To 3-D or Not 3-D

CES premiered a number of 3-D TV sets and cable networks, including Discovery and ESPN, have announced the creation of 3-D channels. And next month, consumers can actually buy a 3-D TV set. "Sears, the first US retailer to offer 3-D sets, is selling two models, a 46-inch set for $2,599 and a 55-inch one priced at $3,299. The sets are made by the electronics giant Samsung, which began selling them in Asia late last year. Viewers have to wear 3-D glasses to get the in-depth, visual effect that is now all the rage in the movies." And I believe it will be a big bust.

I believe 3-D today is a fad best used in theatres to draw kids and adults to pay more to watch a movie. Frankly, the glasses are awkward, uncomfortable, and viewing sites are more limited. It works in a theatre, it will bomb in the home. Without enough content, limited programming, ands the need to wear glasses, a 3-D set is not the near future of home entertainment. Until enough content arrives and can be watched without glasses, the future for consumer electronics remains HDTV.

Consumers are just now purchasing their big screen HD set and are not about to junk it for this development. Early adopters are instead buying multiple HD sets for more rooms in their house, while others are just now buying their first HD set. For the next few years, the future will be lower priced, bigger screens (55" and higher) HD sets for the main viewing and smaller sets for the bedrooms, study, and kitchen. Will consumers look at them in the store - yes. Will they buy a 3-D set - No.

For Networks, Web Can Increase TV Ratings

For Networks that rely on advertising revenue, the web is not evil. Viewers can walk and chew gum at the same time and they do watch TV and surf the web simultaneously. In fact, as the article suggests, the web's social networking tools allow a virtual water cooler to occur at the moment the show is airing. No waiting till the next day at work to talk about last night's show. "The Nielsen Company, which measures television viewership and Web traffic, noticed this month that one in seven people who were watching the Super Bowl and the Olympics opening ceremony were surfing the Web at the same time."

The challenge of talking to viewers in different parts of the country can limit this interaction and so some programming is being shown at the same time across the country. "Seeking to capitalize on the online water-cooler effect, NBC showed the Golden Globes live on both coasts for the first time this year, and the network reportedly wants to do the same for the Emmy Awards this fall, so the entire country can watch (and chat online) simultaneously." Ratings for broadcast networks should continue to grow again.

The challenge does remain for networks and cable operators that rely on cable subscription to grow revenue. Consumers are growing more weary of paying exorbitant fees and are using competition as one alternative to find lower rates. And cable operators continue to use Promotions and incentives off their regular prices to keep customers from switching. But the web will enable us to drop cable subscription and receive programming strictly through a web connection. Operators will try to recoup that loss through higher usage fees and other means. But as network license fees rise so will cable subscriber fees. How consumers fight this inflationary war will sure include how the web effects this business.

Jay Back on March 1

The commercials are airing and NBC is promoting The Tonight Show with Jay Leno. No, they are not saying new and improved; rather, a Beatles song announcing that he is back. Will Jay capture the old magic from the time slot? Will his old audience return to Jay from Dave? And will Conan prove that when he lands, his loss was another mistake for NBC? These are just a few of the questions critics have.

My thoughts. Jay will do better but not back to his old numbers. Dave will hold on to his lead for a while. And Conan should do better when he lands. Lots of hype on NBC.

And speaking of hype, how many times can they run The Marriage Ref and Parenthood ads. I feel like I have seen both shows and I don't feel the need to see episode 2 of either show!

Hello Comcast; NBC requires registration for online Olympic video

I like the Olympics. I don't like how NBC presents them and I long for less talk and more action. Talking heads are not my thing and some of their blather makes me cringe. But that is another topic. Instead, I note the article in the Washington Post indicating that NBC requires registration to its site to view the Olympics online. "Users who click on certain videos on the NBC Olympics site are asked to identify their providers and prompted to provide a username and password for their cable or satellite account. If they don't have a password, they must enter their account number. The registration is one-time only. The policy guarantees that no one will be able to bypass cable and satellite systems to watch Olympic events. The risk for NBC Universal is irritating their customers, many of whom probably don't carry their cable account numbers with them."

And this is precisely why the FCC shouldn't grant the merger of Comcast and NBC. Restriction of any form is anti-competitive. Why must a viewer be associated with cable or not. NBC is a free TV experience; it's web programming ought to be equally free; otherwise, it smells like a cable network that requires subscription. And in a less than subtle move, that subscription is to cable itself. Is this what a Comcast - NBC merger has in store for the consumer? "NBC Universal, which has said it expects to lose more than $200 million on the Vancouver Games, said the satellite and cable providers required the registration in return for helping to defray some of the cost of Olympics rights." Trying to hide this move behind a loss leader is not the consumers fault. So what that NBC payed too much for the Olympics. Broadcast has relied on an advertising only model to succeed. If it isn't working then call NBC by its true name - cable network; else, it should remain a no strings network.

Have I watched any Olympics online myself - no. I am loving the HD experience and find it comparatively much harder to watch online on a small screen. Give me a big screen, HD picture anytime. But I root for the little guy who seeks out more variety. If the only way to catch up on Curling is online, then let it be equally open to view.

Can Anyone Compete Against Facebook?

Facebook left My Space gasping on the ground and Bebo and Friendster in the dust. Now Google is announcing their plans to compete with the social space giant. It is called Buzz and will attempt to integrate with Gmail. "Facebook is a household name, and it takes a lot for a tech brand to reach that point. Google did it with search and iTunes has done it with music sales--which is why it takes massive companies like Microsoft and Amazon, respectively, to make a dent in that market share, and they've still had an uphill battle (to say the least)."

I am not a fan of Gmail although I continue to prefer Google for search. As a Facebook user, I have found it more valuable than even Twitter. Still, nothing lasts forever and Facebook will face more and perhaps better competition in the future. I believe Facebook considers this and thus continues to tweak its website to improve its social connections. And it has yet to falter. "Facebook has surpassed 400 million active members around the world, and additionally announced Wednesday that it has 100 million of those members using its mobile Web site." Pretty impressive numbers.

And unlike Twitter, it seems to do a better job of driving campaigns. Have you signed up yet to get Betty White on SNL. Over 200,000 people have so far! So good luck Google Buzz, you have a long road to go to beat the leader. And others before it itching for a share as well.

Watch Out Cable, Vudu Is Here

While I haven't used Vudu, I am intrigued by its capabilities. Too many times there is a movie that I would like to watch, but isn't found on my cable service. Not HBO or Showtime or Starz, not On Demand. And while I am not looking to rush out to Target to buy a copy of the movie, I would love quick and easy access to watch it. Hence, the appeal of Vudu, a service that seems to offer more movie titles than what is currently available through the converter box. "But if you want recent movies on demand (legally), the best bet has been Vudu, a set-top box that connects to the Internet. You can watch any of its 16,000 movies and TV episodes instantly on your TV."

In addition, the article describes the menu, search features, and other trick features of the service. The only thing it lacks is chapters to go forward more quickly. Still it seems to outpace cable's menu options and graphics by a mile. And as TV and blu-ray manufacturers bypass the cable industry to directly connect via the web, it is clear that they will very quickly get the upper hand on cable. Of course, cable companies will start to charge an arm and a leg more for higher speeds for web access. That is where competition is good. With Google talking about being an ISP provider and other companies thinking of ways to enter this market, cable subscription will erode. Hello wireless, hello Google, hello electric companies pushing broadband through its wires. Watch out cable.

Google Wants A Piece Of The ISP Market

Google wants a piece of the ISP market and could build a distribution platform that competes with cable. Or as the article speculates, it is a ploy to force cable operators to put more capital investment into their infrastructure. "Building out pipes and delivering bits is a lousy business. It's hugely capital intensive -- Verizon is spending ~$20 billion just on the first phase of its FiOS buildout -- and hugely focused on manual labor, customer service, etc. Add low margins and increased competition, and it makes no sense for Google to do this on a broad scale."

The cable platform will be replaced by IP and the financial model will be changed to take in more revenue from higher speed connections and less from cable subscription. And IP would enable more direct relationship between the content creator and consumer; the pipeline will simply follow traffic control and hopefully not turn into a toll collector.

Madison Square Garden Splits From Cablevision

The unraveling has begun; MSG is separate from Cablevision. While it helps to unlock the value to Cablevision shareholders, separating out MSG also enables the Dolan family to concentrate on sports and music and sell off the rest. And the rest means Rainbow Networks, including AMC, WE, IFC and others, and their cable system serving homes in NY, NJ, and CT.

How much value is unlocked we must wait and see. But what the Dolans do next is always a mystery. That they actually followed through on this plan to separate the two companies is amazing. Tracking stocks have been announced and withdrawn, sale rumors continue to surface intermittently. Can two companies with such an interwoven cast of characters really work independently?

Nook Arriving; iTab Says So What

With Valentine's Day in a week (wait you mean Christmas is over) Barnes & Noble has announced that their e-book reader will finally be available at their stores. "Barnes & Nobles, based in New York, said it was shipping Nook e-readers to the majority of its stores beginning this week, with devices on sale in stores as of February 10." Great, but so what. Apple has just announced it's tablet, the iPad, and the Nook and others pale by comparison. Is the Nook's thunder lost? Will consumers buy or wait and see what is the ideal choice. Or wait even more for the next generation to fix the bugs and come out cheaper anyway.

With newspaper and magazine subscriptions dropping, is anyone thinking about packaging them in with purchase. The Nook should create a deal, with every purchase get a free one year subscription to 1 newspaper and 2 magazines. Price it into the purchase price and sell the low package cost. Help out an industry and perhaps in return get extra advertising and PR back.

I look forward to the future of e-book readers when they are made of flexible materials that can be rolled up and stuffed into a pocket. Size, portability, mobility, and convenience.