TiVo Gains From Lawsuits But What About Subs

TiVo is guaranteeing itself a nice annual revenue stream, but it seems to be coming from lawsuit wins and settlements.  The Dish victory is well known and now a settlement from Verizon keeps their momentum of protecting their intellectual license alive.  Remaining lawsuits with Time Warner Cable, Google, and Cisco may feel their best course of action will also be to settle rather than fight.

But what about the TiVo DVR product?  What does subscriber growth look like?  The product is great, but without a growing base, a long term business it is not.  It is now time to hear more about the cable deals and how TiVo will be sold and marketed to cable customers.  When will Comcast push out a TiVo DVR?  Like a tree falling in the forest, it is time to hear the fall.  TiVo is a great product that too many people don't know what they are missing.

Samsung Galaxy v Apple iPhone

My friend shared with me this video.  When it comes to smartphones, there are two camps, Apple and everyone else.  With the release today of the iPhone 5, Samsung thought to have a little fun.



Still having lost the lawsuit, owing Apple a ton of money, and watching Apple use Samsung less as its supplier, the question really will be, who has the last laugh.

Retailers Feeling Threatened By Amazon

Online retailing is real and the biggest threat to brick and mortar stores is the ability to get the same products online and in some cases cheaper.  Worse still, consumers can use box stores to browse while engaging in comparative pricing online.  And the biggest threat certainly comes from the leader of online retail, Amazon.

So it is  not surprising that stores like Wal-Mart and Target won't sell the Amazon Kindle line of products, it is that they had added their products in the first place.   "Amazon has already tested physical stores for other goods. Now, with two large chains no longer selling Kindle, speculation has grown that the dominant online retailer could open its stores where shoppers could try out and buy Kindles."  Certainly, Wal-Mart and Target, Best Buy and others have extended into the online space to compete with Amazon; it just seems odd that Amazon would consider building out a physical retail presence to match these big box stores.  It seems to me that Amazon's strength is that they don't have stores with high rents and other  fixed expenses to lower their profit margin.  Wouldn't Amazon be better served investing further in the distribution side of the business, perhaps taking an ownership stake in UPS or Fed Ex, and thus further streamline the process of moving product from warehouse to home.

Why Wal-Mart and Target thought carrying the Kindle was a good idea in the first place will always be questioned.  They knew from the outset where Amazon was coming from.  For Amazon, the question may be that the loss of these retail partners impact their Kindle business, but I doubt it.  Still if Amazon needs to become a retailer, maybe a Barnes & Noble or Toys R Us buyout is an opportunity for them.

Next Generation Of Cable TV

I have made this reference before so it is nice to see Ad Age reconfirm it; You Tube is doing to cable what cable has done to broadcast TV and broadcast to radio before it.  The next technology begins to take over as an emerging business as the leader scoffs that they are legitimate competition.  Some may see it sooner than others until ultimately the realization that they are no longer in full control comes too late.

For cable companies, it is the notion that cord cutting exists and that consumers will cut back or eliminate their cable channels for the web.  Yet, that is the direction and the pace is only increasing.  The emerging leader is Google and You Tube.  "Nearly a year into YouTube's $100 million-plus bet on content, more than 100 "original channels" have launched, and of those, 20 are now earning a million views a week."  What's interesting is that Google is also building out a cable distribution model with a fiber build in Kansas City.  With a blend of linear channels and connectivity to web content, Google may just find the right blended business to take the lead.

Of course, the bottom line is demonstrating that web can generate enough revenue to make it a financially viable long term business.  While TV viewership has always been blessed with statistics to measure perceived viewership based on sample sizes, the web and digital can deliver an actual number of views and usage.  For the long tail of programming, there may not be enough revenue to continue to produce little watched shows.  And that may be the challenge that faces more niche channels.

What Do Mitt Romney And The British Royalty Have In Common?

Believe it or not, Mitt Romney and William and Kate and Harry have something in common; in fact, we all do.  Our actions, words and deeds can not only be recorded, but also easily shared around the world.  We are now truly responsible for everything we do because someone may be taping it as proof.  And while we may still try to deny culpability, it is possible that it may come back to haunt us.

Did you hang out with those people?  Absolutely not.  No, let's go to the videotape.  Were you smoking an illegal substance?  No, let's look at the photos.  Did you say something inappropriate? No. let's go to the recording.  With the rise of cameras in smartphones, easy to place and record technology, long distance, telephoto cameras, our actions, words, and deeds are rarely hidden.  Someone can be recording us.  Not just individuals, either.  With security top of mind, police and businesses are also recording areas to assure that a record exists

Still, the more famous we are, the more likely that someone will be watching us.  The web assures that those photos, recordings, and videos can easily be shared across multiple platforms. Good and bad, we are no longer able to deny when we can too easily be recorded doing it.

Dad, The X-Box WIFI Connection Barely Works

Last night, my son was angry that the WIFI connection was slow and that while he could get online, he couldn't engage in a with his cousin's game.  Don't ask me the specifics, the bottomline was that the XBox was in the basement, the router in the study and he felt the distance made the WIFI unworkable.  He wanted to move the Xbox to another  TV hoping a closer TV to the router would solve his  problem.  The problem may be in the  technology and not the router or the distance.  "Most customers get little more than 50% of the capacity promised by their Wi-Fi routers, says Dr. Alex Hills, a professor of electrical and computer engineering at Carnegie Mellon University who built the first big Wi-Fi network. That speed is further slowed if multiple people try to use a network, he says."

With multiple devices using the WIFI, there may be little we can do other than to add a modem to the basement to get him a direct connection.  The WIFI is slow, while a direct connection could solve the problem.  But getting the cable company to provide another  modem may not be ideal.  Other ideas could be a newer router although ours is only a couple year old or a repeater in the basement to try and boost his signal.  "Mr. Boote and his friends, who subscribe to 15 megabits-per-second Comcast broadband in addition to TV, bought two 'powerline adapters,' which extend the range of their Wi-Fi signal by tapping into electrical power lines inside the house.  Devices, like an Xbox or TV, can be plugged into the adapter via a cord to provide similar high speeds to what they would get if connected directly to a router."  I may have to go a similar route to get his Xbox working properly.

Could Google Glasses Be More Dangerous Than Texting

Nice to hear that David Pogue is excited about Google Glass.  "Google doesn’t like the term 'glasses,' because there aren’t any lenses. (The Glass team, part of Google’s experimental labs, also doesn’t like terms like 'augmented reality' or 'wearable computer,' which both have certain baggage.)"

For folks like me that wear glasses, what will my prescription lenses look like?  But seriously, its's bad enough that people are walking and texting, or worse, driving and texting, on their mobile devices.  It sounds even more dangerous if these folks are distracted with their Google Glasses on their head.  And that me the biggest concern as texting and driving accidents are on the rise.  Maybe Google needs to first make driverless cars a reality.

Sirius In, Starz Out, For Liberty Media

John Malone's Liberty Media has a knack for collecting assets, from DirecTv to Discovery, he has accumulated and diversified his portfolio.  In today's news, he seems to want to both acquire and sell; he is accumulating more and more shares of SiriusXM in a move to gain ownership control, while at the same time, laying out notice that it may be time to sell his Starz asset.

"Starz, with 20.7 million subscribers, would offer a media company that operates other premium cable channels synergies that don’t exist for Liberty Media, (Chief Executive Officer Greg) Maffei said yesterday at a Bank of America-sponsored investor conference in Beverly Hills, California." So basic, ad-supported TV like the Discovery Channels work while premium supported, subscription based video services like Starz don't.  I'm just not so sure I can accept this statement as the whole truth, especially since SiriusXM represents another subscription-based service in the audio media space.  Does the rise in cable costs, consumer dropping of premium movie channels, and the trend toward online services have a bearing on the strategy behind this proposed move?  Is there more stickiness driving Sirius subscriptions through the automotive industry have more growth than premium cable? Should a potential buyer of Starz wonder what the long term value of this property should be?

Home Ownership Of TV Declining

The creeping effect of cord-cutting is happening.  It may take a decade or longer to be truly felt, but homes are dropping their TV and favoring other devices for entertainment.  "TV penetration stands at 95.8 percent of households, down from a high of 99 percent two years ago. Last year, Nielsen recorded the first such drop in TV households — defined as those with at least one TV set that receives signals via cable, satellite or old-fashioned rabbit ears."  So in two years, a penetration drop of over 3 percent in what is been characterized as a growing trend.  Should that trend grow annually, in 5 years, TV penetration could drop below 90% within 5 years.

Why could that be true?  Older Americans are TV staples, younger generations are preferring their broadband connection to their TV channel line-up.  This same group also has a growing preference for their Xbox, their You Tube, and their mobile screens.  Still, the TV in the home will not go away.  It's cable or antenna connection will likely be replaced by a broadband feed.  The consumer will have more choice what to subscribe to and what to watch free.  And at the end of the day, the price for an all you can eat cable model will only continue to get more and more expensive.