Replay And Regret: Rainbow COO Warns Of DVR Dangers

The DVR is a product of our own doing. Television's desire to grab more money from advertising resulted in not only more expensive ad spots but also more advertising minutes per hour. And it is this latter element that caused someone to innovate a solution - program copy and playback later so as to fast forward through ads to watch content. As Rainbow's research has disclosed, "70% of people skip because they are tired of the same commercials playing so often; 60% suggested pods are too long; and 65% said the commercials are 'boring.'" For me personally, I would have ranked them differently with pod length the biggest issue. Once I fast forward commercials, I am hard pressed to tell you what the commercial is that I skipped or whether it is boring or creative. How could I know. I've skipped the ads because the pod length is long. TV networks made their bed and now they must deal with the DVR consequences.

If commercial breaks were :60 or less, I might be less inclined to reach for the remote. Rainbow's COO suggests that "commercials might also improve effectiveness if addressable advertising got more wind at its back." At that point more creative ads targeted to me might work; but if pod lengths remain long, I won't see those ads either, even if it is "customized" for me; I'll be fast forwarding through the break to get to my show.

Now I know I represent a particular demographic. My children enjoy the ads with their shows. They inform them of new toys and games, movies to see and shows to watch. They are naive to the marketing behind the message. They see it as credible information. I see ads as a nuisance.

Frankly, I got the DVR to time shift my shows to watch them when they were most convenient to me; ad skipping was the added incentive. Reduce the number of ads per hour and more people will watch ads. Otherwise, I'm sure we will see a greater reliance on product placement in shows and perhaps even commercial overlays. We've already gotten accustomed to seeing these bugs on the corner of our screen promote what's coming soon; why wouldn't ads be next.

TiVo Promotes Ads It Hopes You’ll Talk to, Not Zap

Tivo, the company that encouraged its subscribers to skip ads and get more TV for your hour of viewing, now wants to be a better friend to advertisers; well its own advertisers anyway. Sure keep skipping through ads, but if you use a trick feature, like pause or fast forward, you'll be encouraged to click and interact with a particular ad message. "Advertisers can choose the specific show or genre they want their pause ad to appear on — Mercedes-Benz USA used it to promote a new car during football games earlier this year. TiVo also offers ads that appear when viewers fast-forward through shows." Networks are probably not happy that their own ads are being challenged by their distributors ads.

"It is in a footrace with other companies, including Cablevision, Cox Communications and DirecTV, to offer interactive alternatives to the zapped-through television spots. The ads are called interactive because they ask the viewer to do something — enter in a new channel number, press a button on the remote — to get more information." Cable also has started a joint venture, Canoe, to assist them.

So what do the networks, both broadcast and cable, think of this capability. Will advertisers pull their ads off the networks to utilize the technological capabilities of the various distributors? Or will they have to partner with these same distributors to assure their piece of the interactive ad marketplace? And ultimately, will the viewer interrupt their show to watch an ad, even one that is positioned for them, or simply skip through it as they do now? Interactive advertising - fad or future?

The Way To Save Newspapers? Kill Some More Of Them

Newspapers will survive technological change. But as this article correctly predicts, consolidation will save the newspaper industry. We have seen this same consolidation occur across many other industries as well. The cable industry is a great example. Where once every community seemed to have its own cable system, today it is dominated by a few. The accounting industry once included "the big 8"; but now most are gone. Even the auto industry was once populated with many manufacturers; not today.

Newspapers can return a healthy profit. "Industry EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization) margins are 14% to 16%, according to a recent J.P. Morgan analysis of public newspaper companies. While that's well below the peak of 25%, newspaper companies are generally still reasonably profitable." Who survives and who doesn't will have to be left to who best manages through these tough economic times. Will the New York Times survive; I bet they will.

Amazon Launches HD Movie Rental and TV Show Sales

Have you bought a Hi Def TV lately? Big screen, awesome picture, not much to watch. Even the HD channels aren't always showing HD programming. Perhaps it even encouraged you to upgrade your DVD player to Blu-ray and bought or rented a number of movies. Cable, satellite companies and the telcos are all marketing their number of HD choices, both channels and number of shows. Still it may not be enough to satisfy that HD urge.

Well, more choice is coming! Amazon "said it will add more than 500 HD TV shows and movies to its Amazon Video On Demand service. Titles are from major networks and studios like Warner Bros. Entertainment Inc., Sony Pictures, Paramount Pictures and Showtime Networks, with new-release movie titles including 'Twilight' and 'Frost/Nixon' and TV shows such as 'The Tudors' and 'Smallville.'" They can be downloaded directly to some HDTVs or available through the Tivo Series 3 or Roku players.

I have yet to pull the trigger and buy an HD TV set. I know I want a bigger screen and am looking at both the 52" and 55" LCD sets. Or should I reconsider Plasma. I know I don't want to spend a lot of money and am looking at less than $2500. But should I buy a Samsung, Sharp or Sony or look at lesser known brands like Vizio? Or wait till more sets connect directly to the web? Too many choices, too many variables, too many new models scheduled to be released. What to do.

New York Times Co. losses worsen as ad sales plunge 27%

Yesterday, the New York Times was awarded 5 Pulitzer Prizes for their exceptional journalism and today they reported a disastrous financial picture. "The owner of The New York Times, The Boston Globe and 15 other daily newspapers said Tuesday that it lost $74.5 million, or 52 cents a share, in the opening three months of the year."

And while declining subscriptions and newspaper sales are a problem, the real hardship is felt in declining advertising revenue. They actually grew circulation revenue by increasing the price of the paper, but are not finding ways to increase advertising. And so the second quarter will not be any better. Costs continue to be trimmed, as are paper sizes but despite many concessions, the situation does not appear to be improving.

So what is next. They have already threatened to shut down one of their papers, The Boston Globe, if union concessions aren't met. But at some point, quality suffers as cost cutting gets extreme.

Perhaps it is time for the NYT and other papers to build synergies with broadcast and cable news networks; perhaps it is time for the NYT to be acquired by CNN or MSNBC; perhaps it is time for print to build more synergies across other media platforms to enhance the advertising value. Or perhaps it is too late. I hope not, I still enjoy reading my morning delivered paper and its different sections of content. But I may have to change my attitude and rely solely on the electronic edition to peruse and enjoy.

TiVo to sell instant data on what people watch, fast-forward

Tivo, the box for people who hate commercials but love TV, is selling research data on people who don't watch the ads that pay the bills. They claim that despite the fast forward button, ad messages do get through, and they certainly reach a passionate TV viewer. So which of the Tivo boxes are getting measured? Direct connects, like the one I own; Direct TV Tivo owners; What about Comcast customers with a Tivo DVR converter? "TiVo says its data will come from most of the DVRs that use its service, including ones that get it from DirecTV. It wouldn't say whether Comcast will participate."

How representative is this audience against national viewership? Todd Juenger, TiVo's audience research and measurement general manager, doesn't worry. "Juenger says TiVo owners tend to be richer, better educated 'and, unfortunately, a little more white' than the overall population, but 'it isn't a gigantic difference.'" Nielsen disagrees. "'Our ratings are based on samples that reflect the viewing behavior of all households, not just those who have DVRs,' says Nielsen spokesman Gary Holmes."

The future is DVR and VOD and live viewership. Whoever best aggregates and analyzes all this data to provide the most accurate research will win.

Actors reach tentative deal with studios

Finally after so many months of infighting, backstabbing, and political fights, SAG may have finally come to terms with the AMPTP. Per the article, SAG lost its leverage and got less than they bargained for. If they had only played it smarter, followed the lead of AFTRA , and recognized quickly from the writers strike and bad economy, that they were not in the position to demand. Well, better late than never.

Deal Brings TV Shows and Movies to YouTube

The future of online video is professional content and though You Tube is best known for user generated uploads, the money lies with advertising against branded content. Recognizing that need, You Tube has entered into partnerships with TV and movie studios, and the space that Hulu has found an important grasp. "The agreements with the studios, which include Sony, Lions Gate, MGM and others, are significant because YouTube dominates online video. Nearly two-thirds of all video views in the United States occur on YouTube, according to the measurement firm Nielsen. Last month the site had more than 90 million visitors, 10 times as many as the next biggest site, comScore said."

In addition, there is finally the recognition that broadband, like cable, requires multiple revenue streams to survive, advertising and subscription. Whether it takes the form of transactional or monthly, You Tube will likely follow the Apple iTune strategy of charging for downloads or streaming.

Despite this plan to seek more revenue sources, You Tube says it is not leaving its bread and butter, amateur videos; "In an interview, Eric E. Schmidt, Google’s chief executive, said that YouTube would continue to embrace content created by users, even if it was not easy to earn revenue from it, because that content was essential to the popularity of the site." As the leader in online video, Google and You Tube have the deep pockets and the knowledge of the marketplace; what will define their success in building synergy with other content partners. Perhaps one day we will see Google owning a broadcast/cable network.

3.6 Million Homes Still 'Completely Unready' For DTV Transition: Nielsen

June 12 is the current date for digital transition and despite the granted delay from February, 3.6 M homes are still not prepared. Coupons are going out, stores are stocked with digital converters, cable operators are broadcasting ads with offers to cheaply switch to cable to not lose TV signals. But despite all the news and offers, a number of homes will still go dark. The news from Nielsen does show homes switching over. "Nielsen said that Albuquerque-Santa Fe remains the least ready market at 9.13%, while the most prepared is Hartford-New Haven, where "everybody" is ready. Nielsen's survey numbers are based on field staffers in 35,000-plus sample homes -- all of its metered households." The NAB remains critical of the research. According to David Rehr, NAB President, these numbers are overstated.

Should there be another digital delay; I doubt it. Some people just like to wait till the last minute; hello tax filers! At some point you just got to pull the trigger and June 12 will be that date.

The most likely groups that will be hurt are the elderly and poor. Technological change is never easy and while the government coupons help, connecting the converters and resetting the antenna to find the digital signals remain issues for this group. Will cable come up with a marketing program to provide low cost, white glove service to this group; it could just be a great public relations opportunity!