Can Sirius Survive Without Howard Stern

The simple answer appears to be yes; in fact, the savings that Sirius gets by unloading Howard could offset debt and pay for alternative talent. "The company might return cash to shareholders through buybacks or dividends, Karmazin said. Such a move will become increasingly likely as Sirius XM continues to lower its debt and build cash flow, though there’s no target date for such action, he said."

Still, Howard remains a great fit for Sirius and while some audience might defect without him, investments in other alternative programming could bring in a new audience. And "Sirius XM stations, such as Raw Dog Comedy and Playboy Radio, would help retain many of Stern’s listeners if he left, he said."

Howard's contract doesn't expire till December, so there is still time for Howard Stern and Sirius to renew their vows.

No Sports For You

Cablevision and Fox are still fighting. And Cablevision customers have lost three NLCS games and Giants Football game. Unhappiness reigns.

Interesting to note that a Calevision offshoot, MSG is facing the same problem with Dish. MSG is off the air as contracts remain unsigned. And in both cases, Cablevision and MSG are requesting arbitration as the solution. PR ploy or sign of a real attempt to settle, who knows.

What I do know is that the distributor - content relationship has soured in the last few years. It has become increasingly acrimonious and what I would describe as a win - lose relationship. Each wants to win by getting the other party to lose. This strategy has a negative long term result and makes each subsequent negotiation that much worse. And frankly, it is becoming destructive to the health of the cable industry.

Fox - Cablevision Dispute Means No Baseball, No Glee

Cablevision customers missed out last night on game one of the NLCS Giants - Phillies series. Despite ongoing negotiations, neither side could agree on a new contract. And rather than think about the customer, the signal went dark. "News Corp./Fox has argued that Cablevision has focused more on getting the two parties into binding arbitration, which Fox rejects, than reaching a solution." Regardless, Cablevision customers missed Fox's Saturday Night programming.

Of the voices complaining, the one that seems silent is that of Major League Baseball. It is a key time for MLB and they should be furious that the number one market in the country lost a chance to watch their programming. Yet I have not heard or read a word from MLB voicing their dissatisfaction with this outcome.

Now there is one thing worth noting, Fox is a broadcast channel and consumers could have just as easily gone out to their local store, picked up a digital antenna, and tuned in. Yes, it is a backwards step, but it was the fastest solution. The fact that Fox ads argue to switch providers may be nice, but the time it takes to get an installer into the home to switch to another company may take at least a week. By then the negotiations will likely be resolved and Fox will be back on the air.

Should consumers still switch? Well this isn't the first time a network went dark with Cablevision. Those tired of these shenanigans may switch anyway knowing that this scenario will only play out again and again.

30 Rock Live

I loved 30 Rock Live last night. I loved it for many reasons but mostly because it took the chance. The early days of TV, the "Golden Days" as they are now fondly recalled, were all about live TV. Mistakes happened, but the adage "the show must go on" was always present. Not that anything unusual occurred, but the show had fun with it, including Tracy breaking character and a picture falling off the wall.

And the show was performed twice, once for the East Coast and again for the West Coast. Well conceived, well planned, and well executed. With inside jokes and tons of punch lines, [“Why do people do anything? Because they’re rich or they have Attention Deficit Dis — Hey! Look at Lutz’s shirt.”] 30 Rock continues to impress. And perhaps this type of stunt becomes an annual event. I hope new viewers came along for the ride; they are watching another classic on TV.

Verizon and Apple Selling The iPad

It's not the iPhone yet, but we know it is coming; the first official announcement is that an iPad through Verizon will be here shortly. "The two companies announced that Verizon Wireless will begin to sell iPads in retail stores at the end of the month. Verizon will offer three bundles, all featuring an iPad Wi-Fi model and a Verizon MiFi 2200 Intelligent Mobile Hotspot, which will allow it to operate on Verizon's 3G network." No AT&T exclusivity to worry about. No 4G yet either. But that only means next generations with better visuals and faster connections.

So Verizon gets the iPad by November and perhaps the iPhone by March. Important to have done this deal as the upcoming CES Show in January will most certainly be about the tablet and Apple will have lots of competition. Not that I think Apple is worried. As the leader in the space, their devices continue to out perform the field. Heck, Microsoft can't even compete.

I would not be surprised if the iPad is called the must have gift for the Holidays. With its ever-growing number of apps, its retail presence, and now its multiple communication platforms, the Apple iPad is poised for being more than an early adopter toy. It is becoming the must have device for the home.

Even cable operators are getting into the act, building iPad apps to turn the device into a remote for the TV. From access of all on demand content, a trove of data and art on every tv and movie show, and the ability to order and call up the program to the TV, the iPad is gaining even more traction as both an in home and out of home device.

So congrats to Verizon and Apple for finally coming together. The future for both keeps looking brighter!

Will AOL Buy Yahoo?

AOL has finally separated itself from Time Warner and been slowly, diligently, rebuilding itself into an online content powerhouse. In fact, I bet most of us visit a site that is owned by AOL. We simply don't think of AOL that way yet. We still know them as an internet service provider. Well sometimes big steps need to follow small steps and a Yahoo purchase fits that latter category. "Yahoo Inc.'s inability to snap out of a financial funk may be about to turn the embattled Internet company into a takeover target for the second time in less than three years." And the timing might be right for AOL to make that offer.

Both sides deny talks and some wonder if AOL can afford to make this purchase. Should it happen, on the surface it looks like a great fit. Would both brand names survive, I doubt it. To me, the Yahoo brand has more equity today than AOL. And AOL's content sites don't use AOL to push their positioning. Where synergies seem to exist, both companies would benefit from greater economies of scale. And the online reach could start to rival Google and others.

So is the speculation true or just an attempt to start the consideration process? Regardless, the evolution of any industry, including online, is consolidation. The big need to get bigger. The big fish swallow the small fish, and that is how the game works.

Cablevision Fox Negotiations Are Why Comcast and NBC Shouldn't Merge

In three days, Cablevision customers will either still be enjoying their Fox broadcast channel and cable nets or will find static. Just in time for MLB baseball on Fox. The ultimate loser in the negotiation is the consumer. No signal, no programming, higher license fees, higher pass through costs on the cable bill. Bad for all, but even worse, bad for Comcast and NBC.

Assuming the merger went through, how could Comcast prepare to drop a broadcast channel like Cablevision is threatening. Won't cries of unfair trade be screamed from door to door and across the legal system. Can real negotiation occur? How else can Comcast be assured they are getting the best deal? Too much pressure not to be seen as monopolistic.

The solution of having the government negotiate carriage deals for Comcast seems absurd. The government can't negotiate their own deals without overruns, misspending, and other bureaucratic bungling. Owning a major broadcast entity seems ripe for bigger problems then Comcast needs.

And what about the other side of the business, Universal Studios. As cable operators fight for shorter windows to get movies from theaters into homes ASAP, is Universal's best interest being considered. And doesn't this vertical ownership from creation to distribution remind anyone of the days when studios owned the theaters. Back then, the concern was that smaller theaters would get squeezed out of films because they weren't owned directly by the studio. For a while, laws were enacted to protect theaters from this monopolistic activity. Doesn't this merger have a similar smell?

So Cablevision and Fox will fight to the finish. Most likely, a deal WILL NOT get done till after the networks are off the air. It happened with ABC, It happened with Scripps. It seems likely it will happen again with Fox. Call it squeezing any last drop out of the negotiation, call it acrimonious. But it is now the SOP, standard operating procedure for negotiation between content and distribution. And it is the biggest issue facing the Comcast NBC Universal merger as well.

Magazines Not Dead

Don't worry friends, magazines aren't dead. In fact, the ad market is showing a bit of a rebound. "Paced by automotive and technology ads, consumer magazines posted ad-page gains of 3.6 percent in the third quarter compared to a year ago, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth for the embattled industry." A healthier economy with more jobs will increase consumer spending and increase advertising. People still read and printed media will not go away any time soon, although usage patterns are changing.

At the same time, there will continue to be a shift of reading from print to digital as an ever growing number of devices hit retail. The iPad will be sold in Walmart and Target, Kindles and other e-book readers continue to make a splash too. and online subscriptions are increasing. The Financial Times just announced some intriguing results of their subscription base, "In the five months since its launch, the (Apple iPad) app has attracted 400,000 downloads and accounts for 10% of new digital subscriptions". That is a huge percentage for such a short period of time.

These are exciting times for media with new opportunities emerging through technological changes. Embracing change and adapting to it will determine which publishers excel and which are destined to perish.

Hulu IPO Would Benefit Some

GE, Fox, and others built this online content distribution service from scratch and appear ready to hand it off to the market place with a stock offering. "Hulu is ready to raise $200 million to $300 million in a deal valuing the company at about $2 billion, and could file a prospectus with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission before the end of the year, one source said." It also is an opportunity for its owners to reduce their ownership stake by selling stock to the public, too. So is the motivation to raise more capital and deliver an exit strategy.

Hulu's latest gambit has been to add a subscription package to its service, thus adding a second revenue stream to add to its ad model. As a private company, these figures don't need to be shared; as a public company, we would also be able to peek under the velvet curtain. An early IPO would come with the explanation that since the subscription service is new, a slow start could be easily explained. At the same time, investors would be able to quantify their ownership and perhaps even reduce their level of holdings. And if the Hulu model is shaky, a good time to take the money and run.

Will Hulu be a profitable company? Or is this IPO an opportunity to cash out their investment and play with just house money? Just wondering.