Senate passes another DTV Transition extension bill

It's on, it's off, it's on, it's off...no not the clapper, the digital transition bill that could delay the transition date, now only 17 days away. Once again, the Senate has passed a bill to delay the transition; the House must again vote. President Obama wants a delay. What will the House do THIS time?

Per the article, "It’s Take Two on the bill the DTV Transition bill that would postpone the analog switch-off until June 12. The House of Representatives shot down the first one after a unanimous Senate vote, but this this revised bill might make it to Obama’s desk.

The Senate adjusted some wording within the bill that pertains to the budget and first responders. It still has the provision that allows broadcasters to decide when is the right time for them to switch off their analog signals. Just like the first bill, this one also passed unanimously and is headed down the hallway to the the House where they could vote on it as soon as Wednesday, February 4, 2009 if it passes the House Rules Committee in a timely manner.

It seems that with these changes, the bill might receive the 2/3 vote needed which would effectively extended the switch-off to June 12, 2009 and confusing millions of Americans. What a shame. (and a sham)"

Telcos Fight For Survival

Today's Wall Street Journal poses the question, which strategy will succeed, Verizon or AT&T, as they reshape their future. Both telcos would agree that the landline phone business is declining. Younger consumers especially are choosing their wireless device as their primary phone, and not even bothering to take a hardwire line. But the article sees each pushing a different strategy for success. For Verizon, the buzz is FiOS and competing in the cable space; For AT&T, it's pushing the partnership with Apple and the iPhone, and a less aggressive stake in its cable platform, U-verse. So who is more likely to succeed? "Industry observers say it is too early to tell which strategy will pay more dividends. While AT&T has taken a conservative tack, Verizon's FiOS gambit has always been more of a risk financially because it will take time to generate healthy margins on the video business."

For my 2 cents, I like the direction that Verizon has taken. For one, the iPhone success is short term; the iPhone exclusive deal will one day expire and for now Blackberry devices provides a good experience. For some, an iPod device can provide the bells and whistles without the calls. And for me, Verizon's signal and connectivity makes it the superior cellular service.

I like the Verizon strategy because their connectivity is both wireless and wired. They will have the advantage to build synergies off the two platforms and interconnect them in new ways. Ultimately, the connection to the home will provide multiple opportunities to monetize content. By connecting to the customer wherever they are, by any device, TV, PC, cell phone, Verizon is poised to be the glue that manages our communication, information, and entertainment needs. As FiOS reaches scale, it will be able to aggregate its customers and understand their consumption patterns.

In fact, I believe that the next stage for Verizon is to own content. Today Cablevision and Time Warner use their local news operations, News 12 and NY1, to keep consumers on their platform. As Verizon acquires a network or website, it would be able to build a compelling interactive experience that can be merchandised across its wireless and wired platforms. Cable has yet to add a working wireless platform to its triple play model. With content and cable, data, phone and wireless platforms, Verizon has the opportunity to leap ahead of AT&T and the cable operator.

Digital TV Delay Falls Through, Modestly Good News For Cable, Telcos

The digital transition date is on, it's off, it's on, it's... The House failed to approve the bill that was passed in the Senate that would have delayed the transition date till June. And so, for now, the switch will be turned on February 17. For the poor and elderly who have yet to get a digital converter, let alone the voucher to buy for pennies, may be left without their TV signal. For them, the solution is to either do without, purchase a converter (there is no time to get a voucher), or contact your cable, telco, or satellite provider and hook up.

"This is modestly good news for cable companies like Comcast (CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (TWC), telcos like Verizon (VZ) and AT&T (T), and satellite TV providers like DirecTV (DTV), which expect to sign up incremental customers because of the digital transition. It's also modestly good news for wireless carriers Verizon, AT&T, and Qualcomm (QCOM), which bought billions of dollars worth of analog TV airwaves in last year's FCC auction to use for wireless services."

Will another bill be legislated in time to postpone the switchover. For now, it seems less likely. 20 days left. The clock is ticking

Sirius to be Available on IPhone

If you can't get Howard Stern on your car, how about on your phone. In a move that just might find a new revenue stream, iPhone users will be able to get Sirius on their device. How much it costs and whether current Sirius subscribers get a discount have still not be revealed. Still, it sounds like a terrific way to expand the Sirius audience reach. "According to these sources, the uSirius StarPlayr app will be submitted to the Apple Store by Saturday, January 31st. After submitting, Apple simply needs to approve the iPhone app, and it will go public."

I am also reading that it will be available over a cellphone or WiFi connection. I look forward to reading more details on this new direction.

Amazon’s Kindle 2 Will Debut Feb. 9

The next generation of Kindle is coming out in a few weeks and hopefully Amazon has stocked up. "The device has been out of stock since November, after Oprah Winfrey touted the device on her show. The announcement seems to confirm our suspicions that the original Kindle has been obsolete since that time and that everyone who purchased the device over the holidays from Amazon.com — or put their name on a waiting list — will receive the newer version." There continues to be chatter about what the new features will be, most likely better graphics and faster refresh. According to reports, "the new device corrects some of the design flaws of the first model, adding round buttons instead of those strange angular ones, and smaller side buttons to avoid accidental page turns."

Sony will ultimately respond with their next version of its Reader. So where is Apple and why have they not responded with a product in this space? The Iphone can't do everything; it's screen size is not large enough to replace the book/newspaper/magazine experience. A larger device is required. Still Apple has the advantage over Sony of the infrastructure through itunes to download and save content. It could compete with Amazon's site on day one. Apple could be poised to take and lead this next niche. But until they do, Kindle will surely prosper.

Why Ad Rates Are Plummeting And What It Means For Publishers

In economics, we call it supply and demand. Add the price elasticity component and well, that is explaining the state of ad networks and new media today. This article clearly explains the path we are headed. As content publishers look at monetization tools, from ad revenue to subscription, how they earn their revenue is being affected by glut and cheaper alternatives. For advertising, their CPM is being hurt when ad networks are discounting their own ads in the remnant, or secondary market. Why buy an ad directly, if it can be bought for less by an ad network. "Agencies and advertisers can't resist the discount and begin to buy their way onto premium sites through ad networks only. This drives down the amount of inventory publishers can sell on their own and increases their reliance on ad networks. The vicious cycle continues."

And does specific content matter. For agencies using demographics to reach a particular audience segment, does it matter whether they are reading a premium site or "stocks r us". Same audience and reach at a lower cost with more frequency. "Why pay a $25 CPM to reach that wealthy, 50-year-old, Boston-area living, Mercedes Benz-owner on NYTimes.com when you can pay a $.60 CPM to reach the same guy five minutes later when he's reading a five-year-old article on stockjocksofwallstreettheblog.com's archives?" This economic model ultimately leads to more price wars and lower pricing.

And so, content publishers will need to offset this loss of revenue by restricting ad networks from re-selling their content, marketing the value of the content and the brand, and perhaps even charging a subscription fee for access. At the same time, the internet continues to increase the amount of accessible content; how it is controlled and managed within web sites will bring more control back into the advertising model.

Actor's Strike Unlikely

I guess SAG had to wait till after their awards show to make changes. No use stirring the pot before the big televised event. And so they waited till the day after to fire their national executive director and chief negotiator, Doug Allen. At the same time, SAG will be joining forces with the other actor's union, AFTRA, to renegotiate their advertising agreements.

"The negotiating committee for the union, which has been working without a contract with the Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers since last June, will now shrink to a 10-member task force, according to the Associated Press." I have a better idea, accept the AFTRA agreement with AMPTP and move forward. It's time to move forward, not waste more time or money, when a legitimate deal with actors has been already struck.

Senate Agrees To Move DTV Transition Date

The senate bill proposes to move the digital transition date from next month, February 17, out five months to June 12. This bill must now be worked out with a House bill. Tick tock the clock is ticking. The public isn't ready for digital; I say this bill gets worked out and the transition is delayed.

Syndication Is Not Dead

Despite the dire predictions, the word on the street is that syndication of TV programming is not dead...yet. "As another NATPE gets under way in Las Vegas, amid the perennial reports of low attendance and sparse sales, here’s something worth remembering: Syndication isn’t dead." That is the word being spread around. "More important, both 'Wheel' and 'Oprah' generate millions upon millions of dollars in profit for the companies involved in their production and distribution. Same goes for anyone fortunate enough to have a piece of 'Entertainment Tonight' or 'Who Wants to be a Millionaire?' or 'Tyler Perry’s House of Payne.'”

But as alternative distribution models grow, both online and mobile, will that hurt the current syndication model or can it actually be an opportunity for more revenue? As local broadcasting is faced with declining revenue, can they afford syndicated product? WIll they need to rely on originally produced local content to differentiate themselves not only from other local broadcasters but also from the web and sites like Hulu. The article may be worrying about the next generation of syndication personalities, but they should also worry about changing distribution platforms, too.