Can Sony get 50% market share for Blu-ray this Year

As the world has become digital, dvd and cd sales have declined. That HD DVD were fighting for dominance, and how quickly Blu Ray eliminated the competition, only demonstrates that the dvd, in any form, is a dying animal. Like the VHS player before it, technology is quickly changing how we watch content.

I do not see Blu Ray, as a stand alone box, getting dominant. I think the only way this format gets into the home is to be combined with the game console approach through Playstation. And despite getting into the home, most users will be less likely to purchase discs and more likely to either rent through Netflix or get an HD show through broadband.

Its not the cost that makes the likely of Sony Blu Ray being dominant, its that the technology has changed so rapidly that the dvd, whether in hi def or not, is no longer the current standard for watching content.

I see more potential with Tivo downloading streams of HD content from Amazon. And I wouldn't be surprised when Playstation 3 enables downloading of HD to its box as well. There might exist opportunity to get an incremental purchase by allowing the content to be copied to disc, flashcard, ipod, etc.

The DVR has Changed our Lives

I still remember when I got my first VCR. It allowed me the freedom to go out on a Saturday night without missing SNL. It wasn't the easiest to configure. and many chose to not even set their clock and simply use the device to watch movies. But for me, it cut the chain to linear tv watching and allowed me to not miss favorite tv shows. It freed me from having to choose.

When Tivo came into the house, it not only made it easier to record multiple shows, but even easier to locate, watch, and fast forward through commercials. No longer did I have to locate the show I wanted to watch on a tape, or keep track of multiple tapes that were constantly being re-recorded over. Tivo even recommended shows for me to watch. Heaven; even more freedom.

The DVR exists in my house as well and is used primarily for kid's programming. It's advantage for us is that it records digital programming, while my Tivo is on a set without a cable box. My kids have grown up on DVRs and on demand. They understand fast forwarding and tv programs when they want. Waiting for a show to start is foreign to them.

Does it matter that our Tivo is not yet online and connected to Amazon or Netflix. Not really. The combination of on demand and DVR provides enough choices for us so far. Where I see the challenge is when I want to watch the show on my TV but have the ability to copy the show to another device to take on the road, either for the cars dvd player or pc or ipod. If the DVR box could simplify the mobility piece, I'd be even happier.

Did Mobile Communications Mean Taxis?

If you live in NY, you've noticed that taxis now offer credit card option for payment. Unfortunately it comes with a horrible annoyance, television advertising in the back seat. And while I have found my eyes drawn to the screen, I find it neither enjoyable or welcoming. I am being force fed advertising and not being compensated for it. And while I tend to tune it out, I have et to turn it off. Perhaps that is the one true option.

Nickelodeon Expands Virtual Worlds - Ad Support & Subscription

Nickelodeon seems to understand their demo and the power of multi-platform content. On TV, they have built a brand that reaches across all ages; both adults and their children can sit in front of their TV and enjoy the same shows. And they have created character driven shows that extend online; iCarly being the perfect blend of online and linear to the you tube generation.

They continue to lock in their audience by extending their reach into online gaming and virtual worlds. As kids have become so adept at using the computer, they will have no issue moving back and forth among these offerings. Nickelodeon will in fact lock in this demographic.

The challenge is that this audience is at an age where they are naive to the business model. When a kid watches a commercial, they immediately desire to have the product. As parents, we must use our best tact to listen to that need and to redirect to other subjects. Advertising to this demo must be managed successfully. Reaching this audience is great, but the parents need to be reached as well. Paid subscription can offer to the parent safety that the child won't see or be influenced by advertising. The free to play model, while ad supported, needs to walk a fine line as to the commercial message being sent and the action being asked of the child. Perhaps, systems can be put into place where the child can click to show interest in the ad and the ad message will be sent to a parent's e-mail address. The bottom line, they must proceed cautiously.

Kids are the next generation of online users; Nickelodeon has a variety of content offerings to keep this audience from age 3 through 16 and beyond! From Dora to Zoey 101, from Wonderpets to Spongebob to Avatar; if they show restraint and common sense in their advertising model, they will keep the parents, too.

NBC's Anti-TiVo Strategy: Sell The Show

Branded entertainment is not new; it certainly may prove the adage, what is old is new again. I do predict that the typical :30 commercial will one day go the way of the dinosaur. Sponsorship programming will allow brands to break through clutter and is virtually DVR proof. And as television becomes more interactive, viewers/users that want to know more can click a button to either flag the ad for future viewing, move to another device for download, or simply send an email to remind you to go to the corresponding website.

The challenge is that only large advertisers can afford to sponsor shows and smaller advertisers may find that broadcast is no longer the ideal medium to introduce or sell their product or service. But the death of the :30 linear commercial means that new avenues to advertise can emerge. And alternative choices have already popped up: VOD advertising, web advertising, overlays, and other creative new media options.

The New Rules of Media

Great article that looks at the changing print media with some great words of wisdom. The highlights:

There is a move away from traditional media and toward online media. Newspapers ended 2007 with 8.4% less circulation daily and 11.4% less Sunday than in 2001. Plus, print newspaper ad revenues experienced their worst drop in more than 50 years, according to the Newspaper Association of America.

Meanwhile, online news consumption is up. In 2000, 60% of people said they had got news online ever; 22% said they did it “yesterday” — a gauge for regular readers. In late 2007, the number who got online news ever was up to 71% and 37% said they were online for news “yesterday.

The New Rules of Media
1. The Audience Knows More Than the Journalist
2. People Are in Conrol of Their Media Experience
3. Anyone Can Be a Media Creator or Remixer
4. Traditional Media Must Evolve or Die
5. Despite Censorship, The Story Will Get Out
6. Amateur and Professional Journalists Should Work Together
7. Journalists Need to Be Multi-Platform

Read the full article here.

Hulu or Hula: Either Way, Strong Start, Quick Drop

From Silicon Alley, "Traffic to Hulu shot up the week of its public debut on March 12, but dropped off during the following week, according to Hitwise. That's not too surprising given curiosity around the launch. But it is a sign that Hulu's growth curve is going to be bumpy. The week after its debut, Hitwise ranked Hulu as the 13th video site in terms of market share. (No. 1: YouTube, of course). But in its second week, Hulu dropped down to 18th place, one spot behind AOL's Truveo, and one ahead of LiveLeak."

Magazines Join Digital-Ad Wave

Social networking, e-commerce, online promotion, interactive marketing - print magazines are indeed preparing for the future, as this article talks about the work that magazine publishers like Conde Nast and Hearst are doing to maintain their relevence. The deep pockets of these companies enables them to purchase new media companies to incorporate into their business strategy.

Most interestingly was the two different approaches these magazine publishers were utilizing to expand their reach. I was intrigued to read the campaign Conde Nast has created with Dillard to showcase hot trends in merchandise, voted on by web viewers, that would be highlighted and available for purchase at their store. "This takes publishers further into the realm of marketing services. Instead of simply selling marketers ad space, they're rolling up their sleeves and designing the promotions as well." What I didn't see was how it incorporated back to the magazine's content.

Hearst has taken a different tack by acquiring Kaboodle, an e-commerce site, to enhance their own web page value. While this relationship is not helpful for big box retailers like Dillard, it strategically may make more sense. The shift in ad dollars may move away from brick and mortar businesses to products and services. And the Hearst web sites can be both editorial and a link to social networking and shopping. The companies purchasing ad space may find more value as they can more closely track advertising to purchase online. At the very least, through social networking links, to learn what customers think of their product.

For these magazine publishers to remain profitable in the digital age, the magazine's content must adapt to mobility, social networking, and online purchase behavior. Their reader/user must be successfully transitioned from print to digital usage while maintaining the value of the subscription as the predominant source for editorial content. Once that connection is made, consumers will value the new relationships (products & services) offered to try, rate and potentially buy.

Internet Newspapers

As Green is the new buzzword and digital is replacing print, it is not unusual to hear news that newspaper print advertising continues to decline. From Bloomberg, "U.S. newspapers suffered their worst drop in print advertising sales since industry record- keeping began 57 years ago, hammered by the housing-market slump and competition from the Internet." But the death of print, seems to be not the end of newspapers, but simply the end of one delivery method for another.

The web continues to bring us the news at a much faster rate. And aggregate sites, like the Huffington Post, provides us a blend of fact and opinion from recognizable names. Web versions of print, like the New York Times and Wall Street Journal are still considered to offer expert news sources, unmatched by others. But like email vs snail mail, we want our news delivered lightning fast and not simply once a day.

The newspaper industry has gone through this type of change before. Years ago, the afternoon edition was considered the ultimate way to stay informed of the activities from earlier in the day. Readership changed as the morning edition provided similar information through faster printing mechanisms, so that late news was included in early editions. The afternoon paper has gone away.

And so, the combination of factors: technology, green environmental issues, lifestyle changes, and others may lead to the death of the print edition. And while smaller batches may be printed, more and more people will purchase digital subscriptions or agree to see ads in exchange for downloading the news. Which sites become more popular to view or subscribe will ultimately depend on marketing activity: demonstrating brand value, building author/writer expertise, and viral buzz.

And what will the device be to view these sites from. Well... mobility and size rank up there; download speed is key and security/privacy of the subscription matters. Will Kindle or iPhone or Blackberry or laptop or someother technological innovation be it? The landscape keeps changing. But if I were print newspaper, I'd be looking ahead toward this transition and start to offer a digital stream. And if I am a bookseller, I'd get on this quickly too. Borders is up for sale, Barnes & Noble is looking over their shoulder, and Amazon is already there.