Screen Actors Guild contract expires

The question everyone in Hollywood must be asking, will there be another strike in 2008. The last strike proved that the economics needed to be changed, but the result seemed to be less work for scripted TV series, and more reality programming. So now there is less work, more anger, and what appears to be a large contingent of underemployed talent itching to strike to make it hard on everyone else.

While no strike vote has been called, the real date to watch is next week when the AFTRA vote is due. Should that union approve their deal, it will be hard for SAG to strike; but should they succeed in convincing AFTRA members to vote against their leadership, a strike vote seems destined to come. Unfortunately in today's economy, a strike would have a devastating effect. "In its statement Monday, the producers alliance warned of the damage of another walkout, saying a work stoppage would cost SAG members $2.5 million in wages every day. Other labor groups in the industry would lose $13.5 million, while the California economy would take a daily $23 million hit, it said."

An agreement needs to be made soon. Without a contract, producers have begun to delay work, fearing a stoppage in the middle of production. SO even without a strike vote, business will be hurting. Despite the July 8 AFTRA vote, SAG needs to look for a solution and not an excuse to strike; it is in no ones best interest.

Video downloading without Cable VOD

Just as cable has gotten consumers comfortable with the notion of renting a movie through their cable box, as opposed to the video store, film studios are seeking ways to bypass the cable company and talk directly to the consumer. With the rise of the XBox 360 and Playstation 3, viewers can watch movies directly from their game consoles. Economically, film studios would no longer have to split their revenue with cable; but if not them, then Microsoft is happy to take a piece. "Sony will likely unveil details about its videostore at the E3 confab in Los Angeles next month. At the same event, Microsoft is expected to announce a partnership with Netflix under which users will be able to stream movies from that company's "watch now" service onto a TV via the Xbox 360."

As customers put more external devices on their TV set, they can bypass the cable box to download content. And don't expect Apple or Amazon to sit back quietly. They are enjoying the revenue from web downloads and would sure like to participate in this big screen grab for content. Ultimately this competition of devices could make it harder to search for content, unless it creates duplication across multiple platforms. Regardless, digital distribution opens up the pipeline to more players and more competition and that tends to lead to lower prices.

Phone Giants Roll Out 'Three Screen' Strategy

"The nation's largest phone companies sell packages of wireless phone service, Internet access and pay TV to consumers. Now they're taking integration one step further, airing video programming -- and selling ads -- across all three platforms. Content and advertising deals used to be struck separately for each platform. But Verizon Communications Inc. and AT&T Inc., for instance, have cut deals with media companies that allow them to distribute programming -- from "Saturday Night Live" clips to user-generated video -- to cellphone, broadband and TV customers."

Regardless of the device, regardless of where you watch content, or when you watch, advertising can be targeted to reach you across platforms. Phone companies may have let the hard line phone business become invaded by cable, but they are clearly banking on wireless phone as their domain. Combining wireless reach with their movement into cable and hi speed, provides them with a potentially lucrative advantage, provided that they can correctly market a "quad" play - one price approach to the customer.

With access to the consumer across all potential screens, and the ability to integrate ad messages across all platforms, telcos can take serious business back from cable. It seems that cable will need a wireless strategy to continue to effectively compete.

Multi-Platform Ads Boost Effectiveness Of Campaigns

Integrated marketing campaigns that work across all platforms, TV, radio, web, etc, naturally are more effective as they use frequency and reach to break through the clutter. But how many ad budgets can afford to spend across so many platforms. The rise of internet advertising and its ability to hyper target a specific audience is proving so popular as to see it already surpassing other old media platforms in ad spending. Per a Bloomberg report, " Internet advertising spending will surpass radio this year, with about 9.5 percent of ad budgets worldwide allocated to online media, said Steve King, head of Publicis Groupe SA's ZenithOptimedia unit." And internet ad spending will shortly overtake other media as well.

The solution for these businesses is to build out content across multiple media platforms. And so we find all these content creators merchandising their content across web platforms. Digital growth requires all businesses to create content that can be consumed across multiple platforms to retain their fair share of ad budgets. "Consumers spend 15 percent of their time on the Internet, while 9 percent of advertising budgets are on the Web, leaving room for growth, King said. He said rising Internet use will also drive online ad spending, with 19 percent of the world's population having Web access in 2008, compared with 17 percent last year."

And so we see radio networks, magazines, and other old media businesses talk about their online businesses; it is where their audience is heading and they need to stay relevant in this new space. But they can also offer the opportunity to reach and target their audience across multiple platforms that their content touches.

Reading the Kindle with Your Morning Coffee

Perhaps what it will take for devices like the Kindle to truly succeed will require newspapers themselves to put their support and promotion behind them. As the pros and cons of this first generation of readers become more apparent, next generations will obviously be created to exceed all expectations. And financially, the Kindle may prove the economic preference, especially in a slower economy. "It also makes financial sense. A combined year's subscription to the Times and the Journal costs about $880. The combined purchase price of the Kindle, plus a year's worth of subscriptions to the Kindle editions—granted, not quite an equal product—amounts to a total of only $647, a savings of $233 in the first year. Assuming all the prices stay the same, the savings climbs to more than $500 in the second year. Plus, there's no delivery person to tip at the end of the year."

Its upside is convenience and ease of use, the downside, like most electronic devices is the need to keep it charged. And as we continue to hold onto so many devices that require constant charging, we need a common charger that can work with multiple devices, but thats a discussion for another day.

Papers Facing Worst Year for Ad Revenue

"The primary long-term threat to newspapers is the Internet’s siphoning away of ad revenue, a trend that has been under way for more than a decade, but one that has picked up speed in the last year. Advertisers have vastly more choices online than on paper, so newspaper Web sites win only a fraction of the advertising that goes digital, and it pays much less than advertising in print."

But print media isn't the only industry facing change. The broadcast industry is also facing decreases in their ad dollars as cable television better reaches key demographics with better reach and frequency. "The shift in advertising dollars from broadcast to cable is not new, but it is particularly pronounced this year. There are several explanations, analysts say, including the fact that the most popular cable channels on their best nights, now attract nearly as many viewers as some of the less popular broadcast networks. Over all, the ratings gap, once vast, has been gradually narrowing."

So both industries are facing a changing market. National Broadcast has adapted by buying up cable networks. Print has tried to adapt by buying websites. And in an interesting move, a cable company, Cablevision, is buying a newspaper, Newsday. The lessons to learn seem obvious; what got you to the dance won't keep you there. Businesses must continually adapt to meet the internal and external changes they face.

Consumers continually consume content. No matter in what form, print, video, audio. They consume to learn, to relax, to entertain, to play, to think. Companies that create content need to think outside the box to new avenues and distribution paths to connect their content with the consumer. And as consumers, we expect our content on demand, what we want, when we want it. Speed matters.

Take for an example the untimely passing of George Carlin. Print media had to wait more than 24 hours to deliver the news, while TV and the web could provide full information in a timely and immediate manner. No wonder, today's consumer no longer seeks the newspaper to learn new information. The current distribution model is broken and either the content has to change to reflect a different use for the product or the distribution has to change to regain the connection with the customer. It is necessary in this changing landscape.

Apple: 5 billion songs sold by iTunes

That is an amazing number. With a business that is only about 5 years old, that's about 1 billion songs each year, at $.99 a song; well you can do the math, a billion dollars in revenue a year. Add to that all the iPods and iPhones being sold and Steve Jobs has built an amazing business model. Oh, and what about digital videos. On top of all the song downloads, "The company added that iTunes customers are now renting and buying more than 50,000 movies every day, making iTunes the world's most popular online movie store." And movie revenue should increase their pockets even further.

Apple has done to Sirius and XM Radio, what the NAB couldn't; they have shown that a competitive model can negatively impact the satellite radio business. While their stock has been battered, and the FCC has not yet approved their merger, they have lost a step in effectively competing in the mobile entertainment space. This merger needs to be approved to enable Sirius to more effectively fight in this very competitive landscape.

Huffington Post starts local news push

Recently, I have been having a sense of deja vu. It seems as I pick up the newspaper and read its articles, I have a sense that I have read these stories before. Perhaps that second reading of the same news helps to remind me that I did indeed read it and causes me to better remember what I have read. They say repetition improves memory.

Still, I wonder if the web's impact on my news gathering will shortly force me to abandon the newspaper for my digital paper. I equate this to when I stopped using the newspaper to get the movie schedule and times as the web became faster and more convenient. I feel like the day will shortly come where I will no longer go outside to my driveway to pick up the paper and simply turn on my pc or digital device to download my day's news.

As one of my sources for news content, The Huffington Post has become a daily, or even twice daily read, for the latest headlines, politics, media, business, and even entertainment news. Its desire to add local content is encouraging, but I may be unnecessary. I can easily download other sites to get that information, too. Still, their mission is to be the internet newspaper and local is a part of that coverage. They are indeed challenging the current landscape.

TV networks brace for potential actors strike

I am dreading a repeat of last November's writer strike. A compromise could have been found without striking; the aftermath of the strike was disastrous. AFTRA split with SAG over their negotiation position and found an agreeable solution they could live with. That AFTRA vote is scheduled for July 7 or 8. SAG is trying to convince AFTRA membership to vote against the deal. AFTRA recognized that a strike was not beneficial to its members and found a common ground with the producers.

And while SAG has not yet authorized a strike vote, they seem to be headed into that direction. Yes, TV and the movies survived the writers strike; but it is clear that it hurt the economy and quality TV viewing. Thanks to the writers strike, we now enjoy American Gladiators, Celebrity Circus, prime time game shows and even more reality programming on TV today. Sorry, I find most of it unwatchable. Another strike will simply further push us to the web and our library of old movies to replace new viewing choices. And ultimately our fragile economy will only be hurt further.

What a shame that SAG has not learned anything from the past. The writers union, still suffering from their strike, will feel compelled to join the actors picket line, as the actors did for them. I'm sure they will have lots of stories to share on how wrong this second strike would be for them all.

And while the last strike has caused the networks to start early to refill their line-ups, there will not be much new in the pot should the strike extend for a long period. "About half of all prime-time dramas and sitcoms are now shooting for the fall, allowing networks to stockpile a handful of new episodes in the event of an actors' work stoppage, said one studio insider who spoke on condition of anonymity" But that may mean 2 or 3 episodes of certain series and that will get used up quickly.

The biggest indicator as to whether a strike occurs or not will be the results of the rank and file vote from AFTRA. That will provide SAG with some clue what their own membership wants to do. "Other Hollywood insiders see an actors strike as relatively improbable given the leftover fatigue from the writers' work stoppage. Some question whether SAG could even muster the 75 percent majority vote it needs in a strike authorization." I hope they come to their senses and resume negotiating in good faith.