tend to be uncomfortable. The result, the unaided eye sees a blurry picture.

One day 3D will matter, but for the next 5 or more years, I see it limited to movie houses. What is more pressing in the home is a high speed connection to the TV enabling IP provided programming to reach the screen. As cable programming becomes more expensive, consumers will move their viewing habits to the internet for an a la carte programming experience.

And before 3D hits the home, the other service consumers will demand first is TV Everywhere. Microsoft has enabled it through their software in conjunction with AT&T. Sling is out there as well with the ability to move programming to other devices, too. TV Everywhere seems more appealing in the near future than 3D for the consumer.

Lastly, what was most interesting, perhaps even disturbing, was that the Consumer Electronic Show lacked a cable showcase. NBC was there, but no other programming. No Operators at all. No Comcast, No Time Warner, no one. The cable industry has tried to operate separate from the manufacturers and it seems that it will eventually be at cable's loss. Why aren't manufacturers touting cablecard devices integrated into their TV sets? Who should we blame? It seems cable. TV manufacturers are going around the cable operators with internet connections, not cable, and the operator will end up be on the losing end.

Dolan To Programmers: Don't Price Yourself Out of Business

Jim Dolan has some advice for cable programmers (Scripps are you listening). He says that "huge affiliate fee increases are running the risk of pricing themselves out of business..." And Dolan my be partly right; greed can become a real killer to a marketplace. As consumers get fed up, they seek alternatives.

An example is the DVR. As programmers put too many ads in their programming schedule, consumers discovered that by time shifting programming, they could also fast forward through the ads. Raising programming fees will lead to new solutions. And one might be bypassing the cable operator. If Cablevision takes programming off their line-up, the consumer may find they can access the same programming directly through the web. No programming fees, but no more negotiation hassles either. The programmer will deal directly with the consumer.

TVs are becoming IP connected, consumers are watching more and more from web sites like Hulu, TV.com and others. And consumers are dropping cable subscriptions for other programming connections. So yes Jim, programming could be hurt by drop of their programming on your cable line-up, but cable operators could be hurt AS WELL. As your partnerships between programming and distribution disintegrates, consumers will move to the safer ground of web based programming. And you both lose subscription revenue.

Redbox Achieves A Rental Record

Netflix scared Blockbuster and now it may be Redbox's turn to scare Netflix and On Demand. " The DVD rental provider, Redbox, said it broke its one-day rental record New Year's Eve with more than 2 million DVDs checked out by U.S. customers." For a dollar a day, consumers can watch their favorite movies. Compared to VOD at $4 - $5 dollars a day, Redbox is a financial keeper. It seems that consumers will put up with traveling to the local store to access a vending machine and they will put up with rentals and penalty costs for not returning dvds in time, rather than pay more for the convenience of a watching on demand. In a down economy, do Netflix, Blockbuster, and on demand have a new problem on their hands? Consumers change viewing habits for any number of reasons and price is definitely an important factor. As Redbox becomes more successful, watch as on demand competes with more same day and date releases as DVDs, longer viewing windows, and perhaps even LOWER prices.

Fox Not The Only Story, Cablevision Pulls Off Scripps

So much press on the Time Warner Cable and Fox negotiations, that poor Scripps got little attention. And while a last minute deal closed to enable Fox to remain on air in Time Warner markets, HGTV and Food weren't as lucky. Cablevision pulled off the air all of Scripps' channels and viewers have been without going into a fourth day. For my family, fans of Food Challenge, House Hunters, and other shows, serious trouble. Luckily, we don't live in a Cablevision market.

"Since the signals were pulled, Cablevision has been continuously running a "customer" alert on the channel positions, featuring Scripps and the two networks' logos." At the same time, Time Warner is also out of contract with Scripps but has kept the networks on air during this same period. I am confident that in each case, Scripps will formalize a contract with each.

In the meantime, what does a customer do. For us, we would have been actively using our DVR to at least watch our shows. VOD would have dropped the network fare as well and left us out cold. Customers could contemplate switching providers; but note, eventually, networks will have to also renegotiate with telcos and dish and the same hardball tactics will be used again. The day of free over the air TV is gone. Networks want their subscription revenue and customers will either have to work through third party distributors until the day we simply buy our channels directly, a la carte, one at a time, over the web, for viewing in our home and on our approved devices.

Will Fox and Time Warner Cable Make A Deal

New Year's Eve is here and tomorrow a new years starts. But for customers of Time Warner Cable, tomorrow may mean no Fox broadcast or its sister cable channels like FX and others. That is because their carriage agreement expires today and has yet to be renewed. And so customers of Time Warner Cable have a few choices: 1. Wait and eventually they will settle, but till then miss Fox programming, most likely this weekend's fare of Bowl and NFL Games. 2. Switch providers to Telco or Dish, still unlikely to get switched by tomorrow so still out of luck short term. 3. Buy a digital antennae and at least get access to Fox Broadcast. 4. Go to a friend's house or local bar with a different provider to at least watch the games. 5. Complain to the FCC and your Senators and Representatives.

Who is right in this squabble between two mega companies? Neither. Both live in a world with obscene profits and ultimately the customer is in the middle. Could Time Warner swallow the extra buck to carry Fox? Of course. Does Fox need the whole dollar as an increase; probably not. Is there a middle ground; yes, the question in this and every negotiation is who blinks first. And because neither side especially likes the other, that negative relationship plays an unfortunate part too.

And so it will play out all day and night, taking people away from their families and friends most likely till 12:01 AM. Happy New Year!

Will Canoe Ever Work?

Will interactive advertising through the cable box become reality; at some point, yes. But will Canoe be the one to pull it off; well, let's just say that they are yet to meet a deadline. "Canoe earlier this summer abandoned plans for a targeted-ad service, which was to let advertisers run different spots in a national campaign by overlaying them on existing local cable ad zones." That essentially was meant to enable more ads to traffic inside a :30 second spot. Targeted to the household, each unique spot could be run inside one ad break, essentially quadrupling the number of ad positions to sell. Advertisers would pay the premium to get ads targeting their best customers, by household. Canoe failed to bring that opportunity to market.

"Instead, CEO David Verklin said in June, Canoe would turn its focus to launching the interactive RFI product in the fourth quarter." That means the opportunity for a consumer watching the ad to push a button on the remote and get more info on the ad; that could be a free sample, promotional information, a specific video, and perhaps even the chance to order a product. But now even that is delayed till Spring 2010. And while Canoe failed to hit the deadline, Cablevision has proven that an interactive model can be deployed. "Cablevision, independent of Canoe, this fall launched Optimum Select, an interactive advertising service that runs on the MSO's proprietary ITV platform." Can Canoe catch up or will they in fact latch on to Cablevision. For Canoe, the future remains cloudy.

TVs In Cars Forecast To Double By 2015

For us with kids, a TV screen in the car, especially for long trips, has been an easy way to entertain while driving. Thanks to a large selection of DVDs, some of which we never get tired of watching over and over, the TV has great value. But what if there is something live on TV or simply a show that is always enjoyed, even with commercials, how can linear TV be enjoyed in the car? Not Direct TV or Dish, but perhaps cellular phones can help.

"For broadcasters, the major mobile TV play is being led by the Open Mobile Video Coalition (OMVC), which represents more than 800 local TV stations that plan to use the ATSC's mobile digital TV broadcasting standard. The OMVC has lined up device manufacturers that plan to sell products that work with the DTV specification, and the group plans to launch a customer trial in Washington, D.C., in 2010." But how about connecting a FLO TV enabled device to a jack and connect to the TV screen. "FLO TV is currently available through AT&T Wireless and Verizon Wireless and via a Qualcomm-developed handheld device with a lineup of more than a dozen live channels, including CNBC, ABC Mobile, Disney Channel, Fox Mobile, MTV, NBC2go and Nickelodeon." Or even better, why not work with a satellite delivered device that is already in the car.

It is the time for Sirius to enter the video world for mobile entertainment. And to ease that transition, it is time for Direct TV to buy Sirius. The combination of the two entities could be the best synergy to enable mobile TV to work. Sirius will not survive on radio alone and Direct TV needs additional advantages to overtake cable. This could prove a win win to both companies and to the public as well.

Fox and Time Warner Cable Battle - Customers Will Ultimately Lose

Ahhhh, remember the simple life when all there was to watch was free, over the air, broadcast TV. Just adjust your antenna and watch. Then cable came along and offered a clearer transmission and ultimately more channels. Then technology brought video recording and ultimately on demand. And with each change, the price for watching TV rose and rose and rose.

Welcome to today where broadcasters own cable channels and leverage is used to assure that dollars get spent on carriage of both broadcast, general cable nets as well as niche ones. The allure of subscription fees to augment the revenue from advertising is too compelling to ignore. So broadcasters switched from "must carry" to "Retrans" to force contract negotiation. Fees go up and cable customers pay more.

So today you have Time Warner Cable fighting Fox and Mediacom fighting Sinclair. Timing for contracts always seem to expire New Years Eve causing great despair as the clock is used to force settlement before time runs out and a holiday is upon us. Just in time for folks to be huddled around the TV, set to watch a movie or a college bowl game. Ultimately, more money will be spent and those costs will be passed on in cable bills.

And as broadcast signals have become digital, antenna reception more problematic, customers have been forced to carry cable to watch their shows. Will customers switch to avoid losing their Fox or will they wait and watch the drama unfold. A deal will be reached, maybe by December 31, maybe not. But shortly thereafter and it will then be another cable network and another cable operator's turn to go through this same dance. It's happened before and it will happen again. And once the customer gets tired of this ongoing fight, they will switch to internet viewing and simply find an alternative choice to satisfy their TV addiction.

Entertainment Trends From Nielsenwire

According to Nielsen, here are the top trends in entertainment in 2010:

1. Digital media shows solid growth.
2. New functionality and price drops increase gaming usage.
3. Rehashed, replayed games risk saturating the gaming market.
4. Sports globalization offers a new range of opportunities.
5. Piracy is a major concern for artists, authors and publishers.


While I agree that digital media will grow, that trend has been present for years. Web surfing, e-mail, e-books, iPhones, and more have dominated the landscape. There use will continue to dominate other media.

And gaming is becoming more universal, not just on in home devices like Xbox and Wii, but on smart phones and other mobile devices too. Gaming though is an addiction, a drug, that takes time away from more useful ventures. It may be fun, it may be challenging, and it certainly is engrossing; but, gaming does not lead to productivity. It is a time suck that needs to be better managed or our youth, and perhaps us, too, will find her minds numbed from staring at gems popping, tiles moving, virtual soldiers shooting, and farmers plowing non-existent farms. It is one trend that is growing and becoming potentially more problematic, too. Unfortunately, I also encourage it in my home. The only solution, not to do away with it entirely, but to limit time spent so that it does not become a downward spiralling addiction.

And with competition for gaming, Game Stop has emerged as a key player for finding and purchasing games. Both new and used games are available for purchase. Replayed games are good for the pocketbook, tougher on new sales. Would you rather pay $19 for Madden '08 or $50 for Madden '10? Seems obvious which one is most appealing.

Sports globalization. In 2010 we get both the Winter Olympics and World Cup, 2 global competitions. Certainly of more world interest than the USA annual events known as the Bowl Games, Super Bowl, NCAA Basketball, World Series, etc. Two global competitions in one year, but a trend past 2010, I'm not so sure.

And lastly, Piracy. A trend that has been around since music went digital years ago. As long as content costs money, folks will look for ways to get that same content for less money or nothing at all. Before digital, people went into movie theaters and illegally filmed new releases just to resell them for less. Digital copies simply makes the process less cumbersome. A trend, no; a reality, yes.