Early 2012 Media Predictions

With the holidays fast approaching and a desire to beat others to the punch, I thought I would put together some media predictions for 2012. Some may be too obvious, others are a little more out there, but only to help my win-loss percentage! Agree or disagree, it's better to have tried to predict and fail, then never to have tried at all. So here goes.

1. Time Warner Cable drops MSG from its line-up on January 1. No contract renewal will come quickly although eventually one should happen. Should TWC and MSG agree to keep the signal on while negotiations continue into 2012, then it foretells my second prediction.

2. Cablevision is officially put on the sale block. The likely bidder is Time Warner Cable, but don't underestimate Comcast. And what about Verizon? Would the DOJ and FCC even let them bid. Let me also put under this prediction that if not Cablevision, another cable operator will certainly be acquired. Could it be as large as Cox Cable? Would Charter put itself for sale after picking up Tom Rutledge? But there are also smaller operators that might just be ready to give up the fight. Someone is going down.

3. Every prediction seems to include Apple and mine is a no brainer. There will be an iPhone 5 and iPad 3 in 2012. But I don't believe we will see an HDTV from Apple; rather, I am banking on bigger improvements to their Apple TV product. Let this little box do all the dirty work for any HDTV.

4. RIM/Blackberry gets sold. They have lost the mobile battle and need a new owner and leadership to rebrand. With no major enhancements to their product line planned for next year, it's like the white flag is already being waved. So who buys them? Google bought Motorola, so maybe Amazon needs to pick up RIM.

5. Hearing that the Super Bowl will be streamed for free next year, will cause the other major sports groups to do the same. The NBA, NHL, and World Series should all see their final games live streamed in 2012.

Okay, now a couple of more outlandish predictions. Anything is possible and here's a couple to make you think.

* A cable operator buys a wireless provider. As a wired distributor of content, the next space logically seems wireless. WIFI coverage may not be enough and perhaps there is new business opportunities in buying someone like T-Mobile or perhaps even Sprint. Would Comcast or TWC seem the likely party, absolutely. They could easily move their marketing from a triple play to quad play,offering cable, hardwire phone, broadband, and a wireless phone contract.

* There are too many discount web businesses, with Living Social and Groupon leading the list. Can they all survive or will one quickly exit? I've lost interest in checking everyday for deals.

* Another cable network loses its independence and merges with a bigger group. Who will it be/ I don't want to say, but consolidation continues to push forward and content distribution will only grow as big fish eat up the little fish.

* Barnes & Noble continues to diversify and improve its merchandising strategy in-store and sees a significant boost in retail business along with its growth with the Nook as well.

* Lightsquared figures out how to exist without hurting existing GPS signals. It will help to push additional competition in the broadband space.

So there they are. I hope you enjoyed reading my ramblings this year. If you like reading what I write, please share the link with your friends. To all, a safe and happy holiday. No plans to blog again till after the New Year. Happy and Healthy!!

Sports Networks Will Never Allow Cable Tiers

Let's just put it on the table, no major sports network will allow itself to be repositioned onto a cable sports tier. Not now, never. The latest contract negotiation involving a sports network is brewing between MSG, home of MSG networks and Fuse, and Time Warner Cable.

Come the end of this year, the contract is up and plans are underfoot to drop it from basic. Already TWC has dropped its sister network, Fuse, as a sign of things that could come if an agreement is not reached. It seems they are miles apart, MSG wants a 53% increase, TWC is willing to go up to a 6.5% increase. Of course at the end, an agreement will be reached and any increase will be added to their customers' cable bill. Don't even think that TWC or any cable operator will simply absorb that kind of a fee increase; ultimately, the consumer will pay more in their monthly bill.

TWC CEO Glenn Britt has an idea, "Shifting sports channels to a separate tier, as Mr. Britt said, would allow cable operators to shift the cost for sports channels to those sports fans who want the programs—and cut the cable bills for nonsports fans." Not a new idea and certainly not one that a sports programming network would even consider. The highest license fees for networks are with the sports networks. That includes ESPN, MSG, and others. Their monthly fees are based on full distribution across the lowest level of service reaching every household TV. Should penetration fall, those fees typically increase proportionately higher than the lost percentage. So placing sports channels on a tier that reaches half the total audience could result in fees more than double the amount than full distribution. A $5 monthly license fee could be $15 on a tier. Add together all the sports networks being placed on a sports tier and the cost to the consumer now becomes a luxury expense. The price elasticity model won't simply bend, it will break.

But it's not just with ESPN or MSG. Comcast Cable is rebranding its sports network Versus into NBC Sports Network. There is no way that they will want their channel on a tier either . And what about TNT, an entertainment network that also plays NBA games. They too charge higher fees than other networks to cover their sports costs. You also have professional sports with their own sports network, NFL and MLB. And Tennis Channel just won a suit to be repositioned on basic on Comcast systems. The thought of repositioning all sports networks from basic carriage to a separately priced tier may sound like a legitimate idea, but the cost from the loss of subscribers will price this package of sports networks to a level that most consumers won't purchase.

In fact, it may be more likely to push them to the web. Consumers will buy a la carte their NFL or MLB game and stream it through an app or their Xbox. They may watch less, but they will also pay for only what they really want to watch. And encouraging more cord cutting and driving subscribers further away from cable is a bad business decision for cable operators.

Is Gov't Blocking The AT&T - T-Mobile Deal A Good Thing

When I re-tweeted this link to the SAI article, I received a number of comments that agreed with the DOJ decision to block this purchase. Good news for the consumer, more choice were cited. But is that really true? T-Mobile is the fourth and smallest of the major players; Verizon and AT&T already own at least two-thirds of the market. With Sprint in third place and with half the customers of AT&T. So did the government do us any favors blocking this merger?

Without T-Mobile, AT&T remains number two behind Verizon. T-Mobile, struggling already, has two alternatives, find another buyer or drop out. They may have gotten monies from AT&T from reneging on the deal, but they have a long way to go to build out and bulk up. They need help. Should that buyer be the number three carrier, Sprint, would the DOJ nix that deal as well? The argument of loss of major competitors still holds true, it just brings Sprint up closer to AT&T although it still would keep them third place. If competition is the concern, then the argument to nix this deal as well still holds.

And what if T-Mobile decides it can't remain in this mobile world without a partner? What if they simply drop out and break up to smaller competitors? Competition is still reduced and all the DOJ did was hasten the death of T-Mobile. So despite the comments of the government actually looking out for the consumer, the likelihood remains that we still lose T-Mobile. The only difference, AT&T doesn't capitalize on the assets of a purchase.

The author of this article makes another good point. "Of course, this is (basically) the same government that still grants monopoly licenses to cable and phone operators in most regions, thus giving massive companies MONOPOLY control over those markets. And given how much most people hate their cable and telephone companies, if the government wanted to protect us from any monopolistic communications-company abuses, they could have started there."

Communication exists both in the carrier space and broadband world. With wireless hotspots growing around the country, competition for spectrum still exists. Technological changes continue to find new competitors to the space. Let's not forget that Lightsquared is still out there seeking approval to compete as well.

So yes, I agree that with the author that the government's decision to block this merger was wrong; inconsistent given the monopolies that it has already allowed to flourish, and not likely to change the competitive landscape because it kept a fourth competitor from leaving us sooner rather than later. In the next couple of years, we will likely still see the big four become the big three carriers. DOJ simply slowed down the process of change.

Ex-Cablevision COO New Charter Cable CEO

It must have taken a lot to cause Tom Rutledge to finally leave the roost at Cablevision and to quickly turn up at Charter Cable. And one has to wonder when his right hand man, John Bickham, will once again turn up at his side. As they say, third time is the charm, right.

But what caused Rutledge to so quickly depart from Cablevision after almost a decade of service? So far I have heard a few possibilities. One is that as a family business owned by the Dolans, the COO position was the highest role he could attain on the ladder. He simply isn't "family", unless he married into it. And with the programming networks, AMC and MSG, sold off, he had less to control. Perhaps Charter's offer of a CEO role and more "ownership" was compelling.

Another possibility brewing was that there was a big fight internally and a riff that made dealing with the Dolan's more difficult. Another newspaper has speculated that Rutledge was fighting with Jim Dolan's wife, Kristen, a marketing executive on the senior team. If true, I can only say that family and business never mixes well. But I personally find it unlikely that this is the cause of his departure. They have worked together from the beginning and it is hard to believe that any disagreement would have caused Rutledge to walk away. It just doesn't seem like his personality.

And the third possibility is that Cablevision has quietly been exploring a sale to another cable operator and Rutledge's days would be numbered if he stayed. That seems especially true if the new owner would be Time Warner Cable, the company he was at before joining Cablevision. That John Bickham also left a month earlier seems to put more credibility into this third scenario. Should Bickham actually join Rutledge at Charter Cable, I think that is more proof that this possibility has validity.

The truth will continue to emerge in the coming days and weeks. Rutledge has been described as a strong leader and he certainly led Cablevision to great success under his tenure. His hiring at Charter spells great potential for them to finally emerge as a cable leader. Despite being larger than Cablevision in number of subscribers, Charter lacks a clear center, both geographically and managerially. A Rutledge led team is good news for Charter's future.

If You Understand The Digital Distribution Platform, Can You Build Better Content?

Certainly the future of print lies in digital distribution. The rise in penetration of tablets and e-readers with digital content is that proverbial chicken and egg scenario where one continues to drive the other, perpetually linked. And this latest piece of news demonstrates the commitment that how well this digital content gets purposed in a digital form is just as crucial.

"Rodale is expected to announce that it has hired Anthony Astarita as senior vice president and general manager for digital and brand development. Before joining Rodale, Mr. Astarita served as Barnes & Noble’s vice president and general manager for e-commerce and digital products." It indicates to me that Rodale understands that delivering content to a digital platform is not enough. Maximizing the value of the new space requires understanding its strengths and weaknesses more completely. Bringing someone from the platform side can help Rodale reshape and deliver the content in a way that enhances the value of the content and fulfills the expectations of the viewing receiving it in this different form.

And I don't see this hiring as a means for Rodale to get into the hardware space. It is not their business nor should it be. Theirs is to drive content across multiple platforms and hopefully to be agnostic about which one the consumer might ultimately choose to view its content on. With Apple, Amazon, and Barnes & Noble vigorously competing along with other CE manufacturers, it is not in Rodale or other publishers' best interest to join this side of the fight.

The Nook and other tablets are not simple replacements for a magazine or newspaper. These devices bring more capabilities and more opportunities and this hiring should help Rodale and others to make its content more compelling, more interesting, and more necessary. Knowing the hardware side means faster loading, streaming, viewing options, interactivity, and other technological feats to improve the experience. And that can drive more subscriptions and more ad revenue.

Cablevision For Sale

Cablevision, the fifth largest cable operator in the US, is a very successful company. From its humble roots, it has grown and prospered with innovative marketing and an unabashed style of management. They coined the triple play campaign of cable, voice and data at $99 and heard initial jeers from other cable companies. But the campaign was wildly successful and soon these same naysayers were following Cablevision's marketing strategy. Even with Verizon FIOS in their neighborhood, they never wavered in their competitive fight.

At one time, they were operator and programmer with ownership of networks like AMC and MSG. But now each have been spun off into standalone, publicly traded companies. And Cablevision sits as simply a cable operator. So the loss of two executives, John Bickham, and Tom Rutledge, raises speculation that Cablevision may finally be for sale...for real this time. With Jim Dolan managing his primary interests of music and sports under the MSG Network, it may just be easier to sell the operation side.

And who might be interested? Time Warner Cable has longed for this operation since it has owned New York City. Other investors may simply be waiting to come in and snatch what has long been considered prime property. Is Cablevision for sale finally. The answer may shortly come out.

Content is King Especially For Sports Programming

Attention NFL Football fans, their TV deal has been renewed and pro football will remain on "free" television. "The broadcast networks will pay a total of nearly $28 billion in fees over nine years under the new contracts, which take effect after the NFL's 2013 season." Oh did I say free, I doubt it because ultimately those fees will be paid by a rise in cable subscription pricing. Broadcast networks will seek higher retransmission deals for carriage and those fees will be paid by increases in our basic cable bills. Advertising revenue will also rise as networks will demand higher fees for each :30 spot. And companies that pay higher fees will eventually price higher their goods and services to the consumer. It is the trickle down theory hard at work.

Occasionally operators push back on cable license fees but ultimately find agreement at some higher amount. Today that fight is occurring between Time Warner Cable and MSG Networks; their deal expires at the end of the year unless a renewal deal is reached. The likely scenario will be that no deal gets done at midnight of December 31 and the network is dropped. Other networks, print, and radio will blare messages from each side blaming the other for loss of programming. Fans of the network holler and ultimately some weeks or maybe months later, a deal is finally reached and the network is back on the air. It is then quickly forgotten until the next cable bill increase arrives in the mail.

Ultimately content is king and sports especially remains high on the list. How price elastic is this model remains to be seen. It may simply cause additional cord cutting by those no longer able or willing to pay for what they don't want to watch.

If You Have An Xbox, Will You Need An Apple TV

Connected TVs are emerging to be more valuable than even 3D. Manufacturers are building sets with wireless and wired connectivity to the web while at the same time streaming media is finding spots on guides of various set top boxes. All this while cable operators push to keep their cable subscriptions growing.

For younger audiences, more entertainment is happening through their XBox, Playstation and Wii gaming boxes. And streaming media companies like Hulu and Netflix are attaching their subscription services to these boxes. "According to a new survey and projections by Strategy Analytics, the connected TV player will sell 4 million units this year to capture 32% of the streaming media player market. The media player market includes competitors such as the Roku and Boxee boxes."

And while the first generation of Apple TV boxes haven't caught on yet, hope is on the horizon with a next generation Apple box incorporating its cloud service and app connectivity with iPads and iPhones. "But more importantly, the AirPlay feature in iOS allows the mobile devices to move media to the TV from the devices and allows the iPhone or iPad to serve as complementary screens." And of course the rumor that Apple will manufacture its own television set. I also hope that Apple improves the remote control experience and perhaps includes Siri in the set top and TV set.

The XBox game controller is also a more adept device in enabling search choosing what to watch. And consumers that own a gaming device may not see the need to buy another set top box controller. Still the Apple appeal should never be minimized. The TV set in the home is becoming more a centerpiece for viewing and interacting with content.

Competition for alternative ways to connect to the web is growing rapidly; at the same time, cable operators are doing nothing to make their cable boxes more user friendly. As more meaningful content moves over to web devices, the threat of cord cutting becomes much more pronounced.

Is You Tube Redesign Favoring Professional Over Amateur?

Once again, despite or desire for new things, we dislike change that affects what we are comfortable with. Change with the look of Twitter, change when our cable networks change their channel numbers, and now change with the You Tube redesign are all examples that get people frustrated. But change is meant to drive innovation and hopefully, once people get used to it, proves better, easier, faster, smarter than the previous version.

With the redesign of YouTube, the other question is being asked, is it meant to favor professional content over uploaded amateur content? Is it a move that raises barriers to viewership by guiding viewers to content that brings more revenue to YouTube? "In place of that free-for-all will be a new YouTube, more commercial, more predictable and, its owners hope, more televisionlike. The underlying reason is money, of course, but the immediate issue is control. By cutting away the user-driven underbrush and shepherding viewers, especially those with YouTube accounts, toward TV-like content channels — an increasing number of them produced by corporate media partners — YouTube and its owner, Google, will gain more control by giving amateur videographers less exposure and funneling viewers toward fewer choices." TV experience on the web, professionally produced, fewer but better content. Are the lines between the TV set and the web becoming more and more blurrier?

YouTube's original objective was to enable consumers to share their videos with family and friends. Upload once and share among all. But that primary mission has evolved over time as its original owners sold YouTube to Google. The business plan is all about revenue and "the redesign is to push the viewer toward the higher, more brand-name end." More clicks, more ads, more revenue, more profit. The amateur video will be pushed further down the long tail. And the higher the viewership on a particular "channel", the easier it is to charge higher advertising. Is the article calls it, "predictable viewership for specific content". It is the TV model pushing ratings to garner premium pricing.

Will the amateur videos still exist on YouTube? They still generate ad dollars based on total views across all video clicks, but they will be harder to find. How the search button will push these viral videos over professional content remains to be seen. It may affect too how the next piece of amateur content is or isn't discovered. Search and recommendations may be pushing more professional content over amateur and that might be the worst sin of all for You Tube users.

Last point, like any good business model, the more revenue streams the better. Currently, YouTube has only the ad revenue stream. That may change as well as You Tube ponders a premium model to gain a subscription footprint. It worked with Hulu Plus, why not YouTube. Free only works for so long.

Should Verizon Buy Netflix?

Build it or buy it may be the discussion inside Verizon these days on what to do about a movie rental business. It seems owning the wireless spectrum isn't enough, it is important to also have services to sell on that pipeline and the movie business can be lucrative.

As video consumption shifts more and more from DVD to online, so too changes the consumer preference to either own or rent. Studios pushing the sale strategy are pushing consumers with cloud ownership of digital copies with every DVD sold. And of course Apple and Amazon are there as well with their cloud strategies.

The movie rental business has been shaken up in recent months with the various missteps made by Netflix. And Blockbuster is trying to refocus their business with the help of their new owners Dish/Echostar. So now Verizon is considering making a play for Netflix and perhaps to help them re-establish their formal glory. "Chief Executive Officer Lowell McAdam told an investor conference on Dec. 7 that the company aims to move beyond its Fios TV service into the streaming-video business." And while the speculation is that Netflix is on the Verizon radar, why isn't Hulu also being considered. Hulu has indicated an interest in being sold while Netflix has not. Both require bandwidth that Verizon can support and Hulu offers a duel revenue stream of subscription and advertising. Plus Hulu doesn't have the burden of mailing DVDs and could support a theatrical film streaming service expansion.

Yes, I like the idea of Verizon pursuing a streaming distribution strategy. I just wonder if all the baggage hanging over Netflix will not allow them to recover and prosper again. My vote is for Verizon to consider a Hulu acquisition but should it be Netflix, the first order of business would be to roll back the pricing model, market to all former customers with an additional special incentive, and consider rebranding. How does NetFios sound?

Don't Write Off The Kindle Fire Or Amazon Just Yet

Today's New York Times' article might have left you feeling that Amazon's Kindle Fire was a failure. Sure there are complaints but that is not unheard of in this new unknown space. The tablet is still a very young product that has yet to reach its full potential and first generation problems can be cured if Amazon stays front and center with its customers. Empathize with them, recognize the inherent problems and come back ASAP with solutions; some may need to be short term fixes, others long term changes, but by being honest and agreeable with the customer, Amazon will retain them and continue to grow their share of the business. "Despite Amazon’s silence on the matter, analysts have been estimating the company will sell from three to five million Fires this quarter."

Amazon still needs to speak up loudly. Again history being a guide, how Tylenol quickly reacted t their packaging challenges many years ago enabled them to survive through a PR nightmare and remain a dominant brand. It is that truthfulness and commitment to act that can save or bury any brand. Even successful companies have made missteps. "All this would be enough to send some products directly to the graveyard where the Apple Newton, the Edsel, New Coke and McDonald’s Arch Deluxe languish. But as a range of retailers and tech firms could tell you, it would be foolish to underestimate Amazon." In fact, as many have seen, we learn much more from our failures than from our successes. Unfortunately some companies are not as quick to manage their mistakes. Look no farther than Netflix and the troubles they have had.

Amazon and the Kindle brand have built a ton of loyalty over the years just as Apple has had with its products. Communicating with that audience and managing that trust in a proactive way while resolving technical issues is the ultimate PR cure. Especially as articles, like the one in the NYT, appear. Otherwise, the opinion in the article's first two lines will be recited over and over again as fact..."The Kindle Fire, Amazon’s heavily promoted tablet, is less than a blazing success with many of its early users. The most disgruntled are packing the device up and firing it back to the retailer." And that is not the kind of perception Amazon wants to have floating around.

TiVo Having A Good Month

TiVo seems to be all over the news these days with more and more good news regarding its distribution. Earlier this month came word that DirecTv was pushing its TiVo box and now the rollout of TiVo on Charter in the Fort Worth system and full rollout by June 2012. This deal was announced almost one year ago so it is nice to read that it is actually available in market. "Charter-branded TiVo PremiereCharter's TiVo DVR will be $20 per month; during a limited promotion period, subscribers can get additional TiVos for $10 per month for 12 months."

"For TiVo, attracting subscribers through operators including Charter and DirecTV is critical to its future. For the quarter ended Oct. 31, TiVo gained 117,000 net subs, thanks to the rollout of a TiVo-based box by the U.K.'s Virgin Media -- its first net gain in more than four years." These US deals should give TiVo another strong quarter. As a TiVo fan, I look forward to seeing them drive distribution across the other major cable operators.

ABC Putting First Season Shows On Web

There always seems to be a little hesitancy when it comes to making TV shows available outside its linear time slot. Before web video, it was on demand and networks were extremely cautious about offering their best shows on this new distribution platform. When on demand first was offered, cable operators were lucky to find scraps of shows that networks were willing to offer. Some may argue that contractual issues prevented networks from placing shows on demand; most others were fearful that on demand would take eyeballs away from ratings and thus hurt their financial success. But there were some cable networks willing to take a risk with on demand. Some actually offered sneak peaks of their first run shows prior to their linear time slot. The result, audiences grew and ratings didn't suffer. Today we have more sophisticated research to show viewership and build ad revenue, but it has taken years to gain acceptance.

But technological change doesn't stop and the growth and demand for more online video runs rampant. So it is great to read that ABC is using the power of the web to grow interest and ratings of its first run series. "Looking to give a promotional push to two promising series, ABC will make their entire libraries available online over the next month. All episodes of new first-season shows “Once Upon A Time” and “Revenge” will be accessible on ABC.com or through the network’s iPad player." Especially for episodic shows, a great opportunity for new viewers to catch up and get engaged with the show.

Online can also provide better targeted advertising that appeals to the viewer. More interest, more viewers, and more revenue. Today's primary audience, Adults 18-49, are spending more and more of their time on their digital devices - laptops, iPads, iPods, and iPhones. Getting them to discover new TV shows is tougher given the clutter of choices that exist. Bringing shows to them online is the first step in re-engaging with them where they are most likely to view. I look forward to hearing from ABC how this digital tactic has worked to build stronger viewership and interest in their shows.

Is Research In Motion (RIM) For Sale or Going Bankrupt?

What is the long term future for Blackberry? Once the darling of all businesses, it has lost its edge to both the Apple iPhone and other smartphone devices. Blackberry has not adapted fast enough and it allowed others to successfully takeover its space and market share. In addition, it's take on the tablet market with the release of the Playbook demonstrated that they did not understand the needs of the consumer. "We are still shocked the Playbook does not have native email functionality". What is obvious is that RIM behaved like other market leaders; they were set in their ways, adverse to risk, and unable to innovate against its rivals.

So the question is what will happen to RIM. Analysts don't seem to believe that RIM is an acquisition target, although they continue to see a depressed stock price. But what if a company was kicking the tires on the maker of Blackberry and could build some synergy to advance themselves in the mobile marketplace. Google took that step with Motorola. So let me throw out one name offered to me this morning. Could Microsoft benefit from purchasing RIM? Blackberry still has its feet in the market and there are loyalists to the product. Microsoft has the operating system and as my friend speculated, Windows 7 could be built into the next generation of blackberry products. A risky purchase given the trajectory that RIM is headed but fresh legs through acquisition might just allow it to survive and prosper again. Food for thought as the mobile industry continues to expand.

Verizon and Cablevision Fighting Again

Even when I am not looking at the TV, the moment a certain music bed is played, I know that it is the Verizon FIOS ad regarding Cablevision's slow broadband speed. Then I look up to see a closeup of eyes moving in circles with the VO ..."Are you suffering from cable...vision." As an ad, it is memorable because of its unique music, copy, and video; but is it accurate? It seems it may have been true in March of this year but not anymore, not since Cablevision upgraded its plant. "According to Bloomberg, the suit states that the study was conducted before an upgrade of Cablevision plant boosted performance significantly. The Bethpage, N.Y.-based MSO said its average download speeds are more than 90% of advertised download speeds during peak hours and are above 100% of advertised speeds on a 24-hour basis." Yet, at this point, the ads are still running.

And while Verizon fights with one cable company, it has agreed to partner with three others as a result of a wireless transaction deal. At some point in the next three years, Comcast, Time Warner, and Bright House will be able to sell Verizon Wireless service packaged with a cable subscription.

Lastly, the fight between Verizon and Cablevision may not be as simple as it seems. It's not just about broadband speeds. Although MSG and AMC Networks are no longer owned by Cablevision, they do share a common family ownership. Lack of deals for the hi def channel of certain networks may have raised the notch for nastiness in this latest battle. And as the ad has successfully caught the consumer's attention, it simply spreads more salt into the wound between these two telecommunication giants. Who will win; perhaps, the damage is already done.

Every TV Seems To Need A Connected Box

The days of turning on a TV set and turning the knob to different channels are long over. Our kids have no idea what a UHF or VHF channel is and only use one button on the TV set for on and off. A channel is locked on to one frequency and then the work of the other box begins.

So how many different connected boxes are attached to your set? Of course there is the cable converter box offering us HD signals and perhaps even a DVR. Others love their TiVo box for recording shows and some have even gotten CableCards to access cable programming. Those that need their programming to follow them outside the home have attached a Slingbox to their set. And some have unplugged themselves from this cord but still need the connection to the web for their over the top boxes, including Roku. And with every new one you buy, is one finally unplugged? Perhaps you have added a Blu-Ray but disconnected your DVD player and your VHS player was removed years ago. And for the gamers in the family, a connection is needed for the Xbox, Wii, Playstation 3, or even a classic Atari (although I hope not).

And TV manufacturers have tried to incorporate connectivity to the web so homes can access their Hulu Plus or Netflix subscriptions through the TV directly and not through another box. But it seems there is a need for an external box whether we like it or not. Perhaps Apple should update their Apple TV box with Siri and enable it to talk to all the other boxes that connect to the TV set. Then at least we could reduce the number of remotes on our coffee table.

Can The Xbox Replace The Cable Box?

It seems today that every TV needs some type of box next to it to make it function better. In the early days, that box controlled the antenna which tried to tune in the best reception possible. Since then, the cable box has been the standard device to deliver a quantity of channels. But truthfully, the cable box has improved little in the eyes of the consumer and its clunky guide and search has hurt it. So is the Xbox the next box to take over our TV viewing?

"Beginning on Tuesday and continuing through the month, Microsoft will give a face-lift to its Xbox Live online entertainment service that will allow subscribers to watch a wide array of mainstream television programming from the Xbox 360 console." So if you subscribe to Xbox Live for its gaming interface, you can begin to choose whether you want to watch programming through its box or your cable box. Since Xbox requires an internet connection and owners likely also have a cable subscription, it may simply be redundant. What may sway users from using one device to another is in its access to guide and search. "Xbox Live users will be able to search for shows using voice commands and hand gestures, if they also have the popular Kinect peripheral for the Xbox."

Voice control via Siri is likely the next big news from Apple although it is not yet clear whether it will be in their existing Apple TV device or a newly manufactured TV set. Still where that programming comes from and how much is readily available is a big if.

In both the Apple and Xbox world, the missing component is the DVR. Will the Xbox enable shows to be copied for later use? Will Apple add a hard drive for DVR capture in their device? Is DVR still important in an on demand world? Certainly not everything is available on demand and customers still like the idea of ownership. "The Xbox is just one of many devices, including iPads and smartphones, on which cable operators and channels are making their content accessible. TiVo, for one, has announced a string of partnerships with cable operators to make its digital video recorder available to their customers. Unlike the Xbox, TiVo users get full access to all of the offerings of TiVo’s cable partners, Mr. Rogers, TiVo’s chief executive, said." But what if TiVo struck a deal to put its software in every Xbox.

In our household, the Xbox and cable box serve two different uses. The Xbox is playing video games and online chats with friends playing at the same time. The cable box for sit back viewing. While integrating the two boxes reduces the number of connections in the back of the TV set, they clearly have two different uses. And in a big household, two sets allows one to be used for gaming while the other is used for viewing shows. The Apple approach of simplifying search through voice may be more ideal for those just seeking the viewing option.

Will DVD Sales Rise From A Link With The Cloud?

When was the last time you bought a cassette tape? When CDs were created, no one tried to sell you a cassette with every CD you bought. Most likely because you were still buying a manufactured item. But with the rise of digital and now the cloud, the need for manufactured CDs and even DVDs is less and less. Yet, it seems that companies aren't ready to breakaway completely.

The rise of UltraViolet and in the UK, Blinkbox, is still being tied to the purchase of a DVD. All with the hopes of improving a dying distribution model. And while this strategy may lengthen the product life, the patient will eventually die and be buried. Such as it was for the 8 Track, the cassette, and soon the CD and DVD.

For the short run, a dual purchase makes everyone happy. "This is a fascinating link-up between atoms (DVD) and bits (streaming). The added value of the dual option could drive more plastic-disc sales at the checkouts." Ultimately, the customer no longer seeks to clutter their homes with jewel boxes of various shapes and sizes when their digital devices both store and play. The arrival of cloud based storage enables access of this same content wherever and whenever you want, although it requires that wireless access is present.

How long will this shared model last? The speed of adoption of tablets indicates that this process should only last a few more years at best. Notice that no tablet comes equipped with a DVD or CD reader; even laptops are being built without the hardware. Change is a coming and like the Laser Disc, the DVD will also become part of our history.

Sony Changing The Window On Digital Movies

Sometimes you have to just move on. While we like to hang on to old ways and old habits, change is inevitable. And when you finally give change a chance, positive things can happen. For Sony, it means no longer being rigid on the order in which a movie gets sold or rented. The DVD model is no longer the customer choice for purchase; the world is digital and so it means changing the order to move digital sales up in the pipeline.

Sony's first step in change is with it's release "Bad Teacher". By moving up digital purchases ahead of rentals and DVDs, they saw a marked increase in revenue. "More good news for Sony: It says demand for digital rentals didn’t seem to drop once they became available two weeks after digital sales started. And physical sales — still the most important source of income for the studio — don’t seem to have suffered, either." Sounds to me like a successful test and one that should be repeated with every movie release. How quickly Sony embraces this new strategy remains to be seen; for now, they seem to like to classify it as a test only.

With the rise of cloud based services from Apple and Amazon, the switch to digital will only progress more rapidly. As digital becomes the preferred distribution choice, DVD sales are destined to decrease faster. It is the inevitable results of change in consumer preference. The pace of this switch can be slowed with aggressive pricing discounts. Where once DVDs cost $20 or more, today they are in the $5 bin. And at that price they become a great stocking stuffer too.