Hulu Expects to Add More Content Providers

For those that don't mind watching television on their pc, content aggregation is important. Hulu, recognizing that content is king, is furiously working to add more partners, like Time Warner and Viacom, to their mix. And to increase their reach with Hulu's placement inside AOL.

More is better, not just from more suppliers, but also depth of inventory from existing content providers. Refresh is key to satisfy the unquenchable thirst of small screen viewing. For the heavy user, more is necessary to keep them returning to the Hulu site. But do you take the old content off to satisfy that user; what of the new viewer, just invited to the site, who still values the current material. How content gets refreshed and rotated affects the value for the new and old user.

And at what point should Hulu become the distribution point back to the big screen TV. Allowing it to interface throught the cable box to choose and stream VOD on the HD TV set. Will this content look good on the new HD sets? Or should Hulu make a separate version of its product for VOD consumption through the cable box. Would the consumer pay for access? Would its advertising model work to enable it to be a Free On Demand service? Ubiquitous distribution of all this content on big screen and small; to me that is what would make Hulu especially interesting but it would certainly upset the syndication apple cart.

Net neutrality, without it, broadband takes a giant step back

There once was a day, not long ago, that consumers paid their phone bills based on the length and distance for each call. Wanted to call NY to CA, wait till night to get the lower rate. Start the timer and don't talk too long. I recall a Brady Bunch episode where the dad installs a pay phone in the family room to offset the costs for all the phone usage and to teach the kids that the phone calls cost money to make. Today, we get charged one low fee per month, unlimited calls across the US and Canada.

Broadband access never asked for a per byte usage charge; rather, it asked for a low fee for unlimited access for broadband use. But as demand grows and file sizes grow expedentially, cable is concerned that it can't handle the flow of traffic. Comcast's solution was to restrict high volume downloads from sites like Bit Torrent; Time Warner's idea was to charge consumers on the usage levels of their broadband activity. Both plans may cause consumers to seek competitors willing to provide unlimited service. While higher download and upload speeds can be priced at a premium, usage pricing and restictive access would be a huge step back.

The telcos must be hoping though that the cable companies push the usage model; telcos would have the competitive edge to push that their systems do not interfere with the flow of internet traffic. Rationally, it does not seem wise for cable to push against net neutrality or usage pricing as it could widen the competitive gap between cable and telco. Unfortunately, no one ever said this was a rational business.

Can there ever be another Golden Age of Television

Assuming the writers strike ends as planned, some shows will go back into production, some will be halted till fall, and others will finally get the official cancellation notice. As producers ponder a changing economic tv production model, the choices they make will determine the shows we watch. Decisions may soon be made to commit to a season worth of shows even before a pilot is produced and tested. No extraneous production of pilots unless there is a serious commitment to air the series. Would the Seinfeld show gotten through this vetting process under this new economic model? Many felt it was too New York and wouldn't play well outside the major cities. It took 3 seasons before it became the monster hit it evolved into on NBC. Today, producers seem to lack the patience to keep a show on air.

The Golden Age of Television was filled with stars, variety shows, great dramatic series, and notable writers creating great characters and developing endearing and enduring stories. Today's shows, tend to push the boundaries of bad taste, more concerned with real life sad sacks than telling great, compelling stories. Comedies are crasser, dramatic series are simply more explicit soap operas.

I miss the shows of my youth and find it hard to find a show that the whole family can enjoy together. I miss the variety shows that showcased professional talent, not the amateur shows on today - Carol Burnett, Flip Wilson, Ed Sullivan, et al. I miss the guest-heavy series - Love Boat, Fantasy Island, Love American Style, et al. I miss the comedies - Lucy, Cosby, Cheers. I miss the dramatic series - half hour and hour - that weren't just ripped from the headlines, but told impactful and character studied stories. I miss the classic western, the medical drama (that didn't seem to alweays put a baby in danger in every episode!), the sci fi adventure that didn't make the special effects the story but let the story influence the special effects.

The writers strike is ending; the business model seems to be turned upside down. But the product can still improve. Reality programming is a bandaid, but the real health of TV is getting back to our roots of what made television great!

What SAG should learn from the Writer's Strike

In just a few months, the SAG contract expires and a strike vote could be authorized. Hopefully the experiences from the writers strike will impact those discussions and how it should proceed. The writers strike most likely cost everyone but the producers more income than they could ever possibly recoup from their agreement. In lost wages, the elimination of projects, the cuts in new productions, and the limited revenue from new media. Unlike the DGA, the writers chose this path rather than try to negotiate months ahead of the expiration of the contract. SAG should follow the path of the DGA and start now to discuss their agreement and agree that as a course of action, a strike vote is not the best course of action. The entertainment landscape has changed and a strike cannot produce a greater victory.

The real shame is as the producers place more emphasis on reducing costs than enhancing the creative quality of the medium, cheaper shows will become the norm. That means less numbers of writers per project, lesser stars attached to projects; cheaper labor, lower budgets, and more monetization push. Networks will turn to more branded entertainment, ie the Texaco Theatre, and heavier product placement in the scripts of each show to make these projects more worthwhile. Change is inevitable; the writers strike hastened it and a SAG strike could just kill it once and for all.

Tentative Deal with Writers Reached

It appears that a deal has been struck and will be voted on by the WGA this evening. If approved, the strike will be over and TV can start production again. Most likely, the evening talk shows, The Tonight Show, Late Night, Jimmy Kimmel, The Daily Show and The Colbert Report will start fresh shows on Monday. For scripted series, the delay to fresh shows are still months away. But the landscape for TV has been forever changed.

The Networks will become much more efficient in their spending on shows. Commitments will be made with tighter budgets attached. Should a show make it to pilot form, it will move quickly to series. If a show doesn't perform on network, watch it pop up on cable and vice versa. Don't be surprised to see Psych, Monk, or even Mad Men repurposed on network. A series will complete its 13 episode minimum regardless of its initial rating cause the expectation is that it will be repurposed across cable and the web, to assure it finds a profit. And vertically alligned businesses, like NBC with their hands in each of these distribution points will do especially well. They can effectively spread the risk and increase the return from each of these productions.

At the same time, reality shows are starting to show their age. Survivor's latest adventure recently scored its lowest ratings. Deal or No Deal has gotten so desperate, half the briefcases have to contain $1 million dollars just to keep the viewer's interest. And even American Idol has looked beatable. As fresh content comes back to TV, the ratings for these reality shows will suffer further. The writers strike has gotten them to wear out their welcome.

To me shows like Saturday Night Live will prove even more lucrative to the new model. It generates both short form and long form content for the web (for example all the digital shorts) , it provides a testing ground for actors and writers (Conan O'Brien was a writer on SNL, Tina Fey a writer and performer who was able to create 30 Rock for NBC, the show has been re cut to an hour and syndicated to E!, and it creates commercial parodies, best of's and political specials that are repurposed into prime time specials. It created a DVD of its first 5 years so most likely more will come. Prior to the strike, the guest host was Brian Williams, NBC News anchor who post appearance saw the ratings for NBC News rise. Its been an effective medium to promote other shows as well. And during the strike, various shows and specials filled the prime time air. In short SNL is the golden goose to NBC. It creates original content that can be merchandized and monetized across multiple distribution points. Try doing that with Deal or No Deal!

Convergence at the Super Bowl

Big game this weekend. The Super Bowl proved just that and it wasn't all about the play on the field. It also was the chance to highlight the most creative advertising. It was the day to turn off your TIVO or your DVR. And from discussions with friends, it led to future talk around the water cooler. Even more fascinating, these same ads made their way to the web, heck Fox's broadcast reminded viewers to go to My Space to watch these ads again and again. Sites like AOL have these spots as well and ask the viewer to vote their favorite. It seems the younger audience didn't mind leaving the action of the game to immediately relive the commercial online.

Welcome to convergence, interaction, and social media all rolled up in one. Digital doesn't replace TV viewing, it augments it, it invites discussion and debate, it enables the user to relive the experience. And in its ultimate form, it will find away to circle the user right back to the TV to enjoy the experience on a big screen environment.

Strike shows fatigue factor

Writers aren't the only ones feeling the fatigue. With so little new or worthwhile to watch on TV, viewers are moving away from their favorite TV networks to find other sources for entertainment. With so little new to watch in scripted series, I find myself watching more news programming. Thank goodness for an election year for interesting dramatic programming!

When historians look back on the aftermath of this strike, I believe they will come up with the following conclusions:
1. The writers union lost more money from the strike than they would have ever earned.
2. More jobs and business were lost than incremental revenue earned. Thus the SAG, DGA, and WGA all lost business. And jobs went to more non-union businesses. (look at the latest programming deals coming out of Canada)
3. Renegotiations need to begin well before a contract expires and a strike should be viewed as the very last possible recourse.
4. The strike enabled the AMPTP to turn their business model upside down by reducing the number of pilots they commission, reducing the extravagance factor from upfronts, commissioning scripts to go right to production and airing across available broadcast and cable networks to maximize its revenue potential. The result, greater cost efficiencies.
5. The entertainment industry will see a measureable downturn in spending as fat contines to be cut and boondoggles are turned away. The strike will have effectively killed the golden goose.
6. VOD usage will become the real revenue growth through advertising and subscription.

Digital Revolution Devalues Content: Analysts

Reducing content down to its digital roots and distributing perfect copies to multiple points sure poses a challenge to the monetization process. The music business was first to feel the effects and video content producers must have been asleep at the wheel to not anticipate that it would overtake them as well. And now that the DVR is out of the box, it will be hard to contain or limit it, despite tries to disable certain trick features like fast forwarding through commercials.

Distribution models will be turned upside down as streaming enables all broadband users to access product. Established networks will be limited only by their contracts with current distribution platforms to compete effectively in this new world. License fees may see themselves replaced by subscriptions and TV may become simply a monitor in the home, attached to the web.

As companies deal with this digital slippery slope, opportunities will also arise for sites that best aggregate and recommend and find appropriate content quickly and easily. And monetization opportunities will open up as others close down - through subscription, targeted promotion, interactive, branded entertainment, product placement, and other sources on this new content platform. Cable bills may decline as broadband rates rise; some networks may fall or merge into others, and other niche networks broaden. But at the end, change is inevitable and we must take the bad with the good and maximize its potential. Their is still value to the content, it just needs to be monetized in different ways.

Social Networking - Exposing yourself

The first thing I did after reading this article was to recheck my settings and confirm my privacy settings. I like that Facebook allows me to passively interact with friends and colleagues, but I do want to control what gets released.

Privacy is a huge issue and data sharing needs to be with the user's approval. Without it, we are approaching the Orwellian world of 1984. Younger people may be more relaxed about sharing themselves and their habits, but I come from a school that is more careful about being that open. Not that I have anything to be ashamed of, but that I should be the one to determine who knows what I do. I know some folks that don't even want to put their picture on their page, preferring to use an icon or nothing at all.

As long as the data is analyzed in the aggregate and not specific to the individual, than the understandings of behaviour can be useful to research. But to share ones specific purchases, reading, or viewing behaviour is something that should remain private. Let the individual determine what is to be shared and get specific approval, else be careful of the repercussions.

Social networking has allowed us great opportunities to interact and to communicate in meaningful and frivolous ways. But it comes with many pitfalls. Facebook, My Space and all other sites need to protect the individual content from unauthorized use. Any release should require specific approval. And it should be incumbant upon the site to be proactive before legal issues arise.