Can Hulu Survive Its Owners?

For viewers seeking online sites to watch their favorite TV shows, Hulu has been a welcome addition.  Missed episodes or catching up on a series, Hulu can be a great site to visit.  But Hulu seems ripe for self implosion; why?, because it competes with itself.

Hulu is owned by broadcast and cable networks battling each other in the linear space.  To come together in the digital space seems only a recipe for disaster.  And one that looks to get even more dicey.  One of its four owners, the only one without a cable or broadcast network, Providence Equity, is looking to sell out its share to the remaining partners.  "The approximately $200 million payment would allow Providence Equity to double its investment. The firm contributed $100 million in 2007 to help founding companies NBCUniversal and News Corp. launch Hulu. Disney came aboard as a partner in 2009."

All the folks at the networks that started Hulu 5 years ago are gone.  Comcast's purchase of NBC required them to give up a management role and be a silent partner.  Can one really expect that those running Hulu today, Fox/News Corp. and ABC/Disney, really want to work together?  Last year, they tried to sell Hulu, but then changed their mind.  Hulu may be making money but at the expense of their deals with their cable distributors.  And while it may be better to take money in this new platform through Hulu, it is hard to imagine that they can mutually manage this partnership without a lot of arguing and disagreements as to strategy and execution of tactics.  Without a middleman like Providence Equity to referee those battles, one wonders post their withdrawal from the business whether the remaining partners can still work together.

Last point, if they can agree to come together, is it time to pursue CBS to join the Hulu team?  The big 4 broadcasters partnering to own the digital streaming landscape.  Not likely, but what if.

Web Upfronts Like The Early Days Of Cable

Cable Networks changed the video landscape for broadcast when they arrived on the scene.  Early on, broadcast networks pooh poohed cable.  Most offered short form content, lots of informercials, and little original content.  And what was delivered was everything from music videos to ping pong to old syndicated programming.  But cable networks kept chugging away, building content and creating their own award show to celebrate it - the heralded CableAce award.  Of course cable networks made it when they were accepted as Emmy nominations and soon after as multiple winners.  And broadcast responded by buying up cable networks.

Today, it is the web that is the upstart to cable and broadcast.  And like history repeating itself, they are pushing through with their own version of an advertising upfront and their own version of an award show.  But it is only time when the original web productions from folks like Netflix, Hulu, and others get accepted into the Emmy awards and Web TV is as viewed as much or more than a cable network.  They may be in the long tail now, but they are doing to cable networks what the cable networks did to broadcasters.

For Time Warner Cable, Data and Phone Matter Most

Time Warner Cable just released their quarterly financials and they confirm everything that has been speculated.  Operators may be losing cable subscribers, but they more than make up for it with broadband and telco customer growth.  The profit margin for cable distribution is eaten up by rising license fee costs, where the pipeline is a cash cow, already built and pushing profit like water through a faucet.

The broadband and telephone business have the best profit margins for Time Warner Cable and others; so that any gain more than offsets their cable sub drops.  It may also suggest that cord cutting as it relates to cable doesn't bother the  cable companies as long as the cord for broadband and phone remain attached.  TWC may have lost almost 100k cable customers in the quarter, but they added over 200k broadband and over 100k residential telephone customers.  As a result, their profit margin grew above expectations.  Frankly there is gold in that pipeline.

So shedding cable customers becomes less and less of a problem for cable operators.  There are other services that can better utilize the existing pipeline to the home.  It is why cable companies are adding security services to their business offerings.  The pipeline provides the conduit for communicating the security system back to base.  Cord cutting cable service; as costs for programming rises, it becomes a less profitable business.  The money is in the pipe to the home, not the content that runs through it.

For Consuming Content, Its All About The Pipe

Great article in Gigaom, entitled The Future of TV isn't TV, that should be must reading.  As far as consumers are concerned, its no longer about TV consumption, whether broadcast or cable, it is about their broadband and wireless access.  Ask any cable home that subscribes to the triple play of cable, data, and phone, and ask them which service is most valuable to them, the vast majority will point to their data or broadband connection.  The cable can go out and the TV can't get your favorite show; there will be grumbling till it is fixed.  But lose your broadband or wireless connection, and you can probably hear the yelling and screaming coming from the home.  Broadband is the most important product for the home.

The challenge as it faces government oversight is the same battle that has been around for years and years.  It is the intersection between content and distribution and whether these two businesses should have a common owner.  This discussion first came to head when movie studios had hard times getting their movies onto screens in local communities.  Studios that owned movie houses wouldn't let competing studios distribute their movies.  It became a legal antitrust battle that resulted in studios divesting themselves of theaters.

Today we have distribution companies also owning content.  Net neutrality laws tried to prevent distribution companies from showing favoritism to their content while slowing down the streaming of others.  It seems that antitrust permeates today new world of content and distribution.  "The two are now intertwined, so from a regulatory perspective the fight will now be about who holds the power in terms of relationships with consumers and in terms of their relationships with content companies." The author asks great questions to get to the heart of the battle and how to best serve consumer interests.  How much or little regulation we need is a political battle.  Some argue that a free economy and encouraging technological innovation will lead to solutions; others, that regulation is needed to protect its constituents.

The TV model has changed to a broadband one and content is being delivered to fill the demand.  How its distribution is enable, slowed down, or even denied, is what raises question for both sides of the problem.

Apple: Profit Taking Or Future Profit

The faster the ascent, the harder they fall; so seems to be the case recently with Apple and its stock price.  With its earnings call looming this evening, the stock price has dropped quickly.  Can Apple keep its momentum, how many more iPhones can they sell, and what is next in the pipeline? We should get some of those answers soon enough.   But unlike the internet bubble, Apple manufactures actual products, sells digital content and has a world to conquer.  One quarter may be slow...

But, the future for Apple remains bright.  I believe in the market predictors that see Apple's price rising to $800 or higher.  It is not just one product but the whole package they offer that causes customers to start with one Apple product and end up buying more.  Happy with your iPhone, buy an iPad.  Love your iPad, buy a Mac to replace your PC.  Love your Mac, buy an Apple TV.  And with multiple devices in the home, let the iCloud and purchases from your iTunes account bring content to each device.

So bring on the financials. At the end of the year when the next gen iPhone and other products are announced, Apple will once again be the technical and media darling of Wall Street.
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Post announcement - Another record quarter and Apple again delivers.  Looks like after close market has stock bouncing back.

Netflix Not Growing Fast Enough For Some

All companies seem to suffer from the same problem, the classic bell curve.  In its youth, the growth curve is steep; in its maturity, the growth slows and then declines.  For those companies that can spot the next new product or service, new growth emerges as company strategies shift.  Apple has found new growth with the introduction of new and improved product lines; Netflix has attempted to grow with its move from DVD to streaming business.  But for these and other companies, the question that shareholders and the stock market always ask is what will you do for me next?

In the world of media, Netflix's streaming business has grown to a size comparable to Comcast's cable subscription business.  At almost 25 million customers paying $9 or more a month, Netflix is not constrained by franchise or continent.  "The company is racing to add viewers to confront competition from Comcast Corp. (CMCSA)’s StreamPix and Verizon Communication Inc. (VZ)’s online venture with Coinstar Inc. (CSTR)’s Redbox. While Netflix may post a second-quarter profit, investors are focused on subscriber additions."  And there it is, that same question, what are you going to do next, where are you getting more customers.

While I don't own a position in Netflix, I do see that they have an advantage to others; they can operate internationally.  With content rights, they can go everywhere.  Streaming also enables a second stream of advertising revenue.  And a potential to push into e-commerce and other revenue programs.  Eventually subscriber growth has to stall, it is inevitable; the challenge is finding other revenue models and other businesses that start new growth trends.

Is NimbleTV The Next Generation Slingbox For TV Everywhere

There's a new service being talked about that could bring true TV Everywhere to the consumer, across any device, and without a set top box.  The service, NimbleTV, says on its website that they work with both content providers and content producers to accomplish that task.  To me, that means that the cost of the service is an additional fee to take your cable, satellite, or telco line-up and access it from the cloud.

In today's New York Times, NimbleTV is the next generation of Slingbox, as labeled by its former executive, Jason Hirschhorn.  "NimbleTV says it has the same functionality as a Slingbox and DVR, but without the actual boxes". But will the content distributors and producers accept this use of their product without some incremental payoff.  And like anything, those costs will only increase the total costs for content to the consumer.

Consumers do want TV Everywhere; they want the flexibility, the variety, and the access, so that content follows them and not the other way around.  But what they don't want is the cost.  Consumers are seeking ways to lower their bills, not raise them.  It is why consumers are flocking to You Tube, Netflix, and Hulu as lower cost alternatives that also give them mobility.  For those currently subscribing to cable, they want the added value of TV Everywhere, but not the added costs.  For them, their cable bill needs more value attached to it to accept the high costs of their cable bills.  Higher rates will only cause further cord cutting to these OTT alternatives.

Can NimbleTV find success?  If embraced by cable operators and networks, yes; but as they have yet to embrace Slingbox, I doubt they will find this next player a friend either.

Cablevision Brings Linear TV To The iPad And More

Untethered, but still required to be inside the home, Cablevision subscribers can now watch their linear TV without a set top box or big screen TV.  With an iPad, iPod, iPhone, laptop, or PC, the TV experience can now be watched in any room in the house.  Multichannel states "To use the software, a customer must have a subscription to iO TV and a Cablevision-supplied modem. (If a customer is not an Optimum Online customer, Cablevision will provide a specialized modem that allows access to the streaming TV apps but not the Internet.)"

The limitation is obvious, access is limited to the home.  For those that don't want to string a cable line to every room in the house, this feature brings a new benefit to the subscriber.  For others, it may not be enough.  For those that want access away from the home, "Dish Network provides similar functionality through its Slingbox-enabled products."

So far the Cablevision App has been downloaded more than 1 million times, indicative of a successful first step in bringing TV Everywhere to the customer.

CW Network Leading Push Away From Traditional TV

Terrific WSJ read today about how the CW Network is risking viewership on traditional TV to embrace new media.  With content clearly aimed to a younger, technology loving audience, the CW has recognized that its future growth rests with new media.  Like others before them, the CW must risk the loss of viewers in one platform for hopefully a bigger gain and more revenue in another. It is a risk Netflix also has been dealing with as it too has moved from a mail order DVD business to a streaming model.   Knowing that their audience is embracing mobile and web platforms and dropping their reliance on a cable subscription, CW is betting heavily on the strategy of getting its content quickly onto these other platforms.

While ratings on TV have dropped since 2010, views on Hulu, Netflix, and other apps have grown.  And it appears that revenue from these "deals has helped partially offset losses that in recent years had topped $100 million a year".  Embracing new media at the expense of the old may have short term problems; still, recognizing  that the consumer  has moved to these other platforms and that they need to be accessible, is in the long run a very smart move.  Like everything else, the question that looms is timing.

Keeping one foot in the old platform while stepping forward in the new comes with many dangers.  Old technology does not want to compete with the new and seeing content available in both platforms is not well received.  Cable operators of the CW will fight back to protect their "exclusivity" of content from online.  How much is shared and how recent is the content that is on TV before it hits online will result in plenty of fights when license agreements come up for renewal.  With the CW owned by both CBS and Time Warner, a larger fight could be looming.