Chrysler Shifts Ads to Sports, Web as Writers Strike

Now if the AMPTP have a reason to worry, it might just be that the writers strike will be the tipping point to monies leaving TV for new media. Automobile advertising is one of the largest segment of ad dollars for broadcast, cable, and spot sales. As interesting and compelling programming stops being produced, the viewer seeks out fresh alternatives and the ad money follows. In the case for autos, opportunities exist on new video sites like NextNewNetworks niche channel Fast Lane Daily, as well as dozens of other websites. Opportunities also exist on VOD; networks like Lifeskool (formerly MagRack) have niche channels like Auto Access, a perfect "new" place to target ad dollars.

So television appears to lose from the writers strike and new media appears to gain. In reality, as far as the AMPTP is concerned, it may simply be shifting dollars, lost from one pocket but added to another. These same corporations tend to be equally as diversified, with their assets spread across new media. CBS as an example owns Wallstrip, and has just moved their host, Lindsay Cambell to a new video website, moblogic. Time Warner offers automobile programming on demand across their cable systems. So these conglomerates simply have to push their ad sales groups harder to take these ad dollars. And with deep pockets, they can handle the loss of revenue knowing that their costs are being cut too. Web divisions tend to need fewer people to operate so the margins may be able to grow at a faster rate.

Yes, the entertainment landscape is changing, but the big fish stay big for a reason. They can manage through the shift and maintain their strength in the long run.

Apple announcements at Macworld

With CES done till next year, attention turns to Macworld and to what Apple's next big announcement will be. Apple continues to demonstrate that it understands the new media world and the connection between useful software and ergonomically attractive hardware. And while they have had a few misses like Apple TV, the iPhone, the mac, even the use of intel chips have made Steve Jobs more right than wrong.

The rumors swirl around the introduction of a rental app to iTune, a more improved Apple TV, smaller versions of existing products and who knows what else. For me, I'd love to hear a Tivo or slingbox partnership, the iPhone screen on the large mac desktops and books, and more communication innovations - wimax. it will certainly be fascinating this week to hear which rumors are indeed true and which are simply wishes. But as it has been seen, Steve Jobs sure knows how to make wishes come true.

ABC Studios Axes Writer-Producers

So it appears the writers strike has allowed producers to exercise the force majeure clause in their production agreements and cancel certain deals. It has been the producers who left the negotiation table so it seems fairly obvious that their reluctance to return was to allow them to get out of these agreements. And while revenues have been hit hard by the strike, costs have been reduced dramatically too so that the net profits may not be too bad for the producers. Unfortunately at a real cost to the economy and to innocent parties who work in the industry but not on either side of the disagreement.

Tonight's Golden Globes demonstrates that it is having a toll. It is now being called an "announcement" and billed as a news event, open to all media, and not an exclusive presentation on NBC. Ratings are bound to suffer too. And while losing the Globes will impact movie and TV promotion as well, the real hurt to the industry may come at the end of February should the strike not be settled in time for the Oscars telecast. I am not sure it can survive as an "announcement" and may be best delayed till all issues are resolved and the sides go back to work.

There appears to be so much bitterness between both sides that I hope that the DGA can create a deal that is satisfactory to the WGA. While they most likely won't be able to negotiate all the open issues, it would take some of the most contentious off the table. And now that the studios can "force majeure" their way out of their bad deals and have their clean slate, perhaps they will also be willing to come back to the table with the WGA once the DGA is settled.

And to everyone in new media; this is the opportunity to create compelling original content and push its value to the masses as an alternative to the low cost junk on TV being presented as entertainment on Broadcast TV. When the ad dollar starts to leave because the viewer has also left, the real impact will be felt.

Why The Strike Hasn't Helped Web Video

I was finding it hard to believe that the writers strike was immediately having an impact on web video and this article seems to confirm my suspicions. At least in the short run, there has still been "new" programming on TV, broadcast and cable, and with late night shows back on, plenty to watch. In fact, the broadcasters are all going to great lengths to promote their night's programming as "new" or "premier".

I also find it hard to believe after watching The Daily Show this week that it isn't still being written. It comes off too polished and produced and some ad libs seem scripted. Is Jon Stewart, like Jay Leno, bucking the guild by writing? I doubt the viewer can tell the difference.

The effect of the writers strike should be felt more directly should the Oscars not get a waiver. Once March comes, it appears the inventory of original series begins to dry up and the viewer is faced with alternate viewing choices. But come primetime, I suspect that one shouldn't look at an increase at web video, but at a significant increase in VOD usage. I expect that the cable companies will report statistical increases in usage that just might cause significant latency or even drops in service, when the system can't handle the high demand.

Cable-TV Industry Girds for New Threats

While I understand the average consumer's frustration with the high perceived cost of cable television, its growth is due as well to the high demand of the viewer. The audience found an appetite for more programming and kept asking for more to come; every niche was offered from multiple childrens channels to animals, from re-runs of classic tv shows to skewed programming for every demographic and psychographic - women, men, gay, teen, baby - every niche has at least one channel or more devoted to it. We stopped being satisified with general programming from the three "broad"casting networks (which also grew from ABC, NBC and CBS to include Fox, UPN, and WB - luckily UPN and WB have combined).

And as channels needed money to grow, they looked at two revenue streams, advertising and license fees. And both the number of ads per hour and the size of the license fees grew. Revenues increased. The viewers bought the products being pitched and they paid the cable companies who payed the cable networks to provide more programs.

So this article talks about one type viewer, and perhaps other viewers like him, who may have finally hit the wall. Viewers want more content, but don't want to watch all the ads and don't want to pay for cable tv. Tivo came to the rescue to save us from ads interrupting shows and the internet to save us from cable bills.

Maybe the industry is somewhat to blame for going to the well too often, sometimes there seems to be more ads than program, but it is unlikely that the broadband/cable provider is likely to let the viewer get out of paying their cable bill without upping the cost of broadband to cover itself. And networks are unlikely to provide a complete stream of programming exclusively to the web without getting their license fee paid to them as well. There is too much revenue out there today being generated by cable television to expect its downfall from broadband. The viewer will continue to pay more and new ways will be discovered to get the ad message noticed.

Comcast Unveils Fancast Video and Film Finder

Fancast seems to become Comcast's device to create an aggregator type portal for all web content. still, the bigger opportunity is in the potential to take Fancast to the next level. Build a successful site on the web and then offer to bring Fancast directly to the TV set. That to me is the big hook that Fancast can bring to these content providers, the extra hook to want and be accessed within Fancast. But this partnership is not without a cost, either a piece of the CPM revenue that hit generated or a percentage of the ad inventory as a window inside of Fancast.

Given the economic challenges facing the cable industry, cable companies need to find new revenue streams to appease their shareholders. The challenge for Comcast is to build enough brand interest and value in the Fancast name that it becomes the search choice of users. Second, create compelling deals with content owners with the added bonus of potential reach through the TV screen as well as the web.

The question to content owners becomes whether this opportunity is real and cheaper to do now while it is still unknown, or not to partner with Fancast and wait and see how this aggregator grows. Obviously, should it prove successful for Comcast in terms of reaching a large audience, the costs to come in later will also be higher. The way consumers will choose to access web based info, the competition among aggregators of like interests, and the merging of TV to the web is what keeps us up at night. Companies like Comcast are hard at work to maximize the value of their pipeline for cable, phone, information, entertainment, and other types of communication needs.

Comcast: Cable industry to standardize network in '08

Open platform. Certainly learning from the examples already set in the market, how open platforms expands opportunities rather than restricts change.

Let the TV do the work of the cable settop. Yes. the simplicity of one remote to navigate. Make the tv screen smart and put the guts inside makes me hope that on the plus side, the tv starts to act and work like a computer, allows wireless communication, syncs with the web and multiple applications, and creates a more user friendly experience on the big screen.

I only hope that the capabilities of the settop box are offerred without the inconvenience. Over the last year, I must have replaced our settop box 5-6 times. Most of the problem was in the DVR so I hope that as this new TV is created, the opportunity to switch out pieces that fail can easily be made. Otherwise, the TV will be a piece of wall hanging without functionality. Let the TV control other pieces of equipment hidden underneath. Let plug and play be the model for this open source, and let quality of manufacturing be enabled to reduce the dreaded service call to repair or replace.

I applaud Comcast's decision and look forward to seeing it become a reality.

Convergence of print and technology

A recent discussion a friend and I had involved around industrial change leading to the erosion of one industry while sparking the growth of the other. He noted that Alan Greenspan called this "creative destruction". And examples abound including train to plane, the horse drawn carriage to the automobile, radio to TV, even the wired phone to wireless.

So looking at new products like Kindle and the iPhone, the thought comes when will technology change so much that our preference will be to prefer the video screen over the newspaper. I still recall how my decision to find movie times switched from looking it up in the paper to going on-line; at some point, the PC was on full time, the boot up was faster, and the time it took to look up movie locations and times was faster on the internet.

As screens get slimmer and better quality, and perhaps are made of materials that can fold out, we will find ourselves moving away from the printed page completely and onto these wireless devices to effortlessly read and enjoy content. Technology will become tactically preferable that will will take it over newsprint. No more black ink on our fingers; future generations won't understand this phenomenon. Like when photocopying replaced mimeograph and we no longer smelled the ink of the paper when these sheets were passed out in school. And this change has repercussions. Paper manufacturing, production, and distribution are effected and jobs are lost. Certainly the environment improves with less trees to cut down, but newspaper and magazine stands need to morph into something else.

Kindle and the iPhone seem to represent the first generation of this opportunity. Wireless download of content, ease of use, and readability. It can only get better. As consumers, we thrive on new content and so jobs will be created to write and film and produce and distribute. Newspapers and magazines can bring us print and video content to our individual screens; brand, integrity, credibility still matter. Programming and marketing across multiple media to create demand and desire. And so Fox buys the Wall Street Journal and NBC takes Access Hollywood onto the web. Convergence abounds. It is necessary to stake a claim on multiple fronts. The print and TV world is changing and those companies that are placing their mark across all platforms have the greatest chance to remain strong.

Letterman Kvetches, Leno Gets By

I am not surprised to learn that Leno had better ratings than Letterman on the first night back. Nor am I surprised that boths shows enjoyed ratings above previous levels prior to the strike. Fresh is better than repeats. And most people prefer to watch a train wreck than good news and the return of late night shows without writers could deliver interesting, unscripted surprises. At the same time, these shows, like the soon to return Colbert Report and Daily Show, also need to stay current and fresh every day. Viewership will quickly move to Letterman as his guests get better and theirs get worse.

And what is all the fighting about...the internet. if the content isn't fresh or interesting, it will not get downloaded either. Letterman's marketing team needs to continue to push that their show is fresher by not being afraid to share their clips across the web. How can Letterman win: Stay topical, political, with "A" guests, and promote the heck out of it across the web. Over short time, watch how the ratings trend changes and Letterman succeeds!