Is Content Still King In A Bad Economy?

In this week's Time Magazine, they wonder if content has dropped from its lofty perch and is no longer king of the hill. Relegated to "pauper" status, content is now available for free on the web, without subscription, admission, or incremental cost to the consumer. Who needs to buy Time Magazine when it's articles, like this one, can be read for free on the web; the same holds true for newspapers. No need to buy music CDs or DVDs, Apple sells songs for under a $1 and some sites are capable of sharing these same songs as well as movies and other videos for free. Some folks are even stopping their cable subscription to get their content streamed through Hulu and other sites instead. They are indeed paying less.

While the internet has brought great convenience and speed to the consumer; it also let the proverbial cat out of the bag when it enabled free content to rule. It will become much harder to retrain the public to pay for content looking ahead. Need an example, look at Sirius. On the verge of bankruptcy, Sirius has had trouble growing fast enough to make a profit. Who wants to pay for music content when free radio, ipods, and even HD and wireless choices are more preferable. Sirius' exclusive content was not enough to build a sustainable business.

Perhaps the economy is also partly to blame for this downgrade in content value. As consumers find ways to cut back, non-essential purchases stop. People make due with less and rely on what is most valuable to them. Content may still be king, it just may not be worth as much. "No one knows to what extent content will be "re-valued" as the economy improves. The newspaper industry may not be able to get any of its value back. Magazines may face the same problem. To the surprise of many, some of the more valuable content, like expensive feature films, may only make a great deal of money in theaters. The yield from VOD on the internet sales and syndication on the Apple (AAPL) iPod may turn out to be extremely modest. The largest media companies are making the case that the only reason their asset values have dropped is the economy. That case may not hold up."

Local TV Stations Face a Fuzzy Future

This article in the WSJ couldn't be more timely. Local television stations face the same threat from cable and now the internet. It has been getting a large share of its ad dollars from the auto and bank industries and is suffering as each of their media budgets have shrunk considerable. Their local news is threatened by web coverage as well as cable news networks, both national and regional, has led to less eyeballs. We now have a DTV conversion that will potentially cause some households to stop receiving TV signals and simply make the local broadcaster just another cable type network.

"Now, with their viewership in decline and ad revenue on a downward spiral, many local TV stations face the prospect of being cut out of the picture. Executives at some major networks are beginning to talk about an option that once would have been unthinkable: eventually taking shows straight to cable, where networks can take in a steady stream of subscriber fees even in an advertising slump." How does the local broadcaster survive? Cut costs, exclusive content, build stronger local brand value?

It is not all doom and gloom. "Local TV stations won't vanish overnight. Networks' parent companies still own some of the largest stations, giving them a possible incentive to preserve that slice of the business. And while their profits are down, the vast majority of stations are making money: Local, regional and national businesses, like car dealers and retailers, spent more than $20 billion on local TV-station ads in 2008, according to some estimates." Still it is about watching the trend and the arrow is pointing lower. Local broadcasters must find away to adapt and re-grow its stature in the community and its brand preference. For those owned and operated stations, a strong parent will be helpful; for others, the challenges will be higher.

Can the Long Tail Survive Or Will It Just Fall Off?

Web content faces an interesting dilemma...itself. As consumers seek more choice among more distribution paths, new viewing options are cutting into and perhaps killing traditional models. Where syndication once enabled broadcasters to recoup costs and achieve profitability, the traditional placeholders, local TV broadcasters, have been replaced, first by national cable networks like USA and TBS, and now by online sites like Hulu and Joost. And in these latest models, the demand is growing, but the revenue models don't offset the losses from traditional models. And so if revenues can't grow, costs must be cut. The big companies can ride out this storm, the small guys can not.

As more content flows from the broadcasters and deep-pocketed producers, armed with more money to promote their awareness and value, what is left for the niche on-line content creators to do. Add to this scenario that advertising dollars have dried up, can this fragmentation of content survive for long?

The answer is no. Some of these long tail content creators will be bought by the big fish. Others will lose their VC dollars and withdraw. Fragmentation only inevitably leads back to segmentation. Let history be your guide to predicting this future. In too many instances, the many turn into the few. Just look at the cable operator as one example. Less than 15 years ago, there were many cable operators across the country; but size does matter and cost efficiencies mean that you must get larger and let economies of scale improve your cost efficiencies. Today, the cable industry is perceived more as an oligopoly, a few powerful cable operators cover the entire country. The same holds true with programming. Where there were once many independent networks existed, acquisition and merger have led to most cable networks represented by few companies.

And so the long tail cannot remain viable; it must either combine with other content providers to gain bigger share or it will simply become too costly to maintain. VC money can only go so far and at some point they will demand a return on their investment. How soon will this happen? It seems that the pace has quicken and it wouldn't surprise me to see major changes within 5 years. Regardless of the time frame, it is going to happen.

Kindle 2.0 Has Arrived

Amazon announced today that the next generation of Kindle is ready for release and will be available by the end of the month. And like the Model T before it, it still comes in only one color, white. Still, it seems to have improved in speed, functionality, design, and storage. And while it its price point hasn't changed, it may still be priced high for assuring that supply meets demand. At about $360 for the device, and a poor economy, does the consumer see it as another hi tech toy or as something more. Is there enough content to satisfy this niche of a reader? Unlike the iPod, I don't see anyone using one on the train when I commute into the city. Will this next generation model be the replacement to print or is there something else on the horizon?

And why isn't Apple pursuing this segment. They have the infrastructure in place and it could complement the iPod and iPhone line of products. Yet Apple is absent in this space while Amazon is making inroads in Apple's video and audio online business. How fast will this new Kindle sell out and will the consumer embrace it? Will know soon enough, the Kindle is in pre-order now.

Power to the :30

Maybe the 30 second commercial isn't so bad after all. As advertising budgets shrink and scale and measurement matter, media buyers have grown disenchanted with the long tail on the web and banner ads that don't get clicked. Interactivity remains the buzzword, and the :30 may just have the power to not only inform the viewer about its brand but to allow them to engage and interact with the product as well. "For example, at Cablevision we’ve developed the Power: 30 (SM), which uses the 30-second unit as the entry point into video on demand (VOD) and interactive television (ITV) channels dedicated to a specific advertiser, and provides marketers and agencies with addressable advertising and telescoping functionality." It certainly appears that this interactivity provides added value. It allows the consumer to take their interest to the next level and explore the ad message in more detail.

As a viewer, the biggest challenge remains switching from the linear content, where you have invested your time to watch a show, to view this advertising content. Whether it would be possible to "bookmark" this message for later interaction could provide even more value as well as consumer friendliness. I may be willing to watch a Disney Park message, but let me wait till after Lost ends. The web enables multiple screens to open and allows me to review my history and my favorites; the TV screen is less flexible at the moment.

Interactivity with ads through the television screen seems the next frontier to conquer. How quickly the consumer embraces this new accessibility and interaction determines its viability. The added value that interactivity brings to a :30 spot should intrigue advertisers trying to measure interest and action. TV is no longer a passive screen and cable has the ability to enable and foster this interactivity. The timing might just be right.

Wall Street Journal To New York Times, Subscription Model Does Work

According to Rupert Murdoch, there is still a subscription business, and the New York Times should follow the Wall Street Journal's lead and put its content inside a gated wall. If the old adage is true, you get what you pay for, free content only gets you so much; the good stuff has more value and should be purchased. And while the NYT generated more advertising revenue than WSJ, The added subscription stream that WSJ gets boosted their total revenue above the NYT. As the NYT is facing financial problems, following the WSJ playbook may just be a viable solution for them.

"We've already noted that the Wall Street Journal has half as much traffic as the New York Times, despite having an $80/year pay wall. Why? Because the WSJ implemented its subscription fee brilliantly: WSJ.com offers some content for free, and the whole site is still fully searchable by Google. Readers can access pieces of Wall Street Journal content for free all across the Internet. They can also access some free stuff on WSJ.com. If they want to read the Wall Street Journal, though, they need to pony up, and about 1 million of them do."

Those subscribers of the Wall Street Journal recognize the unique content that comes from its pages. And today, a million online customers seem to agree. The print edition will someday go away; but these customers are already being introduced to subscribing to a digital version; brand preference and value is being maintained as distribution models change. Perhaps the NYT should heed Murdoch's message.

House Passes Bill Pushing DTV Transition Date To June 12

Forget February 17. It never happened. The Digital Apocalypse was averted, for now; actually, for 4 months. Congress finally agreed to extending the date and now their is time to further educate, send out more DTV coupons, answer the questions, and reduce the confusion.

"Some stations have already indicated they are sticking with the Feb. 17 date. The FCC said it had heard from 276 stations to that effect, in addition to 143 stations that had already pulled the plug, and another 60 that said they planned to do so before Feb. 17. The FCC had pointed out that some of those 276 may change their minds once the date changed."

It's kinda like the band aid analogy - should we pull it off quickly and take the pain at once, or should we pull it off slowly to minimize the hurt and reduce the pain. As the pain may have proved too much for a portion of the country, this extension should help to ease the pain.

Study: Ads make watching TV more pleasurable

It's not that viewers like commercials, we just have a better experience when they are included in our shows. This unbiased study, according to the article, does not jibe with current habits. Was it taken during the Super Bowl? For me, that is the one time a year where the commercials are their most entertaining and buzzworthy. All other times, viewers are avoiding commercials like the plague, using their DVRs more than ever as well as VOD. In fact, I have found that the same shows on VOD have far less commercial intrusions than on live TV. This study needs more analysis to determine its validity.

"So if the findings are accurate, why don't people recognize that ads make TV more fun? The study authors have a few ideas, but no firm answers. One is that people don't study themselves -- you don't watch one show with ads, then the same show without ads, and compare the experience. Another aspect is that the ads act a point of contrast -- compared to the commercials, the programs showed study participants can seem more entertaining. And finally, the effect isn't universal -- sometimes ads do not make TV more enjoyable (for instance, if the tone of the ad completely clashes with the tone of the show), and those instances can skew viewers' impressions of ads in general."

The Super Bowl demonstrates that creativity can make ads enjoyable. Too much repetition can kill them. And too many ads between shows can break down the whole ad model.

Charter Cable Close to Bankruptcy

Cable operator, Charter Communications is inching closer to bankruptcy. The fourth largest cable company missed their debt payment and the buzz is that a bankruptcy filing is imminent. The next question is even more uncertain, is this a reorganization under Chapter 11 or a liquidation under Chapter 7. What would the other cable companies prefer to occur; that is, which is easier for them to pick up their pieces. Clearly Time Warner and Comcast are most likely to go after their systems, with Cablevision possibly looking at their Connecticut property.

The cable industry has grown up very quickly, from many operators covering the US to just a handful managing larger and larger regions. And where cable was once the only real game to many networks and clearer signals, the rise of satellite and telco into the competitive fray, and the push from IP programming through broadband bringing more competition, cable is at a new crossroads. With one less big player in the hunt, the need for more cost efficiencies by cable operators will be even more important. Charter may soon be gone, but what hurt them could be hurting the other cable players, too.