Dish and AT&T Partnership Rumors Continue

If not a Google - Dish partnership, talks of AT&T acquiring Dish have also been around for a while.  What value the wireless spectrum has may just depend on what the FCC determines, but AT&T might also like to work with Dish on how best to use that asset.  And that may affect Dish's future stock value.  "Dish's premium could reflect lingering hopes that it will decide to sell off the spectrum, whose value Bernstein estimates at about $8 billion, equivalent to 50% of the company's current market capitalization. Mr. Ergen has said this isn't his intention."

Dish's possible future continues to take many turns.  Google and AT&T have been mentioned, but so has DirecTv. A merger of the two satellite providers, if approved by the FCC would rival the size of Comcast.  Whether that merger was viewed as anti competitive in the satellite space, as opposed to bringing more size parity to the cable space, remains to be seen.  Regardless, Dish seems to be in play and the question is who will they hook up with.

Dish Wants A Wireless Business And So Does Google

Dish Network is the second largest cable satellite provider in the US.  They also have clear intentions to be a leader in the broader wireless world. Having picked up wireless spectrum for the past few years, Dish is trying to figure out how to get the FCC approval to utilize it for two way mobile communication.  And while Dish has tried to find another mobile partner to gain a foothold, nothing has taken root.

At the same time, Google has been pushing to enter the broadband space as well.  Their fiber build in Kansas City has been one way to control a broadband pipeline but capital to build a national fiber frame may be too big, even for Google.  "According to 'people familiar with the discussions,' Google has talked with Dish Network about the possibility of creating a new wireless service."  For Google, the collaboration could mean greater connection between content and distribution for all of its mobile devices; for Dish, a possible larger audience to sell cable product and interactivity.  And the challenge for both, sharing and not owning outright.

"Don’t get too excited, though. Dish still doesn’t have regulatory approval to build a wireless network with its spectrum, and it doesn’t have the necessary infrastructure, either. If Google and Dish formed an alliance, they’d either have to build their network from scratch–a massive investment, no doubt–or partner with another company that had its own infrastructure already."  Still the size of this collaboration might give them the leverage and credibility that they need to move a project of this size forward.  Could they attract enough customers away from their current wireless provider; well as costs rise, customers are always attracted to lower cost alternatives.  And this new potential entrant could just disrupt the current model.

Is Rupert Murdoch An Anti Semite - A Bad Tweet

Sometimes kids say the funniest things: sometime, so do adults.  And sometimes, when they don't realize it, they can forget who they are talking to, or more importantly, who may be listening.  Mitt Romney forgot that when he mentioned the 47%.  And now it it Rupert Murdoch's turn.  Murdoch, the head of a media conglomerate, and one who clearly should understand the power of communication, got caught in the headlights.  His tweet, “Why is Jewish owned press so consistently anti-Israel in every crisis?”, begs the question, what were you thinking.  But Mr. Murdoch, you own huge media conglomerates including The Wall Street Journal, The Times of London, and even Fox News.

And while Mr. Murdoch did back track, perhaps what we really want to hear is your editorial telling us what you really believe.  The trouble with 180 characters, it's hard to know more than a a nice headline; it's time to fill in the blanks and tell us your full position.

TV Watching On My Terms

It is a difficult job these days being a corporate television scheduler.  You may want to program your show on Monday Night at 10 pm, but your audience wants to watch it on Thursday at 8:30 pm.  With the help of DVRs, on-demand, and other platforms, the choice of when to watch is in our hands.  "This fall, 38% of young-adult prime-time viewing on the major networks (and 23% of all viewing) consists of previously recorded shows, Nielsen says. That's up from nearly zero a decade ago."  And while great for the consumer, it has brought a bit of havoc to the television and advertising industry.

As we have found, live TV viewing is down and consumers are watching shows past the 3 days that networks get credited for their ads to run.  Plus with Hulu, Netflix, iTunes, and other platforms, are choices have become unlimited.  But in that fragmentation, we have lost a bit of that water cooler mentality.  Very rarely now is there a TV show that encourages us to watch it live only to report back the next day and share in the gossip of retelling events and character lines. While some of it may exist in live reality TV, like America's Got Talent or The Voice, the scripted series has suffered.  No giving away plot lines as I have the show on my DVR to watch this weekend.

is this necessarily a bad thing?  I don't think so.  The access to content means that a show once aired has the ability to be watched on our schedule.  We are no longer forced to wait for a repeat airing over the summer. That the ads are being skipped over with technology.  Blame that on overloading ads into our shows.  DVRs have become both "payback" and "playback".  Innovative ad opportunities still exist.  Disruptive technology certainly changes the old business model but that always tends to lead to a better mousetrap.

DVR Usage Also Dropping

Yesterday's news indicated a drop in live viewing, due no doubt to all the other platforms juggling for our time.  Today's WSJ report now tells us that DVR usage this year is also down.  Of the four big networks, only NBC saw growth and the rationale for this is that they are finally airing more watchable programming than last season.  Overall, the downward trend makes network executives ponder these changing viewership trends.  "The data are likely to underscore concerns about traditional television viewing, suggesting that people are either watching broadcast television shows through on-demand services, or are turning to alternatives such as online video."  Still the additive viewership of both live and 7 day DVR viewing is up.

Of course this study is only talking about the broadcasters and not cable networks.  Yet, I would speculate that the same trend holds true.  Our attention span has become shorter and our sights keep shifting.  We are surrounded by so many alternative platforms, from tablets and laptops to smartphones, that the TV at times becomes secondary.  The cost of TV service could also be a contributory factor to this decline.  And lastly, this notion to measure networks when, especially on other devices, consumers watch shows.

More Video Platform Choices, Less Live TV Viewing

The rise of internet streaming, DVD and on-demand, as well as alternative TV usage for gaming has led to a small year over year reduction in live TV viewing, down 5 minutes.  At the same time, "Americans added another 5 hours in front of the computer screen in Q2 2012 as well, using the Internet or watching video content."  While this usage is being done at the same time as the TV is on or separate, 5 hours seems a substantial increase.  In fact, Nielsen research shows "Close to 40 percent of Americans say they now use their tablets and smartphones while watching TV at least once a day. As many as twice that amount of people do it at least once a month."

Our viewing preferences are clearly shifting but is this problematic for live TV?  Does a 5 minute reduction mean a growing trend?  It seems we have always been multi-taskers in front of our TV sets.  Whether reading a magazine, talking on the phone, eating a snack, or playing a game, we have treated the TV as background noise.  Only with high involvement type programming, especially sports, are we drawn more into the TV set. So the growing use of computers and tablets while the TV is on seems consistent with how we have always treated our relationship with the TV set.  In fact, the large screen size of the TV set makes it ideal for other non-live usage, from Netflix viewing to X-Box gaming.  Live TV usage may decline as viewing our our terms becomes more and more valued.

At the same time, content companies may need to shift to more live programming to keep audiences attentive.  Live showings of The Voice or American Idol and end of show voting and results are great examples of TV networks taking advantage of the benefit of live programming. News and sports also attract live viewing. It seems the most important requirement remains that the TV set remain in the on position.

Hurricanes and Technology

Like many others in the Northeast, our home was without power for a number of days.  Compared to many others, we were luckier; no property damage, no flooding and no loss of life.  And like many, our routines were disrupted.  As a family, the loss of power meant no heat, loss of food, and no light.  During the day, natural light was plentiful, but night meant candles, flashlights, and a fire in the fireplace.

Worse, was the threat that our mobile devices would run out of power; cellphones for communication, laptop and iPad for entertainment.  At night we played games on the iPod, watched DVDs on the laptop or on movies previously downloaded on the iPad.  We are a power hungry family.  And one night's use meant that they needed recharging

So what did we learn.  First, that we needed to go daily to the charging station at the  town hall or rec center to juice up.  We learned which restaurants had power and which didn't.  And the same with neighbors and friends that got power first.  We learned that the cloud may be a great way to get content, but that ultimately we need to keep a copy of the content at our fingertips.  More downloaded films and more DVDs for that "rainy" day.

Andy while my Verizon cellphone could make calls and get emails, my AT&T phone could not connect.   "Among the concerns: that backup-power strategies for cellphone towers based on batteries that can run for eight or 12 hours aren't sufficient in the face of outages that can go on for days."  Our electric grid that powers these towers as well as homes and businesses have glaring weaknesses.  Lines on poles above ground crash down as trees fall over and poles split.  We are held hostage by our respective power companies as they grapple with both the storm and public officials.  From town mayors to Governors, all expecting immediate results while some homes have been without power for more  than 2 weeks.  And our patience gets more and more strained.

Natural forces are not going away.  It is not a question of if, but when will the next one strike.  In a month, in a year, or in a decade.  Regardless, as technology improves, more must be done to protect our power infrastructure and improve how our devices are powered.  Solar charging, kinetic charging, or some other quantum leap to stay "juiced".  And while we expect the cloud to hold all our data, and our entertainment, we should always consider having backups accessible and ready to use.  The hurricane may be over but hopefully it provides an impetus to a better "powered' future.

The Death Of Channel Surfing

Perhaps, I am being overly dramatic, but the truth is that channel surfing is dramatically different today.   With the rise of digital channels and the latency of switching the clicker one channel at a time, it is less efficient to click through channels, watching each one for a moment to decide whether to stay on the channel or switch to the next channel on the line-up.  Today, it is all about the meta data and the interactive guide that presents 5 channels at a time and what is playing at the moment.  With a flick of the page up (or down) button, it is off to the next 5 until one show catches our eye and we either click in on it or click the info button to read the description of the show. In addition, we now search by show, by category (like movies or sports), or take our search to the next level and look deeper in our on-demand or DVR menu for content to view on our schedule.

The art of channel surfing by peaking in on each channel is no longer efficient,.  It has become a loss skill.  Of course, with all the tons of content accessible to watch, it was time for a new mouse trap to be built, a new way to find and watch.  Old fashioned channel surfing may be dead, but the choice of content is alive and well.

You Tube Following Darwin's Law

The investment in tons of content for You Tube appears to be over.  It is "eat or be eaten" for more than half the content projects that You Tube funded.  "YouTube figures it will end up re-investing in up to 40 percent of its original channels by the time the renewal process is done."  So who gets picked and who doesn't?  Well most likely it just takes a look at Google Analytics and ad revenue generated over a period of time.  But should the  decision be all quantitative or is there something to be said for a good idea.

As broadcasters have come to know, not every series does well immediately out of the gate.  Some, including Seinfeld as a great example, need time to get discovered and enjoyed.  A little nurturing of the right content can go a long way.  And of course the costs associated with getting an idea on air.

But what is Google's true plan, is it to cut its total investments by 60% or take the total dollars and offer to the fewer content companies they are extending renewals to?  Is content creation still part of the You Tube strategy or do they have another direction in mind?  Certainly working the long tail of content may be a difficult one compared to usage generated from folks like Hulu and Netflix who each aggregate content from major broadcast, cable, and movie studio providers.  And perhaps there is more need to focus on a competitive subscription service.

As for the near future, we will let Darwin continue to rule and watch the more successful You Tube Channels survive while the others must either find alternative funding to stay afloat or go away.