LG's Netflix Box - Will Consumers Connect

How will consumers watch movies? Will they schedule their viewing according to their TV guide, waiting for its 9pm start? Will they prefer the cable on-demand model and navigate through various search screens to find the title they desire? Will they reach for their HD dvd that they purchased from Walmart or Target and watch on their TV or portable player? Will they purchase and download from Netflix or Amazon or Sony, to watch a movie? Purchase or rent, cable or Netflix, so many choices.

Netflix has decided to team with LG and offer a player that provides dual capabilities, Blu-ray HD dvd player and Netflix download. "New details on LG's movie-streaming tie-up with Netflix, courtesy the Wall Street Journal: In September, LG will start shipping a Blu-ray player that also supports Netflix Internet movie streams, for 'well under $500.' More good news: Buyers won't just be locked in to Netflix's (NFLX) limited streaming content -- the device will also be able to access 'other forms of programming from other sources.'" Obviously, the more flexibility, the better the value proposition for the consumer. And even more importantly, the easier it is to connect and play, the better it is for the average consumer to hook up and enjoy.

Should consumers run to replace their standard dvd player with this device? And should cable operators be worried that this device will take revenue away from their on demand model. Operators need to improve the navigation screens for on demand, as well as improving its speed and eliminating any latency issues. They need to add more titles to their library of content and enable internet content to play through the cable box. I believe it is time for all cable operators to partner with Tivo. They have a grasp on what the navigation should look like. By creating the ultimate viewing experience, customers will have no need to reach for the LG Netflix box. If they don't, this device may just be a winner.

Fifth of TV viewers watching online: survey

Why are people watching online. "It showed that 50 percent of people viewing TV on the Web are watching programs as they become available and "appear to be beginning to use the computer as a substitute for the television set," Integrated Media Measurement Inc. (IMMI), which conducted the poll, said. The other half are using the Internet to watch programs they have missed, or to re-watch segments or episodes they have already seen, IMMI, a company which links media exposure to consumer action, added." I say they are watching on the internet because these same shows are not being offered via on demand on their TV set.

The web provides much more variety than most cable operators offer. If able to watch these programs on a bigger screen, I expect that more would choose the latter. I also suspect that where consumers watch also matters. These users may not have a TV set in their office, but do have a internet connected pc for watching this content. This is a relatively new phenomenon and office productivity most likely suffers as users multiplex between watching their shows and doing their work. As companies catch on, this availability may be blocked.

The TV continues to be the primary screen to watch long form content. Content available on the web needs to also be available through on demand. Navigation needs to improve on the TV to search and select from this much larger variety of product. We have become an on demand consumer and have become less likely to wait for our shows to appear. We want it all and we want it now. Internet viewing reflects this growing appetite. On demand viewing needs to duplicate this ever growing buffet of choice.

Facebook Pulls Plug On Scrabulous

I'm sad; my favorite application on Facebook has been pulled. And while I am not a good player, I do enjoy the interaction with my "friends". I was in the middle of a few games and I expect to never finish them.

Hasbro has the right to their intellectual property and Scrabulous was absolutely a ripoff of Scrabble. But Hasbro needs to give Scrabulous their kudos for capturing new media interest and taking Scrabble to the next generation. It raised their brand and made Scrabble popular again.

"Earlier this year we heard the Agarwall brothers had been offered a substantial check from Hasbro and other companies with a claim to the Scrabble brand (there are several), but that they were holding out for more. We still think that in the end, they'll walk away with something, since they've got a wildly popular app on their hands. But the takedown certainly removes a whole lot of leverage, and makes it possible that they'll end up with zilch."

I hope they come to terms and I get my online game back again. I hate to lose, but I hate worse not playing.

The End of Cassette Tapes: I Didn't Realize They Were Still Here

Sorry to say, I can't remember the last time I used a cassette tape. Of course, the same holds true for VHS tapes too. Their replacements, the cd and the dvd, marked the end of their value. And while I still have cassettes and VHS tapes in the house, most are in boxes somewhere in the attic. The funny thing is I haven't the heart to completely rid myself of them. In my youth, I copied songs, radio stations and movies onto them. I probably have an old Dr. Demento tape from too many years ago.

As a kid, I stood by my cassette player, starting and pausing to capture songs off the radio. I created mixed tapes from my albums and played them at parties. As a teenager, I loved old time radio programs, and collected numerous cassettes of Jack Benny, Burns and Allen, and others. Today, everything is copied and burned. Need a mix, burn to cd rom. And soon, no burning, simply copying to a flash card device.

But new technology has made these tapes more about memories than function. And as the LP begat the tape, and the tape begat the cd, so too will the ipod and mp3 completely replace them. "Such was the case for the eight-track format as well, which was popular in the late 1960s and ’70s. It died relatively quickly with the advent of cassettes because eight-tracks were not widely used for personal recording or mix tape". Electronic download to the device of choice is the next generation and "books on tape" are simply a memory. Audible has been pushing the digital version for years.

Will Sirius/XM Merger Enable Direct TV and Dish to Merge?

So is what is good for the goose also good for the gander? Now that the FCC has approved the Sirius XM merger, will that create a precedent to allow Direct TV to merge with Dish? In the case of satellite radio, their economic survival seemed threatened when faced with the pressures of competing against a large marketplace, from broadcast radio stations, iPods, and now internet radio; competition, it could be argued, remains very much in the marketplace. Merging allowed them to remain competitive.

For satellite cable today, a merger of Dish and Direct TV also has economic consequences. But merging of cable operations is not foreign to the FCC. As cable companies like Time Warner and Comcast have grown in size, it is at the expense of the small and mid size operators. The FCC has continually approved those cable acquisitions. As a result both Time Warner and Comcast cover a majority of the country's cable footprint.

New competition, from the telcos, Verizon and AT&T, has also emerged, to have added a new level of competition in the marketplace. And it appears that this competitive threat has had more impact on cable operators today. Where satellite has pushed their superiority in HD, the telcos are coming in with a message of more variety, faster speeds, and better service.

Satellite has had a disadvantage, operating one way plants while cable and telco can employ two way technology. Direct has come up with their version of VOD to offer a two way, on demand experience. Voom tried to join the hunt and compete as a third satellite provider, pushing original HD channels, but ended up selling its satellite to Dish, instead. For customers that are not easily reached by cable lines, satellite may be their only choice. Without competition, the customer may be hurt. Unless it is proven that in each case, telco or cable can reach that same customer with a competitive product. Else, the loss of a satellite provider would create a detriment.

Lastly, one could argue that given the market, a very limited competitive market already exists. The consumer, looking for TV, can choose only one telco that serves their market, or one cable operator that serves their market, or two satellite providers. But like radio, the other choice is free TV. While not as many choices, free TV does provide an alternative to pay TV, It may not be as many choices, but you get what you pay for. Should Direct TV and Dish be allowed to merge? I say yes. The real fight is between technologies, not within them; cable vs telco vs satellite vs free TV. And as technological changes emerge, internet TV, obtained wirelessly may become even more mainstream as another competitive choice. Let the market rule.

CBS Radio Launches New Web Video Push

What do you call a radio station that shows video? A TV station! No longer satisfied to be an audio only platform, the light bulb has gone off to show video too. This is not a new concept; Howard Stern and Don Imus had been offering a video feed of their radio programs for many years. If you feel it is necessary to watch your talk show host as he or she pontificates is up to you.

"The new platform, powered by WorldNow, gives CBS 140 radio stations the ability to create personalized branded video players to feature station content, such as music videos, artist interviews, live concert performances, breaking news and original programming, and allows stations to syndicate content or embed clips to be shared via social networking."

For most of us, the radio allowed us to multi-task; to listen in the background as we engaged in other projects. For some, it may prove appealing to gain a video perspective; for others, it may prove not relevant. But radio needs to think multi-platform and multi-screen and this approach gives their content added value to advertisers if it engages more users. And while radio has been linear in nature, the next evolution may even become on-demand, allowing users to choose the music, interviews, and other bits, by accessing online what they want when they want it.

Ultimately, the content they create with both an audio and video feed has to be more interesting to the user. Like satellite radio, terrestrial radio faces increased competition and this approach may prove to be a winner. "The video platform debuted Wednesday on four of the company's New York stations: WWFS-FM (www.fresh1027.com); WCBS-AM (www.wcbs880.com); WXRK-FM (www.923krock.com); and WFAN-AM (www.wfan.com)."

FCC member votes against XM-Sirius deal

"The Wall Street Journal reported in its online edition Tuesday. Among the three votes cast in the FCC's review so far, Copps, a vocal opponent of increased media consolidation, is the first to vote against the deal, according to the newspaper."

Why is this being held up. Satellite radio will not be a monopoly as long as free radio exists. Add to that the rise of internet radio, iPods and other devices, and this merger should have been a non-issue. This vote against is really just a way to watch a company fail. The Department of Justice approved this deal a long, long time ago; this delay is simply ridiculous. Add to this the ruling that through out the CBS fine the FCC imposed for the Janet Jackson Super Bowl incident and it demonstrates that the FCC has lost control.

Tivo Says 'Charge' With Amazon

Tivo and Amazon are taking their partnership to the next level, enabling online users to instantly purchase from their TV set. It is the next step for interactive behavior and should be quickly embraced. It appeals to advertisers as it can move people from interest to purchase with simply the push of a button.

"TiVo has already been in business with Amazon since last year: It offers on-demand TV and movies to TiVo users from Amazon's Unbox store. Ultimately, TiVo says the "buy" feature will be available on TiVo-powered set-top boxes from cable partners like Comcast, as well as TiVo's own standalone DVRs."

And while Tivo's market share is still small, this added feature and benefit may encourage cable operators to make deals with Tivo to get a piece of the action. "Possible customers for its interactive ad technology include the cable and satellite companies and their consortiums, like Project Canoe, a joint effort by six cable operators to create a technology platform to sell customized and interactive ads."

Still, Tivo needs to do a better job to demonstrate why it is better than a cable dvr. To me, Tivo is the Mercedes of video recording, while the cable dvr is the VW. But if you have never experienced a Tivo, you may think the cable dvr is good enough. The challenge to Tivo is to get the consumer to experience the difference and push its appeal, like Apple so successfully has done with its iPhone and iPod.

Tivo is much more user-friendly than the cable dvr, designed to work as a user would expect a recording device to perform. It enables access across the video in 15 minute bites, allowing easier navigation inside the show. It records recommendations and has an easier search feature. And I find it doesn't have the latency issues that the dvr frequently exhibits. Gaining a bigger footprint across additional cable companies should be the win that takes Tivo to the next level; working with Project Canoe may be the impetus to make the other cable operators want to join the Tivo bandwagon.

Pandora's Success With iPhone Bodes Well for Internet Radio

The Sirius-XM merger should have been approved a year ago. The FCC's concern of monopoly is a non issue with technological change, primarily the rise of internet radio. The success of iPhone and applications from Pandora indicate that internet radio represents a clear alternative to subscription radio.

"Internet radio upstart Pandora has streamed 3.3 million songs to iPhone users since the launch of its new mobile application, making it the third most popular such application for the red hot device" The success of the next generation of iPhone is bringing more users to the app. As autos are wired for connectivity to their wireless phones, it will act similarly as a conduit to internet radio. So where does that leave Sirius; it's success remains dependent on exclusive content like Howard Stern, out of market sports, and others. The fight for great content will either make Sirius a winner or a trivia game answer in 5 years.

As for Pandora and the iPhone, internet radio seems to be a highly regarded feature that brings more value to the mobile device. And anything that brings the consumer is bound to bring new advertising opportunities as well. "This level of intense engagement is likely to excite the ad community, which has been patiently waiting for more mass buying options in mobile media."

SAG Formally Rejects AMPTP Contract Offer

Despite the "other" actor's union, AFTRA, agreeing to terms with producers, and the writers strike bringing Hollywood to a standstill earlier this year, SAG continues to believe that they deserve a better deal. True the landscape is changing in digital media, but that comment is trite, change is constant. Digital streaming remains a brand new medium and while companies are investing tons of money in it, no one is making tons of money yet. As we speak, companies are devising new ad monetization software to interface between the content stream and the user to provide relevant messages to segmented audiences. Testing continues on ad overlays, pre-rolls, ads popping in during dvr fast forwards, and other tricks to monetize the new medium.

And while dollar figures are being thrown around, the business is still very young and changing rapidly. SAG's approach should be to watch and learn; sign a short one year term deal so as to not be tied into a long term agreement that may be irrelevant in 2 years. What they should not do is even mention the word "strike" Hollywood learned that it cost them much more than they earned. The Emmy awards became all about cable as broadcast was burned by the strike; less content, less awards. There are only so many reality awards to go around.

So where are they now? It remains to be seen what happens next. I suppose it will remain business as usual in Hollywood. This fight has gone on too long already. Don't like the deal that AFTRA and the Writers Guild have agreed to, then make the term shorter and get back to work.

Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along Blog is Amazing

I've become a fan of Dr. Horrible's Sing-Along blog. Here is the preview.


The first clips have just come up and are available on the Dr. Horrible site. It is incredibly well done, campy and a lot of run. Enjoy!

You Tube Partners with Tivo

Digital downloads on your TV set is the next horizon. Sony continues to make news with Playstation 3 and directly throuh certain Bravia TV sets. Amazon is also pushing its Unbox service to purchase and download content. Tivo currently has a relationship with Amazon. Now Tivo has moved forward with You Tube to offer streaming of its content on TV. Is a Hulu - Tivo deal in their future? Will You Tube users move over from pc to TV to watch; it all depends on breadth of content, ease of navigation, and download speed.

You Tube currently represents the dominate platform choice by users to watch streaming content. Tivo provides another screen, and perhaps size of the TV set will matter. Unfortunately, not every Tivo user will have access to You Tube content. "Not in big numbers anytime soon, though, because while TiVo has 3.8 million subscribers, only about a fifth of them have the necessary equipment -- a TiVo Series 3 or TiVo HD -- for grabbing YouTube content and displaying it on TV screens."

Still, it is another bullet that separates Tivo from others in connecting the web to TV. Tivo recognizes the value of connecting web to TV and is building the platform that is attractive to its users. As they add more content to the box, they become more valuable. They are a force to reckon with.

Sony Offers Video-Downloading

Expect a dogfight in the digital download arena with many boxes capable of attaching to the TV set and the internet, ingesting long and short form content, free and transactional. From the cable box currently connected to your TV set to Tivo, from Playstation 3 offering Sony movies to Roku offering access to your online Netflix subscription. And of course their is Microsoft who has Xbox and Apple with Apple TV to push. And lastly Slingbox may want to own a piece.

"Sony said its service will let users rent or buy movies and rent television shows produced by major studios and production companies -- including Paramount Pictures, Warner Bros. and Sony Pictures -- and watch them on TV sets through its PlayStation Network in the U.S."

Who will survive,who will get gobbled up. Again, content is king and whoever controls it has greater control over which box will survive. That may give Sony an advantage with games and movies. Are you watching this, Nintendo; Wii may need to find a partner, too. Partnerships will matter and as Tivo further integrates into the Comcast cable box, synergies will grow to enhance its appeal and value. Apple has always built customer friendly devices and have passionate loyal customers that will stand in line to get their products. And Microsoft has the resources to maintain a seat at the table.

Digital downloading will create more opportunities for competition and that may spell good news for the customer. And may offer even more advertising options to support revenue growth.

ComScore: Americans Watched 12 Billion Videos In May

Online video usage is gaining speed, growing by 45% from a year earlier and by 10% from last month. You Tube continues to be the dominate site, with a 35% share, although that leadership position appears to be slowly eroding as other sites gain more awareness and usage. In fact, their percentage dropped from 37.9% in April. Surprisingly My Space videos, as measured through Fox Interactive Media, is second, and Hulu (or as some still like to call it Hula) is in 10th place.

And while there is still a huge jump between You Tube and others, Google and You Tube must be feeling the heat as original content on sites like AOL, ABC, and Hulu, appears to have more interest and more likelihood for monetization. Those sites that can create more synergies across other media and help drive traffic to their sites will benefit more in the long run.

And while this is a snapshot for the month, the indication is that online viewing will continue to grow at a fast rate and You Tube will find its share of the pie reducing as these other sites continue to push their content. In June, Disney began showing their full length movies online; that should lead to a bump in their score. Hulu continues to put more content on their site as well and May is the first month that they were out of beta.

I'd love to know more about these online users; are they watching at the office or at home, is most viewing in the daytime or evening, do they prefer snacking or full episodes. How users are using this online content will continue to shape how usage and site preference grows.

SAG stays in stall mode

Sometimes its hard to admit defeat. SAG has no leverage to construct a better deal now that AFTRA and the writers have come to terms on new media participation. Given also that the economy is in a state of flux and the new media market still remains undefined, a short term deal is reasonable. As they fight over digital downloads, mobile usage is another screen with some potential. But as one area grows, another declines. The revenue coming from advertising is not an unlimited bucket of money. It flows to different media, from one screen to another. Ultimately, compensation should be measured regardless of where it is seen, but as a percentage of total business over a period of time.

Kindle is Doing Pretty Well

It seems Kindle is doing pretty well, with celebrities talking it up gratis. Martha Stewart and others continue to mention that they are Kindle users. Increased production, price cuts to appeal to abroader audience, should help drive revenues and increase brand presence. As consumrs continue to embrace the concept of e-books, as they have books on tape, Kindle may be the ultimate device to provide both a video and audio presence for one low price. "The retailer sold 25,000 to 50,000 devices during the first three months of 2008, according to an estimate by Mitchell. Amazon doesn't disclose Kindle figures."

Need a reason to switch from hard copy to e-copy, "The paper edition of ``Sail,'' by James Patterson and Howard Roughan, ranked second on the New York Times bestseller list, sells for $16.79 on Amazon.com while the Kindle version costs $9.99. Customers don't pay extra for download time. Users can also transfer text documents and MP3 music files from their computers, according to Amazon's Web site." Add enough extras, like reading blogs and free books on the web, and the voracious reader will see savings with their Kindle very quickly.

In Deepening Ad Decline, Sales Fall 8% at Magazines

Advertising money seems to move from one pocket to another, leaving magazines for other vehicles. And as digital distribution continues to provide more opportunities to segment the market and reach particular demos, it will become increasingly more difficult to get the biggest slice of the pie. it seems the best opportunities will be with thoise content creators who can make and distribute content acoss multiple platforms and subsequently can charge for this wide access. Be everywhere, do everything: print, video, mobil, VOD, etc.

Video on the web to quadruple over next few years

Content remains king and distribution opportunities grow as more consumers discover the web for video. Add to that the convergence of web to TV being pursued by Apple, Netflix, and others, and it is easy to understand why broadband usage is growing rapidly.

It challenges the very ecosystem that has been proving profitable to cable companies and traditional cable programmers, getting a license fee to carry content on a "channel lineup" and charging consumers for packages of channels on a monthly basis. As content creators bypass these old channels for a direct path to the consumer via the internet, it taxes the broadband pipeline and treats the pipe as a commodity rather than a unique relationship. With that in mind, cable companies are testing usage charges for access as opposed to single monthly fees. It kinda reminds you of the old days when your telephone bill was based on the number and length of each call; it sure feels like a step backwards from unlimited usage.

Wallstrip has some timely comments about this bandwidth charge:



Charging for bandwidth usage will impede growth not create revenue opportunities. This approach is not the answer. Still the rise of broadband will enable more IP applications to associate with the content. That unique added value is what can ultimately improve this relationship and provide new revenue streams to replace the old ones. "For the network operator, the ability to bundle a video package with movie access to their other broadband offerings for a specific fee could be a sticky element to keep customers coming back. Then, the broadcaster and video maker can boast more eyeballs viewing their content."

Once this interactive ecosystem is fully realized, the companies that can provide access and support to interact across multiple devices, seamlessly and intuitively, will gain market share. These devices include gaming, mobile, computer, tv, and others that can utilize and interact with these digital streams of content.

AFTRA Approves Three-Year AMPTP Pact

With a 62% approval vote, AFTRA has ratified their agreement with the producers and put the squeeze on their union counterpart. SAG was waiting and hoping that this deal would be rejected so that they would have more leverage going into their negotiation. But this vote severely weakens SAG's position and further indicates that actors do not want to strike.

"In a prepared statement, the AMPTP said, 'We appreciate today's vote of confidence by actors in the agreement we negotiated with AFTRA, and hope that it demonstrates to SAG's Hollywood leadership that there is support for the new economic relationships we have built with writers, directors and actors -- and not much support for a strike, whether de facto or real.'"

Approximately 40,000 actors are members of both unions, another indication that SAG needs to work with the current deals already agreed to by AFTRA and the writers union. The digital landscape is changing rapidly and a three year deal by AFTRA is not so long to continue to have a seat at the table as technology, content, and distribution keep developing and to reflect changing usage.

As a recent CTAM report indicates, online usage is growing rapidly, but television viewing remains king. The dvr is an important device for tv use and continues to rank highest against other content screens. As HD becomes more available and tv screens become larger, the television set should remain the key driver for video usage over the foreseeable future. SAG should accept a short term deal, study the trends and work across unions to devise an adequate revenue split. Then they should approach AMPTP to negotiate a future agreement.

SAG/AMPTP On Hold Until AFTRA Result

Will there be a deal between AFTRA and AMPTP? The vote is imminent and the results may just determine SAGs next steps. If AFTRA votes to accept the terms, SAG will be hard presses to not agree to a deal. If the vote fails, negotiations between SAG and AMPTP may get more complicated. The vote results are due tonight... "So everyone's watching and waiting for the results that could change the entire nature of these actor-employer negotiations."

Portable analog TVs may be lost in digital transition

This article caught my attention because I had asked myself a similar question. We recently lost our electricity for 24 hours after a heavy storm that knocked down trees and power lines. With candles lit and flashlights in my kids hands, I found an old portable radio that was capable of getting TV audio. And I once again felt safe and connected to the outside world and at that moment, reconnected to the NBA Finals on TV.

And it was then that I thought, what would I need to do to replace this trusty old radio, that only comes out once in a blue moon, when the digital transition occurs on February 18, 2009. Frankly, I forgot all about it till I read this article. "About 7% of households, or 8 million homes, owned hand-held TVs in 2006, according to the latest data from the Consumer Electronics Assn. With such a low figure, and more options for watching video on cellphones and laptop computers, it's no surprise there are few battery-powered digital TVs on the market, said Tim Herbert, senior director of market research for the trade association."

As mobile TV becomes more available and embraced, portable analog sets may become a thing of the past. Still, when the power goes out for extended periods of time, back up batteries and generators may become more a necessity than ever before. As we rely on these devices to do many things, they consume more and more power. Options to recharge them under adverse conditions could become a bigger business.

This digital transition creates many new opportunities, but it takes away a trusted source and in a sense creates a digital divide between the haves and the havenots. Most take cable service and will continue to get their TV; but those poorer areas and older Americans may be less able to or accustomed to change. Will they be willing to purchase new portable digital devices; will they embrace the new digital converters? As we get closer to the transition date, it will become more apparent. In fact, it may be worse than when computers changed from 1999 to 2000.

Studios still trying to manage copying

The longevity of the dvd may just depend on whether it allows its owner to copy its file from one device to another. While the concern that others will freely share titles, most consumers are more likely to see it as a benefit of ownership and prefer the simplicity of copying than searching for peer to peer transfer.

"Yet while each studio is pursuing its own second-copy strategy, as a group they haven't given up on an industry-standard approach. Yesterday, the studios in the DVD Copy Control Assn., which administers the CSS license, circulated a new proposed "managed-copy" amendment to the CSS licensing agreement, several DVD-CCA sources told Media Wonk."

The other question to ask is what the next device will be to hold audio and digital files; what will replace the cd and dvd. Will movies and music be sold on their own unique thumb drive? Will we take our iPod to the store and have the file digitally uploaded to our portable device. Will these devices limit how many copies we will be able to make? Digital rights management will remain a big issue for quite some time. And there will always be those trying to rip their own free copies.

CD sales down 11% in 2008

When is the last time you bought a cd? Besides taking up space on an already crowded shelf, most of the music I listen to is through the iPod. So I am more likely to download than purchase. At the same time, while I recently downloaded Camp Rock for my daughter, I burned the songs on a cdrom for her to play on the stereo. And once I finally upgrade the stereo to connect to the mac and play by itunes library, I'll stop burning cds altogether.

So it is not surprising to learn that my habits emulate the changes in the music business. Despite declining cd sales, download sales continue to rise at a steady pace. "Digital sales, however, continue to grow dramatically. Digital album sales are up 34% to 31.6 million units, which represent 15.5% of all album sales."

Brick and mortar stores like the once powerful Tower Records and Virgin have not adapted to change. Other stores selling physical copies of digital content, like Game Stop, should be careful with their growth plans, as games will soon be downloaded directly to devices. General merchandise stores like Target and Best Buy have already cut back shelf space in their music department, and can benefit from diversification of merchandise.

Once consumers becoming increasingly more comfortable with a digital copy of their audio video and audio content, they will no longer need to retain a physical copy in the form of a cd or dvd. That is the direction consumer purchases are taking and stores devoted to selling these copies will become part of our economic history, like HMV, Silo, Tweeter, Highland, and others that couldn't adapt to change.

Internet TV revenue could surge on VOD offerings

The battle for the viewer will likely depend on the access to and breadth of VOD content. As we become a society that requires immediacy and what we want, when we want it, companies that best handle the speed and variety of on demand, will get our business.

"VOD will account for about 13% of IPTV revenue in 2012, up from 3% last year, as telecommunications companies try to use their on-demand offerings to compete against the more established multichannel system operators, according to research firm Gartner." And the fight for content will grow as HD content becomes more commonplace and preferred. Telcos have built their plants to handle these huge streams of information; older cable systems, not yet rebuilt, may face an uphill battle as consumers, turned off by the latency and limited choice, seek alternative sources for content. And in fact Direct TV is now beginning to offer a VOD model to compete in this space, although it requires a broadband connection in addition to the satellite.

And this growth in VOD content will enable new revenue streams to grow as well. Pre roll advertising in front of free content, overlap ad messages, increased transactional business, e-commerce opportunities, etc. This surge in VOD offerings will continue to propel this model forward. "Internet-protocol TV service providers such as AT&T and Verizon could see revenue from video-on-demand jump more than tenfold in the next four years. This will come from fiber-optic TV services taking market share from cable and satellite companies, while more people watch VOD and pay-per-view titles."

VOD is growing in usage and appeal with consumers. It is where the battle is being fought among cable, telco, and satellite. As interactivity becomes more commonplace, it is the companies that best serves up and prices this content competitively that will maintain dominance.

Will Tivo Become the Link Between the Internet and TV

Successfully navigating all the online choices available and easily bringing that content to the TV screen are the challenges facing Tivo and its ability to differentiate and prosper. While the Tivo brand name is what Kleenex is to tissues, Tivo has yet to convince enough customers that it is better than a DVR. having both devices, I clearly prefer Tivo, but if you haven't driven a Mercedes, you can be satisfied with your VW.

Tom Rogers, CEO of Tivo says he has a plan to position his company "a hub for streaming video from all sources to the television set." And now that they are partnering with Comcast, this added value may be the tool that cable can use to remain the interface of choice for the consumer to access the internet on TV. In the meantime, competition will be fierce to be an alternative choice to be that navigation and interface choice. Companies like Netflix are trying to do it in the premium movie niche. Apple TV has built a box, but not a strong following.

Tivo must continue to innovate, improving the menu structure and search functions. At the moment, it is ahead of others, but competition is catching up. I believe that Tivo has a superior product, and perhaps with Comcast as a partner, it can achieve true product dominance and brand preference.

Screen Actors Guild contract expires

The question everyone in Hollywood must be asking, will there be another strike in 2008. The last strike proved that the economics needed to be changed, but the result seemed to be less work for scripted TV series, and more reality programming. So now there is less work, more anger, and what appears to be a large contingent of underemployed talent itching to strike to make it hard on everyone else.

While no strike vote has been called, the real date to watch is next week when the AFTRA vote is due. Should that union approve their deal, it will be hard for SAG to strike; but should they succeed in convincing AFTRA members to vote against their leadership, a strike vote seems destined to come. Unfortunately in today's economy, a strike would have a devastating effect. "In its statement Monday, the producers alliance warned of the damage of another walkout, saying a work stoppage would cost SAG members $2.5 million in wages every day. Other labor groups in the industry would lose $13.5 million, while the California economy would take a daily $23 million hit, it said."

An agreement needs to be made soon. Without a contract, producers have begun to delay work, fearing a stoppage in the middle of production. SO even without a strike vote, business will be hurting. Despite the July 8 AFTRA vote, SAG needs to look for a solution and not an excuse to strike; it is in no ones best interest.