Could You Tube Replace Cable TV?

The competition for viewer eyeballs continues to ramp up. Programming is moving off TV and being watched across multiple platforms via IP streams.  And the long tail of broadband programming is growing, not just with user generated content, but with professionally produced, high quality, long form shows.

Both Hulu and Netflix have announced original programming to bypass linear TV and go  directly to the web.  You Tube has been busy building original channels that follow the classic cable niche model with web networks devoted to specific interests.  "Which is why the Food Network and Cooking Channel veteran has checked out of network TV to oversee the launch of YouTube's latest original content channel, HUNGRY. The channel, which goes live on July 2, is expected to feature a freewheeling blend of how-to and celebrity-driven food videos."

Cable, as well as broadcast, programmers have noticed a drop in aggregate viewership.  Viewers are spending more and more of the video watching time on the web.  While some of it may be shows that originally aired on TV and other views are still with viral UGC content, more time is being devoted to watch professionally produced web channels.  Should Scripps be worried that their Food Network viewership could fall as consumers move to these competing channels?  Is that enough motivation to make sure that cables's linear and on demand product is accessible off the set and on the web?  Or will costs of cable subscription hurt the authenticated, TV Everywhere model, as cord cutting shifts off cable subscription to web subscription?

As more professionally produced content with more known talent invade the web space, a shift of viewership seems inevitable.  For pioneers in the web video space, this could just be the next web "golden age".

Does Facebook Offer A Strong Revenue Model?

With Facebook's IPO happening while simultaneously General Motors is pulling out their advertising dollars raises an interesting question.  Does Facebook have a long term growing revenue model?  GM says their ads didn't work on FB and so they are being pulled off.  "GM will continue to promote its products on Facebook, but without paying the social-media company, the GM official and other people familiar with the matter said. Many companies maintain free Facebook pages."  But will other companies follow suit or are they seeing a ROI that GM could not?

At the same time, FB announced that Q1 revenues declined this year from the previous quarter, although they are higher than Q1 of last year.  Personally, I can't say I recall any ads on FB although I sometimes chuckle when I see one of my friends saying they "Like" a product or company.  Should ads get more intrusive on FB, it may cause users to seek alternative social media sites.  One must wonder if an ad revenue model is enough to keep FB a long term "buy".

With its IPO, FB should be flush with cash and might consider acquisitions that expand its reach.  As the editorial in the WSJ suggests, they could consider entry into other businesses.  "The bold approach would be to buy a bunch of media properties as an outlet for targeted ads that the Facebook engine makes possible."  Another push might be into more e-commerce businesses and to be the central place to both buy and share your feedback about certain purchases.

Should consumers prove fickle and grow tired of FB, the concern may be that this is simply another example of the internet bubble.  Premature excitement but not enough tangible results.  As an investor, I am staying on the sidelines, as a FB user, I have watched my usage shift as I've grown weary of some of the changes to the site.

LightSquared Loss Means Less Competition

If only LightSquared could have solved the problems with GPS interference.  If only the FCC actually wanted more competition.  If only more could be done to encourage competition in the broadband and wireless space.  It seems that we have a limited number of choices for broadband and wireless providers.  While not a monopoly, there are clearly only a handful of choices for communication and data.

So it was with great hope that another entrant to the space could shake up the incumbents and provide high speed service to the masses.  But with LightSquared entering Chapter 11 bankruptcy, their time gets less and less.  Can they rebuild or simply sell off assets?   "Bankruptcy 'is intended to give LightSquared sufficient breathing room to continue working through the regulatory process that will allow us to build our 4G wireless network,' Chief Financial Officer Marc Montagner said in a statement. Reaching agreements with U.S. agencies may take as long as two years, he said in court papers."

For now, there is less competition in the space.  Can LightSquared rise from the ashes or will another emerge to take its place?  For the sake of competition and a free economy, more competition is better for the consumer seeking faster wireless and broadband speeds at lower prices.

Should Apple Make A Television Set?

Yes, Apple revolutionized the digital music space and yes, Apple, did the same with the tablet business, and yes, Apple owns the smartphone space too; but, does Apple really want to become a TV manufacturer?  Sony, Sharp, Panasonic and others are all having horrible years because of the tablet and smartphone space.  So is the TV set space the ideal market to enter?

Could Apple best be served concentrating on their Apple TV box?  Can Apple truly make enough content deals with cable networks to get access to their best programming?  And will consumers trade out their current Hi Def screens for an Apple TV set.  Consumers haven't embraced 3D.  And connected sets are working as a result of other boxes like Xbox and Wii.  Can Apple really revolutionize the TV manufacturing space?

Here's Johnny, Carson Back For One Night

I miss Johnny Carson.  He was water cooler television.  His Tonight Show was the epitome of late night talk.  So  I am excited to watch tonight's premiere on PBS of American Masters showcasing the career and life of Johnny Carson.  Talk about appointment television.

People loved to talk about who was on the Tonight Show and what they watched.  One of Johnny's idols and mine too, Jack Benny, gave Carson great advice.  Let your guests be funny.  Johnny followed Jack's style of the long pause, but never tried to out joke his guests.  The results were great television.  Yes, the guests got the greater laughs but everyone who watched always  referred to what happened on Carson's show. Johnny knew how to interview a guest and how to get the best out of them.   He, like Benny, really understood comic timing.  But as I am sure this documentary will show, there is more to Johnny Carson than what we saw on TV.

Watch Johnny and Ed on PBS. See more from American Masters.

So for those, like me, that miss Johnny Carson, this documentary may bring us back to those golden days and provide us richer context about the man.

Karmazin Feeling Hit on Many Sides Of Sirius

Mel Karmazin, CEO of Sirius, has been feeling quite a bit of heat lately.  With Howard Stern suing him for breach of contract to his former white knight, Liberty Media, trying to wrestle control from him, Mel has been having some bad days.  Of course the first round of the lawsuit went to Sirius, but Howard is pushing back on appeal.  And initially Liberty was told they couldn't take control but have now gone and bought more shares to increase their ownership stake.  The heat has been turned up and it appears that Liberty Media will shortly get their asset and Mel may find himself looking for the next big thing.

Time To Hop Over The Commercial

The VCR was first invented to play pre-recorded programs but became a great opportunity to tape and watch later your  favorite programming.  Some consumers had a hard time setting the clock feature; rather the clock always seemed to be blinking.  The DVR and TIVO made it even easier with no clock to pre-set.  Still, we had to manually skip through commercials to get to the programming.  Now comes from Dish, a new DVR that when set, automatically "hops" over the commercial break to the start of the next program segment.  No additional remote touching necessary.

Certainly, the  rise of technology to enable skipping commercials may rise from the number of commercials and the length of breaks on TV shows.  In most cases, non-programming time is 25% per hour.  The "Golden Age of TV" certainly never had so many commercials.  Consumer and business ingenuity created the solution with the DVR to counter the problem of too many commercials.

And yet, even with DVRs, I notice my own kids too lazy at times to skip ahead.  Despite heavy use of the DVR, once the show is picked, it runs through, commercials and all.  Adults are most likely more fed up with commercials then kids.  They still get information from them, toys to buy, movies to watch, new shows to record.

The "Auto Hop" feature on Dish DVRs just might appeal to those same consumers to lazy to manually skip ahead and willing to pay a bit more for the opportunity to have it done for them.  Heck, my kids sometimes yell out for me to come in to the room to skip ahead even though the remote is within their arms grasp.  So there just may be a market for those that want skipping done automatically.

And how do the content creators and advertisers survive? Better creative, less commercial breaks, product placement and in-program promotion, overlays, and all sorts of technological tricks.  The cat is already out of the bag with regard to the DVR.  "Auto Hop" is just another  feature.  These are results of too many commercials in programs and less time devoted to the actual show.  Why do viewers also like to watch online; less commercials.  Consumers are telling you the problem; it's time to pay attention.

An iPad In Every Size

Despite its share price being off its all time high, Apple continues to deliver. Every quarter, it beats its estimates as demand surges and revenues rise.  The latest speculation that ultimately will make investors smile is the arrival of new products in the phone and tablet line.  "Apple’s next iPhone will reportedly launch in September, and a 7-inch iPad mini will land in August, according to Digitimes."  Rumors also on the next model Macbook and when the Apple TV set will arrive, this year or next, as well as some next innovation that is yet to emerge.  And so the guesses will continue until the formal announcement as to what these next versions will include, faster processor, sharper screen, HDMI connectivity, and better streaming are all in the mix.  All we can do is stay tuned.

Has Content Lost Its King Status To The Audience

Terrific editorial questioning whether Content is no longer the king.  Once content left the linear world and became reachable on demand across platforms, the answer, according to the author was clear.  "No; because content is no longer enough. Content has always been a means to an end. And the end has always been audience."  An interesting analysis now that distribution is becoming ubiquitous and content can be accessed anywhere.  It becomes then the choice of the viewer which content and which distribution platform is to be used in order to be consumed.  And for the ad buyer, seeking to reach a particular segment, knowing where the audience is or how it is being directed to content, becomes the ultimate priority.

But wait, hasn't that always been the case.  The content may not have been everywhere, but it was still the draw that the audience desired.  Deals for distribution platforms are all about having the content that best fit its audience.  Distribution offered potential viewers; content offered the sustenance and the nutrition to consume.  Whether it is food, videos, data or something else.  Add to the mix pricing, packaging, and positioning and you have the basis of marketing.  But content or product is essential to the mix.  Distribution seeks content and audiences seek content where it is convenient and affordable and available to get.

Is knowing your audience essential; a resounding yes.  But the article assumes that content is ubiquitous and that is not the case.  Content remains king because it is how it is packaged, positioned, and priced that will drive the audience to it.  Ultimately, it is having the right content ergonomically accessible with marketing to draw attention to it that drives the audience.