Comcast: Cable industry to standardize network in '08

Open platform. Certainly learning from the examples already set in the market, how open platforms expands opportunities rather than restricts change.

Let the TV do the work of the cable settop. Yes. the simplicity of one remote to navigate. Make the tv screen smart and put the guts inside makes me hope that on the plus side, the tv starts to act and work like a computer, allows wireless communication, syncs with the web and multiple applications, and creates a more user friendly experience on the big screen.

I only hope that the capabilities of the settop box are offerred without the inconvenience. Over the last year, I must have replaced our settop box 5-6 times. Most of the problem was in the DVR so I hope that as this new TV is created, the opportunity to switch out pieces that fail can easily be made. Otherwise, the TV will be a piece of wall hanging without functionality. Let the TV control other pieces of equipment hidden underneath. Let plug and play be the model for this open source, and let quality of manufacturing be enabled to reduce the dreaded service call to repair or replace.

I applaud Comcast's decision and look forward to seeing it become a reality.

Convergence of print and technology

A recent discussion a friend and I had involved around industrial change leading to the erosion of one industry while sparking the growth of the other. He noted that Alan Greenspan called this "creative destruction". And examples abound including train to plane, the horse drawn carriage to the automobile, radio to TV, even the wired phone to wireless.

So looking at new products like Kindle and the iPhone, the thought comes when will technology change so much that our preference will be to prefer the video screen over the newspaper. I still recall how my decision to find movie times switched from looking it up in the paper to going on-line; at some point, the PC was on full time, the boot up was faster, and the time it took to look up movie locations and times was faster on the internet.

As screens get slimmer and better quality, and perhaps are made of materials that can fold out, we will find ourselves moving away from the printed page completely and onto these wireless devices to effortlessly read and enjoy content. Technology will become tactically preferable that will will take it over newsprint. No more black ink on our fingers; future generations won't understand this phenomenon. Like when photocopying replaced mimeograph and we no longer smelled the ink of the paper when these sheets were passed out in school. And this change has repercussions. Paper manufacturing, production, and distribution are effected and jobs are lost. Certainly the environment improves with less trees to cut down, but newspaper and magazine stands need to morph into something else.

Kindle and the iPhone seem to represent the first generation of this opportunity. Wireless download of content, ease of use, and readability. It can only get better. As consumers, we thrive on new content and so jobs will be created to write and film and produce and distribute. Newspapers and magazines can bring us print and video content to our individual screens; brand, integrity, credibility still matter. Programming and marketing across multiple media to create demand and desire. And so Fox buys the Wall Street Journal and NBC takes Access Hollywood onto the web. Convergence abounds. It is necessary to stake a claim on multiple fronts. The print and TV world is changing and those companies that are placing their mark across all platforms have the greatest chance to remain strong.

Letterman Kvetches, Leno Gets By

I am not surprised to learn that Leno had better ratings than Letterman on the first night back. Nor am I surprised that boths shows enjoyed ratings above previous levels prior to the strike. Fresh is better than repeats. And most people prefer to watch a train wreck than good news and the return of late night shows without writers could deliver interesting, unscripted surprises. At the same time, these shows, like the soon to return Colbert Report and Daily Show, also need to stay current and fresh every day. Viewership will quickly move to Letterman as his guests get better and theirs get worse.

And what is all the fighting about...the internet. if the content isn't fresh or interesting, it will not get downloaded either. Letterman's marketing team needs to continue to push that their show is fresher by not being afraid to share their clips across the web. How can Letterman win: Stay topical, political, with "A" guests, and promote the heck out of it across the web. Over short time, watch how the ratings trend changes and Letterman succeeds!

Multimedia - means multiple media

As we all wonder what new media means, the truth is that old media will not completely pass away. Radio did not die when TV emerged; movie theaters did not stop attracting patrons when HBO and Showtime offered movies on TV. And linear TV will not die because of the internet and streaming media. Movie theaters, Newspapers, magazines, radio, and tv all will survive if the content is compelling. But that also means adapting to change. Movie theaters add 3D, newspapers and magazines add compelling content and look at new distribution opportunities like Kindle, and tv prospers with good content and VOD. The internet allows more choice, and more flexibility, but it doesn't necessarily erase the old media's value. The key is to find the synergies, to allow one piece to support and enhance the other. Each asset can provide its own unique advantage, and technology can make it quicker, faster, sharper, and smarter. Embrace change, be willing to see the opportunity through the challenge and see how the pieces can actually fit well together, and not necessarily as separate and distinct.

The Potential of the Cable Box

As I look at the cable tv industry as we enter 2008, I look closely at my and my family's own viewing habits. We have not yet upgraded to the HDTV screen, but I look forward to the day. At the same time, I wonder, how much viewing time to I get and how much do my children. I believe they watch 80% to my meager 20% on the family tv, while the bedroom tv is clearly 50/50 split with my wife, a minute fraction should the kids enter the room.

So how are these screens being used. Our DVR and VOD viewing is up dramatically from a year ago. And while pc viewing is also up, the clear preference is to watch on the larger screens. Also up is gaming, on both the pc and the tv. The Wii and playstation are active components, along with the DVD player, although its use has now declined in favor of the immediacy of on demand.

So as VOD has affected DVD usage, why shouldn't cable look to affect third party boxes with gaming. Why shouldn't the cable box allow more wireless activity to a gaming device with the added advantage of renting or buying an interactive game. The potential of the cable box to do more, even if it simply interconnects to third party devices, means the opportunity to sell gaming through the pipe and create another revenue stream. Gaming is not going away; cable should enable and simplify the retail purchase. We as consumers seek immediacy; that is why we prefer on demand to going to Blockbusters. Downloading Wii games through the cable box into the Wii player...priceless.

Web Playgrounds of the Very Young

Club Penguin, Webkinz, et al... social networking is starting young and making them web conscious and comfortable. And while Webkinz at least gives you a tangible return in the form of a stuffed animal, Club Penguin believes in the subscription model. Can we as parents and adults trust that the advertising won't kill the golden goose. How can we as parents control the web while allowing our children to become most comfortable with its potential. As my five year old "surfs", she begins to get more computer literate, learning more about Barbie's world and the Nick universe. At the same time, I worry that the ad message becomes so strong that she gets crazy asking for more Barbie stuff. My biggest concern remains the interactive issue; will she realize that she might be a click away from buying something, and I am not close enough to stop it. Is it truly smart marketing to focus the ad message on the under 9 crowd.

My son is 8 and also a fan of the web although his Nintendo DS takes up enough of his time. We purchased a 3 month membership on Club Penguin and while he occasionally goes to the site, when his membership expires, I am not sure I will be quick to renew. One there are too many other sites that offer content for free, two, he is not that active on the site, and three, if I said he could renew but it would come out of his allowance, I am not sure he would want to continue. Kids attention spans are short and this particular playground, while unique today, may not be at the same interest level in a year. Wii, Nintendo, Playstation, and the future of interactive TV could change the level of interest quickly. As an adult, I like the games that are more cooperative than combative, but more so, the games that are played with someone else, rather than alone. Social interaction over the web is nice for now, but I prefer when the real friends come over to play.

Where Have all the Newspapers Gone?

Just an amazing article in this weekends WSJ that highlights the rise and fall of newspapers. Success came to those that saw diversification and change and recognized new opportunities. Those that held on to old beliefs couldn't adapt. An interesting perspective on the change in reading habits from the evening paper to the morning news, the Walter Cronkite effect and the new readership in the morning with the addition of more female users. Ultimately, expense accounts get slashed as owners seek to improve the bottom line, no longer is first class travel acceptable, and soon the leak becomes a downpour as revenues drop as well. Reading habits continually change and the successful entrepreneurs look ahead to the new paths. Read Paul Steiger's entire article. Well written and eye opening.

The cable industry should pay heed to this industrial change. It too must adapt to technological change as video streaming changes how users receive their content. The cable line-up may simply fade away as the user ultimately decides how, where and when to receive its content. The cable pipeline may become measured in usage as customers stop buying separate cable packaging to make their pc their TV screen.

Video Aggregators - Does You Tube Survive?

When Google realized it couldn't beat You Tube, it felt it had to buy them out. The You Tube phenomenon has become so big, that this year NBC chose to remove its content and bring it in house. NBC and Fox created HULU to showcase their content, while Time Warner and CBS have partnered with VEOH and Viacom with JOOST. Each content provider wants to retain their control and while I see the ad revenue opportunity of long form programming, the short clips seem more valuable as a promotional tool. Wouldn't it be in the content owners best interest to allow You Tube to show clips provided that the clips were from the source and not user generated and were tagged in a way to communicate the linear show and the long form availability on their own platforms. Can't You Tube become more a platform to expand the value of HULU, JOOST, VEOH and others.

It doesn't seem that You Tube will lose its luster. In fact it can become the search engine to support the business. Of final note, these same content owners are not helping these new businesses to grow when the writers strike has stopped more original content from launching on TV and the web. The strike needs to be settled for these sites to grow. For now, no more new Office clips or SNL digital shorts. If the content isn't there, the user will go elsewhere. And while HULU offering Alfred Hitchcock Presents is nice; if viewers weren't watching when it was on TV Land, why should they watch on HULU.

Report Puts Another Digit On TV Writers Strike, But Main Issue Is Digital

Bear Stearns reports that the writers ask is negligible but that the producers are more concerned by the impact on future negotiations with the other parties - SAG, DGA, etc. "The potentially small financial impact suggests that studios (Alliance of Motion Pictures and Television Producers) are more concerned about setting a precedent in new-media revenue sharing." And while there has been no movement for the two sides to get together again and restart negotiations, the viewer is left to watch leftovers. Obviously this programming has lower costs attached, but it most likely comes with less viewers also. And this programming may be a short term bandaid but will hurt more when the program pipeline is empty in the Fall.

There are two main issues: "Even with residuals from online streaming and paid downloads at the top of the writers' agenda, there's another issue. Bear Stearns notes that the studios (AMPTP) fiercely oppose. The WGA wants to expand its membership to include writers for reality series, hoping to gain bargaining power."

This strike is approaching its 8th week. I am fascinated to see what the late night talk shows will look like without writers. Jon Stewart and Stephen Colbert especially will be most interesting to watch; that they are required to come back but rely on their writers for provocative content - what they do the first night will demonstrate which side of the fence they stand. I'm hoping for a frank expression of the facts followed by boring interviews to fill the time and contractual obligation.

At the end of the day there are no winners, only losers.